• Gold price returns to the red early Thursday as US Dollar pauses decline alongside US Treasury bond yields. 
• Bear Cross and bearish RSI on the daily chart continue to favor Gold sellers.
• Gold price remains subject to intense volatility due to Thanksgiving Day holiday-led thin liquidity.

Gold price reverts toward the weekly low of $2,605 in Asian trading on Thanksgiving Thursday, snapping a two-day recovery. The US Dollar (USD) and the US Treasury bond yields breathe a sigh of relief, exerting downward pressure on the Gold price amid holiday-thinned trading conditions.  

Gold sellers fight back control

Following a profit-taking decline so far this week, the USD appears to have regained its footing, even though the uptick in US Treasury bond yields seems temporary amid uncertainty over the implications of US President-elect Donald Trump’s tariff plans on economic prospects and the Federal Reserve’s (Fed) interest rate outlook.

Markets witness renewed jitters amid a tech sell-off on Asian indices following fresh reports that the US is expected to announce another set of measures on Monday to restrain China’s ability to develop advanced artificial intelligence (AI).

The fresh risk-aversion wave aids the US Dollar rebound, especially after traders cashed in on their USD longs earlier this week, closing out their positions heading into the Thanksgiving holiday break.

Gold price also suffers in the face of a ceasefire between Israel and the Lebanon-based militant group Hezbollah on Wednesday.

Growing trade war fears, however, could cushion the downside in the traditional safe-haven Gold price. Further, sustained expectations that the Fed will lower rates by 15 basis points (bps) next month lend support to Gold optimists.

The CME Group’s FedWatch Tool shows that markets now price in about 68% of a December Fed rate cut, up from 62% before the release of the US Personal Consumption Expenditure (PCE) Price Index data on Wednesday.

The Fed’s preferred inflation gauge, the core PCE Price Index, increased at 0.3% on a monthly basis and an annual reading of 2.8%, aligning with market expectations.

Looking ahead, volatility around Gold price could remain high, given thin liquidity as US traders are away on account of Thanksgiving Day. Therefore, exaggerated price action in Gold cannot be ruled out.

That said, traders will pay close attention to any headlines concerning trade globally, which could significantly impact risk sentiment and the USD-sensitive Gold price.

Gold price technical analysis: Daily chart

Technically, the bearish bias remains intact for Gold price as a Bear Cross is in play and the 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) points lower below the 50 level, currently near 46.

The 21-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) closed below the 50-day SMA on Tuesday, confirming the Bear Cross.

The immediate support is at the weekly low of $2,605, below which a drop toward the 100-day SMA at $2,571 cannot be ruled out.  

A sustained break below that level is needed to take on the November 14 low of $2,537.

Conversely, Gold buyers must find acceptance above the 21-day SMA at $2,654 to initiate a fresh recovery.

The next relevant upside targets are at the 50-day SMA at $2,669 and the $2,700 level.

Second Sharp Selloff Since Top

Judging by the bearish reaction following the new trend high of 3.56 last Friday, resistance was seen near the top trendline of a parallel trend channel. The channel shows price symmetry, which can be seen with the rising dashed center line that is drawn up the middle of the channel. Once one end of the symmetrical pattern is hit and price reverses, the other end of the pattern becomes a target.

Given the decisive nature of today’s drop, it looks like there is a good chance that lower targets may be tested. For gold, that would be indicated on a test of support around the lower channel line and 20-Day MA. Since the 20-Day MA (purple), another trend indicator, has converged with the bottom channel line, it can be used as a proxy for the line. Currently, it is at 2.95.

Interim Support Levels

Nonetheless, there are other price areas to watch on the way down. Either may see signs of support. Next in line is the 3.16 swing high from June. The 3.02 swing high follows a little lower. It is a potentially significant price area as it signaled the recent bull breakout on November 20. A successful test of support around the 20-Day MA would realign the gold trend and keep it at a more sustainable slope. It is also interesting to note that potential support from the top downtrend line also converges around the 20-Day MA price level.

Bull Triangle Breakout is Dominant Pattern

A deeper retracement from last week’s 3.45 peak would be healthy for the market and help squeeze out some speculation. On November 20 natural gas broke out of a large bullish symmetrical triangle pattern. As with any breakout, a pullback to test prior resistance as support is normal behavior. Once a counter-trend decline completes, the larger and more powerful bullish pattern should be ready to proceed.

For a look at all of today’s economic events, check out our economic calendar.

XAU/USD Current price: $2,639.36

• United States data played against safe-haven demand.
• US Dollar’s broad weakness limits XAU/USD slide in the near term.
• XAU/USD is at risk of falling despite advancing for a second consecutive day.

Spot Gold is up on Wednesday after a bundle of  United States (US) macroeconomic data ended up weighing on the US Dollar(USD), albeit modestly. The USD came under modest selling pressure previous to the news, helping XAU/USD reach an intraday high of $2,658.11 during European trading hours. After the dust settled, the Greenback is showing only partial strength against the bright metal.

The country published the second estimate of the Q3 Gross Domestic Product (GDP), which was upwardly revised quarter over quarter (QoQ) to 1.9% from 1.8%. Initial Jobless Claims for the week ended November 22 improved to 213K from the previous 215K, also beating expectations of 217K.

Durable Goods Orders, in the meantime, rose a modest 0.2% in October, worse than the 0.5% advance anticipated but better than the -0.4% posted in September. Finally, the October Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index rose 0.2% MoM and 2.3% YoY as expected. The core annual figure increased by 2.8% YoY, also meeting the market’s forecast.

 The figures had no actual impact on upcoming Federal Reserve’s (Fed) decisions, with the central bank on its way to trim interest rates by 25 bps in December. Yet, at the same time, the numbers show that the economy is doing relatively well. There is no recession in sight, unemployment is near healthy levels, and inflation is close to the Fed’s goal.

XAU/USD short-term technical outlook

The daily for XAU/USD shows it currently hovers around $2,640, up for a second consecutive day. The risk, however, skews to the downside. Sellers rejected buyers around a bearish 20 Simple Moving Average (SMA), while technical indicators remain within negative levels, with neutral-to-bearish slopes. The 100 and 200 SMAs, in the meantime, keep heading higher below the current level, with the 100 SMA providing dynamic support at around $2,568.40.

In the near term, and according to the 4-hour chart, bears are also in control. The pair met sellers around a bearish 20 SMA and is currently below an also bearish 100 SMA. Technical indicators, in the meantime, retreated sharply after failing to overcome their midlines, in line with another leg south, particularly if XAU/USD extends its slide below the $2,626 area.

Support levels: 2,626.70 2,611.35 2,598.70  

Resistance levels: 2,643.30 2,655.00 2,671.55

• Silver price oscillates around $30.50 as the focus shifts to US PCE inflation data for October.
• The US Dollar refreshes weekly low ahead of the US PCE inflation data release.
• The safe-haven appeal of the Silver price weakens as the ceasefire between Israel and Iran comes into effect.

Silver price (XAG/USD) exhibits indecisiveness near $30.50 in Wednesday’s European session, with investors focusing on the United States (US) Personal Consumption Expenditure Price Index (PCE) data for October, which will be published at 15:00 GMT.

Investors await the US PCE inflation data to get more insights about the Federal Reserve’s (Fed) interest rate action in the December meeting. The possibility for the Fed to cut interest rates by 25 basis points (bps) to 4.25%-4.50% next month has increased to 66% from 56% a week ago, according to the CME FedWatch tool.

Investors will pay close attention to the core PCE inflation data – which excludes volatile food and energy prices – as it is the Fed’s preferred inflation gauge. Economists expect the annual core PCE inflation to have accelerated to 2.8% from 2.7% in September, with monthly figures growing steadily by 0.3%.

The Silver price remains well-supported above $30.00 from the past two trading sessions amid a correction in the US Dollar (USD). The US Dollar Index (DXY), which tracks the Greenback’s value against six major currencies, posts a fresh weekly low near 106.50.

However, the bias towards the Silver price remains downbeat as its safe-haven demand has diminished on initiation of a ceasefire between Israel and Iran.

It began at 02:00 GMT on Wednesday, putting an at least temporary end to nearly 14 months of conflict between Israel and the Iran-backed militant group, according to BBC News.

Silver technical analysis

Silver price resumes its declining trend after a mean-reversion move to near the 20-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) around $31.40. The white metal is expected to retreat to the November 14 low of around $29.70. The white metal weakened after the breakdown of the horizontal support plotted from the May 21 high of $32.50.

The upward-sloping trendline from the February 29 low of $22.30 will act as key support for the Silver price around $29.50.

The 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) oscillates in the 40.00-60.00 range, suggesting a sideways trend.

Silver daily chart

• Gold price looks to build on the previous recovery toward $2,650 early Wednesday.  
• Bear Cross and bearish RSI on the daily chart continue to caution Gold buyers.
• The Gold price recovery hinges on the US data, including the PCE inflation.

Gold price stays on the front foot in Asian trading on Wednesday, looking to extend the previous recovery from six-day lows of $2,605. Traders gear up for a slew of top-tier US economic data releases heading into the Thanksgiving holiday season.

Gold buyers await US PCE inflation data 

Early Wednesday, the persistent weakness surrounding the US Dollar (USD) and the US Treasury bond yields offset easing geopolitical tensions between Israel and Lebanon, allowing Gold buyers to come up for air for the second day.

The sentiment around the US Dollar remains undermined following US President-elect Donald Trump’s selection of Scott Bessent as Treasury Secretary.  Bessent, a fiscal conservative, assured the US bond markets, spelling doom for the US Treasury bond yields and eventually for the USD.

A ceasefire between Israel and Lebanon helped reduce the haven demand for the Greenback, exerting additional downward pressure even though the Minutes of the US Federal Reserve  (Fed )November meeting showed that officials were divided on further rate cuts.

Reuters reported, “a ceasefire between Israel and Iran-backed group Hezbollah came into effect at 0200 GMT on Wednesday after U.S. President Joe Biden said both sides accepted an agreement brokered by the United States and France.”

Meanwhile, markets continue to price in over 60% probability of the Fed lowering interest rates by 25 bps next month, according to the CME Group’s FedWatch Tool, despite a less dovish Fed Minutes.

Therefore, the Gold price remains supported amid sustained dovish Fed expectations and uncertainty surrounding global trade prospects during Donald Trump’s presidency. This is especially true after he announced 25% tariffs on goods imported from the US into Canada and Mexico on Tuesday. At the same time, he slapped 10% additional tariffs on US imports into China.

Hong Kong Census and Statistics Department data showed on Tuesday that China’s net gold imports via Hong Kong in October fell from September and were down 43% from the previous year. Traders digest the data as attention turns toward the upcoming US macro news, with the Core Personal Consumption Expenditure (PCE) Price Index in focus.

The Fed’s preferred inflation gauge and the weekly Jobless Claims will help shape market expectations for future Fed rate cuts, impacting the USD and the non-interest-bearing Gold price. The core PCE Price Index is rising 2.8% YoY in October versus September’s rise of 2.7%. Meanwhile, the headline annual PCE inflation is expected to advance to 2.3% in the same period from 2.1% in September.

Gold price technical analysis: Daily chart

Hotter-than-expected US inflation data could raise further doubts about the Fed’s rate cut trajectory, reinforcing selling pressure around the Gold price.

The 21-day SMA crossed the 50-day SMA from above on a daily closing basis on Tuesday, confirming a Bear Cross.

Adding credence to the downside potential, the 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) remains below the 50 level, currently near 47.

Therefore, any upside attempts in Gold price could likely be sold into unless buyers find acceptance above the 21-day SMA and 50-day SMA crossover near $2,660.

The next topside barriers are at the $2,700 level and Monday’s high of $2,721.

Alternatively, the immediate support is at the previous day’s low of $2,605, below which a drop toward the 100-day SMA at $2,569 remains in the offing.

A sustained break below that level could challenge the November 14 low of $2,537.

• Silver price appreciates as daily chart analysis suggests a possible momentum shift from bearish to bullish.
• The primary resistance would be found at a nine-day EMA at $30.76.
• The pair may navigate the area around the throwback support at the psychological level of $30.00.

Silver price (XAG/USD) remains steady near $30.50 per troy ounce during the Asian hours on Wednesday. The daily chart analysis suggests a possible shift in momentum from bearish to bullish as the pair has been tracking down along the upper boundary of the descending channel pattern.

However, the 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) is currently positioned below the 50 level, indicating a prevailing bearish sentiment. Additionally, the XAG/USD pair remains below the 14- and nine-day Exponential Moving Averages (EMA), signaling a bearish outlook and indicating weakening short-term price momentum. This suggests weak buying interest and the potential for further price losses.

In terms of the upside, if the Silver price successfully breaches the key resistance zone near the upper boundary of the descending channel, the asset price would further test the nine-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) at $30.76, followed by the 14-day EMA at $30.96.

On the downside, the Silver price may find support around its “throwback support” at the psychological level of $30.00. A break below this level could deepen bearish sentiment, potentially driving the price lower toward its three-month low of $27.69, followed by the descending channel’s lower boundary at $28.50.

XAG/USD: Daily Chart

Decisive Drop Below 66.86 is Bearish

A decisive decline below the bottom of the pattern at 66.86 may lead to a quick bullish reversal, as has been seen in the last two new swing lows, one in November and one in October. Or a decline to the September swing low of 65.65 tests support and the bottom of a downtrend price structure. That swing low was the lowest traded price for crude oil since early-May 2023. The May 2023 swing low of 63.67 anchors the next lower potential support zone along with the long-term downtrend line. The trendline begins from the 2008 peak of 147.08.

New Swing High is Key Pivot at 72.79

Last week’s lower swing high provides a new resistance level to consider for signs of strength. The top of the box is 73.27. However, last week’s high of 72.79 establishes a key lower pivot level as a rise above it would break a short-term pattern of lower swing highs and lower swing lows. In addition, crude would already have shown strength by reclaiming both the 20-Day and 50-Day MAs by then.

If the 71.79 price level can be reclaimed, and it is followed by further strength, the chance to break out through the top of the box improves. Given that trading continues below resistance at the bottom boundary line of the symmetrical triangle pattern, the 61.8% retracement level at 74.60 may be reached before encountering signs of resistance around the line.

Upside Breakout Heads to 74.60

If crude can reclaim the recent swing high, it will provide one signal for a bullish reversal. The bullish reversal would then be further confirmed on a rise above the 73.15 swing high, which is also the top of recent consolidation. If that happens then there is a possibility that demand will rise enough to improve the chance of rising above the bottom boundary line resistance. That could lead to a completion of a 78.6% retracement at 76.58, and possibly the 200-Day MA at 77.18.

For a look at all of today’s economic events, check out our economic calendar.

XAU/USD Current price: $2,627.47

• Financial markets turned risk-averse amid comments from US President-elect Donald Trump.
• The United States will publish multiple first-tier figures on Wednesday ahead of the Thanksgiving holiday.
• XAU/USD consolidates below $2,630, and technical readings favor another leg south.

Spot Gold trades uneventfully on Tuesday, confined to a tight range just below $2,630 a troy ounce. The market sentiment soured at the beginning of the day following comments from United States (US) President-elect Donald Trump. Trump threatened to impose tariffs of up to 25% on all products entering from Canada and Mexico and an additional 10% tariff on goods from China in posts on his Truth Social site.

Demand for safe-haven assets remained subdued throughout the first half of the day despite the dismal mood, keeping XAU/USD ranging. Wall Street’s opening, however, brought a fresh bout of US Dollar buying.

US data was mixed. On the one hand, the CB Consumer Confidence Index rose in November to 111.7, slightly below the 111.8 expected, while improving from 109.6 in October.  The Present Situation Index increased to 140.9, while the Expectations Index ticked up to 92.3, well above the threshold of 80 that usually signals a recession ahead. New Home Sales, however, fell 17.3% in October, while the November Richmond Fed Manufacturing Index printed at -14, matching the previous reading and worse than the -10 anticipated by market players.

Wednesday will be a pretty busy day, as US markets will be closed on Thursday amid the Thanksgiving Holiday. The country will publish the Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index, the Federal Reserve (Fed) favorite inflation gauge, a revision of the Q3 Gross Domestic Product (GDP) and weekly employment figures, among other minor reports.

XAU/USD short-term technical outlook

The daily chart for the XAU/USD pair shows it hovers around its daily opening, with the risk still skewed to the downside. The pair posted a lower high and a lower low, while a bearish 20 Simple Moving Average (SMA) keeps heading south, providing dynamic resistance at around $2,662.00. Technical indicators, in the meantime, post uneven advances within negative levels, suggesting limited buying interest. Finally, a bullish 100 SMA keeps providing support at around $2,565.70.

In the near term, and according to the 4-hour chart, XAU/USD is bearish. The pair develops below all its moving averages, with the 20 and 100 SMAs gaining downward traction. Finally, technical indicators resumed their slides within negative levels, in line with another leg south.

Support levels: 2,611.35 2,598.70 2,587.20

Resistance levels: 2,640.40 2,655.00 2,671.55

Can Momentum Be Sustained?

Today’s advance won’t mean much unless it leads to a breakout above last week’s high of 3.56. If that can trigger, then natural gas heads next towards the 2023 swing high of 3.64. Subsequently, if it can keep rising, it heads towards the completion of an 127.2% extended target for a large rising ABCD pattern (orange) at 2.67. Higher targets can be considered if the 2023 peak is exceeded.

Rising Channel Guide

A parallel line has been added to the top of the near-term rising trend channel by anchoring with the October 30 swing high. It is interesting to note that last week’s high found resistance just below that top parallel trendline. Nonetheless, the next higher target zone is anchored by the 3.64 peak and includes two pattern extension targets with a high of 3.67. Interestingly, natural gas could rally to that target zone yet stay contained below the top channel line.

Caution Warranted

Regardless of the above bullish scenario, Friday’s bearish engulfing day indicates caution is warranted. In other words, patterns within the parameters of Friday’s range may have difficulty following through as they might in a different trading environment. Conditions may be like what is seen within a consolidation price range. Friday’s price range included support at 3.07 up to resistance at 3.56.

A decline below today’s low of 3.39 would be a sign of weakness that could lead to lower prices. It is followed by Monday’s low of 3.26. Falling below Monday’s low would trigger a failure of today’s upside breakout from an inside day. It is not uncommon to see a pickup in momentum in response to false moves, which could easily lead to a test of yesterday’s low or a drop through it to either 3.02 or 2.93.

For a look at all of today’s economic events, check out our economic calendar.

• Silver price rebounds as the US Dollar, however, its outlook remains bearish.
• The appeal of safe-haven assets diminished on truce talks between Israel and Iran.
• The US Dollar fails to hold gains driven by US Trump’s threat to raise tariffs by 25% on Canada and Mexico.

Silver price (XAG/USD) rebounds after discovering a temporary support near the psychological support of $30.00. The white metal gains an interim ground as the US Dollar (USD) retreats. However, its outlook has weakened as its safe-haven demand weakens on potential de-escalation in the war between Israel and Iran.

Israeli Ambassador Mike Herzog told on Israeli Army Radio that a ceasefire deal to end fighting between Israel and Lebanon-based Hezbollah fighters could be reached “within days”, AlJazeera reported.

Potential truce talks have diminished safe-haven demand for precious metals, such as Silver. However, the overall safe-haven appeal has not been extinguished as the war between Russia and Ukraine remains intact.

Meanwhile, an upside-down move in the US Dollar (USD) has resulted in a slight recovery in the Silver price. The US Dollar Index (DXY), which tracks the Greenback’s value against six major currencies, surrenders gains after a strong opening and drops to near 107.00.

The US Dollar opened on a strong note after President-elect Donald Trump threatened to raise import tariffs by 25% on Canada and Mexico and an additional 10% above the already mentioned 60% on China.

In Tuesday’s session, investors will focus on the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) minutes of the policy meeting held on November 7, which will be published at 19:00 GMT. In the policy meeting, the Fed reduced interest rates by 25 basis points (bps) to 4.50%-4.75% and officials were confident that inflation remains on a sustainable track towards the bank’s target of 2%.

Silver technical analysis

Silver price resumes its declining trend after a mean-reversion move to near the 20-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) around $31.40. The white metal is expected to retreat to the November 14 low of around $29.70. The white metal weakened after the breakdown of the horizontal support plotted from the May 21 high of $32.50.

The upward-sloping trendline from the February 29 low of $22.30 will act as key support for the Silver price around $29.50.

The 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) oscillates in the 40.00-60.00 range, suggesting a sideways trend.

Silver daily chart