Domestic coffee prices

The domestic coffee market in today’s trading session recorded positive changes when prices simultaneously increased slightly in key growing areas. According to records, the average coffee price in the whole region reached the threshold of 86,500 VND/kg, an increase of 100 VND/kg compared to the previous trading session.

Specifically, in Dak Lak province, coffee prices are being purchased at 86,500 VND/kg. In Dak Nong province (old), the price reached the highest level in the region at 86,600 VND/kg, both increasing by 100 VND/kg. In Gia Lai, coffee prices also recorded 86,500 VND/kg. Meanwhile, in Lam Dong province, coffee prices remained stable at 86,000 VND/kg, without any new fluctuations compared to yesterday.

World coffee prices

At the close of the most recent trading session, world coffee prices recovered from the lowest level in 1.5 weeks. At the London exchange, Robusta coffee for July 2026 delivery increased by 3 USD, reaching 3,364 USD/ton. On the New York exchange, Arabica coffee for July 2026 delivery also increased by 0.85 cents, closing at 286.40 cents/lb.

The main driving force for the price recovery is the drop of the DXY index to its lowest level in 2 weeks, triggering speculators’ buy-backing activities. However, the upward momentum is still restrained by information about abundant supply prospects from Brazil. Coffee Trading Academy forecasts that the country’s 2026/27 crop output may reach 71.4 million bags, an increase of 12% over the same period. In particular, StoneX also gave a record figure of 75.3 million bags, forecasting that the global coffee surplus in 2026 will expand to 10 million bags.

In addition, Vietnam’s coffee exports in the first quarter of 2026 increased by 14% compared to the same period, reaching 585,000 tons, contributing to downward pressure on the London exchange in the long term. However, the actual inventory level on the ICE exchange is still at a record low (Robusta is the lowest in 16 months, Arabica is the lowest in 2 months) and geopolitical tensions affecting the transport route through the Strait of Hormuz are key factors supporting keeping prices from falling deeply.

Coffee price assessment and forecast

The coffee market is facing a fierce tug-of-war between forecasts of a record crop year in Brazil and short-term local supply cuts. Macroeconomic factors such as exchange rates and increased logistics costs due to geopolitical conflicts are playing a “supporting role” for prices. However, with large organizations continuously raising production forecasts, mid-term adjustment pressure is inevitable.

Platinum price took advantage of the stability above $1865.00 level, which represents a strong extra support, activating with stochastic intraday positivity by recording some gains, to settle near the moving average 55 at $1990.00.

 

The price needs a new positive momentum to help it to renew the bullish attempts, to expect reaching $2035.00 initially, to attempt to press on $2080.00 barrier, while the return of the trading below $1950.00 will confirm activating the bearish corrective trend again.

 

The expected trading range for today is between $1950.00 and $2035.00

 

Trend forecast: Bullish

Market participants are ignoring the silver shortage and increased demand, and amid risk-averse sentiment, they have been selling again. Thus, the rebound from support near $74.30 per ounce to resistance near $76.80 has again attracted selling interest, under pressure from which the metal has once again tested the aforementioned support. Overall, the risks of a breakout and a decline toward $73.20-72.80 remain. A break of resistance at $75.20-75.40 will lead to a rise toward $76.20-76.40 per ounce. In the long term, the uptrend remains valid, but range-bound trading and spikes in volatility are still possible in the near term.

Domestic coffee prices today

The domestic coffee market this morning, May 1, recorded a gloomy state as purchasing prices continued to fall, officially hitting the lowest level in a week.

According to surveys in key growing areas of the Central Highlands, the price of raw coffee beans has simultaneously decreased, pushing the regional average to the threshold of 87,700 VND/kg.

In Dak Nong province (old), coffee prices are currently trading at 87,800 VND/kg.

Dak Lak and Gia Lai localities both maintained stable prices at 87,600 VND/kg, while the Lam Dong area listed at the lowest level of 87,100 VND/kg.

Contrary to the decline of coffee, pepper prices still maintained their recovery when standing firm at 143,000 VND/kg.

World coffee prices

On world exchanges, red color covered brilliantly in the session closing early this morning with very deep declines.

The price of Arabica for July delivery on the New York exchange “evaporated” 5.15 cents, equivalent to 1.77%, closing at 294.90 cents/lb.

Similarly, the London exchange also witnessed the price of Robusta for July delivery plummet by 81 USD, equivalent to 2.35%, falling to 3,361 USD/ton.

This is the most negative adjustment in many recent sessions, reflecting investors’ concerns about the prospect of abundant supply from leading manufacturing powers in the world.

The main reason for this terrible drop is that forecasts of a “super-bumper” crop in Brazil are gradually becoming apparent. The Coffee Transaction Institute has just released an estimated figure that Brazil’s 2026/27 crop output will increase by 12% compared to the previous year, reaching about 71.4 million bags.

Even, Marex Group and StoneX have made bolder forecasts with figures up to nearly 76 million bags. This pressure becomes even heavier when StoneX forecasts that the global coffee surplus in 2026 will expand to 10 million bags, the highest level in the past 6 years. In Vietnam, the export growth in Q1 of 14% reaching 585,000 tons also contributed to easing concerns about short-term supply shortages in the international market.

Although the market is under great downward pressure, there are still some supporting factors hindering the free fall. The continued closure of the Strait of Hormuz due to geopolitical tensions is still putting pressure on global shipping, insurance and fertilizer costs.

In addition, coffee inventories on both ICE exchanges are still anchored at a record low, which is an important technical support to help prices not break deeper support levels. It is forecasted that in the coming days, domestic coffee prices will continue to fluctuate and accumulate around the 86,500 – 88,500 VND/kg range. Farmers need to be very alert to make appropriate trading decisions, avoiding panic in the context of speculative funds being aggressively liquidating positions.

The article covers the following subjects:

Major Takeaways

• Main scenario: Consider long positions from corrections above 91.50 with a target of 115.70–126.00. A buy signal: the price holds above 91.50. Stop Loss: below 89.50, Take Profit: 115.70–126.00.
• Alternative scenario: Breakout and consolidation below 91.50 will allow the asset to continue declining to the levels of 78.70–65.00. A sell signal: the level of 91.50 is broken to the downside. Stop Loss: above 93.50, Take Profit: 78.70–65.00.

Main Scenario

Consider long positions from corrections above 91.50 with a target of 115.70–126.00.

Alternative Scenario

Breakout and consolidation below 91.50 will allow the asset to continue declining to the levels of 78.70–65.00.

Analysis

A descending correction appears to have formed as the second wave of larger degree (2) on the weekly chart, with wave C of (2) completed as its part. On the daily timeframe, the ascending third wave (3) has started unfolding, with the first wave of smaller degree 1 of (3) still developing as its part. On the H4 chart, wave iii of 1 has likely formed, a local correction iv of 1 has been completed, and wave v of 1 continues to unfold. If the presumption is correct, WTI will continue to rise to 115.70–126.00. The level of 91.50 is critical in this scenario as a breakout below it will enable the asset to continue to decline to the levels of 78.70–65.00.

---

---

---

This forecast is based on the Elliott Wave Theory. When developing trading strategies, it is essential to consider fundamental factors, as the market situation can change at any time.

Price chart of USCRUDE in real time mode

There is a study by McKinsey that shows commodities spent the vast majority of their time in mean-reverting or range-bound states. It claims that commodities tend to trend about 20 to 30% of the time and trade sideways about 70 to 80%.

Studies by organizations like the World Gold Council show that gold’s volatility isn’t evenly distributed. It often enters “sleep” cycles where it moves sideways for years, followed by “vertical” cycles.

Last year, gold outperformed the S&P 500 significantly during months of high geopolitical stress, while moving sideways during risk-on periods. This year, it broke out of the long-term consolidation phase. That may have been the 30% trending phase. So brace yourself because we may be in the consolidation phase, but that doesn’t mean it’s untradeable.

Since the spike bottom on March 23 established support at $4,099.12 on the 200-day MA, I think that sends a signal that this indicator is support. Since it was rejected by the 50-day MA at $4,891.54 on April 17, we can say that it is resistance.

The price action this week shows it can still find support inside the moving averages. The current two-day rally may be telling us that we are in buy-the-dip mode. The recent reaction to the 50-day MA certainly told us that traders are selling rallies.

Once again, the market is giving you two choices: be active and take out offers, hoping for the breakout, or be passive and wait for the dip into value areas. I understand that traders like the “set it and forget it” trade, but that’s not happening now.

What I’m Watching

The way I see it, gold is still in sell-the-rally mode. Support is holding but buyers are not committing at these levels. The 10-Year U.S. Treasury yield and Fed rate expectations are the two levers that will decide this. Until one of them breaks in gold’s favor, this market grinds lower or goes nowhere. That is where we are.

If you’d like to know more about how to trade gold, please visit our educational area.

Natural gas price repeated their fluctuation above the extra support at $2.620, to begin forming some corrective wave, to settle near $2.800, affected by stochastic attempt to exit the oversold level.

 

The price may record intraday gains by its rally towards $3.000 reaching $3.180 resistance, while reaching below the extra support and providing negative close will confirm its readiness to resume the negative trend, reminding you that the stability of the negative targets near $2.390 reaching $2.250. 

 

The expected trading range for today is between $2.620 and $3.000

 

Trend forecast: Fluctuating within the bearish trend

Copper price kept its stability above the initial support at $5.8100, attempting to surpass the dominance of the bearish corrective trend, to notice its rally to the upside to settle near $5.930.

 

Despite stochastic attempt to provide positive momentum. Waiting to surpass $6.0500 and hold above it is important to reinforce the chances of forming bullish waves to reach positive stations that might begin at 6.1200, while the price decline below $5.8100 will open the way for resuming the corrective trend, to expect reaching $5.7000 and $5.5900.

 

The expected trading range is between $5.8100 and $6.0500

 

Trend forecast: Bearish by the stability of $6.0500

 

 

The precious metals may take much longer to challenge record prices set at the top of the year.

The US-Iran conflict is set to become a protracted war as leaders dig in their heels on any agreement. This week, the US rejectes an Iranian proposal to reopen the Strait of Hormuz in exchange for nuclear talk delays.

The fallout of a much longer war than expected is bound to exacerbate what the International Energy Agency has already called the largest energy supply shock on record.

---

This week’s US Federal Reserve rate decision also has the precious metals markets spooked that interest rates will remain in a holding pattern. Palladium was the only metal to post gains for the past week.

Let’s take a look at what’s got the precious metals moving over the past week.

Silver price news

The silver price has lost more than 2.8 percent over the course of the last week, and is down nearly 40 percent from its all-time high of US$121.62 per ounce, which it set on January 29. As the white metal battles the same downward pressures as gold, silver has traded in the US$72 to US$78 range for the last seven days.

Along with the other precious metals, silver slid near the end of last week and hung in wait-and-see mode for much of Monday before slipping once again on Tuesday in anticipation that the Fed would hold rates steady.

After a close of US$77.72 on Thursday, silver had lost nearly 3 percent by the end of Friday’s session at US$75.42. Monday saw the silver price remain rangebound around the US$75 level.

However, the next day the price of silver had fallen to an intraday low of US$72.04 before a close of US$73.11. Silver tracked gold downward on Wednesday following the Fed rate announcement to as low US$70.89.

Thursday’s early morning session saw the silver price regaining ground to nearly the US$74 level; however, that didn’t last long, and by 11:00 a.m. PDT the price of silver was trading at US$73.67.

Silver price chart, April 23 to April 30, 2026.

Chart via the Investing News Network.

While silver often follows gold’s lead, it is highly sensitive to industrial data that does not typically affect gold. The metal also experiences tighter supply fundamentals, so mine supply data can also have an impact.

Here’s a look at the silver market’s potential near-term catalysts:

• In mid-May, analysts are watching for the release of solar installation data updates. While some thrifting – using less silver per cell — is expected to lower silver demand from this segment in 2026, China and Europe’s planned massive rollouts remain a primary price floor.

• Also in May, artificial intelligence (AI) infrastructure and data center reports from major tech firms regarding infrastructure expansion could act as a silver-specific catalyst. The metal is essential for the high-conductivity components used in AI data centers.

For more on what’s developing in the silver market, check out INN’s article on AI data center and Bitcoin-mining company Hyperscale Data (ARCA:GPUS) finalizing a supply partnership with Scottsdale Mint to expand its corporate treasury strategy beyond digital assets and into precious metals; it includes the buildout of a silver reserve program.

Interested in silver-mining stocks? Check out INN’s list: ASX Silver Stocks: 5 Biggest Companies in 2026.

In other silver market news, the World Bank expects silver to average around US$70 for 2026.

Platinum price news

The platinum price fell more than 2.1 percent over the period, and remains well off its January 2026 all-time high near US$2,924 per ounce. In line with the precious metals complex, platinum experienced a volatile downtrend.

Platinum finished last week at US$2,017.40, and has not closed above the US$2,000 level since.

The negative pressure continued on Monday as stalled US-Iran peace talks and the continued blockage of the Strait of Hormuz hyped concerns that central banks will keep interest rates higher for longer. The price of platinum dropped as low as US$1,984.60 in the early morning before a close of US$1,991.80.

Along with the broad selloff in the precious metals market, the platinum price plunged further on Tuesday morning to reach US$1,917.40, its lowest level in four weeks.

The bloodbath for platinum continued on Wednesday, with the metal falling below the US$1,900 level in the morning; it couldn’t manage to retake that level at closing, ending at US$1,884.90.

However, on Thursday platinum took a turn as traders bought the dip on tight supply and healthy industrial demand. By 11:00 a.m. PDT, the price of platinum was trading at US$1,986.90.

Platinum price chart, April 23 to April 30, 2026.

Chart via the Investing News Network.

As for potential near-term catalysts for platinum, a few key industry reports are on the horizon:

• On May 18, the World Platinum Investment Council will release its next quarterly platinum market report. This analysis will provide the first major data on supply and demand for 2026.

• Also in May, Johnson Matthey (LSE:JMAT,OTCPL:JMPLY) will publish its annual report on platinum-group metals (PGMs). The comprehensive review will cover platinum, palladium and other rare PGMs.

Palladium price news

The price of palladium faced a sharp decline late last week before mounting a V-shaped recovery on Thursday, achieving a gain of 4 percent over the course of the past week.

Palladium has performed rather well up against its precious metal peers this year. However, its price remains well below the 2022 palladium peak of around US$3,440 per ounce.

The price of palladium was trading as high as US$1,585.50 on April 23, but by the following day its value had sunk to a close of US$1,473.50 on a deep selloff in precious metals.

On Monday, palladium remained below the critical US$1,500 level for a close of US$1,478.50. Over the following two days, the metal remained rangebound between US$1,450 and US$1,490.

On Thursday, palladium bounced back above the US$1,500 level, rising as high as US$1,549 in the late morning as investors reassessed palladium supply/demand dynamics for 2026.

As of 11:00 a.m. PDT that day, the metal was trading at US$1,536.50.

Palladium price chart, April 23 to April 30, 2026.

Chart via the Investing News Network.

Russia-based Nornickel, which controls approximately 40 percent of global palladium supply, reported that its Q1 palladium production fell by 18 percent year-on-year. The company said it expects its output to drop from 2.725 million ounces produced in 2025 to a projected range of 2.415 million to 2.465 million ounces for 2026.

Don’t forget to follow us @INN_Resource for real-time updates!

Securities Disclosure: I, Melissa Pistilli, hold no direct investment interest in any company mentioned in this article.

Editorial Disclosure: The Investing News Network does not guarantee the accuracy or thoroughness of the information reported in the interviews it conducts. The opinions expressed in these interviews do not reflect the opinions of the Investing News Network and do not constitute investment advice. All readers are encouraged to perform their own due diligence.

From Your Site Articles

Related Articles Around the Web