The GBPJPY pair ended the last bullish rally by recording 212.15 level, to bounce directly to settle near 211.30, which formed strong obstacle against the bullish attempts.

Note that the stability within the main bullish levels and forming extra support at 211.30 level, which makes us wait for gathering bullish momentum to reinforce the chances of recording the target at 212.55 and surpassing it might extend trading towards 213.75, while reaching below 211.30 and providing negative close will confirm delaying the bullish attack, to begin forming temporary corrective wave, to target 210.65 and 209.90 level.

The expected trading range for today is between 211.00 and 212.50

Trend forecast: Bullish

February WTI crude oil (CLG26) today is closed down -0.81 (-1.42%), and February RBOB gasoline (RBG26) is down -0.007 (-0.04%).

Crude oil and gasoline prices are under pressure today, with crude falling to a 2-week low. Crude prices tumbled today after the US lifted sanctions on Venezuelan crude exports and President Trump said Venezuela’s interim authorities agreed to give up as many as 50 million bbl of “high-quality sanctioned oil” to the US.

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Crude prices recovered from their worst level after weekly EIA crude inventories fell more than expected. Also, heightened geopolitical tensions are supportive for crude after the US seized a Russian-flagged oil tanker for sanction violations. In addition, today’s rally in the S&P 500 to a new record high shows confidence in the economic outlook that is supportive of energy demand,

Concerns about energy demand are negative for crude prices after Saudi Arabia on Monday cut the price of its Arab Light crude for February delivery to customers for a third month.

Morgan Stanley predicted that a global oil market surplus is likely to expand further and peak mid-year, pressuring prices, as it cut its crude price forecast for Q1 to $57.50/bbl from a prior forecast of $60/bbl, and cut its Q2 crude price forecast to $55/bbl from $60/bbl.

Vortexa reported Monday that crude oil stored on tankers that have been stationary for at least 7 days fell -3.4% w/w to 119.35 million bbl in the week ended January 2.

Strength in Chinese crude demand is supportive for prices. According to Kpler data, China’s crude imports in December are set to increase by 10% m/m to a record 12.2 million bpd as it rebuilds its crude inventories.

Crude garnered support after OPEC+ on Sunday said it would stick to its plan to pause production increases in Q1 of 2026. OPEC+ at its November 2025 meeting announced that members would raise production by +137,000 bpd in December, but will then pause the production hikes in Q1-2026 due to the emerging global oil surplus. The IEA in mid-October forecasted a record global oil surplus of 4.0 million bpd for 2026. OPEC+ is trying to restore all of the 2.2 million bpd production cut it made in early 2024, but still has another 1.2 million bpd of production left to restore. OPEC’s November crude production fell by -10,000 bpd to 29.09 million bpd.

Ukrainian drone and missile attacks have targeted at least 28 Russian refineries over the past four months, limiting Russia’s crude oil export capabilities and reducing global oil supplies. Also, since the end of November, Ukraine has ramped up attacks on Russian tankers, with at least six tankers attacked by drones and missiles in the Baltic Sea. In addition, new US and EU sanctions on Russian oil companies, infrastructure, and tankers have curbed Russian oil exports.

Last month, the IEA projected that the world crude surplus will widen to a record 3.815 million bpd in 2026 from a 4-year high of over 2.0 million bpd in 2025.

Last month, OPEC revised its Q3 global oil market estimates from a deficit to a surplus, as US production exceeded expectations and OPEC also ramped up crude output. OPEC said it now sees a 500,000 bpd surplus in global oil markets in Q3, versus the previous month’s estimate for a -400,000 bpd deficit. Also, the EIA raised its 2025 US crude production estimate to 13.59 million bpd from 13.53 million bpd last month.

Today’s weekly EIA inventory report was mixed for crude and products. On the negative side, EIA gasoline supplies rose +7.7 million bbl to a 10-month high, a larger build than expectations of +2.0 million bbl as US gasoline demand tumbled to a 1-year low of 8.17 million bpd. Also, EIA distillate stockpiles rose 5.59 million bbl to a 1-year high, a larger build than expectations of +1.1 million bbl. In addition, crude supplies at Cushing, the delivery point of WTI futures, rose by +728,000 bbl. On the positive side, EIA crude inventories fell by -3.83 million bbl, a larger draw than expectations of -1.0 million bbl.

Today’s EIA report showed that (1) US crude oil inventories as of January 2 were -4.1% below the seasonal 5-year average, (2) gasoline inventories were +1.6% above the seasonal 5-year average, and (3) distillate inventories were -3.1% below the 5-year seasonal average. US crude oil production in the week ending January 2 was down -0.1% w/w to 13.811 million bpd, just below the record high of 13.862 million bpd from the week of November 7.

Baker Hughes reported last Tuesday that the number of active US oil rigs in the week ended January 2 rose by +3 rigs to 412 rigs, recovering from the 4.25-year low of 406 rigs posted in the week ended December 19. Over the past 2.5 years, the number of US oil rigs has fallen sharply from the 5.5-year high of 627 rigs reported in December 2022.

On the date of publication, Rich Asplund did not have (either directly or indirectly) positions in any of the securities mentioned in this article. All information and data in this article is solely for informational purposes.For more information please view the Barchart Disclosure Policy here.

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The AUDCAD succeeded in confirming the bullish scenario by surpassing the barrier at 0.9255, recording clear gains by its rally towards 0.9345, besides providing bullish momentum by the main indicators will increase the efficiency of the bullish scenario, to expect recording extra gains by its rally towards 0.9400, to achieve 100.0%Fibonacci extension level.

The risk of changing the trend and begin the negative track, if the price declined sharply to settle below the main support at 0.9130.

The expected trading range for today is between 0.9260 and 0.9400

Trend forecast: Bullish

Accounting and consulting giant Deloitte has not changed its latest crude oil price forecasts for 2026 and beyond in response to the U.S. raid on Venezuela that led the capture of Nicolás Maduro.

The situation roiled shares of oil producing companies on Monday, as investors weighed the potential impact of the country’s heavy oil industry ramping up exports under American control. Industry analysts are now downplaying the potential impact on global prices.

The February 2026 contract for U.S. benchmark West Texas Intermediate (WTI) (CL=F) crude closed about 1.74 per cent higher on Monday. Prices rose in early trading on Tuesday, before dipping into negative territory below US$58 per barrel.

In a new report, Deloitte calls for WTI to stay range-bound in 2026, averaging US$58 a barrel, before rising to US$61.20 in 2027, and US$67.65 in 2028. The estimate for 2026 is about 20 per cent lower than it was at this time last year, and about 12 per cent below the commodity’s 2025 average.

Deloitte also left its forecast for Western Canadian Select (WCS) unchanged on Tuesday as a result of the situation in Venezuela. WCS is Canada’s main heavy oil benchmark.

On Tuesday, Prime Minister Mark Carney said he continues to “see the competitiveness of Canadian oil,” while welcoming the prospect of greater economic prosperity in Venezuela.

Monday saw shares of major Canadian oil producers slide as investors weighed the prospect of Venezuelan oil competing with Canadian exports to satisfy U.S. demand. Canadian Natural Resources (CNQ.TO)(CNQ) saw its stock close over six per cent lower in Toronto. The iShares S&P/TSX Capped Energy Index ETF (XEG.TO), a basket of big Canadian oil stocks, sank 3.4 per cent. It was a different story for U.S. oil majors. Shares of ExxonMobil (XOM), Chevron (CVX), and ConocoPhillips (COP) ended the day higher.

Canadian oil stocks flipped between gains and losses in mid-day trading on Tuesday.

Like many industry experts, Deloitte partner Andrew Botterill says it will take many years and a lot of money to materially revive Venezuela’s battered oil industry.

“Canadian [crude] volumes have had the benefit of not really having to compete with much of the Venezuelan volumes for the last five or so years,” he told Yahoo Finance Canada on Monday.

“That competition may be back, but that’s something that we have to worry about in five to 10 years from now,” Botterill said.

“From a fundamentals supply and demand [perspective], not a lot changed this weekend. What we did recognize is out on the horizon, there could be a reshaping of what mid-term and long-term supply and demand might be.”

Oil market researcher Rory Johnston says China, not the United States, would likely absorb any short-term increases in Venezuelan oil exports.

“In the medium term, Venezuelan crude will reach the nearby U.S. Gulf Coast only once U.S. sanctions are repealed, or additional waivers are issued. This would put modest price pressure on other heavy sour grades, like Western Canadian Select and Mexican Maya,” Johnston wrote in his Commodity Context newsletter on Monday evening.

“In the long term, Venezuela can obviously produce more oil — easily two to 2.5 [thousand barrels per day] over the next 5+ years — but it will take monumental investment from U.S. companies that have already been burned in this exact market.”

Bart Melek, TD Securities head of commodity strategy, says U.S. intervention in Venezuela does not materially change his near-term outlook for oil.

“We expect a limited impact from Venezuela’s most acute geopolitical crisis since 1902-1903, but reiterate the potential for geopolitics to structurally alter global energy market dynamics in 2026,” Melek wrote in a research report.

Deloitte says the current oversupply in global oil markets is “the largest seen since the pandemic disruption.” However, unlike the COVID-19 scenario, Botterill says the glut today is driven by rising supply, not shrinking demand.

“What we do see is a lot of non-OPEC countries growing [production], and that has really changed the supply and demand balance that we saw for the kind of three years before that,” he added.

“What we’re probably going to see from Canadian producers is we’re going to see them being cautious in their budgets, and I think they are going to be careful in their investments, recognizing that we may have some downside price risk out there.”

Jeff Lagerquist is a senior reporter at Yahoo Finance Canada. Follow him on X @jefflagerquist.

Range Resistance May Slow Advance Toward Highs

Together, the above indications point to a likely continuation of the bull trend as gold heads towards the record high of $4,550. However, despite the clear signs of strengthening, gold remains within a trading range established by a wide range bearish red candle from December 29 that formed following the high. It represents a range of potential selling pressure, which could impact momentum in the current advance and lead to further corrective behavior for the precious metal. This is not a prediction but rather a pattern to be aware off that could hobble the attempt at new highs.

20-Day and Channel Support Reinforce Bull Trend

Regardless, dynamic support for the bull trend was confirmed on Monday with a bounce off support near the 20-day average, which is bullish behavior at a key trend indicator. In addition, the recent pullback following a new record high was minor with support confirmed at the top trendline of a rising trend channel. It shows bullish momentum improving with as the overall rate of ascent increases. The fact that the 20-day line and top channel line – both long-term levels – also marked the same area of support near the pullback low of $4,274, is bullish behavior.

Confluence Zones Define Next Upside Targets

The first new high target zone is identified by the confluence of several indicator. An initial price range goes from around $4,664 to $4,713. Also, a little higher is a level at $4,766. Other than $4,687, which is the 161.8% extension of the recent bearish correction, the price levels are derived from long-term measurements. If the top level is eventually exceeded, gold looks like it will head to $4,942, which is the 450% extension of the 2011 bearish correction.

For a look at all of today’s economic events, check out our economic calendar.

The GBPJPY pair ended the last bullish rally by recording 212.15 level, to bounce directly to settle near 211.30, which formed strong obstacle against the bullish attempts.

Note that the stability within the main bullish levels and forming extra support at 211.30 level, which makes us wait for gathering bullish momentum to reinforce the chances of recording the target at 212.55 and surpassing it might extend trading towards 213.75, while reaching below 211.30 and providing negative close will confirm delaying the bullish attack, to begin forming temporary corrective wave, to target 210.65 and 209.90 level.

The expected trading range for today is between 211.00 and 212.50

Trend forecast: Bullish

Platinum price ended the last bullish rally by facing the historical high near$2467.70, forming strong resistance to begin forming bearish corrective waves by its stability near $2340.00.

Despite the attempts of the main indicators to provide positive momentum, the continued fluctuation below the current top supports the chances of renewing the corrective attempts, which might target $2260.00 and $2185.00, while breaching the top and holding above it will reinforce the chances of recording historical gains by its rally towards $2525.00. 

The expected trading range for today is between $2260.00 and $2410.00

Trend forecast: Bearish

Break Below 200-Day Average Confirms Seller Control

Natural gas fell below the long-term trend indicator, the 200-day average, on Monday and closed below it thereby confirming the breakdown. Today’s clear bearish response shows the sellers continue to dominate despite a potential bullish hammer candle that formed yesterday. A low-end target is at the lower long-term uptrend line, currently at approximately $3.01. Failure of the 200-day average shows selling pressure at a degree that could see the lower uptrend line eventually reached and possibly lower levels.

ABCD Pattern Targets and Lower Trendline Risk

However, the next lower target zone is around $3.26 to $3.24 (D), consisting of a 78.6% projected target for a falling ABCD pattern and a 78.6% Fibonacci retracement of the full upswing from the August low. Given weakness today, it looks like that target will likely be reached before the bulls take back control. If it fails, then the lower trendline becomes a target. And if that line fails to reverse the descent a 100% projection for the ABCD pattern shows a potential target below the long-term uptrend line at $2.89.

Monthly Support Confluence Near Next Target Zone

It is interesting to note that the 20-month moving average is at $3.31 currently, near the next potential support zone. That means that the monthly chart also indicates potential support around the next lower price zone and therefore enhances the potential significance of that price zone.

Upside Scenarios Require Reclaim of Key Averages

On the upside, a rally above Monday’s high of $3.53 heads towards the 200-day average, now at $3.56. A daily close above the 200-day line would be needed to confirm strength, while Friday’s high of $3.70 being the first upside target, followed by a swing low at $3.80 (B). The 10-day average would then be next. It is now at $3.92 and falling.

For a look at all of today’s economic events, check out our economic calendar.