Spot gold is trading lower Wednesday after failing to extend Tuesday’s bounce from $4,103.52. The main trend is down according to the daily swing chart.

A trade through $4,399.67 will change the main trend to up. A move through $4,103.52 will reaffirm the downtrend.

The first resistance is the long-term 61.8% level at $4,230.51. Overtaking this level could extend the recovery into the 50% level at $4,319.61, followed closely by the 50-day moving average at $4,331.64.

On the downside, a break through $4,103.52 would expose the main bottoms at $3,996.06, $3,959.80 and $3,942.10.

What to Watch

The Fed minutes and the 10-year auction are what gold has to get through Wednesday. Both hit with the dollar firm again and the long end back near its highs.

I’m watching the 10-year more than any single line in the minutes. The auction shows what it costs to get somebody to own long-dated paper right now. Gold has been trading off that number all week. The minutes are the other half. Traders already know the committee hiked in September. What they don’t know is how many officials saw the jump in long-term yields as doing some of the Fed’s work for it. That’s the part that decides how December stays priced. The dollar is the third piece. It’s back within reach of Monday’s high with gold leaning on its own low.

Spot gold topped at $4,170.00 early and slid back toward Tuesday’s $4,103.52 low by mid-morning in London. The bias is to the downside while the main trend is down and spot gold remains below the 61.8% level at $4,230.51 and the 50-day moving average.

Trend Channel Breakout Opens Path Higher

Following the reclaim of the 200-day moving average, last week’s high was exceeded as noted above, and that was followed by a rise above the upper boundary of a rising trend channel. That upper boundary area may see resistance and stall the ascent but if support is confirmed near the 200-day moving average and followed by strength, a continuation higher to challenge last month’s peak of $3.317 could occur.

If you’d like to know more about how to trade natural gas, please visit our educational area.

Platinum price remains under negative pressure, with the price currently attempting to stabilize below the support level at $1705.00, increasing the chances of activating the previously suggested bearish scenario. We reiterate the importance of a daily close below the current support, which would strengthen the chances of targeting $1660.00 and $1605.00 in succession in the near term.

 

However, a return to stability above $1705.00 would force the price into mixed trading, with room for some gains as it advances toward the key resistance level at $1840.00.

 

The expected trading range for today is between $1660.00 and $1740.00

 

Trend forecast: Bearish

 

Despite the lack of positive momentum in natural gas price recently, its repeated stability above the additional support level at $2.850 reinforces the dominance of the previously suggested bullish trajectory, with the price currently advancing toward $3.120.

 

We expect the price to renew its bullish attempts and pressure the 55-period EMA, which has recently formed an important barrier at $3.250. Breaking above this level would open the way toward further positive targets, starting at $3.420 and $3.550, respectively.

 

The expected trading range for today is between $2.950 and $3.250

 

Trend forecast: Bullish

 

 

Coffee price continued to form strong bullish waves, moving further away from the pivotal support level at 269.00, as it responded to the positive signals from the main indicators and recorded notable gains, reaching 305.00 and thereby achieving the targets suggested in the previous report.

 

Currently, with the price attempting to establish 295.10 as additional support and positive momentum available, we expect it to resume its bullish advance, targeting 311.10 in the near term, followed by 320.75, closing the previously formed price gap.

 

The expected trading range for today is between 294.00 and 311.10

 

Trend forecast: Bullish

50-Day Average Becomes a Key Test

If Tuesday’s high leads to a break above resistance and confirms the formation of a higher swing low, the first notable test of support at the 50-day moving average will have been completed. After reclaiming that average in August there was one quick pullback to test it as support, but the current pullback is a wider swing and carries greater significance.

The successful defense of the 50-day moving average, combined with support at the August swing high and the rising trend channel, adds weight to the underlying strength suggested by the bullish structure. For now, Tuesday’s low at $88.66 is the key reference point, while a move above Tuesday’s high would provide the confirmation needed to turn this potential pullback low into a more meaningful bullish reversal.

Compression Raises Stakes for Next Move

The weekly chart is also showing increasing compression of price as the range contracted last week, putting it inside the range of the prior week. Subsequently, this week’s range could extend that compression to a second inside week. Expansion follows compression, and a second consecutive inside week on the weekly timeframe could lead to a sharp move in price.

Given recent bullish indications, the more likely direction looks to be higher. That potential for expansion makes the current test of the 200-day moving average especially important, as a successful breakout would provide the clearest confirmation yet that the developing bullish structure can continue.

The US Energy Information Administration raised its oil price forecasts for this year and next on Tuesday, citing rapidly declining global inventories and tight diesel supplies caused by the ongoing war with Iran, Reuters reported.The EIA now expects global benchmark Brent crude to average about $98 a barrel in 2026, an 8% increase from its previous projection, according to its latest Short-Term Energy Outlook.

Oil and fuel prices have surged since the US-Israeli war with Iran disrupted shipments through the Strait of Hormuz, which handled about 20% of global oil supplies before the conflict. Iran has also targeted regional energy infrastructure in retaliation for US military strikes.

Falling inventories and tight diesel supplies are expected to keep prices elevated. Brent is forecast to average about $105 a barrel in the fourth quarter, $14 above the EIA’s earlier estimate.

US retail diesel prices, which reached record highs last month, are projected to remain above $6 a gallon in October before gradually declining to an average of about $4.50 in 2027.

However, Middle Eastern oil production and exports are expected to recover gradually as transit through the Strait of Hormuz improves and producers increasingly use alternative export routes and ship-to-ship transfers.

As supply flows normalise and inventories rebuild, Brent is expected to average $84 a barrel in 2027, $10 above the agency’s previous forecast.

According to Reuters, regional oil flows have improved after Saudi Arabia resumed shipments through its East-West Pipeline to the Red Sea, bypassing the Strait of Hormuz. Exporters have also adapted to attacks on shipping and energy infrastructure through “dark transits,” in which tankers switch off their tracking systems before transferring cargo at sea.

These measures helped restore Gulf oil flows, excluding Iran, to more than 81% of pre-war levels in September.

As the workarounds expand, crude-production shutdowns are expected to decline from 4.5 million barrels per day in the fourth quarter of 2026 to 2.7 million barrels per day in the first quarter of 2027, the EIA said.

(Disclaimer: This article is based on inputs from agencies. These do not represent the views of The Economic Times)

Welcome, my fellow traders! I have prepared a price forecast for US Crude, XAUUSD, and EURUSD using a combination of the margin zones method and technical analysis. Based on the market analysis, I have identified entry signals for intraday traders.

Gold reached its second sell target today.

The article covers the following subjects:

Major Takeaways

• USCrude: Oil may break below the Target Zone of 88.79–87.46.
• XAUUSD: Gold has reached the second sell target at 4,110.
• EURUSD: The euro is correcting higher.

Oil Price Forecast for Today: USCrude Analysis

The oil price is approaching last week’s low around 87.30. If the asset settles below this low, it may pierce the Target Zone of 88.79–87.46. In this case, the next bearish target will be the Gold Zone of 84.36–83.92.

Consider short trades during a pullback from resistance A at 92.18–91.74, with targets at 89.74 and 87.30.

USCrude Trading Ideas for Today:

Sell at resistance A at 92.18–91.74. TakeProfit: 89.74, 87.30. StopLoss: 93.25.

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Gold Forecast for Today: XAUUSD Analysis

Today, gold reached 4,110, its second sell target. Currently, the price is correcting higher. The short-term trend remains bearish.

If the gold price climbs to resistance A at 4,217–4,206, one may consider short trades, targeting 4,160 and 4,104.

XAUUSD Trading Ideas for Today:

Sell at resistance A at 4,217–4,206. TakeProfit: 4,160, 4,104. StopLoss: 4,243.

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Euro/Dollar Forecast for Today: EURUSD Analysis

The euro is trading in a correction phase within a short-term downtrend. If it tests the resistance zone A at 1.1253–1.1245 during the correction, short positions can be considered, with the first target at 1.1207 and the second at 1.1161.

If the price falls below yesterday’s low, resistance A should be adjusted.

EURUSD Trading Ideas for Today:

Sell near resistance A at 1.1253–1.1245. TakeProfit: 1.1207, 1.1161. StopLoss: 1.1274.

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Price chart of XAUUSD in real time mode

It is not until the 28th that we roll over into the December contract. At that point, we really start to talk about people in the United States burning natural gas 24 hours a day. Until we get to that point, it is a little bit of a buy-the-dip opportunity, but it is also a market that probably has somewhat limited upside.

European LNG purchases this year could be a major story. We will just have to wait and see whether or not natural gas gets from Qatar to the EU. So far, it looks like that fear might be alleviated, but that is a wild card out there.