• Silver prices fell by nearly 3% on Monday following reports that Israel and Hezbollah are reaching a ceasefire agreement.
• President-elect Donald Trump plans to impose tariffs on imports from Mexico, Canada and China.
• The non-yielding Silver struggled due to bond market optimism following the selection of Scott Bessent as the US Treasury Secretary.

Silver price (XAG/USD) hovers around $30.40 per troy ounce during the Asian trading hours on Tuesday, following a nearly 3% drop in the previous session. This downside risk for safe-haven assets like Silver metal is linked to reports suggesting that Israel and Hezbollah are close to reaching a ceasefire agreement.

Additionally, the price of dollar-denominated Silver has been pressured by a stronger US dollar (USD) after President-elect Donald Trump announced plans to impose a 25% tariff on all imports from Mexico and Canada starting on his first day in office, alongside an additional 10% tariff on goods from China. A stronger US dollar makes precious metals more expensive for foreign buyers, negatively affecting Silver demand.

The non-yielding Silver faced downward pressure due to optimism in the bond market following the selection of Scott Bessent as US Treasury Secretary in the incoming administration. Bessent has advocated for a phased approach to trade restrictions and expressed a willingness to negotiate tariff levels in coordination with President-elect Donald Trump.

However, Tuesday’s less hawkish comments from Federal Reserve (Fed) officials may have offered some support for Silver prices. Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee suggested that the Fed is likely to continue lowering interest rates toward a neutral stance that neither stimulates nor restricts economic activity. Meanwhile, Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari pointed out that another rate cut could be considered at the Fed’s December meeting, according to Bloomberg.

Investors are now focusing on the Federal Reserve’s November meeting minutes, set to be released later in the North American session. These minutes could offer crucial insights into the central bank’s direction on monetary policy.

• Gold price hits weekly lows, then rebounds on Trump tariffs-led flight to safety.  
• Impending Bear Cross on the daily chart and bearish RSI caution Gold buyers.
• Gold price awaits Fed Minutes for fresh hints on the December interest rate cut.

Gold price has staged a solid comeback so far this Tuesday’s trading after hitting a six-day low at $2,605 in early dealings. Gold buyers look forward to the Minutes of the US Federal Reserve’s (Fed) November meeting for the next push higher.

Gold buyers try their luck ahead of Fed Minutes

Gold price extended the previous day’s corrective downside and reached multi-day lows before drawing strong support from a fresh flight to safety wave, triggered by the latest post by US President-elect Donald Trump on Truth Social.

Trump pledged to announce a 25% tariff on all products from Mexico and Canada and an additional 10% tariff on goods from China once he takes over his office on January 20. In response, the Chinese ambassador to Australia warned that “US policy on trade with China and other countries will have an impact.”

Mounting concerns surrounding a looming global trade war dent risk sentiment, ramping safe-haven flows into the US Dollar (USD) and the traditional safety bet Gold price. However, the renewed USD demand and rebounding US Treasury bond yields limit Gold buyers’ enthusiasm as they await the Fed Minutes for fresh signals on the expected December interest rate cut.

CME Group’s FedWatch Tool shows that markets are currently pricing in a 61% chance that the Fed will lower rates next month.

Additionally, waning geopolitical tensions between Israel and Lebanon remain a headwind for the bright metal. A senior Israeli official told Reuters on Monday that the Israeli cabinet will convene on Tuesday to approve a Lebanon ceasefire deal. Another Israeli official told Reuters the cabinet would convene to discuss a deal that could be cemented in the coming days.

Gold price was thrown under the bus on Monday even as the USD and the US Treasury bond yields fell sharply on the news that US President-elect Donald Trump named billionaire Scott Bessent as his Treasury Secretary.

Bessent’s appointment to the critical position in the Trump administration assured the US bond market, as he is seen as an old Wall Street hand and a fiscal conservative.

Gold price technical analysis: Daily chart

At the time of writing, Gold price is consolidating the bounce near $2,625 as buyers stay cautious amid an impending Bear Cross.

The 21-day SMA is closing in to cut the 50-day SMA from above. If that happens on a daily closing basis, it will validate the bearish crossover.

Adding credence to the downside potential, the 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) has found a foothold below the 50 level, currently at 45.50.

The immediate support is at the intraday low of $2,605, below which a drop toward the 100-day SMA at $2,566 cannot be ruled out.

A sustained break below that level could challenge the November 14 low of $2,537.

Conversely, Gold buyers need a daily candlestick closing above the confluence of the 21-day SMA and the 50-day SMA at $2,667.

The next topside barriers are seen at the $2,700 level and Monday’s high of $2,721.

In the third article in our weekly series on precious metals, we visit the platinum market, with analysis from Metals Focus, this time supplemented with further material from Trend Intelligence.

Platinum prices traded rangebound in 2022 and 2023 and this pattern has continued in 2024, with the metal trading between the same $850 and $1,100. This behaviour has been seen since mid-2021, and persisted even as gold rallied by more than $600 to record highs this year.

Platinum’s trading range has become somewhat self-fulfilling, with investors buying at the lower end and selling at the upper. To some extent, this floor stems from its largest physical deficit since 2002 (based on JM data before 2010), while abundant above-ground stocks from surplus years between 2016 and 2022 have provided much of the cap on prices.

As an example of platinum’s rangebound trading behaviour, net managed money positions have swung between net long and net short eight times this year, while gold and palladium have remained consistently net long and net short, respectively.

CME managed money net longs peaked in January at 1.2Moz, while the lows of 1Moz net short came in March, as investors traded platinum’s range. Platinum ETPs rose 9% ytd by end-August, driven by European investors capitalising on the metal’s relative value versus gold. However, profit taking above $1,000 and selling during early August’s global equity market turbulence caused positions to fall by 6% from June’s peak of 3.58Moz (111t).

In contrast to ETPs, retail investment demand has fallen sharply. In Japan, net disinvestment resumed due to higher yen-denominated prices, while North American demand has weakened due to such drivers as the absence of a US Mint platinum Eagle.

Platinum imports into China supported prices during 2021–2023, at times even resulting in physical market tightness. However, prior stockpiling and China’s economic slowdown have led to slower imports this year. This slack has since been picked up by opportunistic investors and the physical market deficit.

“Despite this, Chinese imports remain strongly inversely correlated to price,” Metals Focus said in its annual precious metals review. “Therefore, if the platinum price falls below its current range, we expect increased interest from speculative Chinese investors.”

Physical platinum market still in deficit

Platinum’s physical market balance remains in deficit for 2024, marking the second consecutive year of a shortfall. Both mined and recycled supply have stayed subdued for a third year. Mine production remains under pressure from the low basket price, which has led to cost-cutting initiatives, including shaft closures and labour retrenchments.

Autocatalyst recycling remains under pressure, as consumers keep vehicles for longer and scrapyards are hoarding material hoping for higher prices. Like supply, total platinum demand shows minimal change year-on-year. Growth in glass and a fall in chemicals demand largely balance each other out, as cyclical LCD capacity expansions offset slower Chinese paraxylene capacity growth.

The key demand sectors, automotive and jewellery, should prove more stable, according to Metals Focus, growing 1% and 6% respectively. Overall, platinum’s physical deficit is expected to reach 653koz (20.3t) in 2024, similar to the 2023 deficit. As a result, above-ground stocks are projected to fall to 9.6Moz (299t), equivalent to 15 months of demand.

Platinum has mostly traded rangebound between $850 and $1,100 since late 2021, and 2024 has been similar with a low of $869 (March) and a peak of $1,096 (May). This rangebound trend has become self-fulfilling, with investors buying in the low $900s and selling above $1,000.

“We expect this trend to persist in the short-term, while platinum’s fundamentals benefit the metal in the longer-term,” Metals Focus said.

Platinum has been supported in this trend during 2024 by the metal’s physical deficit of 653koz (20.3t), the market’s deepest deficit since 2002 (looking at JM data before 2010). Although this eases slightly in 2025, to 528koz (16.4t), the deficit will continue to support the price.

The easing deficit will be driven by increased supply, led by double-digit growth in autocatalyst scrap. Over the past three years, scrap supply was constrained by semiconductor shortages, high interest rates, and lower vehicle turnover. These constraints are expected to ease and have the potential of significantly boosting recycled supply in 2025.

However, Metals Focus believes mine supply will continue falling in 2025 due to low basket prices pressuring margins, leading to attrition from cost cutting at South African operations.

Conversely, overall platinum demand is expected to remain flat year-on-year. This is primarily due to a significant drop in cyclical capacity expansions of LCD production, which boosted platinum glass demand in 2024. However, growth in other sectors (including automotive, jewellery,
chemicals, and hydrogen) will offset this.

Automotive demand for platinum is set to increase

Automotive demand for platinum is projected to climb 3%, driven by continued substitution of palladium and higher loadings in heavy duty vehicles, despite a fall in light duty catalysed vehicle production. In contrast to the long-term bearish outlook for autocatalysts, hydrogen demand is expected to exceed 100koz for the first time in 2025.

Furthermore, the sector is experiencing strong double-digit growth, which will play a key role in supporting platinum’s positive outlook. Additionally, retail investors are expected to turn more positive to platinum with net coin and bar demand forecast to rise by 18% next year.

“Longer term, we are favourable to platinum, owing to its deficit market, and see the metal trending steadily higher,” Metals Focus said. “However, ample above-ground stocks will dampen the impact of these deficits in the short term, and platinum’s entrenched rangebound trend is likely to remain a barrier to any significant price breakout.”

Although some investors have lost faith in the metal after investing prematurely for the hydrogen narrative (which has been slower to materialise than expected), renewed hope stems from this potential. This, combined with weakening BEV sales and platinum’s undervaluation relative to gold, will offer long-term investors new optimism.

Therefore, Metals Focus forecasts an annual average price of $1,070 in 2025. This represents a 13% rise but is still within its current trading range, with potential breakout highs of $1,200. Alongside gold’s later retracement, Metals Focus expects the platinum-gold spread to narrow to $1,260 by Q4.25, down from its current all-time high of over $1,600.

Technical analysis on platinum price trend

Looking at the analysis of the platinum price now from Trend Intelligence, we can see some further reinforcement of the Metals Focus findings. In the first chart below we see the platinum price moving above two of Trend’s moving averages, but the averages remain organised in a fully negative configuration – the shorter average is below the median and long term averages. The platinum price is trading within the Japanese Cloud indicator as well, and its delay line has broken above the cloud. The most recent Japanese average candle is green. Overall this represents a neutral trend.

The second chart is the D* Momentum Indicator, which is positive for platinum; the negative D* line is below the positive green line.

The third chart, the R* Momentum Indicator, is negative, while the white signal line is positive. The data points are trending downwards. This looks to be another neutral indicator for platinum.

The final indicator is the M* Momentum, which is also neutral, as the fast red M* line is above the white signal line, but below the zero cut-off.

Overall, Trend Intelligence sees the long-term view for platinum as a continuation of the weak/neutral trend. This summary shows price action operating above two of the moving averages and within the Japanese Cloud. Most of the momentum indicators are producing neutral signals.

Significant and sustained short-term changes in price can positively or negatively impact the long-term trend.

XAU/USD Current price: $2,633.56

• Hopes for a cease-fire between Israel and Hezbollah boosted the mood.
• Demand for safe-haven assets backs the US Dollar vs the bright metal.
• XAU/USD gains bearish traction, aims to test the $2,600 price zone.  

Spot GOLD trades around $2,630, having shed roughly $30 after Wall Street’s opening. The bright metal has been under selling pressure since early in Asia, maintaining a sour tone as the day comes to an end. XAU/USD fell despite the broad US Dollar’s weakness, as a better market mood pushed investors away from safe-haven assets.

Investors welcomed headlines indicating a cease-fire agreement between Israel and Hezbollah is very close, according to the Israeli ambassador to the United States (US). Authorities are expected to announce on Tuesday a 60-day cease-fire, with hopes that it could be resolved in such a pause.

 Demand for the Greenback increased in the last Monday’s session, helped by the solid performance of US indexes and encouraging US data. The country reported that the Chicago Fed National Activity Index was down a modest 0.4 in October, following an upwardly revised -0.27 in September. At the same time, the November Dallas Fed Manufacturing Business Index posted -2.7, slightly better than the previous -3.

The focus this week will be on the US Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index, the Federal Reserve’s (Fed) favourite inflation gauge, which will be published on Wednesday. The country will release alongside the second estimate of the Q3 Gross Domestic Product (GDP).

XAU/USD short-term technical outlook

The daily chart for XAU/USD shows the risk skews to the downside. The pair accelerated south after breaking below a now bearish 20 Simple Moving Average (SMA), while technical indicators turned sharply lower within negative levels after failing to overcome their midlines. The 100 and 200 SMAs maintain their upward slopes, with the shorter one currently at around $2,563, a critical support level in the upcoming sessions.

In the near term, and according to the 4-hour chart, XAU/USD is also at risk of extending its slide. The pair fell below all its moving averages, with the 100 SMA gaining downward momentum at around $2,655. Finally, technical indicators head firmly south within negative levels without showing signs of bearish exhaustion.

Support levels:  2,626.10 2,611.35 2,598.70

Resistance levels: 2,640.40 2,655.00 2,671.55

Inside Day Provides Price Levels

Once Monday’s session is complete, pivots are at the day’s high of 3.46 and the low of 3.26. A decisive move through either has the potential to lead to a continuation in the same direction. Moreover, be cautious of false breakouts, either up or down, that quickly reverse back into today’s trading range. Natural gas rallied above three key pivots last week, indicating improving demand.

The series of lower swing highs are components of the upper boundary of a large symmetrical triangle pattern. At the same time, once the trend high of 3.56 was hit last Friday it led to a bearish engulfing day with natural gas closing below the prior day’s low after exceeding the prior day’s high earlier in the session.

Strong Advance Takes a Rest

Last week’s rally exceeded the top of a previously identified resistance zone with a high of 3.45. A decisive rally above today’s high will put natural gas in a position to possibly challenge last week’s high of 3.56. A little above that high is another potential resistance zone from 3.64 to 3.67. That zone is anchored by previous resistance at the peak for 2023 at 3.64. If natural gas can get above there, it will be trading at its highest price in around 22-months.

Weakness Points to 3.15 Next

Alternatively, a drop below today’s low will likely see further testing of lower support levels. Given the bearish engulfing day last Friday and weak close, it wouldn’t be surprising to see another test of Friday’s low of 3.07. Also, watch the 3.15 swing high area on the way down for possible support. Other key potential support areas include the prior swing high at 3.02 and the 20-Day MA at 2.90.

For a look at all of today’s economic events, check out our economic calendar.

• Silver price may regain its ground due to safe-haven flows amid the rising Russia-Ukraine war.
• The dollar-denominated Silver may gain demand as the US Dollar depreciates due to market optimism.
• The non-interest-bearing Silver could face challenges due to increased odds of the Fed slowing the pace of rate cuts.

Silver price (XAG/USD) retraces its recent gains, trading around $30.80 per troy ounce during the Asian session on Monday. This decline may be linked to a technical pullback, similar to the weakness seen in precious metal Gold. However, Silver, as a safe-haven asset, could regain its momentum due to the escalating Russia-Ukraine conflict.

On Friday, President Vladimir Putin confirmed that Russia conducted a hypersonic intermediate-range missile test in an attack on the Ukrainian city of Dnipro. The Kremlin stated that the strike was a retaliatory measure in response to Ukraine’s first assault on Russian territory using US and British-supplied weapons.

Silver prices may receive additional support from a weaker US Dollar following the announcement by US President-elect Donald Trump of his nomination of hedge fund manager Scott Bessent as the new US Treasury Secretary. Bessent, a seasoned Wall Street figure and fiscal conservative, is expected to adopt a more cautious stance on tariffs, alleviating concerns about the implementation of aggressive trade policies.

The non-interest-bearing Silver might have faced downward pressure due to the potential for a higher opportunity cost over a prolonged period. This could be attributed to the strong preliminary S&P Global US Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) data released on Friday, which has fueled expectations that the Federal Reserve (Fed) may slow the pace of rate cuts.

Futures traders are now assigning a 50.9% probability to the Federal Reserve cutting rates by a quarter point, down from approximately 61.9% a week earlier, according to the CME FedWatch Tool.

• Gold price jumped to a two-week high of $2,721 before correcting sharply on Monday.
• Fading political and geopolitical risks outweigh falling US Dollar and Treasury bonds, weighing on Gold price.
• Gold price spots an impending Bear Cross on the daily chart as the RSI stalls its bullish momentum.    

After witnessing intense volatility in Monday’s opening hour, Gold’s price is licking its wounds near $2,700. The bright metal enjoyed good two-way trades before sellers returned to the game after five straight days.  

Gold price sellers look to extend control

Gold price picked up fresh bids and jumped to nearly a two-week high of $2,721 in the early dealing. The US Dollar saw a bearish opening gap in tandem with the US Treasury bond yields. Asian traders hit their desks and reacted to the weekend news that US President-elect Donald Trump named billionaire Scott Bessent as his Treasury Secretary.

Bessent’s appointment to the critical position in the Trump administration assured the US Treasury market, as he is seen as an old Wall Street hand and a fiscal conservative. This narrative triggered a sharp retracement in the benchmark US 10-year Treasury bond yields, testing the 4.30% level as of writing.

The US Dollar (USD) tracked the sell-off in the US Treasury bond yields, currently trading 0.65% lower on the day against its major currency rivals.

Despite the ongoing pullback in the USD and the Treasury bond yields, the non-yielding Gold price cannot capitalize on it, correcting sharply from higher levels.

The latest downtick in Gold price could be attributed to improving risk sentiment, courtesy of easing geopolitical tensions between Israel and Lebanon, and reducing uncertainty around the Trump administration. Citing Israeli and US officials. Axios reported that Israel and Lebanon are on the cusp of a ceasefire agreement.

Gold buyers are also cashing in ahead of Wednesday’s US inflation data amid a holiday-shortened Thanksgiving week.

All eyes remain on the geopolitical developments between Israel and Lebanon and Russia-Ukraine in the absence of any top-tier US economic data release on Monday. No speeches from US Federal Reserve (Fed) policymakers could leave Gold traders at the mercy of risk trends.

Gold price technical analysis: Daily chart

Having reclaimed all major daily Simple Moving Averages (SMA) on Friday, Gold price has paused its recovery momentum near $2,720.

The turn lower in the 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) could also be linked to the renewed weakness in Gold price. The leading indicator currently trades near 56 after testing the 58 level.

An impending Bear Cross continues to pose as a headwind for Gold price. The 21-day SMA is closing in to cut the 50-day SMA from above. If that happens on a daily closing basis, it will validate the bearish crossover.

These technical indicators suggest that the tide could be turning in favor of Gold sellers.

The immediate support is around $2,670, where the 21-day SMA and the 50-day SMA close in.

A sustained break below that level could initiate a fresh downtrend toward $2,600. The November 20 low of $2,619 will be tested ahead of that.

On the other hand, Gold buyers need a daily candlestick closing above the November 5 high of $2.750 to resume the uptrend toward the all-time high of $2,790.

• Gold price attracts some buyers to near $2,720 in Monday’s early Asian session.
• Heightened geopolitical tensions between Russia and Ukraine lift the Gold price. 
• The cautious stance from the Fed might cap the upside for Gold. 

The Gold price (XAU/USD) jumps to around $2,720 during the early Asian session on Monday. The sell-off in the US Dollar (USD) provides some support to the USD-denominated Gold price. Additionally, rising geopolitical tensions continue to underpin safe-haven assets like yellow metal. 

Investors will closely monitor the developments surrounding the Russia-Ukraine conflicts. Last week, Russian President Vladimir Putin lowered the threshold for a nuclear strike in response to a broader range of conventional attacks, days after reports said Washington DC, had allowed Ukraine to use US-made weapons to strike deep into Russian territory. This, in turn, might boost the safe-haven flows, benefiting the precious metal price. 

“It’s really one main geopolitical factor that’s at play here in the gold market over the course of the last several days – the increased tensions between Ukraine and Russia is probably most notable,” noted David Meger, director of metals trading at High Ridge Futures.

On the other hand, several Federal Reserve (Fed) officials remain cautious about rate reductions, which might cap the Gold’s upside. The market is adjusting its expectations for the Fed’s cuts next year as inflation is becoming a bigger concern. Higher rates reduce the appeal of gold. According to the CME FedWatch Tool, futures traders are now pricing in 50.9% odds that the Fed will cut rates by a quarter point, down from around 69.5% a month ago. 

Breakout Triggered Above Thursday’s High

A rally above today’s high will trigger a bullish breakout above the line before crude quickly encounters potential resistance around the 50-Day MA pivot, which is at 71.23. That is followed by the top of a declining consolidation pattern (red box) from around 73.15 to 73.27. Crude missed a chance to continue to fall following a bearish trigger on Monday.

Instead, it dropped below prior lows but then quickly reversed higher and ended the day with a bullish key reversal day. The bullish continuation of that one-day reversal has been struggling as crude is rising into a swath of potential resistance, given that it remains within a larger consolidation pattern.

Rebound from False Breakdown

Today’s advance showed strength by reclaiming the 20-Day MA (purple) above 69.97. Given where crude is trading at the time of this writing, it still has a chance to close the day above the line. If it does, that would be another minor sign of strength that needs follow-through. A breakout through a key price level in either direction that quickly reverses in a decisive fashion, is a failure of a breakout attempt. Typically, the reversal of the breakout can be accompanied by sharp moves in the opposite direction. That may still happen with crude if today’s high is exceeded. This does not mean that it will do so, it is only a possibility until further signs of strength are seen.

Watch Weekly High of 70.84

There is another price level representing a key pivot that also needs to be considered. Last week’s high was 70.84. Therefore, an advance above that high will trigger a bullish reversal on the weekly time frame. It would be reached shortly after a breakout above today’s high.

Near-term Support at 69.16

On the downside, a drop below today’s low of 69.16 may lead to a bearish pullback to test support around this week’s lows. Since resistance is being seen around where some signs of resistance would be expected, at the downtrend line, that scenario may yet play out.

• Silver rebounds to reclaim the $31.00 mark, buoyed by a drop in US Treasury yields and ongoing market dynamics.
• Technical landscape shows resistance at the 50-day SMA of $31.75, with potential targets extending to $32.00 and $33.00.
• Key support levels identified at $31.00 and $30.00, with further downside protection near the November low of $29.68.

Silver price recovered some ground on Friday and reclaimed the $31.00 a troy ounce, boosted by falling US Treasury bond yields and despite a firm US Dollar. At the time of writing, the XAG/USD trades at $31.28, a gain of over 1.62%.

XAG/USD Price Forecast: Technical outlook

The grey metal has consolidated within the $30.50-$31.50 range for the last four days, capped on the upside by the 50-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) at $31.75. If Silver extends its rally above the latter, the $32.00 psychological figure would be up next. Once cleared, further upside is seen, with the $33.00 mark up next, ahead of the October 29 peak at $34.54.

For a bearish continuation, XAG/USD first support would be $31.00. Once surpassed, the next demand zone would be $30.00, followed by the November 14 low of $29.68. On further weakness, the next stop would be the 200-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) at $28.91.

Oscillators such as the Relative Strength Index (RSI) suggest buyers are gathering steam, yet the RSI is still below its neutral line. Hence, the bias is neutral-bullish.

XAG/USD Price Chart – Daily