Inside Week Breakout Triggered

A bullish breakout from an inside week triggered yesterday on a move above 2.82. Then today, an attempted breakout from a symmetrical triangle pattern occurred. Notice that the purple 20-Day MA has turned up and is moving further away from the 50-Day MA showing improved momentum.

The 20-Day line is potential support during a deeper pullback, along with the 50-Day MA at 2.66. Although it is starting to look like natural gas wants to go higher, it may not occur before a period of consolidation. This would allow demand to stack up as market participants await the potential symmetrical triangle breakout.

Triangle Breakout Triggers Above 3.02

An upside breakout of the triangle will be indicated on a rally the 3.02 swing high and then confirmed by a daily close above that high. That high is part of the price structure of lower swing highs that occurred after 2023 peak. A decisive rise above it will trigger a breakout of the triangle and provide a trend continuation signal for the rising trend that began from the August low.

Target Zone from 2.35 to 2.45

There is an initial potential upside target that has been identified on the chart from 2.35 to 2.45. Nonetheless, an earlier target from a nearby rising ABCD pattern (green) shows an initial target at 3.22 and a secondary target that is with the target zone. You can see on the chat that there are three rising ABCD patterns, each assessing a different portion of the swings. Once a second swing from (CD) matches the price change in the first leg up (AB), there is price symmetry and a potential pivot. As with all pivots, resistance may follow, or a bull breakout indicates a continuation.

For a look at all of today’s economic events, check out our economic calendar.

• OPEC cuts oil demand growth forecasts for 2024 and 2025, citing concerns about the Chinese economy.
• China’s stimulus measures have failed to impress, and the country’s economic outlook remains a concern.
• Technical analysis suggests that oil prices are eyeing a bounce but could face resistance around $74.00 and $76.35.

Most Read: Gold (XAU/USD) Prices Slide as US Dollar (DXY) Rally Continues

Oil prices are holding firm today following a 5% decline over the previous two trading days. A stronger US Dollar and hopes of a Middle East peace deal have also weighed on Oil prices as markets digest the potential impacts from a Trump Presidency.

OPEC Cuts Demand Forecast for 2024 and 2025

OPEC released its monthly report today which showed a fourth consecutive downgrade of its forecast for both 2024 and 2025. OPEC said world oil demand would rise by 1.82 million barrels per day in 2024, down from growth of 1.93 million bpd forecast last month. For 2025, OPEC estimated global demand growth at 1.54 million bpd from 1.64 million bpd.

Continuing on from last month, China was the main factor in the economic downgrade for 2024. OPEC lowered its prediction for China’s oil demand growth to 450,000 barrels per day, down from 580,000 barrels per day. Furthermore, China’s diesel consumption dropped in September compared to the same time last year, continuing a seven-month trend of decreases.

On China OPEC stressed that Diesel has been under pressure from a slowdown in construction amid weak manufacturing activity, combined with the ongoing deployment of LNG-fuelled trucks. China has been a point of concern for the majority of 2024 and even more so when it comes to Oil demand. 

This downgrade comes soon after OPEC + announced it would not unwind the most recent layer of cuts of 2.2 million bpd from December but said on Nov. 3 it will delay the plan for a month. The Oil cartel cited concerns around weakening demand and supply outside of OPEC + are currently maintaining downward pressure on Oil prices.

China Stimulus Fails to Impress

Beijing announced a 10-trillion-yuan ($1.4 trillion) debt package on Friday to help local governments deal with financial problems. This follows recent stimulus measures in September as well which so far seem to have failed to lead to any meaningful change. The Macro economic outlook for China remains a concern with many analysts downgrading their forecasts of late. 

This week’s decision comes as China deals with challenges from Donald Trump’s re-election as U.S. president, who has threatened to increase tariffs on Chinese goods. The impact of this could see the Chinese economy struggle to achieve its 2025 GDP targets as well and could in part explain the reasoning for the OPEC downgrades. 

Technical Analysis

From a technical perspective, Oil prices started the week on the back foot following a losing week and a very bearish Friday after rejecting the key resistance zone at 76.35. 

As things stand however the daily candle is on course to close bullish, up around 0.90% on the day. A daily close here will lead to a higher low which would hint at further upside and potentially a fresh high above the 76.35 handle. 

A boost in oil prices could materialize should concerns around a wider Middle East conflict return to the fore. President Elect Donald Trump has been recruiting Cabinet members already which could add a risk premium on the chance of peace in the Middle East. 

If markets perceive any appointments as being pro-war, the idea of a regional conflict involving Iran is likely to rear its ugly head. This in turn could send fears around Oil supply etc to the fore. 

A continued recovery from here faces some resistance around 74.00 before the recent highs at 76.35 come into focus. 

Looking at the downside, a potential candle close below the 71.40 (recent swing low) could send Oil prices back below the key psychological 70.00 handle with 69.52 and 68.17 further areas of interest on the downside. 

Brent Crude Oil Daily Chart, November 12, 2024

Source: TradingView (click to enlarge)

Support

• 74.63
• 72.38
• 70.00 (key area of confluence)

Resistance

Follow Zain on Twitter/X for Additional Market News and Insights @zvawda

Content is for general information purposes only. It is not investment advice or a solution to buy or sell securities. Opinions are the authors; not necessarily that of OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc. or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. If you would like to reproduce or redistribute any of the content found on MarketPulse, an award winning forex, commodities and global indices analysis and news site service produced by OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc., please access the RSS feed or contact us at info@marketpulse.com. Visit https://www.marketpulse.com/ to find out more about the beat of the global markets. © 2023 OANDA Business Information & Services Inc.

XAU/USD Current price: $2,599.70

• Prevalent US Dollar demand pushed Gold to its lowest since mid-September.
• The United States will release the October Consumer Price Index on Wednesday.
• XAU/USD slides for a third consecutive day, sellers are not yet done.

Spot Gold consolidates around the $2,600 mark on Tuesday after extending its recent slide to $2,589.57 a troy ounce, its lowest since September. Demand for the US Dollar (USD) dominates financial boards in a so far, data-light week, with the focus still on United States (US) political developments and their possible effects on the global economy. Tariffs-related anxiety reached European shores amid a continued economic setback in the Old Continent, while a political crisis in Germany intensified concerns.

Meanwhile, the poor stocks’ performance further fuels US Dollar demand. Most Asian and European indexes closed in the red, while Wall Street pared its latest advance. The three major indexes post losses, albeit limited.

Investors will closely follow upcoming US data. The country will publish the October Consumer Price Index (CPI) on Wednesday, foreseen at 0.2% MoM and 2.6% YoY, the latter higher than the previous 2.4%. The annual core CPI, however, is expected to remain steady at 3.3%.  Other than that, market participants will keep speculating about what Trump’s return to the White House will mean for the US and the rest of the world.

XAU/USD short-term technical outlook  

From a technical point of view, XAU/USD is poised to extend its decline. In the daily chart, the pair has fallen even further below its 20 Simple Moving Average (SMA), which slowly gains downward traction. The 100 and 200 SMAs keep heading higher below the current level, with the shorter one providing dynamic support at around $2,537.80. Technical indicators, in the meantime, have decelerated their slides well into the negative territory, not enough yet to consider a potential reversal or an interim bottom.

In the near term, and according to the 4-hour chart, the risk clearly skews to the downside. The 20 SMA head firmly south, well-below the longer ones, which also grind south. Finally, technical indicators resumed their slides after correcting extreme oversold conditions, still suggesting lower lows ahead.

Support levels: 2,588.70 2,572.45 2,560.65

Resistance levels: 2,612.60 2,627.10 2,639.05  

• Silver price weakens as Trump’s victory is expected to boost US growth and consumer spending.
• The US Dollar rallies on expectations that the Fed could follow a slower policy-easing approach.
• Investors expect the Fed to cut interest rates by 25 bps in December.

Silver price (XAG/USD) falls further to near $30.20 in European trading hours on Tuesday. The white metal weakens as the US Dollar (USD) strengthens on expectations that President-elected Donald Trump’s policies will boost the United States (US) economic growth and inflationary pressures.

The US Dollar Index (DXY), which tracks the Greenback’s value against six major currencies, inches close to the key resistance of 106.00. The higher US Dollar makes the Silver price an expensive bet for investors. Meanwhile, 10-year US Treasury yields jump to near 4.37%. Higher yields on interest-bearing assets reduce the opportunity cost of holding an investment in non-yielding assets, such as Silver.

Trump vowed to raise import tariffs by 10% and lower corporate taxes in his election campaign, a move that will increase demand for domestic goods, boost labor demand and business investment, which will eventually prompt inflationary pressures and allow the Federal Reserve (Fed) to follow a more gradual rate-cut cycle.

In the December meeting, there is a 65% chance that the Fed will cut interest rates by 25 basis points (bps) to 4.25%-4.50%, according to the CME FedWatch tool.

Going forward, investors will focus on the US Consumer Price Index (CPI) data for October, which will be released on Wednesday for fresh interest rate guidance. Also, a slew of Fed officials, including Chair Jerome Powell, are set to speak this week.

Apart from the US Dollar’s strength, an absence of direct stimulus in the Chinese economic package to revive the economy has also weighed on the Silver price. Silver, as a metal, has applications in various industries associated with renewable energy and mining. A scenario of bleak growth in China weighs on the Silver price.

Silver technical analysis

Silver price declines toward the upward-sloping trendline around $29.00, plotted from the February 28 low of $22.30. The white metal weakened after breaking below the horizontal support plotted from the May 21 high of $32.50.

The near-term trend of the Silver price has weakened as the 20-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) starts declining, which trades around $30.26.

The 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) slides below 40.00. A bearish momentum will trigger if the RSI (14) sustains below the same.

Silver daily chart

Experts predict that coffee prices on November 9, 2024 may increase depending on the region and supply.

Experts say that with unfavorable weather conditions in major production areas and high demand from major markets, domestic coffee prices are likely to continue to benefit from the rise in international coffee prices.

Recorded in the trading session on November 8, 2024, today’s coffee price decreased by 1.000 VND/kg, ranging from 105.500-106.000 VND/kg. Currently, the average purchase price in the Central Highlands provinces is 105.800 VND/kg, the highest purchase price in the province Dak Nong, Dak Lak, Gia Lai, Kon Tum 106.000 VND/kg.

Specifically, the coffee purchase price in Gia Lai province (Chu Prong) is 106.000 VND, down 1.000 VND/kg compared to yesterday, in Pleiku and La Grai the same price is 105.900 VND/kg; In Kon Tum province, the price is 106.000 VND/kg, down 1.000 VND/kg compared to yesterday; In Dak Nong province, coffee is purchased at the highest price of 106.000 VND/kg, down 1.000 VND/kg compared to yesterday.

Price of green coffee beans (coffee beans, fresh coffee beans) in the province Lam Dong In districts such as Bao Loc, Di Linh, Lam Ha, coffee was purchased at 105.500 VND/kg, down 1.000 VND/kg compared to yesterday.

Domestic coffee price on 8/11 in Dak Lak province; in Cu M’gar district, coffee was purchased at about 106.000 VND/kg, down 1.000 VND/kg compared to yesterday, and in Ea H’leo district, Buon Ho town, coffee was purchased at the same price of 106.900 VND/kg.

Coffee price update world At 20:00 on November 8, 2024, Vietnam time on the London exchange, the price of Robusta coffee futures contract for monthly delivery January 2025 on the London exchange was at 4.425 USD/ton, down 61 USD compared to the beginning of the trading session.

Coffee price today November 8, 2024: Robusta coffee price on London floor. (Photo: Screenshot giacaphe.com

The monthly delivery term March 2025 is 4.364 USD/ton, down 60 USD; the monthly delivery term May 2025 is 4.310 USD/ton, down 55 USD and the monthly delivery term July 2025 is 4.229 USD/ton, down 53 USD.

Arabica coffee price on New York floor on November 8, 2024. (Photo: Screenshot of giacaphe.com)

Of which, the price of Arabica coffee on the New York floor at 20:00 on November 8, 2024 decreased in all terms, fluctuating at 249.80 – 254.20 cents/lb.

Specifically, the monthly delivery term December 2024 is 254.20 cents/lb; down 6.20 cents/lb compared to the beginning of the session. The monthly delivery term March 2025 is 253.65 cents/lb, down 6.10 cents/lb; the monthly delivery term May 2025 is 252.35 cents/lb, down 6 cents/lb and the monthly delivery term July 2025 is 249.80 cents/lb, down 5.95 cents/lb.

Brazilian Arabica coffee price on November 8, 2024.(Photo: Screenshot of giacaphe.com)

Brazilian Arabica coffee prices today at 21:00 p.m. November 8, 2024 increased and decreased in opposite directions. Specifically, the monthly delivery term December 2024 was 311.10 USD/ton, down 1.88%; the monthly delivery term March 2025 was 311.15 USD/ton, down 1.72%; the monthly delivery term May 2025 was 317.55 USD/ton, up 5.10% and the monthly delivery term July 2025 was 314.00 USD/ton, up 4.95%.

Robusta coffee traded on ICE Futures Europe (London floor) opens at 16:00 and closes at 00:30 (the next day), Vietnam time.

Arabica coffee on the ICE Futures US floor (New York floor) opens at 16:15 p.m. and closes at 01:30 a.m. (the next day), Vietnam time.

The end of the year is always the peak period for coffee consumption in many countries due to the demand for holidays and Tet. This puts pressure on supply, especially when major producing countries such as Brazil are reducing output due to adverse weather.

Low production in major producing countries: Unfavorable weather conditions in major coffee growing regions such as Brazil and Colombia have affected production, causing market concerns about global coffee supplies.

Information for reference only. Prices may vary depending on locality.

• Silver prices face challenges due to a reduced demand for safe-haven assets following Trump’s election victory.
• The demand for riskier assets improves as markets assess the potential impacts of the proposed Trump policies.
• The dollar-denominated Silver struggles due to a stronger US Dollar and rising Treasury yields.

Silver prices (XAG/USD) experiences a third consecutive day of declines, trading around $30.60 per troy ounce during the Asian session on Tuesday. The precious metals sector, including Silver, is facing pressure due to a reduced demand for safe-haven assets.

Traders are increasingly shifting toward riskier assets as markets assess the potential impacts of US President-Elect Trump’s potential fiscal policies and monetary strategies. The possibility of tariffs being implemented early in Trump’s presidency could lead to inflation, which in turn may cause the Federal Reserve (Fed) to delay its expected easing measures in the coming year.

As a result, the dollar-denominated Silver is also struggling amid a stronger Greenback and rising US Treasury yields. The US Dollar Index (DXY), which tracks the value of the US Dollar against six major currencies, is hovering near a four-month high at 105.70. Meanwhile, the yields on 2-year and 10-year US Treasury bonds are at 4.28% and 4.32%, respectively, at the time of writing.

China’s recent stimulus measures have fallen short of investor expectations, undermining earlier hopes for industrial support in the largest manufacturing hub and negatively impacting the outlook for industrial metals across the board. This has put additional pressure on Silver, which has significant usage in electrification, particularly in solar panels.

Last week, China announced a 10 trillion Yuan debt package aimed at easing local government financing pressures and boosting the economy. However, the package did not include direct economic stimulus measures, which many had hoped for.

Meanwhile, Chinese-owned solar panel manufacturers have begun scaling back production, partly due to concerns that Trump’s election victory in the US could lead to higher tariffs on the sector. Morgan Stanley has predicted that the Trump administration may impose immediate tariffs of 60% on imports from China.

Forecast of coffee prices on August 15, 2024, in the domestic market, increased again. According to data from the General Department of Customs, in July, Vietnam’s coffee exports reached 7 tons, worth 76.982 million USD, down 381,2% in volume but up 29,3% in value compared to the same period last year.

In particular, the average coffee export price last month reached a record of 4.951 USD/ton, up 7,8% over the previous month and up to 75,1% (equivalent to 2.123 USD/ton) over the same period. 2023.

In the first 7 months of this year, the export price of this agricultural product increased by 52,3% to an average of 3.682 USD/ton. Thanks to that, although export output decreased by 12,4% over the same period, the value still increased by 33,5%, reaching 979.353 tons, worth 3,6 billion USD.

With favorable price factors, the coffee industry is expected to bring in a record export turnover of 5 billion USD this year.

Regarding export markets, the European Union (EU) is still Vietnam’s largest coffee consumption market in the first 7 months of the year, accounting for 39% of total export volume with 381.699 tons, worth 1,37 billion USD. . Although the amount of coffee exported to the EU decreased by 10,7%, the value increased by 39% over the same period last year.

Of which, exports to key markets such as Germany, Italy and Spain reached 121.500 tons, 91.082 tons and 71.734 tons, respectively. Over the same period, the amount of coffee exported to Germany and Spain decreased by 11,6% and 14,5%, respectively, while exports to Italy increased by 17,8%.

Coffee exports to some other major markets such as Japan, the US and Russia have decreased significantly compared to the same period last year.

However, exports to Asian markets recorded strong growth, with Indonesia increasing by 50,4%; Philippines increased by 63,7%; China increased by 27,2%; Thailand increased by 68,7%; and Malaysia increased by 61,7%.

In the domestic market, coffee prices were updated at 4:30 a.m. on August 14, 2024 as follows, according to www.giacaphe.com, domestic coffee prices decreased slightly compared to yesterday, ranging from 117.800-118.500 VND/kg. Currently, the average purchase price in the Central Highlands provinces is 118.000 VND/kg, the highest purchase price in the province Dak Lak, Dak Nong is 119.300 VND/kg.

Specifically, the coffee purchase price in the province Gia Lai (Chu Prong) is 118.300 VND, in Pleiku and La Grai the same price is 118.200 VND/kg; in the province Kon Tum Coffee is purchased at 118.300 VND/kg; in Dak Nong province, coffee is purchased at the highest price of 118.500 VND/kg.

Price of green coffee beans (coffee beans, fresh coffee beans) in the province Lam Dong In districts such as Bao Loc, Di Linh, Lam Ha, coffee is purchased at 117.800 VND/kg.

Today’s coffee price on 14/8 in Dak Lak province is purchased at around 118.500 VND/kg; in Cu M’gar district, coffee is purchased at around 118.400 VND/kg, and in Ea H’leo district, Buon Ho town, it is purchased at the same price of 118.400 VND/kg.

Coffee price list today August 14, 2024

Coffee price update world At 20:30 on August 14, 2024 Vietnam time on the London exchange, the price of Robusta coffee futures contract for monthly delivery September 2024 on the London exchange was at 4.454 USD/ton, up 79 USD compared to the beginning of the trading session.

Coffee price today August 14, 2024: Robusta coffee price on London floor. (Photo: Screenshot giacaphe.com

The monthly delivery term November 2024 is 4.271 USD/ton, up 84 USD; the monthly delivery term January 2025 is 4.104 USD/ton, up 79 USD and the monthly delivery term March 2025 is 3.953 USD/ton, up 71 USD.

Today’s coffee price August 14, 2024: New York Arabica coffee price (Photo: Screenshot giacaphe.com

In particular, the price of Arabica coffee on the New York floor today at 20:30 p.m. on July 134, 8 increased in all terms, fluctuating at 2024 – 227.80 cents/lb.

Specifically, the monthly delivery term September 2024 is 234.80 cents/lb; up 2.10 cents/lb compared to the beginning of the session. The monthly delivery term December 2024 is 232.90 cents/lb, up 3.85 cents/lb; the monthly delivery term March 2025 is 230.10 cents/lb, up 3.80 cents/lb and the monthly delivery term May 2025 is 227.80 cents/lb, up 3.60 cents/lb.

Coffee price today August 14, 2024: Brazilian Arabica coffee price. (Photo: Screenshot giacaphe.com)

Brazilian Arabica coffee prices today at 20:30 on August 14, 2024 increased and decreased in opposite directions. Specifically, the monthly delivery term September 2024 was 293.90 USD/ton, up 1.21%; the monthly delivery term December 2024 was 285.40 USD/ton, up 1.19%; the monthly delivery term March 2025 was 276.30 USD/ton, down 4.18% and the monthly delivery term May 2025 was 272.40 USD/ton, down 4.10%.

Robusta coffee traded on ICE Futures Europe (London floor) opens at 16:00 and closes at 00:30 (the next day), Vietnam time.

Arabica coffee on the ICE Futures US floor (New York floor) opens at 16:15 p.m. and closes at 01:30 a.m. (the next day), Vietnam time.

Strong Robusta exports from Brazil are helping to offset supply shortages from Vietnam, traders said. Cecafe said Brazil’s Robusta coffee exports in the month of July 2024 surged 82,2% year-on-year to 2023 bags (900.000kg).

Agronomists say that light and localized frosts in Brazil occur strongly in the southern region of the country, basically not affecting coffee and sugarcane growing areas.

Brazilian coffee export association Cecafé also reported that total green coffee exports in the first seven months of 7 increased by 2024% over the same period last year, reaching 51,88 million bags. Of which, there were 25,83 million bags of Arabica coffee, an increase of 20,65% and 31,08 million bags of Robusta Conilon coffee, an increase of 5,18%, compared to the same period last year.

*Information is for reference only. Prices may change depending on time and location.

• Gold price attempts to bounce from two-month lows of $2,611 as Fedspeak awaits on Tuesday.  
• The US Dollar holds Trump trades-led upside despite sluggish Treasury yields and a better mood.
• Gold price recovery must find a foothold above $2,645 as the daily RSI stays bearish.

Gold price is seeing a dead cat bounce early Tuesday after being hammered down to two-month lows of $2,611 on Wednesday. Attention now turns to speeches from several US Federal Reserve (Fed) policymakers due later in the day for fresh hints on the central bank’s interest rate cut outlook.  

Gold buyers try their luck yet again

In the meantime, Gold traders are likely to take cues from the prevalent market sentiment and the US Dollar price action, as they continue to digest the latest measures under consideration by China to support its housing sector.

Citing people familiar with the matter, Bloomberg News reported that Chinese authorities are outlining a plan enabling major cities, such as Shanghai and Beijing, to reduce the deed tax for buyers to as low as 1%, down from the current rate of up to 3%.

Following the market’s disappointment over China’s 10 trillion yuan ($1.4 trillion) debt package, any additional supportive measures are unlikely to have any positive market impact, as traders remain wary of potential trade tariffs that could be imposed by US President-elect Donald Trump when he returns to office in January next year.

Also, traders refrain from placing fresh bets on the Gold price heading toward Wednesday’s high-impact US Consumer Price Index (CPI) inflation data, which could significantly impact the Fed’s path forward on rates and the US Dollar (USD).

That said, any upside attempt in Gold price could likely be limited as markets continue to favor the USD amid the ‘Trump trades’ and fading expectations of future rate cuts by the Fed.

A solid win for Trump in the US presidential race and a likely Republican majority in Congress have boosted expectations for a more straightforward path to implement his policies. Trump’s policies on foreign trade and tax cuts are seen as inflationary, which could dissuade the Fed from continuing its easing cycle. This, in turn, could support the USD at the expense of Gold price.

Markets are currently pricing in a 67% chance that the Fed will lower rates by 25 basis points (bps) in December, the CME Group’s FedWatch Tool showed, down from about 83% seen at the start of the month. Therefore, Fedspeak is eagerly awaited to seek more clues on the Fed’s rate cut outlook.

Gold price technical analysis: Daily chart

Having taken down all the major Fibonacci Retracement (Fibo) levels recently, Gold price Is consolidating the downside before the next push lower.

In doing so, Gold price has retraced the entire advance from the October 10 low of $2,604 to the all-time high of $2,790.

The 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) remains below the 50 level, keeping the downside risks well in place.

Any recovery in Gold price will need to find acceptance above the strong resistance near $2,645, where the 50-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) and the 78.6% Fibo level of the same ascent close in.

The next topside barriers are 61.8% Fibo and 50% Fibo supports-turned-resistances at $2,673 and $2,695, respectively.

If the downtrend regains traction, sellers will attack the October 10 low of $2,604, below which a test of the 100-day SMA at $2,538 will be inevitable in the coming days.

Potential Triangle Bull Breakout

As of today, there is a potential bull breakout of a symmetrical triangle formation approaching. A rise above the top line will provide an initial sign of a potential breakout. However, since the swing high of 3.02 is not too much higher, a decisive advance above that price level should provide a more reliable bullish signal as it will further confirm strength. A trendline break alone generally needs further confirmation for greater validation.

Price Structure Targets

Let’s look at a couple ways to consider upside targets. First, previous price structure marks potential resistance. Each prior swing high within the triangle pattern identifies a potential resistance zone as it was an area of resistance in the recent past as the triangle formation evolved. The swing high of 3.02 is followed by the peak from June at 3.16. Next up is the swing high from January at 3.39, followed by the 2023 peak at 3.64.

Price Symmetry Targets

Then, price symmetry is analyzed looking for potential pivots where there is a match between swings, A pivot area could lead to a pullback or a breakthrough. There are three rising ABCD patterns shown on the chart to highlight price symmetry. The largest pattern is shown in orange, and it begins from the April swing low (A).

Since it is the largest pattern as it covers the longest time frame, it identifies the potentially more significant price target, which is 3.45. The next rising ABCD pattern is in purple, and it points to a potential pivot at 3.35. A more recent and therefore smaller rising ABCD pattern in green points to a potential initial pilot of 3.22 for natural gas once a sustained breakout of the triangle occurs.

For a look at all of today’s economic events, check out our economic calendar.

• Silver prices break below 50-day SMA at $31.41, testing support at 100-day SMA at $30.28.
• Bearish momentum confirmed by RSI; further decline could target 200-day SMA at $28.55.
• Reclaiming $31.00 could see silver challenge resistance at 50-day SMA and November highs.

Silver price drops over 1.80% on Monday trading late in the New York session, trading below the $31.00 a troy ounce, amid worries about Trump’s second term could escalate a trade war. At the time of writing, the XAG/USD trades at $30.69, after hitting a daily high of $31.55.

XAG/USD Price Forecast: Technical outlook

The uptrend in Silver prices is intact, yet after falling below the 50-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) at $31.41, sponsored XAG’s leg down to test the 100-day SMA at $30.28. Indicators such as the Relative Strength Index (RSI) turned bearish, and drops further, an indication that if sellers clear the latest key support area between $30.00-$30.28, they would be in charge.

In that outcome, the next support would be the 200-day SMA at $28.55, followed by the September 6 low of $27.69

Conversely, if buyers reclaim $31.00, look for a test of the 50-day SMA. Once cleared, the next supply zone would be the November 7 high at $32.15.

XAG/USD Price Chart – Daily