Notice that a downward sloping consolidation pattern formed recently, showing a small descending channel. Given its location further into a downtrend and at a key long-term support zone, this pattern might have an impact like a bullish falling wedge. It is too early to say but something to watch as it could help identify a potential bullish reversal signal. Currently, a bullish reversal would be indicated on a rally above Friday’s high of $3.13. While a rise above Monday’s high of $3.08 will show strength, not enough to indicate that the advance might be sustainable.
Price Will Show the Way
The more fight there is between buyers and sellers near the bottom, the greater the potential for a reversal when it comes. Although there are lower targets for natural gas that might be reached, if a low was going to be established, it is in the area to do it. The AVWAP line shows $2.97, and it should be seen as an area of price. If a bullish reversal follows before a new trend low, then a new high swing low will be completed. That would be a bullish sign if it occurs.
AVWAP Has a History of Support
A swing low from April at $2.86 found support and reversed from the AVWAP line. That low is also a monthly low and confirmed by a 20-Month MA, now at $2.85. Therefore, it is potentially significant, either for a bullish reversal or a breakdown. Either way, if $2.86 is approached, a breakdown from two long-term trend indicators will be violated. That would indicate the potential for further downward pressure in prices.
For a look at all of today’s economic events, check out our economic calendar.
US President Donald Trump threatened the EU after announcing a deal on Monday.
The US ISM Services Purchasing Managers’ Index contracted to 50.1 in June.
XAU/USD is bullish in the near term, but still needs to conquer $3,400.
Gold price maintains its positive momentum on Wednesday, reaching a fresh weekly high in the $3,390 area during American trading hours. The bright metal surged following the release of the United States (US) ISM Services Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI), as the indicator came in worse than anticipated, barely printing at 50.1 in July, below the 50.8 posted in June and missing expectations of 51.5.
Meanwhile, US President Donald Trump threatens tariffs left and right: following news on Monday indicating massive levies on India, Trump said it would hit the Eurozone with tariffs of 35% if they fail to fulfil their commitments.
Additionally, the personal war between the US President and Federal Reserve (Fed) Chair Jerome Powell continues. On the one hand, he said that Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent is not a candidate to lead the Fed, as he should remain in his current position. On the other hand, he is working on replacing Fed Governor Adriana Kugler, who unexpectedly resigned, effective on Friday, with a candidate who advocates for interest rate cuts.
The poor performance of Wall Street following dismal US data and higher US Treasury yields reflects the souring mood.
The American macroeconomic calendar has little to offer on Wednesday, while the upcoming Asian session will bring the New Zealand monthly employment report. Later in the day, the EU will publish June Retail Sales.
XAU/USD short-term technical outlook
The daily chart for the XAU/USD pair shows it met buyers around a mildly bullish 20 Simple Moving Average (SMA) for a second consecutive day, with the indicator currently at around $3,347. The same chart shows the 100 and 200 SMAs maintain their bullish slopes below the shorter one, in line with the bulls’ dominance. Technical indicators, however, barely hold above their midlines, lacking directional strength. Overall, the risk skews to the upside, but the momentum is missing.
The near-term picture seems more encouraging for bulls. In the 4-hour chart, the XAU/USD pair bottomed around a flat 100 SMA, while a bullish 20 SMA aims to cross above it, usually a sign of directional continuation. Finally, technical indicators resumed their advances near overbought readings, hinting at persistent upward pressure.
Platinum price formed some bullish waves, to hit $1355.00 level, to bounce quickly to settle below the barrier at $1342.00 level, affected by stochastic negativity, which approaches from 50 level as appears in the above image.
The stability of this barrier will force the price to delay the bullish attempts, to increase the chances for forming new bearish correctional waves to target $1290.00 level reaching 38.2%Fibonacci correction level at $1255.00, while breaching it will open the way for activating the bullish attack to target $1366.00 level initially reaching the resistance at $1400.00.
The expected trading range for today is between $1290.00 and $1342.00
Gold price looks to extend the recovery into its fourth straight day on Tuesday.
The US Dollar remains vulnerable amid increased rate cut bets, tariffs and Fed concerns.
Gold price must close Tuesday above the key $3,380 resistance as the daily RSI stays bullish.
Gold price is flirting with weekly highs near $3,380 in the Asian trading hours on Tuesday, with buyers looking forward to the US ISM Services PMI data for a fresh boost.
Gold price looks north amid dovish Fed expectations
A surprisingly strong China’s Caixin Services PMI data, which came in at 52.6 in July, bolstered risk appetite.
Meanwhile, increased bets that the US Federal Reserve (Fed) will lower interest rates in September continue to underpin risk sentiment at the expense of the US Dollar (USD), keeping the non-yielding Gold price afloat.
Strong US labor data combined with San Francisco Fed President Mary Daly’s dovish remarks have almost sealed in a September Fed rate cut, with markets now pricing in a 90.5% probability of such a move, the CME Group’s FedWatch Tool shows.
The Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) reported Friday that the US economy added 73,000 jobs for July, above the June revision of 14,000 but below even the meagre estimate for a gain of 110,000. The Unemployment Rate ticked higher to 4.2% in the month, as expected.
Daly said on Monday, “we may do fewer than two cuts. The more likely thing is we need to do more.
“The job market is not precariously weak, but it is softening, and further softening would be unwelcome,” she added.
Additionally, concerns over the Fed’s independence and the credibility of economic data remain a drag on the Greenback.
US President Donald Trump fired the US Labor Department’s statistical leader, Erika L. McEntarfer, after the weak jobs report on Friday.
Markets believe that the dismissal of BLS Commissioner Erika McEntarfer may be part of a broader strategy to undermine the credibility of official inflation data, eventually impacting the Fed’s independence.
These factors render positive for the bright metal, supporting its recovery from monthly troughs.
The next leg higher in Gold price, however, depends on the US ISM Services PMI data for July, which is seen rising to 51.5 from 50.8 in June.
Strong ISM data could shake off some of the recent dovishness surrounding the Fed’s next policy, lifting the USD while fuelling a brief corrective decline in Gold price.
A slowdown in the services sector could intensify concerns over the US economic resilience amid weakening labor market conditions, which could trigger a fresh USD downtrend, boosting the bullion.
Gold traders will also closely scrutinize trade headlines and Fedspeak for fresh trading incentives.
Gold price technical analysis: Daily chart
The daily chart shows that the technical setup remains in favor of Gold buyers.
The 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) is sitting above the midline, currently near 55, suggesting that any dip could be quickly bought into.
Adding credence to the bullish potential, the 21-day is primed to cross the 50-day SMA for upside, which if materialized on a daily closing basis will confirm a Bull Cross.
Gold buyers need a daily candlestick closing above the rising trendline support at $3,380 to regain the $3,400 threshold. Further, the $3,440 static resistance will come into play once again.
Conversely, strong support is placed at the 21-day SMA and 50-day SMA confluence near $3,345. A sustained move below that level will open up further downside toward the $3,300 round figure. The last line of defense for Gold buyers is the 100-day SMA at $3,279.
Economic Indicator
ISM Services PMI
The Institute for Supply Management (ISM) Services Purchasing Managers Index (PMI), released on a monthly basis, is a leading indicator gauging business activity in the US services sector, which makes up most of the economy. The indicator is obtained from a survey of supply executives across the US based on information they have collected within their respective organizations. Survey responses reflect the change, if any, in the current month compared to the previous month. A reading above 50 indicates that the services economy is generally expanding, a bullish sign for the US Dollar (USD). A reading below 50 signals that services sector activity is generally declining, which is seen as bearish for USD.
The GBPCHF price formed some bullish correctional trading, to approach from the moving average of 55 near 1.0765, taking advantage of providing positive momentum by stochastic, to retest an important barrier again.
The main stability within the bearish channel’s levels, which forms an extension for the main resistance at 1.0810 level besides forming an extra barrier at 1.0775 level, these factors make us wait for gathering the negative momentum, which allows it to renew the negative attempts that might target 1.0710 and 1.0660.
The expected trading range for today is between 1.0770 and 1.0710
Copper price forced to provide more of the sideways trading, delaying its bullish attempts due to the contradiction between the main indicators by stochastic reach below 50 level, the main stability above the bullish channel’s support at $4.0500, besides the attempt of forming an extra support at $4.2600 level, we will keep our bullish suggestion in the current period trading, to wait for achieving some gains by its rally to $4.6300 reaching the next barrier near $4.7500.
Note that breaking the extra support will confirm the chances for providing strong pressure on the mentioned bullish channel’s support, to keep monitoring the price behavior according to this level by detecting the main trend in the upcoming period trading.
The expected trading range for today is between $4.2600 and $4.6300
Platinum price formed some bullish waves, to hit $1355.00 level, to bounce quickly to settle below the barrier at $1342.00 level, affected by stochastic negativity, which approaches from 50 level as appears in the above image.
The stability of this barrier will force the price to delay the bullish attempts, to increase the chances for forming new bearish correctional waves to target $1290.00 level reaching 38.2%Fibonacci correction level at $1255.00, while breaching it will open the way for activating the bullish attack to target $1366.00 level initially reaching the resistance at $1400.00.
The expected trading range for today is between $1290.00 and $1342.00
Furthermore, a bearish monthly breakdown (not shown) triggered today as last month’s low of $2.97 was breached. That put natural gas at four-month low and falling. Prior monthly support was seen at the $2.86 low in April, and it looks likely to be challenged if downward pressure remains. That is a five-month low. The trajectory of the current decline also looks like it may be heading to a test of support around the 20-Month MA, now at $2.85. Since the two price levels are so close together, that price zone deserves particular attention, if it is approached.
Symmetry Points to $2.63
In addition, there is an initial target for a falling ABCD pattern (purple) at $2.63. That is where there will be symmetry in price compared to the first leg down (AB). Once that occurs a key potential pivot is identified. Finally, there is a second 78.6% retracement level, a little lower at $2.53. It measures a larger upswing than the prior 78.6% level.
Fast Recovery Could Change Bearish Outlook
An alternative to the above bearish scenario would be a relatively quick recovery of the AVWAP line and a daily close above it. That should then be followed by a recovery of the long-term uptrend line and a close above it, as well as above the prior trend low at $2.97. A bearish closing price today, in the lower third of the day’s range, keeps the sellers in charge and the lower price targets in sight.
For a look at all of today’s economic events, check out our economic calendar.
United States President Donald Trump threatens additional tariffs on India.
The ISM Services PMI is expected to have improved in July to 51.5.
XAU/USD aims to extend its advance, yet lacks enough momentum.
Spot Gold extended its Friday recovery, peaking at $3,385.41 after Wall Street’s opening. The US Dollar (USD) maintained the sour tone triggered by dismal United States (US) employment-related data, which fueled hopes the Federal Reserve (Fed) could trim the benchmark interest rate when it meets in September.
Additionally, US President Donald Trump announced it will “substantially” raise tariffs on India amid the latter buying Russian oil and selling it into the Open Market, according to a post shared in Truth Social. Earlier in the day, Trump claimed the July Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) was rigged, to make “a great Republican Success look less stellar!!!,” once again, subtly threatening to replace Fed Chair Jerome Powell.
Data-wise, the US reported that June Factory Orders shrank by 4.8% slightly better than the 4.9% decline anticipated, although much worse than the May 8.3% advance. Other than that, financial markets seem to have finished digesting the poor employment report, with global stocks turning green.
The focus on Tuesday will be on the US ISM Services Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI). The index is foreseen at 51.5 in July, improving from the 50.8 posted in June.
XAU/USD short-term technical outlook
The daily chart for XAU/USD shows bulls hold the grip, but lack conviction. Gold trades above all its moving averages, with a flat 20 Simple Moving Average (SMA) providing intraday support at around $3,345. The 100 and 200 SMAs, in the meantime, maintain their upward slopes below the shorter one. Technical indicators, however, have lost their bullish strength within neutral levels, barely holding above their midlines.
The XAU/USD pair trades well above all its moving averages in the 4-hour chart, with a bullish 20 SMA advancing below directionless 100 and 200 SMAs. Technical indicators, in the meantime, have lost their upward strength, but hold near overbought readings. The 100 SMA, in the meantime, lies at around $3,348, reinforcing the support area.
Silver kicks off the new week on a softer note amid the emergence of some USD buying.
The technical setup favors bearish traders and backs the case for a further depreciation.
Any attempted recovery beyond the 200-period SMA on the H4 is likely to get sold into.
Silver (XAG/USD) struggles to capitalize on Friday’s modest recovery gains and oscillates in a range at the start of a new week as softer US NFP-inspired US Dollar (USD) selling now seems to have abated. The white metal currently trades around the $37.00 mark and remains within striking distance of a four-week low touched last Thursday.
From a technical perspective, this week’s breakdown below a nearly two-month-old ascending channel support, which coincided with the 200-period Simple Moving Average (SMA) on the 4-hour chart, was seen as a key trigger for the XAG/USD bears. This, along with negative oscillators on daily/4-hour charts, suggests that the path of least resistance for the commodity remains to the downside.
Hence, any subsequent recovery is more likely to confront a stiff barrier near the $37.35 region (200-period SMA on the 4-hour chart). This is followed by the ascending channel support breakpoint, around the $37.60 region, which should act as a pivotal point, which, if cleared, might trigger a short-covering rally and allow the XAG/USD to climb to the $38.00 mark en route to the $38.30-$38.35 region.
On the flip side, the multi-week low, around the $36.20 area, now seems to protect the immediate downside ahead of the $36.00 round figure. Some follow-through selling will reaffirm the negative bias and drag the XAG/USD to the next relevant support near the $35.50 zone. The downward trajectory could extend further towards challenging the $35.00 psychological mark.
XAG/USD 4-hour chart
Silver FAQs
Silver is a precious metal highly traded among investors. It has been historically used as a store of value and a medium of exchange. Although less popular than Gold, traders may turn to Silver to diversify their investment portfolio, for its intrinsic value or as a potential hedge during high-inflation periods. Investors can buy physical Silver, in coins or in bars, or trade it through vehicles such as Exchange Traded Funds, which track its price on international markets.
Silver prices can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can make Silver price escalate due to its safe-haven status, although to a lesser extent than Gold’s. As a yieldless asset, Silver tends to rise with lower interest rates. Its moves also depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAG/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Silver at bay, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to propel prices up. Other factors such as investment demand, mining supply – Silver is much more abundant than Gold – and recycling rates can also affect prices.
Silver is widely used in industry, particularly in sectors such as electronics or solar energy, as it has one of the highest electric conductivity of all metals – more than Copper and Gold. A surge in demand can increase prices, while a decline tends to lower them. Dynamics in the US, Chinese and Indian economies can also contribute to price swings: for the US and particularly China, their big industrial sectors use Silver in various processes; in India, consumers’ demand for the precious metal for jewellery also plays a key role in setting prices.
Silver prices tend to follow Gold’s moves. When Gold prices rise, Silver typically follows suit, as their status as safe-haven assets is similar. The Gold/Silver ratio, which shows the number of ounces of Silver needed to equal the value of one ounce of Gold, may help to determine the relative valuation between both metals. Some investors may consider a high ratio as an indicator that Silver is undervalued, or Gold is overvalued. On the contrary, a low ratio might suggest that Gold is undervalued relative to Silver.
