Futures are now approaching the 50-day moving average at $3.291, a level that will likely determine near-term direction. A sustained hold above this level could trigger a bounce back toward the $3.529–$3.585 resistance zone. However, failure to hold could open the door for a decline toward $3.122–$3.063, with the next key support band at $2.986–$2.938. The downside risk is heightened by seasonal weakness, as traders typically fade rallies into mild shoulder-season demand.

EIA Storage Miss Doesn’t Offset Ample Supply and Weak Demand

Despite the bullish surprise from the EIA, total storage stands at 3,561 Bcf—171 Bcf above the five-year average and 21 Bcf higher than this time last year. This reflects strong production and soft demand. BNEF data shows dry gas output hit 107.1 Bcf/d on Thursday, up 4.9% year-on-year, while Lower 48 demand dropped 4.4% to 67.9 Bcf/d. LNG exports dipped slightly to 15.3 Bcf/d. The Waha Hub cash market also hit record lows ahead of the PHP pipeline outage, underscoring regional bottlenecks.

Could Warm Weather and Strong Output Keep a Lid on Prices?

Forecasts for October 2–8 show weak national gas demand, with warm temperatures across most of the U.S. Atmospheric G2 is also calling for above-normal heat from October 12–16. This could further suppress residential and commercial heating load, keeping physical demand soft even as electricity output trends higher. The Edison Electric Institute reported a 5.96% year-over-year increase in U.S. electricity generation last week, but it hasn’t been enough to tip the demand balance meaningfully.

Market Forecast: Bearish Near-Term Outlook as Reversal Pattern Holds

The confirmed bearish reversal and seasonal low demand suggest more downside in the near term. A test of the 50-day MA near $3.291 is likely, and failure to hold that level could spark further liquidation. Until temperatures cool materially or production slows, natural gas prices are expected to remain under pressure.

More Information in our Economic Calendar.

Pullback Risks Increasing

Yet, such an extended rally also increases the likelihood of a sharper corrective move. The market has advanced with little pause, and while momentum remains supportive, the longer gold stretches away from its moving averages, the more vulnerable it becomes to mean reversion. A decisive drop below the 10-Day moving average, now at $3,805, could be the first warning that bullish momentum is beginning to weaken. Until then, the uptrend remains intact, represented by dynamic demand seen in the 10-Day line.

Fibonacci Target in Play

Gold’s advance has recently stalled near a 261.8% projection derived from a large ABCD pattern dating back several years. This long-term Fibonacci level at $3,897 has so far acted as resistance. A daily close above this week’s high of $3,897 would confirm a breakout through this resistance zone and open the door to the next projected target range between $3,969 and $4,000.

Channel Resistance Aligns with Targets

Adding to the significance of this upper range, the rising trend channel that has guided gold’s advance for months intersects near the $3,969 to $4,000 zone. This confluence of pattern resistance, Fibonacci projection, and channel resistance could represent a major technical barrier. Should gold extend into this area, traders will be closely watching for signs of exhaustion or a potential reversal.

Outlook

For now, buyers remain in charge, and the strong weekly close reinforces the bullish narrative heading into Monday. The challenge for bulls will be to sustain momentum above the 10-Day line and decisively push through the $3,897 threshold. A successful breakout could pave the way toward $4,000, while failure to hold current levels may finally trigger the deeper correction that has so far been avoided.

For a look at all of today’s economic events, check out our economic calendar.

The (silver) price declined in its last intraday trading, due to the stability of the key resistance at $47.50, attempting to gain positive momentum that might help it to recover and rise again, amid the continuation of the positive pressure due to its trading above EMA50, under the dominance of the main bullish trend on the short-term basis and its trading alongside trendline, noticing the emergence of positive overlapping signals on the relative strength indicators, after reaching oversold levels.

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Natural gas price reached $3.600 level, achieving the second suggested target in the previous report, which forced it to form quick correctional rebound, to settle near $3.440.

The intraday sideways trading is caused by stochastic exit from the overbought level, to expect providing unstable mixed trading until gathering the extra positive momentum, to ease the mission of resuming the bullish attack, and reaching extra stations that are represented by $3.710 and $3.830.

The expected trading range for today is between $3.380 and $3.600

Trend forecast: Fluctuated

Created on October 03, 2025

• Silver initially did try to rally a bit during the trading session here on Thursday but really could not hang on to the gains as the 48 dollars level continues to be a very difficult market to break above.
• With that being said, I think you have a situation where this sell off did the market some good but it’s also possible that we have further to go and we’ll just have to wait and see.

I would love to see the $45 level tested. We’ll have to wait and see whether or not that can happen. When you drill down to the hourly chart, it really shows itself as being extraordinarily negative. But now it looks like $46 is trying to hold after a plunge like we saw in the early part of the day. To be honest with you, I would expect a little bit of follow through.

Shorting is all but impossible

All things being equal. I don’t necessarily think this is a market that you’re looking to short. I think this pullback is healthy. The market, I think given enough time, we’ll try to find value somewhere at a lower level and I want to be involved in this market when it bounces. I want to see a drop and then rally a bit so I can be on the right side of the V shaped pattern.

When you look at silver, can see that it’s been straight up in the air for the most part since late August. So maybe it is time to give back a little bit of those gains. Well, to wait and see, but $45 for me is a very interesting place to be. If we break the $48 level between now and then, it could open up a move to the $50 level. But remember $50 has been attempted twice in the past and both times it was a major issue going back to the seventies. We’ve seen $50 act as a very difficult barrier.

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Christopher Lewis has been trading Forex and has over 20 years experience in financial markets. Chris has been a regular contributor to Daily Forex since the early days of the site. He writes about Forex for several online publications, including FX Empire, Investing.com, and his own site, aptly named The Trader Guy. Chris favours technical analysis methods to identify his trades and likes to trade equity indices and commodities as well as Forex. He favours a longer-term trading style, and his trades often last for days or weeks.

Created on October 03, 2025

• The gold market has been all over the place during the trading session here on Thursday as we are starting to struggle with the idea of the $3,900 level.
• Ultimately, I think this is a situation where if we do get a pullback, that’s a good thing.
• The market has been so strong for so long now that I think you have to look at this through the prism of a market that just quite frankly is on fire, and it looks like it’s doing everything it can to get to the $4,000 level.

Pullbacks are Good for Gold

I do think the pullbacks make a lot of sense and I do like buying them. The $3,800 level is an area that I’m very interested in myself, as the ascending triangle had a measured move to the $3,800 level that we did in fact break above. By breaking above there, it suggests to me at least that the market is going to remain bullish for quite some time, but I also recognize that there’s probably a bit of market memory in that area. Anything below there doesn’t necessarily mean that I would get bearish on this market, just that I might be a little bit more selective.

To the upside, the $4,000 level is the obvious target and I do think that given enough time, we will reach that level. The Federal Reserve is likely to cut rates a couple of times between now and summer, but that may not even be the big driver. I think a lot of concerns about global economic instability is a major problem. So, with this, I’m bullish on gold. I would like to see a little bit more of a pullback and try to buy it cheaply. At this point, it is all but impossible to get short of gold, so a little bit of patience will more likely than not pay off.

Ready to trade our Gold price forecast? We’ve made a list of the best Gold trading platforms worth trading with.

Christopher Lewis has been trading Forex and has over 20 years experience in financial markets. Chris has been a regular contributor to Daily Forex since the early days of the site. He writes about Forex for several online publications, including FX Empire, Investing.com, and his own site, aptly named The Trader Guy. Chris favours technical analysis methods to identify his trades and likes to trade equity indices and commodities as well as Forex. He favours a longer-term trading style, and his trades often last for days or weeks.

Natural gas price reached $3.600 level, achieving the second suggested target in the previous report, which forced it to form quick correctional rebound, to settle near $3.440.

The intraday sideways trading is caused by stochastic exit from the overbought level, to expect providing unstable mixed trading until gathering the extra positive momentum, to ease the mission of resuming the bullish attack, and reaching extra stations that are represented by $3.710 and $3.830.

The expected trading range for today is between $3.380 and $3.600

Trend forecast: Fluctuated

The (Brent) price rose in its last trading on the intraday levels, amid the dominance of main bearish wave on the short-term basis, with the continuation of the negative pressure that comes from its trading below EMA50, intensifying the negative pressure around the price, attempting to recover some of its previous losses, and offloading some of its clear oversold levels on the relative strength indicators, especially with the emergence of the positive signals.

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