• Silver retreats over 1.14% as traders shift focus to the Greenback, though remains up 1.90% for the week.
• Technicals indicate a bearish trend with potential support at $30.00 after breaking below the 100-day SMA.
• RSI trends suggest bearish momentum is increasing, indicating possible further declines in silver prices.

Silver’s price retreats over 1.14% on Wednesday, yet it remains up 1.90% in the week as traders ditch the grey metal in favor of the Greenback. At the time of writing, XAG/USD trades at $30.82 a troy ounce, beneath the $31.00 psychological mark.

XAG/USD Price Forecast: Technical outlook

The non-yielding metal trades within the $30.38-$31.75 range, guarded by the 100- and 50-day Simple Moving Averages (SMAs), respectively. Despite being range-bound, the XAG/USD is downward biased in the short term as the precious metal achieves successive series of lower highs and lower lows.

Once sellers push XAG/USD below the 100-day SMA, a bearish resumption will occur. If cleared, the next support would be $30.00 a troy ounce, followed by the November 14 swing low of $29.68 and the 200-day SMA at $28.88.

If buyers moved in and pushed XAG/USD above $31.00, the 50-day SMA would be next, ahead of the $32.00 figure.

Indicators such as the Relative Strength Index (RSI) hint that bears continue to gather steam. Therefore, further XAG/USD downside is expected.

XAG/USD Price Chart – Daily

Strong Breakout of Symmetrical Triangle

Today’s strong rally triggered a breakout of a large symmetrical triangle pattern, and it will be confirmed on a daily close above 3.02. Also, the continuation of two rising ABCD patterns, one light blue and the other in purple, occurred on the advance above 3.02. And there was a third ABCD pattern (orange) that triggered a continuation of the pattern on the move above 3.16. The three patterns are a good example of the fractal nature of price patterns.

First Target (minor) Hit

A first target at 3.22 was reached today and tested as resistance. So far, there is enough resistance to stop the advance, if natural gas ends today with that high price. That price target is the initial projection from the near-term light blue rising ABCD pattern. Since it is the smallest structure of the three ABCD patterns, it had the greatest chance of being reached.

Since the triangle pattern is a long-term pattern that has been forming for some months, the bullish reaction from the breakout may overrule potential resistance at the first target for the smaller pattern. Bullish momentum seen today could continue to the next higher potential resistance from around 3.35 to 3.45. That price zone is found at the confluence of four projected price levels.

Monthly Breakout Confirms Strength

The 3.02 swing high was also the monthly high from October. Therefore, a monthly trend continuation signal occurred today. The dominant trend is seen in the monthly pattern as it can influence price patterns in the shorter time frames.

For a look at all of today’s economic events, check out our economic calendar.

• Silver price slides below $31.00 as its safe-haven demand fades.
• Higher bond yields also weighed on the Silver price.
• Investors expect the Fed to deliver fewer interest rate cuts in the current policy-easing cycle.

Silver price (XAG/USD) extends its correction below $31.00 in European trading hours on Wednesday after facing selling pressure near $31.50 on Tuesday. The white metal falls back as fresh escalation in the Russia-Ukraine war inspired by President Vladimir Putin’s approval to lowering the threshold for counter attack by nuclear weapons faded after Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov said the country will “do everything possible” to avoid the onset of nuclear war.

Putin cleared revision in the nuclear doctrine after US President Joe Biden provided the Army Tactical Missile System (ATACMS) to Ukraine and permitted them to launch deep into Russian territory. Historically, demand for safe-haven assets such as Silver, strengthens in times of uncertainty and heightened geopolitical risks.

A sharp recovery in the US Treasury yields has also weighed on the Silver price. 10-year US Treasury yields jump to near 4.42% on expectations of fewer interest rate cuts from the Federal Reserve (Fed) in its current policy-easing cycle. Higher yields on interest-bearing assets increase the opportunity cost of holding an investment in non-yielding assets, such as Silver. The US Dollar Index (DXY), which gauges Greenback’s value against six major currencies, bounces back strongly above 106.60.

Market participants expect the economic agenda of President-elected Donald Trump will boost the United States (US) inflation and economic growth, a scenario that will force the Fed to follow a gradual rate-cut approach.

Silver technical analysis

Silver price stays on track toward the upward-sloping trendline around $29.00, plotted from the February low of $22.30, which also coincides with the 200-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA). The white metal falls back after facing selling pressure near the 50-day EMA, which trades around $31.40.

The asset weakened after the breakdown of the horizontal support plotted from the May 21 high of $32.50.

The 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) slides to near 40.00. A bearish momentum will trigger if the RSI (14) sustains below the same.

Silver daily chart

• Gold prices extended their uptrend despite alleviating geopolitical jitters.
• The US Dollar regained composure and advanced to weekly tops.
• XAU/USD maintains the bullish note well north of $2,600/oz.

On Wednesday, Gold prices continued their ascent despite geopolitical tensions mitigated somewhat along with the appetite for safe-haven assets. Heightened anxiety over the Russia-Ukraine conflict, coupled with broader uncertainty in global markets, has been underpinning the strong weekly rebound in the precious metal for the time being.

The yellow metal, however, is expected to remain under scrutiny in the next few weeks as recent US economic data, coupled with expectations that Republican policies could fuel inflation, have increased the likelihood of interest rates staying elevated for an extended period. While gold is traditionally viewed as a hedge against inflation, higher interest rates make the non-yielding metal less attractive to investors.

So far this week, Gold prices surged past the recently breached $2,600 mark per troy ounce, finding decent resistance around the 55-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) above $2,640, which emerges as a noticeable hurdle as it seeks to build on its recovery momentum.

The yellow metal’s rebound was also supported by a softer US Dollar (USD), which has struggled to maintain the strength it gained during its Trump-trade rally. Adding to the bullish narrative, US Treasury yields have lost steam across multiple maturities, providing further breathing room for Gold prices.

Looking ahead, this week’s spotlight will turn to a series of key global economic data releases, with preliminary Purchasing Managers’ Indexes (PMIs) taking the lead. Market participants will also be tuning in to comments from central bank officials, particularly in the wake of Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s recent cautious stance. On this, let’s recall that Powell highlighted the resilience of the US economy but reiterated the need for prudence when considering future rate cuts.

From a positioning standpoint, speculative interest in gold has softened. Non-commercial traders reduced their net long positions to approximately 236.5K contracts as of November 12—the lowest level since early June, according to the latest CFTC report. This decline in long positions coincides with a second straight drop in open interest, which could prop up some loss of traction from the recent downtrend in gold prices.

XAU/USD short-term technical outlook

The daily chart of XAU/USD indicates a clear break above the bullish 100-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) above $2,550, which is close to the November low of $2,536. Further up comes the current weekly high of $2,650 (November 20) corresponds with the transitory 55-day SMA, confirming this first resistance zone. Up from here, the next minor objective is the $2,700 barrier, prior to the weekly top of $2,749 (November 5).

On the other side, a rapid breach of the temporary 100-day SMA at $2,554 should draw attention to the November low of $2,536 (November 14).

In the short term, the 4-hour chart indicates that the current recovery has more space to go. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) has recovered but confronts resistance at 65, while the Average Directional Index (ADX) near 34 suggests a lack of significant trend momentum for the time being.

On the upside, the next resistance level to monitor is $2,650, followed by the more important 200-SMA at $2,677. On the downside, support remains solid around $2,536, a critical level to monitor if prices reverse course.

• Silver price slides below $31.00 as its safe-haven demand fades.
• Higher bond yields also weighed on the Silver price.
• Investors expect the Fed to deliver fewer interest rate cuts in the current policy-easing cycle.

Silver price (XAG/USD) extends its correction below $31.00 in European trading hours on Wednesday after facing selling pressure near $31.50 on Tuesday. The white metal falls back as fresh escalation in the Russia-Ukraine war inspired by President Vladimir Putin’s approval to lowering the threshold for counter attack by nuclear weapons faded after Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov said the country will “do everything possible” to avoid the onset of nuclear war.

Putin cleared revision in the nuclear doctrine after US President Joe Biden provided the Army Tactical Missile System (ATACMS) to Ukraine and permitted them to launch deep into Russian territory. Historically, demand for safe-haven assets such as Silver, strengthens in times of uncertainty and heightened geopolitical risks.

A sharp recovery in the US Treasury yields has also weighed on the Silver price. 10-year US Treasury yields jump to near 4.42% on expectations of fewer interest rate cuts from the Federal Reserve (Fed) in its current policy-easing cycle. Higher yields on interest-bearing assets increase the opportunity cost of holding an investment in non-yielding assets, such as Silver. The US Dollar Index (DXY), which gauges Greenback’s value against six major currencies, bounces back strongly above 106.60.

Market participants expect the economic agenda of President-elected Donald Trump will boost the United States (US) inflation and economic growth, a scenario that will force the Fed to follow a gradual rate-cut approach.

Silver technical analysis

Silver price stays on track toward the upward-sloping trendline around $29.00, plotted from the February low of $22.30, which also coincides with the 200-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA). The white metal falls back after facing selling pressure near the 50-day EMA, which trades around $31.40.

The asset weakened after the breakdown of the horizontal support plotted from the May 21 high of $32.50.

The 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) slides to near 40.00. A bearish momentum will trigger if the RSI (14) sustains below the same.

Silver daily chart

• Gold price trades in the green for the third straight day on Wednesday, nears $2,650.
• Gold price gains on geopolitical risks and steady US Dollar even as Treasury bond yields recover.
• Gold price closes on 50-day SMA resistance at $2,660 amid bearish daily RSI.   

Gold price stays on the front foot early Wednesday, looking to regain the $2,650 barrier as the road to recovery extends for the third straight day. Traders now await the upcoming speeches from US Federal Reserve (Fed) policymakers and Nvidia’s earnings report amid lingering geopolitical concerns between Russia and Ukraine.   

Gold price looks to geopolitics and Fedspeak for fresh directives

The US Dollar (USD) seems to find fresh demand in Asian trading on Wednesday, tracking the uptick in the US Treasury bond yields as broader market sentiment improves on China’s stimulus hopes.

Markets were cautious earlier following the People’s Bank of China’s (PBOC) inaction on the Loan Prime Rates (LPR). However, expectations that China will roll out more stimulus to prop up the economy are lifting the market mood.

Further, worries over a further geopolitical escalation between Russia and Ukraine seem to fade, lifting risk appetite.

However, Gold buyers refuse to give up so far, anticipating a shift in risk sentiment if the American AI giant Nvidia Inc.’s earnings report disappoints and triggers a wave of risk aversion across the financial markets.

Also, the developments surrounding Russia and Ukraine will be closely eyed, keeping the demand for the traditional safe-haven Gold price underpinned.

 On Tuesday, Russia’s Defence Ministry said that Ukraine fired six US-made Army Tactical Missile Systems (ATACMS) missiles at Bryansk region, just days after US President Joe Biden allowed the Ukrainian use of American-made weapons to strike inside Russia.

The Kremlin confirmed Tuesday that they lowered the threshold for a possible nuclear strike in response to non-nuclear attacks on Russia.

Besides, the Fedspeak will help gauge the US central bank’s path forward on interest rates, with markets now pricing in a 60% chance that the Fed will cut rates by 25 basis points (bps) in December.

Gold price technical analysis: Daily chart

The short-term technical outlook for Gold price remains the same, with traders likely to adopt a ‘sell on bounce’ trade strategy as the 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) remains below the 50 level. The indicator is currently trading near 47.

An impending Bear Cross adds credence to the downside potential. The 21-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) is looking to cross the 50-day SMA above. If that happens on a daily closing basis, it will validate the bearish crossover.

That said, failure to find acceptance above the 50-day SMA at $2,660 on a daily closing basis could reinforce sellers toward the $2,600 threshold.

The previous day’s low of $2,610 will be tested ahead of that.

On the flip side, the immediate resistance is seen at the 50-day SMA, above which the 21-day SMA at $2,682 will come into play.

Additional recovery could face stiff resistance at the $2,700 threshold.

• Silver price remains subdued as PBoC maintained the benchmark interest rate at 3.1% for November.
• The demand for safe-haven silver could increase due to heightened tensions in the Russia-Ukraine conflict.
• The dollar-denominated Silver gained demand as the US Dollar experienced profit-taking selling after a recent rally.

Silver price (XAG/USD) retraces its recent gains, trading around $31.20 per troy ounce during the Asian session on Wednesday. The price of Silver might have faced downward pressure after the People’s Bank of China (PBoC) Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) decided to maintain the benchmark interest rate at 3.1% for November. Higher interest rates in China, a key global manufacturing hub for electronics, solar panels, and automotive components, would likely reduce industrial demand for Silver.

The price of the safe-haven bullion gained ground amid escalating tensions in the Russia-Ukraine conflict. According to a Reuters report late Tuesday, Ukraine deployed US-supplied ATACMS missiles to strike Russian territory for the first time, signaling a significant escalation on the 1,000th day of the conflict. However, market concerns eased slightly after Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov stated that the government would “do everything possible” to prevent the outbreak of nuclear war.

The dollar-denominated Silver strengthens its demand as the US Dollar (USD) experienced profit-taking selling after a recent rally. This rally was fueled by expectations of fewer Federal Reserve (Fed) rate cuts and optimism about US economic outperformance under the incoming Trump administration. A lower US Dollar makes the precious metals cheaper for buyers with foreign currencies, which increases the Silver demand.

Jeffrey Schmid, President of the Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City, stated on Tuesday that he expects both inflation and employment to move closer to the Fed’s targets. Schmid explained that rate cuts signal the Fed’s confidence in inflation trending toward its 2% goal. He also noted that while large fiscal deficits won’t necessarily drive inflation, the Fed may need to counteract potential pressures with higher interest rates.

Resistance for the Day at 20-Day MA

Since crude seemed to have recognized the 20-Day MA, even though it is contained within a rectangle consolidation formation, today’s high along with the 20-Day line marks near-term resistance. A bullish breakout above the 20-Day line will indicate short-term strength, but within a dominant consolidation pattern.

This means that until crude moves out of the pattern and stays out of it, trading will likely remain choppy with low conviction moves. An advance above the 20-Day line has crude heading towards the top of the pattern at 73.27. Also, there may be some reaction on the approach around the 50-Day MA at 71.19.

Decline Possible Below 67.05

A bearish breakdown from the rectangle triggered on Monday as crude fell below the prior low of the range at 67.05. But following a drop 66.86, buyers stepped in and took back control, which led to today’s high. Monday was a reversal day where the day began with sellers in charge as crude fell to a 47-day low, and it ended with buyers back in charge, reaching a five-day high and ending at a six-day closing high. If crude oil can continue to strengthen above the 20-Day line, the internal downtrend may also provide an indication of strength or weakness.

Bull Breakout Above 73.27

If crude can breakout above 73.27 and continue to strengthen it likely heads towards the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement at 74.60, along with potential resistance from a trendline that marks the bottom boundary of a large symmetrical triangle pattern. Subsequently, the 78.6% retracement at 76.57 along with the 200-Day MA at 77.38, becomes the next higher targets.

Downside Trigger Points to 65.65

Alternatively, a sustained decline below this week’s low of 66.86 has crude first testing support around the swing low of 65.65 from early-September. That low was the lowest traded price for crude oil since May 2023. If it fails to hold as support crude next targets the 63.68 to 63.30 potential support zone, which happens to be around the long-term downtrend line.

For a look at all of today’s economic events, check out our economic calendar.

Will Breakout Confirm?

The advance today triggered a breakout of the closest prior swing high in the series of lower swing lows at 3.02. Once there is a daily close above 3.02, assuming further bullish moves, an upside breakout of a large symmetrical triangle pattern will have confirmed the breakout. In addition, today’s rally triggered a likely continuation of the bull trend that started from the August swing low, as there is now a higher swing high. A daily close above the 3.02 high also will confirm the continuation of that trend. A confirmed breakout indicates that there is a greater chance for a continuation of the move.

Upside Looks Towards 3.35

Once the price structure of the triangle is busted with a higher swing high, previous higher swing highs become a target. And a confirmed breakout above either will provide another sign of strength. The first is 3.16 from the peak in June. Given the potential improvement in momentum once a breakout is confirmed that price target may easily be surpassed leading to 3.22.

However, that is a short-term target as it is derived from the most recent rising ABCD pattern (light blue) that shows price symmetry between the two swings at that target. Further up is a price zone of potential resistance from 3.35 to 3.45. An ascending ABCD pattern (purple) reaches its target at 3.35. At 3.39 there is a match with resistance seen at the January peak, while there is an extended ABCD target at 3.42. The range ends with the target from a large rising ABCD pattern at 3.45.

For a look at all of today’s economic events, check out our economic calendar.

• Rising concerns in the Russia-Ukraine crisis spark further gains in Gold .
• Steady geopolitical tensions favour the flight-to-safety environment.
• XAU/USD flirts with the $2,650 region prior to the $2,700 mark.

Persistent concerns in the geopolitical landscape encouraged market participants to increase their positions in the precious metal on turnaround Tuesday, a move that came in response to swelling effervescence in the Russia-Ukraine front and as a direct answer to bouts of demand for the safe haven universe.

Against that backdrop, prices of the troy ounce of the yellow metal advanced further north of the recently broken $2,600 mark, meeting immediate hurdle at the interim 55-day SMA in the $2,640 zone for the time being.

In addition, Gold’s rebound appears bolstered by a vacillating price action in the US Dollar (USD) as markets reassess the strength of the Trump-era rally. Additionally, the widespread loss of momentum in US Treasury yields across various maturities has also offered the metal further chances to recover.

It is worth noting that the resurgence of tensions on the geopolitical front came in response to reports over the weekend that the Biden administration has authorized Ukraine to use US-made weapons to strike Russian territory.

Looking ahead, this week’s focus will shift to key economic data releases globally, with preliminary PMIs expected to take center stage in the first turn. Comments from central bank officials are also likely to draw attention, especially following Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s remarks last week, where he reiterated the Fed’s cautious approach to further rate cuts, citing the resilience of the US economy.

Shifting the optics, non-commercial players (speculators) reduced their net long positions in Gold to approximately 236.5K contracts as of November 12, the lowest level since early June, according to the latest CFTC report. This decline coincided with a second consecutive drop in open interest, which could in turn morph into a signal that the recent downtrend in the commodity could start losing momentum.

XAU/USD short-term technical outlook

The daily chart for XAU/USD shows a clear break above the bullish 100-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) near $2,550, an area close to November’s low of $2,536. Further up, the so far weekly high around $2,540 (November 19) coincides with the transitory 55-day SMA, reinforcing this initial resistance zone. Up from here, the next minor target emerges at the weekly high of $2,749 (November 5).

On the other hand, a quick breach of the temporary 100-day SMA at $2,551 should shift the attention to the November bottom of $2,536 (November 14).

In the short term, the 4-hour chart suggests that the ongoing recovery has more room to run. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) has bounced but faces resistance around the 62 region, while the Average Directional Index (ADX) at 32 indicates a lack of strong trend momentum for the time being.

On the upside, the next resistance levels to watch are $2,639, followed by the more significant 200-SMA at $2,678 and the 100-SMA. On the downside, support remains firm at $2,536, a key level to watch if prices reverse course.