• Silver rebounds to reclaim the $31.00 mark, buoyed by a drop in US Treasury yields and ongoing market dynamics.
• Technical landscape shows resistance at the 50-day SMA of $31.75, with potential targets extending to $32.00 and $33.00.
• Key support levels identified at $31.00 and $30.00, with further downside protection near the November low of $29.68.

Silver price recovered some ground on Friday and reclaimed the $31.00 a troy ounce, boosted by falling US Treasury bond yields and despite a firm US Dollar. At the time of writing, the XAG/USD trades at $31.28, a gain of over 1.62%.

XAG/USD Price Forecast: Technical outlook

The grey metal has consolidated within the $30.50-$31.50 range for the last four days, capped on the upside by the 50-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) at $31.75. If Silver extends its rally above the latter, the $32.00 psychological figure would be up next. Once cleared, further upside is seen, with the $33.00 mark up next, ahead of the October 29 peak at $34.54.

For a bearish continuation, XAG/USD first support would be $31.00. Once surpassed, the next demand zone would be $30.00, followed by the November 14 low of $29.68. On further weakness, the next stop would be the 200-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) at $28.91.

Oscillators such as the Relative Strength Index (RSI) suggest buyers are gathering steam, yet the RSI is still below its neutral line. Hence, the bias is neutral-bullish.

XAG/USD Price Chart – Daily

At 14:13 GMT, Natural Gas futures are trading $3.187, down $0.152 or -4.55%.

How Is Weather Impacting Demand Expectations?

Natural gas prices soared earlier this week on forecasts for a colder-than-normal pattern between November 28 and early December. NatGasWeather reported that frosty air in the northern U.S. is expected to elevate national demand during this period. Overnight weather model updates, however, introduced a slightly warmer outlook, sparking Friday’s pullback.

Despite the moderation, heating degree day (HDD) data from GFS and EC models remain well above normal, supporting expectations for robust heating demand. If subsequent weather updates restore a colder bias, price recovery could be swift.

Are Storage Levels Adding Downward Pressure?

The latest EIA storage report showed a small draw of 3 Bcf, leaving total working gas at 3,969 Bcf as of November 15. Current inventories are 141 Bcf higher than last year and 239 Bcf above the five-year average of 3,730 Bcf. While this drawdown was less bearish than the forecasted 2 Bcf injection, elevated supply levels continue to weigh on the market, underscoring the need for sustained demand increases to drive further price rallies.

What’s the Market Outlook?

In the short term, natural gas faces bearish risks if support at $3.168 fails, potentially opening the door to further declines toward $3.044–$3.057. Conversely, colder weather forecasts could cap losses and reignite bullish momentum if resistance at $3.332 and $3.573 is breached. For now, ample supply and slightly moderating weather suggest cautious sentiment, tilting the market toward a bearish outlook.

• Silver price soars to near $31.40 on heightened geopolitical tensions.
• Russia warned the UK to strike with intercontinental ballistic missiles that have a range of several thousand kilometers.
• Traders lean towards the option of an interest rate cut by the Fed in December.

Silver price (XAG/USD) strives to establish above $31.00 in Friday’s European session. The white metal surges to near $31.40 as demand for safe-haven bets has strengthened after Russia launched intercontinental ballistic missiles with a range of several thousand kilometers on Ukraine’s defense facilities in Dnipro.

The move appeared as retaliation given that Ukraine used United States (US) supplied ATACMS weapons and the United Kingdom (UK) provided storm shadow missiles to attack deep in Russia over the week.

Russian President Vladimir Putin has also warned the UK to strike with the same ballistic missile that their defense facility used against Ukraine, PA Media reported. Putin stated that their nation is entitled to use weapons against those nations who supplies weapons to Ukraine.

In response to that, the spokesperson of UK Prime Minister Keir Starmer said, “Only serves to strengthen our resolve and to ensure that Ukraine has what it needs to act in self-defense against Russia’s reckless and illegal invasion.”

The scenario of heightened geopolitical uncertainty improves the demand for safe-haven assets, such as Silver.

Apart from Silver, the safe-haven appeal of the US Dollar (USD) has also strengthened. The US Dollar Index (DXY), which gauges Greenback’s value against six major currencies, posts a fresh two-year high at 108.00.

Meanwhile, investors look for fresh cues about the Federal Reserve’s (Fed) likely interest rate action in the December meeting. According to the CME FedWatch tool, there is a 56% chance that the Fed will cut interest rates by 25 basis points (bps) to 4.25%-4.50%.

Silver technical analysis

Silver price delivers a mean-reversion move to near the 20-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) around $31.40 after declining to near $29.70. The white metal weakened after the breakdown of the horizontal support plotted from the May 21 high of $32.50.

The upward-sloping trendline from the February 29 low of $22.30 will act as key support for the Silver price around $29.50.

The 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) oscillates in the 40.00-60.00 range, suggesting a sideways trend.

Silver daily chart

• Silver price gains ground due to safe-haven flows amid the rising Russia-Ukraine conflict.
• Russian President Vladimir Putin warned that the Ukraine conflict is escalating into a global confrontation.
• The non-interest-bearing Silver may find challenges due to the higher opportunity cost associated with higher interest rates.

Silver price (XAG/USD) retraces its recent losses, trading around $31.00 per troy ounce during the Asian hours on Friday. The prices of safe-haven assets like Silver gained ground due to the escalated situation in the Russia-Ukraine war.

Russian President Vladimir Putin warned on Thursday that the Ukraine conflict is escalating toward a global confrontation, citing the use of US and British-supplied weapons by Ukraine to target Russia, according to Reuters.

Putin stated that Russia had retaliated by deploying a new hypersonic medium-range ballistic missile against a Ukrainian military facility, with further strikes possible. He added that civilians would receive warnings ahead of any future attacks involving these weapons.

Meanwhile, commodity traders continued to evaluate the Federal Reserve’s (Fed) monetary policy outlook following the unexpected drop in US Initial Jobless Claims. Claims fell to 213,000 for the week ending November 15, down from a revised 219,000 (previously 217,000) in the prior week and below the forecast of 220,000. This development has fueled speculation about a slower pace of Fed rate cuts.

Futures traders now see a 57.8% chance of the Federal Reserve cutting rates by a quarter point, down from around 72.2% last week, according to data from the CME FedWatch Tool. Non-interest-bearing Silver may face challenges due to the higher opportunity cost associated with higher interest rates.

However, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago President Austan Goolsbee commented on Thursday that inflation is on track to reach 2%. Goolsbee noted that over the next year, interest rates are likely to be significantly lower than their current levels. He also suggested that it might be prudent to slow the pace of rate cuts as the Fed approaches a neutral rate level.

Initial Short-term Target Zone Reached

Initial targets from two rising ABCD patterns (orange, purple) were reached today, along the 127.2% extended target of a smaller ABCD pattern (light blue). That could lead to a deeper pullback to test support levels before natural gas is ready to proceed higher.

In addition, the 3.39 swing high from January was reclaimed. That swing high is part of the price structure of lower swing highs. Each time natural gas breaks out above a swing high it continues to show strength. Key levels to watch for support include the 3.16 swing high and the 3.02 swing high. A little lower is Wednesday’s low of 2.94, which is close to the top boundary line for the symmetrical triangle. Below there is the 20-Day MA at 2.82.

Pullback Should Find Support Above 3.02 if Bulls Remain in Charge

Nevertheless, if a pullback comes before a new trend high, it will likely be met with support that turns the price of natural gas back up. Yesterday’s bull breakout was potentially significant as several breakouts were triggered around the same time. So far, the bullish reaction following the initial 3.02 breakout is supportive of higher prices. A key upside target is the 2023 peak of 3.64. It makes up part of the downtrend structure. There are also a couple extended targets from the rising ABCD patterns around that level.

Triangle Pattern Points to 3.78

A decisive breakout above that peak would trigger a continuation of the developing uptrend and further confirm the breakout of the triangle pattern. The measure of the larger triangle, that includes the 1.52 swing low, points to a potential target of 3.78 when based on a percentage move. That is above the 2023 peak. When measuring the price distance, the target is around 4.93.

For a look at all of today’s economic events, check out our economic calendar.

• Silver price recovers mildly above $31.00 on heightened geopolitical tensions.
• Ukraine launched UK-supplied missiles in Russia, resulting in a fresh escalation in the war.
• Investors await the flash US S&P Global PMI for November.

Silver price (XAG/USD) bounces back slightly above $31.00 in Thursday’s North American session after a corrective to near $30.80 on Wednesday. The white metal rebounds on fresh escalation in the Russia-Ukraine war, which forced investors to flee to safe-haven assets, such as Silver.

Geopolitical tensions renewed as Ukraine launched United Kingdom (UK)-supplied missiles into Russia, a day after it fired Army Tactical Missile System (ATACMS) provided by United States (US) President Joe Biden that fuelled risks of third world war.

Historically, the appeal of safe-haven assets, such as Silver, improves in times of uncertainty or heightened geopolitical risks.

The outlook of the Silver price remains uncertain as investors doubt whether the Federal Reserve (Fed) will cut interest rates again in the December meeting. The probability of the Fed to cut interest rates by 25 bps to 4.25%-4.50% in December has come down to 56% from 72% a week ago, according to the CME FedWatch tool.

Meanwhile, the US Dollar Index (DXY), which tracks the Greenback’s value against six major currencies, wobbles around 106.60. 10-year US Treasury yields hover around 4.40%.

Going forward, investors will focus on the preliminary S&P Global PMI data for November, which will be published on Friday. Economists expect the overall private sector activity to have improved.

Silver technical analysis

Silver price stays on track toward the upward-sloping trendline around $29.00, plotted from the February low of $22.30, which also coincides with the 200-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA). The white metal faces selling pressure near the 20-day EMA, which trades around $31.40.

The asset weakened after the breakdown of the horizontal support plotted from the May 21 high of $32.50.

The 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) slides to near 40.00. A bearish momentum will trigger if the RSI (14) sustains below the same.

Silver daily chart

• Prices of Gold extended their march north to the $2,670 zone.
• The US Dollar maintained its bid bias amid higher US yields.
• XAU/USD’s immediate up-barrier now comes at $2,700/oz.

Gold prices extended their climb on Thursday, supported by steady geopolitical tensions, despite a firm session for the US Dollar (USD) and modest gains in US yields across the board.

The ongoing uncertainty surrounding the Russia-Ukraine conflict, combined with broader market instability, has underpinned the precious metal’s strong rebound this week. 

Gold marked its fourth consecutive session of gains, surpassing the $2,670 mark per troy ounce and shifting focus toward the critical $2,700 resistance level. This zone poses a significant challenge as bullion looks to build on its recovery momentum.

The rally also coincided with a stronger USD, bolstered by the ongoing “Trump-trade” rally, and US yields, which regained some strength across various maturities.

As the week progresses, attention will turn to key global economic data releases, with preliminary Purchasing Managers’ Indexes (PMIs) set to take center stage toward the week’s end. 

Additionally, market participants are closely following comments from central bank officials, particularly after Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell’s recent cautious statements. Powell highlighted the resilience of the US economy but stressed the importance of prudence when evaluating potential future rate cuts.

Looking ahead, gold may face increased scrutiny as recent US economic data and expectations of inflationary Republican policies have heightened the likelihood of interest rates remaining elevated for an extended period. While gold is traditionally viewed as a hedge against inflation, higher interest rates tend to diminish its appeal due to the metal’s lack of yield.

From a market positioning standpoint, speculative interest in gold has weakened. Non-commercial traders reduced their net long positions to approximately 236.5K contracts as of November 12, the lowest level since early June, according to the latest CFTC positioning report. This reduction in long positions, coupled with a second consecutive decline in open interest, indicates a potential loss of momentum in gold’s recent upward trajectory.

Gold daily chart

XAU/USD short-term technical outlook

The daily chart for XAU/USD shows a continuation of the recent breakout of the bullish 100-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) at $2,557, which is near the November low of $2,536. Moving higher, the current weekly peak at $2,673 (November 21) marks the first key resistance area. Beyond this, the next target is the $2,700 round level, followed by the weekly high of $2,749 (November 5).

On the downside, a swift break below the 100-day SMA could shift focus toward the November low of $2,536 (November 14), which serves as a decent support level.

In the short term, the 4-hour chart suggests further room for the current recovery to progress. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) has deflated to the sub-68 region, while the Average Directional Index (ADX) at nearly 40 is indicative that the current uptrend is gathering strength.

Looking upward, the next key resistance to watch is $2,673, followed by the critical 200-day SMA at $2,678. On the downside, the 55-SMA comes first at $2,613, ahead of $2,536.

• Silver price may appreciate as daily chart analysis suggests a possible momentum shift from bearish to bullish.
• The key resistance area appears at the descending channel’s upper boundary, aligned with the 14-day EMA at $31.27.
• The primary support would be found around its “throwback support” at the psychological level of $30.00.

Silver price (XAG/USD) appreciates to near $31.10 per troy ounce during the European hours on Thursday. The daily chart analysis suggests a possible shift in momentum from bearish to bullish as the pair attempts to break above the upper boundary of the descending channel pattern. 

Furthermore, the 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) is currently positioned just below the 50 level, indicating the potential for a momentum reversal. A decisive break above the 50 mark would confirm the development of a bullish bias.

In terms of the upside, the Silver price tests a key resistance zone near the upper boundary of the descending channel, which aligns with the 14-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) at $31.27. A decisive break above this region could trigger the bullish bias, paving the way for a move toward the psychological resistance of $32.00.

On the downside, the Silver price may find support around its “throwback support” at the psychological level of $30.00. A break below this level could deepen bearish sentiment, potentially driving the price lower toward the descending channel’s bottom boundary at $28.50.

XAG/USD: Daily Chart

• Silver prices have appreciated following Ukraine’s launch of British Storm Shadow cruise missiles into Russia.
• Moscow has warned that using Western weapons to strike Russian territory far from the border would significantly escalate the conflict.
• Silver prices could face challenges due to a bleak outlook for the metal’s industrial use.

Silver price (XAG/USD) retraces its recent losses from the previous session, trading around $31.00 during the Asian hours on Thursday. The rise in precious metal prices is attributed to safe-haven flows amid escalating tensions in the Russia-Ukraine war.

On Wednesday, Ukraine launched a volley of British Storm Shadow cruise missiles into Russia, marking the latest deployment of Western weaponry against Russian targets. This follows Ukraine’s use of US ATACMS missiles the previous day.

According to a Reuters report, video footage posted by Russian war correspondents on Telegram showed black smoke rising in a residential area of the Kursk region, which borders northeastern Ukraine.

At least 14 large explosions were heard, most preceded by the sharp whistle of what sounded like incoming missiles. Moscow has stated that the use of Western weapons to strike Russian territory far from the border would significantly escalate the conflict.

However, Silver prices have been under pressure due to a bleak outlook for the metal’s industrial use. On Wednesday, the People’s Bank of China (PBoC) Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) decided to keep the benchmark interest rate at 3.1% for November. Higher interest rates in China, a major global manufacturing hub for electronics, solar panels, and automotive components, are expected to dampen industrial demand for Silver.

Furthermore, market expectations indicate that the incoming Donald Trump administration will spur inflation, which could slow down the Federal Reserve’s rate cut trajectory, thus exerting downward pressure on non-interest-bearing assets like Silver.

• Gold price sits at eight-day highs above $2,650 early Thursday, eyeing a weekly rebound.
• Geopolitical risks continue to support the traditional safe-haven Gold price ahead of Fedspeak.
• Gold price must scale 50-day SMA resistance at $2,660 as daily RSI peeps into the bullish zone.    

Gold price is sitting at the highest level in over a week above the $2,650 barrier in the Asian trading hours on Thursday. All eyes remain on the speeches from several US Federal Reserve (Fed) policymakers and Russia and Ukraine geopolitical updates, in the absence of top-tier US economic data releases.   

Gold price buyers appear unstoppable

Gold price extends its recovery mode into a fourth straight session early Thursday, helped by a modest pullback in the US Dollar (USD) and the US Treasury bond yields.

The USD rallied hard on Wednesday, tracking the sharp gains in the US bond yields as traders reinforced the Trump trades optimism, digesting hawkish Fed commentary and poor 20-year bond auction results.

Most of the Fed officials who spoke on Wednesday sound a bit hawkish, prompting markets scale back their expectations of a 25 basis points (bps) interest rate cut in December.

Fed Governor Michelle Bowman said that “the US central bank should pursue a cautious approach on monetary policy.” She was the most hawkish of the lot. Fed Governor Lisa Cook noted that timing of further interest-rate cuts will depend on coming data, leaving the central bank’s decision at its December meeting uncertain.

However, Kansas Fed President Jeffrey Schmid said that “now is the time to dial back restrictiveness of policy. I see full employment, inflation trending lower and solid growth.” Boston Fed President Susan Collins also sounded dovish, saying that “some additional rate cuts are needed as the policy is still restrictive.”

Markets are now pricing in a 52% chance of 25 bps Dec Fed rate cut, the CME Group’s FedWatch Tool shows, down from about 83% seen a week ago.

Despite the hawkish shift in the Fed expectations and Trump trades optimism, Gold price stood tall and benefited from intensifying geopolitical tensions between Russia and Ukraine.

Russia, on Wednesday, staged “a massive information-psychological attack” against Ukraine by spreading a fake warning, purportedly from Ukrainian military intelligence, about an imminent mass air attack.

This response came in after Russia’s Defence Ministry confirmed Tuesday that Ukraine fired six US-made Army Tactical Missile Systems (ATACMS) missiles at Bryansk region, just days after US President Joe Biden allowed the Ukrainian use of American-made weapons to strike inside Russia. The Kremlin also threatened a nuclear response to Ukranian’s non-nuclear attacks.

Amidst rife Russia-Ukraine conflict, Gold price is likely to stay supported but the upcoming Fed commentaries could reinforce sellers. Additionally, if risk-aversion hits the roof in the sessions ahead, the USD could regain traction on a flight to safety, capping the Gold price upside.

Traders remain nervous after the American AI giant Nvidia Corp.’s lackluster revenue forecast. Nvidia’s revenue rose 94% to $35.1 billion in the fiscal third quarter with the data centre unit, the biggest division, seeing its revenue double from a year earlier to $30.8 billion.

Gold price technical analysis: Daily chart

The short-term technical outlook for Gold price appears to lean in favor of buyers as the 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) prods the 50 level to the upside. The indicator is currently just above 50.

However, an impending Bear Cross could be a headwind for Gold price. The 21-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) is closing in to cut the 50-day SMA from above. If that happens on a daily closing basis, it will validate the bearish crossover.

Gold buyers need a daily candlestick closing above the 50-day SMA at $2,660 to unleash additional recovery toward the 21-day SMA at $2,680.

The $2,700 threshold will be the next significant target for buyers.

Conversely, failure to find acceptance above the 50-day SMA at $2,660 on a daily closing basis could reinforce sellers toward the $2,600 threshold.

Tuesday’s low of $2,610 will be tested ahead of that.