Long-term Bullish Reversal

Today’s high was very close to completing a 38.2% Fibonacci retracement of an interim downswing, at 3.85. That price level is joined by 3.87, which is the 127.2% extended target for a rising ABCD pattern (orange). Together, they create a potential resistance zone from 3.85 to 3.87. The 38.3% long-term Fibonacci target was established following the February 2024 bottom.

Nonetheless, the breakout above the 3.64 swing high produces a bullish trend reversal signal on the larger time frame. The larger price patterns have greater potential significance. Therefore, the possibility of a more aggressive rally in natural gas increases following a daily close above 3.64. Since it is Friday, this would also produce confirmation on the weekly time frame.

Higher Targets Move into View

What looks interesting is that there is only an interim target identified if the 3.87 price level is exceeded. A smaller rising ABCD pattern (purple) shows a 161.8% Fibonacci extended target for the CD leg of the pattern at 4.06. From there the next potential upside target looks to be up at 4.33. Another smaller rising ABCD pattern (red) targets 4.33, its initial 100% target. Nonetheless, in the shorter term a pullback is always a possibility.

Watch Monthly Chart Closing

In addition to today’s long-term bullish trend reversal signal, natural gas has a chance of confirming the bullish trend reversal signal on a monthly chart by ending the year above 3.64. That would confirm the bullish reversal on the monthly time frame. An initial long-term target is up at the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level measuring the full downtrend that began from the 2022 high.

For a look at all of today’s economic events, check out our economic calendar.

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Coffee price world unpredictable increase and decrease

Robusta coffee prices on the London floor updated at 15:30 p.m. December 19, 2024 decreased sharply for the second consecutive session from 2-18 USD/ton, fluctuating between 65 – 5005 USD/ton. Specifically, the monthly delivery term January 2025 is 5151 USD/ton (down 5151 USD/ton); the monthly delivery term March 2025 is 65 USD/ton (down 5139 USD/ton); the monthly delivery term May 2025 is 29 USD/ton (down 5085 USD/ton) and the monthly delivery term July 2025 is 18 USD/ton (down 5005 USD/ton).

In contrast to Robusta coffee prices, Arabica coffee prices on the New York floor increased sharply after yesterday’s price drop, increasing from 3.30 – 7.70 cents/lb, fluctuating from 311.40 – 332.65 cents/lb. Specifically, the monthly delivery term March 2025 is 332.65 cents/lb (up 7.70 cents/lb); the monthly delivery term May 2025 is 327.40 cents/lb (up 5.50 cents/lb); the monthly delivery term July 2025 is 320.70 cents/lb (up 3.75 cents/lb) and the monthly delivery term September 2025 is 311.40 cents/lb (up 3.30 cents/lb).

Similarly, at the end of the trading session, the price of Brazilian Arabica coffee, updated in the afternoon of December 19, 2024, also had a strong increase of 0.30 – 10.45 USD/ton compared to yesterday, fluctuating from 399.85 – 407.35 USD/ton. Specifically, the monthly delivery term December 2024 is 407.35 USD/ton (up 10.45 USD/ton); the monthly delivery term March 2025 is 419.50 USD/ton (up 0.30 USD/ton); the monthly delivery term May 2025 is 408.85 USD/ton (up 7.30 USD/ton) and the monthly delivery term July 2025 is 399.85 USD/ton (up 4.95 USD/ton).

Domestic coffee prices have decreased slightly.

Under the pressure of a sharp drop in the world price of Robusta coffee, domestic coffee prices could not maintain stability and fell for the second consecutive session, but the price decrease was not significant. According to information from Giacaphe.com, updated coffee prices at 2:15 p.m. today, December 19, 2024, the average domestic coffee price was at 30 VND/kg, down -123.200 VND/kg compared to yesterday.

People in Gia Lai province check the quality of green coffee beans before selling. Photo: Hien Mai

Coffee prices in key regions of the Central Highlands (Dak Lak, Lam Dong, Gia Lai, Dak Nong) were recorded to have the same price decrease of -200 VND/kg. Specifically, the price of coffee in Dak Lak is 123.800 VND/kg; the price of coffee in Lam Dong is 122.500 VND/kg; the price of coffee in Gia Lai is 123.600 VND/kg and the price of coffee in Dak Nong is 124.000 VND/kg.

The domestic coffee prices that Giacaphe.com lists every day are calculated based on the prices of two world coffee exchanges combined with continuous surveys from businesses and purchasing agents in key coffee growing areas across the country.

Y5Cafe always tries to stay as close as possible to each region, however there will be days when the listed price does not completely match the local coffee purchase price, but Y5Cafe believes that the listed information is a valuable reference source for you.

Receive determined Coffee price tomorrow 20/ 12 / 2024

Experts believe that domestic coffee prices in the coming time will be affected by the world market. At the end of the year, financial speculators are gradually withdrawing money from the market, causing prices on the floor to adjust.

According to analysis, there are not many physical transactions. The nature of the fluctuations on the coffee futures exchanges (New York and London) in recent times may be due to financial speculators taking short-term profits.

Accordingly, the recent high price of coffee is not due to a shortage of supply. The reason may be that they are pushing the price up and now is the time to take profits.

Accompanied by the current harvest period, therefore, the adjustment pressure on domestic coffee prices increases as supply is replenished. When coffee prices in the market adjust, accompanied by pressure from increased supply during the harvest period, domestic coffee prices will also decrease.

Based on the downward trend of coffee prices on both international exchanges and domestic markets, it is forecasted that coffee prices on December 20, 2024 may continue the downward trend or remain stable at the current level.

• Silves price trades in a limited range, with investors focusing on the US PCE inflation data for November.
• The Fed signaled fewer interest rate cuts for the next year in its policy meeting on Wednesday.
• The US Dollar and bond yields have rallied on Fed’s hawkish guidance.

Silver price (XAG/USD) trades in a tight range around $29.00 in Friday’s European trading session. The white metal consolidates as investors await the United States (US) core Personal Consumption Expenditure Price Index (PCE) data for November, which will be published at 13:30 GMT.

Economists expect the US annual core PCE inflation data to have accelerated to 2.9% from 2.8% in October. On month, the underlying inflation data is estimated to have grown steadily by 0.2%. Signs of mild slowdown in price pressures are unlikely to impact market expectations that the Federal Reserve (Fed) will pause the policy-easing spell in the policy meeting in January 2025. However, a sharp deceleration could weigh on them. On the contrary, a mild or sharp acceleration in price pressures would strengthen them.

In the policy meeting on Wednesday, the Fed reduced its key borrowing rates by 25 basis points (bps) to 4.25%-4.50% but signaled fewer interest rate cuts for 2025. The Fed dot plot showed that officials collectively see Federal Fund rates heading to 3.9% by 2025 against 3.4% projected in September.

Ahead of the US PCE inflation data, the US Dollar Index (DXY), which tracks the Greenback’s value against six major currencies, edges lower after posting a fresh two-year high at 108.50. 10-year US Treasury yields tick lower to 4.56% from a fresh six-month high of 4.60%. Higher yields on interest-bearing assets increase the opportunity cost of holding an investment in non-yielding assets, such as Silver.

Silver technical analysis

Silver price slides below the 200-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA), which trades around $29.35. The white metal weakens after a breakdown of the upward-sloping trendline around $30.20, which is plotted from the February 29 low of $22.30.

The 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) drops inside the bearish range of 20.00-40.00 range, guiding a downside momentum ahead.

Looking down, the September low of $27.75 would as key support for the Silver price. On the upside, the 50-day EMA around $30.90 would be the barrier.

Silver daily chart

• Silver hovers near a three-month low at $28.74, which was recorded in the previous session.
• A non-yielding Silver struggles as central banks emphasize the need for caution regarding additional rate cuts.
• The demand concerns for Silver metal increase due to potential tariffs from the upcoming Trump administration.

Silver price (XAG/USD) continues its losing streak that began on December 12, trading around $28.90 per troy ounce during the Asian session on Friday. The price of the grey metal reached a fresh three-month low at $28.74 in the previous session.

The non-yielding assets like Silver receive downward pressure as central banks emphasize the need for caution regarding additional rate cuts. Fed Chair Jerome Powell emphasized the need for caution regarding additional rate cuts, noting that inflation is likely to remain persistently above the central bank’s 2% target.

Moreover, the Bank of Japan (BoJ) maintained its ultra-low interest rates on Thursday as President-elect Donald Trump’s tariff threats loomed over Japan’s export-driven economy. Meanwhile, the Bank of England (BoE) kept interest rates unchanged, with policymakers divided on the appropriate response to the country’s slowing economic growth. On Friday, the People’s Bank of China (PBoC) decided to keep its Loan Prime Rates (LPRs) unchanged.

Concerns about potential tariffs from the upcoming Trump administration have heightened worries about weak demand for Silver as an industrial input, causing the metal to underperform in the fourth quarter. Additionally, Silver prices face challenges due to the constrained industrial outlook, driven by overcapacity in China’s solar panel industry, which has led photovoltaic companies to join a government self-discipline program to regulate supply.

• Silver price finds an interim cushion near $29.25 but its outlook remains vulnerable.

• Higher bond yields due to the Fed’s hawkish guidance have weighed on the Silver price.

• The Fed sees only two interest rate cuts in 2025.

Silver price (XAG/USD) finds temporary support near $29.25 on Thursday after plunging almost 4% on Wednesday. The outlook of the white metal remains bearish as the Federal Reserve (Fed) has signaled fewer interest rate cuts for 2025 after cutting them by 25-basis points (bps) to 4.25%-4.50%.

The Fed’s hawkish remarks for the next year have resulted in a rally in the US Dollar (USD) and Treasury yields. The US Dollar Index (DXY), which tracks the greenback’s value against six major currencies, dropped to near 107.90 in Thursday’s European session after refreshing a two-year high of around 108.30.

10-year US Treasury yields advance above 4.50%. Higher yields on interest-bearing assets increase the opportunity cost of holding an investment in non-yielding assets, such as Silver.

The Fed’s dot plot showed that policymakers see the Federal Funds rate heading to 3.9% by 2025, suggesting two interest rate cuts next year. In the September meeting, officials had forecasted four interest rate cuts collectively.

The Fed guided a slower policy-easing cycle as the United States (US) inflationary pressures appear to have stalled in the past few months. Meanwhile, Fed Chair Jerome Powell acknowledged that strong growth in the second half of the year is a major reason to move cautiously on interest rates.

Silver technical analysis

Silver price slides to near the 200-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA), which trades around $29.40. The white metal weakened after breaking below the November low of $29.65. The asset has also tested the upward-sloping trendline around $29.50, which is plotted from the February 29 low of $22.30

The 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) dropped inside the bearish 20.00-40.00 range, indicating a downward trend ahead.

Looking down, the September low of $27.75 would as key support for the Silver price. On the upside, the 50-day EMA around $31.00 would be the barrier.

Stuck With Range From 69.42 to 71.41

Two key near-term price levels to watch include potential support around the 20-Day MA, now at 69.42, and resistance at last week’s high of 71.41. Although a decline below the 20-Day line is a sign of weakness, the top trendline is also nearby and can be watched in conjunction with the moving average line as a potential support area. In this case, both moving averages are being used as a guide, but they are within a consolidation pattern, so their current significance is not the same as if crude oil was in a trending environment.

Breakout Above 71.41 Leads to 73.27

If the 71.41 high is exceeded, the November 22 swing high becomes the next target, and it will likely be reclaimed. A breakout above 71.41 would confirm strength and should increase the chance that the price of crude can keep rising. Also, on the larger time frame weekly chart (not shown), the 20-Week MA at 71.35 matches the November high pivot giving it a greater significance if a breakout occurs.

If the 71.41 high is exceeded, then the 50% retracement area at 72.97 would be the next upside target. It matches with the November swing high at 73.27. Further up is the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement at 74.42, followed by the bottom and top boundary lines of a large symmetrical triangle pattern. Around the same price zone is the 78.6% retracement level at 76.47.

Lower Volatility, Leads to Higher Volatility

Since crude has been consolidating recently into a tight trading range, there is the potential for a spike in volatility once the range has been cleared. A somewhat downward bias remains given the series of lower swing highs and the breakdown from a large symmetrical triangle pattern at the beginning of September. The impact of the pattern and breakdown is still being felt given that recent consolidation has occurred below the triangle.

For a look at all of today’s economic events, check out our economic calendar.

First Pullback Following Breakout is Complete

The first pullback following the breakout of a large symmetrical triangle pattern completed at the December 4 swing low of 2.98. That was around the triangle breakout area of 3.02 and it sets the stage for a bullish continuation as prior resistance was tested as support. Today’s breakout occurred two days following a reversal day established on Tuesday, which also generated a higher swing low.

Support at Today’s Low of 3.39

Near-term support is at today’s low of 3.39. A decline below that price could lead to another retest of support around the 20-Day MA, currently at 3.27. As noted previously, the 20-Day line was successfully tested as support on several days recently. Support was indicated by the daily closes above the line, even though earlier the price of natural gas had traded below the 20-Day line. Of course, a key support area is the interim swing low from Tuesday at 3.09 because it generated a higher swing low and holds the second point of a rising trendline.

First 3.64, then 385

A daily close above 3.56 will confirm today’s breakout. There could be a clear pickup in momentum that takes natural gas straight to test resistance around the top of the triangle pattern at 3.64. But given strength indicated following the symmetrical triangle breakout, that price level is expected to be exceeded. Notice that following the November 20 breakout, natural gas quickly took out prior swing highs at 3.16 and 3.09.

That was a sign of strength that should return once the 3.56 high is exceeded. Initial higher targets would then be anchored around a 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level at 3.85. Higher up is an extended target from a rising ABCD pattern (purple) at 4.06, followed by an initial target from a smaller ascending ABCD pattern (red) at 4.33.

For a look at all of today’s economic events, check out our economic calendar.

U.S. natural gas is catching a bid today with two drivers, Art Hogan, Chief Market Strategist at B. Riley Wealth, told Rigzone in an exclusive interview on Thursday.

“On the fundamental side, we have seen forecasts that indicated the potential for cooler air creeping into the Lower 48 to start the new year,” he said.

“On the technical side, we saw a higher low this week, at $3.20 per million British thermal units (MMBtu), than last week, at $3.10 MMBtu, and as such traders are looking for a potential breakout above $3.50 MMBtu,” he added.

“More seasonally appropriate weather, combined with price momentum, seem to be the drivers of price this week,” he continued.

In a separate exclusive interview today, David Seduski, the head of North American gas at Energy Aspects, said “the rally in Henry Hub recently stems from expectations for a colder weather pattern in the U.S. in January”.

“The Christmas to New Year’s week looks like it will be very mild, but there are initial indications that an Alaska Ridge system is forming that typically corresponds with cold temperatures in the United States,” Seduski told Rigzone.

“Essentially, a high-pressure system forms over Alaska and that pushes cold air that typically would move from the arctic into Alaska and funnels it to the United States,” he added.

“If that system fully forms there is certainly a case for higher prices, but the temperatures wouldn’t happen until mid-January probably,” he continued.

“We’ve seen the prompt contract move up all week, but the rest of the curve has seen muted support given weather beyond even early January is very prone to forecast revisions,” Seduski went on to state.

The Energy Aspects representative also told Rigzone that there’s probably some short covering helping boost the rally.

“There’s still a lot of short positions in the market, and as the market moves higher we may be seeing some scrambling to cover in case the January weather pattern does develop and trend colder,” he said.

In another exclusive interview on Thursday, Phil Flynn, a senior market analyst at the PRICE Futures Group, told Rigzone that natural gas is rising “as the U.S. barrels in for the coldest blast of the season”.

“A cold start to winter is increasing the odds that we may see the coldest winter in years,” Flynn said.

“January forecasts are going to be the key … If they trend colder then natural gas will trend higher,” he added.

The U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) raised its Henry Hub natural gas spot price forecast for this year and next year in its latest short term energy outlook (STEO), which was released recently.

According to its December STEO, the EIA sees the Henry Hub spot price averaging $2.19 per million British thermal units (MMBtu) in 2024 and $2.95 per MMBtu in 2025. The EIA’s previous STEO, which was released in November, projected that the Henry Hub spot price would average $2.17 per MMBtu in 2024 and $2.90 per MMBtu in 2025.

To contact the author, email andreas.exarheas@rigzone.com

XAU/USD Current price: $2,590.05

• The Bank of Japan and the Bank of England kept rates on hold in their December meetings.
• The United States upwardly revised Q3 Gross Domestic Product figures.
• XAU/USD resumed its slide and aims for lower lows below $2,580.   

Spot Gold came under selling pressure early in the American session after peaking at $2,626.31 during European trading hours. The US Dollar (USD) shed some ground throughout the first half of the day after reaching extreme overbought conditions in the Federal Reserve’s (Fed) aftermath. The United States (US) central bank delivered a hawkish cut, trimming the benchmark interest rate by 25 basis points (bps), while scaling back policymakers’ perspective on potential cuts in the upcoming years.

Global stock markets felt the heat, as most Asian and European indexes settled in the red on Thursday, following Wall Street’s slump post-Fed. US indexes kick-started the new day, trimming part of their Wednesday’s losses, but remain under strong selling pressure, helping the USD resume its advance.

Also backing the Greenback, US data was upbeat. The country published the final estimate of the Q3 Gross Domestic Product (GDP), which showed that annualized growth was higher than previously estimated, confirmed at 3.1% vs. the previous 2.8%.  Initial Jobless Claims for the week ended December 13 declined to 220K from 242K in the previous week, also beating the expected 230K.

Also worth noting is that the Bank of Japan (BoJ) and the Bank of England (BoE) announced their decisions on monetary policy. The BoJ kept the short-term rate target unchanged in the range of 0.15%-0.25%, and give no clues on what’s next for monetary policy. The Bank of England also kept the benchmark interest rate on hold at 4.75%, albeit MPC members delivered a dovish message, reiterating a gradual approach to rate cuts coming up next.

XAU/USD short-term technical outlook

From a technical point of view, the XAU/USD is at risk of falling below its recent multi-week low at $2,582.93. The daily chart shows the pair trimmed almost all its intraday gains. Gold is currently below its 20 and 100 Simple Moving Averages (SMAs), below the longer one for the first time since October 2023. The 200 SMA, in the meantime, maintains its bullish slope around the $2,470 level. Finally, technical indicators offer neutral-to-bearish slopes well into negative territory, far from suggesting the pair may recover again.

In the near term, and according to the 4-hour chart, XAU/USD seems to have completed its corrective advance and is ready to reach fresh lows. The bright metal is developing below all its moving averages, with the 20 Simple Moving Average heading firmly south below the longer ones, reflecting sellers’ strength. Technical indicators, in the meantime, have retreated from their intraday peaks, anyway, set below their midlines.

 Support levels: 2,582.90 2,568.80 2,554.10

Resistance levels: 2,603.20 2,617.55 2,632.00