Gold (XAU/USD) Hits Historic Highs as Tariffs and Central Bank Buying Accelerate

The price of gold (XAU/USD) has stormed to unprecedented levels, with futures trading at $3,809.60 per ounce, up 1.02% intraday, after opening at $3,781.50. That marks a 45% gain since January, making gold the best-performing asset of 2025, ahead of both the Magnificent 7 tech stocks and Bitcoin (BTC-USD). For the first time in modern history, gold has surpassed its 1980 inflation-adjusted peak, a landmark that underscores just how intense the rush for safety has become amid wars, tariffs, and sticky inflation. Over the past year alone, prices have soared 42% from $2,662 per ounce. On a monthly horizon, gold is up nearly 12% since late August, when it traded near $3,379.

Central Banks Redefine Reserve Strategies and Fuel Demand

The primary driver of the rally has been sovereign demand. Central banks now hold more gold than Treasuries for the first time since 1996, and gold has overtaken the euro as the world’s second-most held reserve asset. Purchases have more than doubled compared to the previous decade. Russia, China, and India continue to accumulate as hedges against dollar dominance, but the standout in 2025 is Poland, which has added 67 tonnes this year, nearly doubling its reserves in three years. This leaves Warsaw holding more bullion than the European Central Bank itself. Unlike previous cycles, many emerging markets are buying directly from domestic miners instead of the OTC market, reducing reliance on U.S. dollars. This structural shift shows governments are determined to build resilience after sanctions on Russia’s reserves in 2022 reshaped attitudes toward financial sovereignty.

Tariff Announcements Push Gold Toward $3,820

Geopolitical catalysts amplified gold’s surge this week. President Trump unveiled fresh tariffs ranging from 25% to 100% on pharmaceuticals, heavy trucks, and furniture imports, effective October 1. Branded pharma drugs face the harshest treatment with a full 100% levy unless manufacturing shifts to U.S. plants. Trucks and furniture will be taxed at 25–50%, while reports suggest chipmakers may also face penalties if production remains offshore. These measures rattled equity markets and underscored gold’s safe-haven status, driving prices from Thursday’s $3,736.90 close to Friday’s intraday high of $3,819.60.

Inflation Data Meets Estimates, Fed Cuts Still on the Table

The rally has coincided with the release of the Fed’s preferred inflation gauge, the PCE index, which came in at 2.7% annually and 2.9% core — right on target but the highest in seven months. Monthly gains of 0.3% suggest inflation is not collapsing, but investors still expect rate cuts later this year. The Fed has already priced in at least one more 25 bps reduction, though Danske Bank warned that sticky inflation could pressure policymakers. Yields on the 10-year Treasury sit near 4.18%, while the dollar index is weakening, adding to the bullish environment for gold.

ETF Flows Lag Behind Bitcoin, Signaling More Upside Potential

Despite gold’s record-setting run, ETF flows remain muted compared to crypto. U.S. Bitcoin ETFs account for about 7% of BTC’s total market cap, while gold ETFs represent less than 1% of bullion’s market capitalization. North American gold ETFs just posted their strongest inflows since March 26, but the comparison with crypto suggests room for more institutional adoption. Commodity strategists argue that if ETF allocations to gold rise to even half of Bitcoin’s ratio, another surge beyond $4,000 per ounce becomes plausible.

Technical Analysis: Bulls Eye $3,900 While Support Holds Firm

Technically, December gold futures show strong momentum, with Wyckoff’s Market Rating at 8.5 out of 10. Resistance is set at $3,824.60 and then $3,900, while immediate support lies at $3,749.70 and $3,718.10. A sustained close above $3,800 unlocks the path to retest $3,900, with upside momentum potentially extending to $4,000. On the downside, bears would need to drag futures under $3,650 to regain control, a scenario that currently looks unlikely given both macro support and sovereign demand. Silver (SI=F) is also confirming the metals rally, climbing to $45.35 with a Wyckoff rating of 9.0, and eyeing resistance at $47.50.

Private Investors Join the Cycle Through Retail Channels

Alongside central bank accumulation, private demand is expanding rapidly. Inflows into gold-backed ETFs have accelerated, and retail access points are broadening. Costco (NASDAQ: COST) now sells not just gold bars but also silver and platinum coins, attracting mainstream investors who want convenient exposure. The club retailer’s sales mirror broader sentiment: headlines about record prices are pulling in new buyers, reinforcing the feedback loop that drives gold higher.

Strategic Perspective: Is Gold Still Cheap Against Bitcoin?

Some analysts note that even at $3,800, gold may be undervalued relative to Bitcoin when comparing reserve ratios and ETF penetration. Gold remains under-owned by retail compared to crypto, suggesting that mainstream FOMO has not yet fully arrived. Bank of America’s survey ranks gold the second most crowded trade after the Mag 7, but whether this represents the first inning of institutional participation or the ninth remains contested.

Market Call: Bias Remains Bullish With Caution Near $3,900

With gold futures at $3,809.60 and spot levels near $3,800, the metal has cemented itself as the best-performing major asset of 2025. Central banks are stockpiling, tariffs are escalating, inflation remains elevated, and retail access is broadening. Support zones around $3,750 are holding firm, while technical upside targets point toward $3,900–$4,000. Despite talk of crowded positioning, ETF inflows remain far below crypto’s scale, leaving scope for more buying pressure. Based on the breadth of these catalysts, XAU/USD is a Buy, though traders should expect turbulence around resistance as profit-taking collides with sovereign and institutional demand.

Testing Resistance Near Key Zone

The rally continues to confront resistance between $3,782 and $3,812, where at least five indicators converge. While Friday’s move suggests a continuation of the broader uptrend, momentum is visibly slowing. Price could still extend toward the upper boundary of the zone, but traders are closely watching how gold reacts within this cluster of resistance levels.

Higher Targets if Breakout Sustains

A decisive breakout above $3,812 would open the door to higher projections. The most notable is a 261.8% extension of the large ABCD pattern at $3,896, derived from a harmonic relationship of two rising measured moves. Further up is a confluence zone from $3,982 to $3,998. That would be the next next key target zone, though it remains distant unless bullish momentum strengthens meaningfully.

Signs of Slowing Momentum

Despite price strength, momentum indicators flash caution. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) shows a bearish divergence, with price at new highs but momentum failing to confirm. This divergence, alongside current resistance near the top boundary of a rising trend channel, suggests upside breakouts may struggle to sustain without consolidation.

Short-Term Support Levels

Initial support rests at today’s low of $3,734, followed by the 10-Day moving average at $3,712. More significant is the 20-Day line at $3,650, reinforced by the broader structure of the channel. A drop below these levels would increase the likelihood of a deeper retracement, potentially signaling that gold’s rally has overextended in the short run.

Outlook

For now, the trend remains bullish with buyers holding the upper hand, and the record close this week reflects robust demand. Yet weakening momentum and proximity to key resistance levels warrant caution. Until price either breaks decisively above $3,812 or drops under $3,712, gold’s next directional move remains a contest between sustained buying and the risk of correction.

For a look at all of today’s economic events, check out our economic calendar.

Key Confluence at $3.35

The $3.35 price level carries added weight given that it coincides with the intersection of two significant trendlines — one rising and one falling. Should the market sustain strength through this zone, attention will naturally shift to the next confluence zone, around the 200-Day moving average at $3.49 and the 127.2% Fibonacci projection of the ABCD pattern at $3.51. The alignment of these levels suggests that if buyers can maintain momentum above $3.35, the path toward $3.49–$3.51 will become increasingly viable.

Moving Averages Signal Improving Demand

Another bullish development was the 20-Day moving average crossing above the 50-Day line, strengthening the short-term trend outlook. A daily close above either the rising or falling trendline near $3.35 would further validate this momentum shift, likely followed by additional signs of growing demand. On the downside, a healthy pullback could see price revisit the cluster of moving averages between $2.98 and $3.00, where the 10-Day, 20-Day, and 50-Day averages converge. That zone now represents a significant support area and could offer the foundation for a renewed leg higher once buyers return.

Weekly Chart Turns Bullish

On the weekly timeframe, natural gas is on track to close above last week’s high of $3.17, establishing a bullish outside week reversal. Importantly, this week’s price range also encompasses the ranges of the prior three weeks, emphasizing the strength of the move and signaling a clear shift in momentum. This type of price action often precedes sustained advances, particularly when accompanied by improving moving average alignment and strengthening channel dynamics.

Outlook

Overall, natural gas is showing early signs of turning the corner. A sustained breakout above $3.35 would not only confirm the rising ABCD pattern but also set the stage for a test of the longer-term resistance zone around $3.49–$3.51. Until then, traders will watch for whether the higher swing low established earlier this week holds, as that would further solidify the bullish reversal narrative.

For a look at all of today’s economic events, check out our economic calendar.

3M Company (MMM) declined in recent intraday trading, breaking below a short-term rising trend line. This drop was accompanied by a move under the 50-day SMA, intensifying the negative pressure on the stock. Additional weakness is evident from bearish signals on the RSI, signaling the beginning of a corrective bearish wave in the near term.

Therefore, we expect the stock to extend its decline in upcoming sessions, as long as resistance holds at 159.00, targeting the first support level at 150.40.

Today’s price forecast: Bearish.

• Gold returns to the red below $3,750 early Friday, eyeing US PCE inflation.   
• US Dollar sits at three-week highs as US economic resilience counters Trump’s fresh tariffs.  
• Technically, Gold remains a ‘buy-the-dips’ trade but the upcoming US data holds the key.

Gold is back on its corrective journey below $3,750 in Friday’s Asian trades, after having staged a tepid bounce on Thursday. All eyes now remain on the US core Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index due later in the day for a fresh directional impetus.

Will US PCE inflation revive the Gold record rally?

Reduced bets for aggressive interest rate cuts by the US Federal Reserve (Fed) this year offset renewed jitters fuelled by US President Donald Trump’s latest round of tariffs, helping the US Dollar (USD) holds its recent uptrend at the expense of Gold.

Encouraging US data released on Thursday highlighted the economic resilience, pouring cold water on aggressive Fed easing expectations.

US Gross Domestic Product rose by an upwardly revised rate of 3.8% from April through June, higher than 3.3% initially reported.

Meanwhile, the Labour Department reported 218,000 seasonally adjusted filings for the week ending September 20, down 14,000 from the prior week’s upwardly revised figure and below the consensus estimate of 235,000.

Additionally, Durable Goods Orders rebounded firmly by 2.9% in August versus the previously revised -2.7% and -0.5% expected.

Trump on Thursday announced tariffs of up to 100% on imports of branded and patented pharmaceutical drugs, starting October 1. Trump also slapped 50% tariffs on imports of kitchen cabinets and bathroom vanities, 30% on upholstered furniture, and 25% on heavy trucks.

Markets weigh the latest Trump’s tariffs, while gearing up for the critical US PCE inflation data due later this Friday. The data will confirm whether the Fed will remain on track for two rate cuts this year.

The Fed’s preferred inflation measure, the core PCE Price Index, is expected to rise by 2.9% in August, at the same pace seen in July. The headline annual PCE inflation is set to tick higher to 2.7% in the same period, against July’s 2.6%.

An upside surprise to the core PCE print could bolster the USD rally and weigh further on the non-interest-bearing Gold price. A sudden increase in price pressure could further temper expectations of more Fed cuts.

On the other hand, a softer-than-expected US core PCE reading would be welcomed by the Fed

In the lead-up to the US PCE showdown, the FXStreet Fed Sentiment Index extends its foothold in the hawkish zone, trading near 114 as of writing, up from around 105 levels seen a day ago.

Gold price technical analysis: Daily chart

Technically, the bearish pressures seem to have eased a bit as the 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) moves out of the extreme overbought region.

The leading indicator currently trades at 71.50, down from 78 levels seen at the start of the week.

If the pullback regains momentum, the initial support is seen at the $3,700 threshold, below which Monday’s low of $3,684 will offer some comfort.

Further down, the $3,650 psychological barrier could come to the rescue of buyers.

On the other hand, buyers need acceptance above the $3,750 psychological level to revive the record rally.

The next topside hurdle is located at the lifetime high of $3,791, followed by the $3,800 barrier.

A sustained and decisive break above the latter could fuel a fresh advance toward the $3,850 psychological level.

The EURJPY pair failed to resume the bullish attack, due to its stability below %1.809 Fibonacci extension level, forming an extra barrier at 175.20, providing sideways trading since yesterday by its stability near 174.85.

Reminding you that the bullish scenario will remain valid, due to the stability within the bullish channel’s levels besides the continuation of forming an initial support at 173.40 level, which makes us wait for breaching the current barrier to ease the mission of recording extra gains that might begin at 176.00 and 176.95.

The expected trading range for today is between 174.20 and 175.20

Trend forecast: Sideways until achieving the breach

The (silver) price declined in its last intraday trading, after reaching $44.80 resistance, which represents our expected target in our last forecast, due to the stability of this resistance the price declined to gather the gains of its previous rises, to attempt to gain bullish momentum that might help to breach it and resuming the rise, amid the continuation of the positive pressure that comes from its trading above EMA50, and under the dominance of the main bullish trend on the short-term basis and its trading alongside trendline, besides the emergence of the positive signals on the relative strength indicators, despite reaching overbought levels.

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The (ETHUSD) price rose in its last intraday trading, after breaking the critical support at $4,100, amid the dominance of the main bearish trend on the short-term basis and its trading alongside minor trendline, indicating the big volume of the negative momentum, with the continuation of the negative pressure that comes from its trading below EMA50, attempting to recover its previous losses, and attempting to offload some of its clear oversold conditions on the relative strength indicators, especially with the emergence of the positive signals.

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• Silver price faces some selling pressure around $44.80 in Friday’s Asian session.
• A firmer US Dollar undermines the USD-denominated commodity price. 
• Rising geopolitical risks might cap the downside for the Silver price. 

Silver price (XAG/USD) attracts some sellers to near $44.80 after reaching its highest in over 14 years during the Asian trading hours on Friday. Traders await the release of the US August Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index data later on Friday for fresh impetus. 

The precious metal has gained momentum in the previous sessions as markets expected at least two rate cuts from the Federal Reserve (Fed) in the remaining two Fed meetings this year. Lower interest rates could reduce the opportunity cost of holding Silver, supporting the non-yielding precious metal. 

Nonetheless, the cautious tone from Fed officials lifts the US Dollar (USD) and weighs on the USD-denominated commodity price. Fed Chair Jerome Powell said on Tuesday that the policymakers continue to deal with the double whammy of potentially higher inflation and a slowing labor market. Powell added that the interest rates are in a good place to deal with either threat, suggesting he sees no urgency to lower rates aggressively.  

Meanwhile, Fed Governor Stephen Miran preferred a more aggressive 0.50% cut, arguing that with temporary tariff effects aside, inflation was closer to the 2% target. Traders slightly pared back bets for a Fed rate cut by year-end to about 33%, according to LSEG data.  

Ongoing geopolitical tensions in Europe and the Middle East might boost the safe-haven flows, helping limit Silver’s losses in the near term. On Thursday, Ukraine’s President Zelensky warned that Russian President Vladimir Putin “will keep driving the war forward wider and deeper” if he is not stopped. Russian aerial attacks have become larger and more frequent since Moscow scaled up its drone production at the start of the year.  But while most of these assaults used to come at night, there have been more daytime threats in recent weeks.

• Gold Price drifts higher to around $3,750 in Friday’s early Asian session.
• Traders continue to assess mixed signals from Fed officials. 
• The US PCE inflation data for August will be in the spotlight later on Friday. 

Gold Price (XAU/USD) edges higher to near $3,750 during the early Asian session on Friday. The precious metal gains ground amid expectations of further US rate cuts from the Federal Reserve (Fed) this year and rising geopolitical risks. The release of the US Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index data for August will take center stage later on Friday. 

The US central bank decided to cut its benchmark interest rate by 25 basis points (bps) at its September meeting, bringing the Federal Funds Rate to a target range of 4.00% to 4.25%. Traders are expecting at least two rate reductions in this year’s remaining two Fed meetings. Lower interest rates could reduce the opportunity cost of holding Gold, supporting the non-yielding precious metal. 

However, comments from Fed policymakers, including Chair Jerome Powell, indicated a lot will depend on upcoming economic data. Meanwhile, Fed Governor Stephen Miran preferred a more aggressive 0.50% cut, arguing that with temporary tariff effects aside, inflation was closer to the 2% target. The cautious tone of Fed officials might cap the upside for the yellow metal in the near term. 

Traders will closely watch the US PCE inflation data later on Friday for fresh impetus. The Fed’s preferred measure of underlying inflation likely grew at a slower pace last month. “Softer inflation could strengthen the case for Fed rate cuts, supporting bullion, with markets pricing two cuts this year,” Kaynat Chainwala, analyst at Kotak Securities Ltd., said in a Thursday note.