Key Resistance Levels

The rally cleared the 161.8% ABCD projection at $4.45, measured from August’s corrective low (A), but fell just short of a 127.2% Fibonacci extension at $4.54. The 78.6% retracement at $4.41 and the top channel line (150% extension of the original rising channel) continue to define resistance, with today’s high pushing further above that line.

Channel Dynamics

Price is poised for a potential second close above the 150% channel line, a feat achieved only once before in this advance. Sustained demand could propel natural gas toward the next channel line at the 175% extension. Five days of relentless testing against the top channel line with minimal pullback highlight exceptional bullish conviction.

Broader Trend Context

The March $4.90 peak—8.7% above today’s high—saw a fleeting one-day spike ending in a bearish doji shooting star, suggesting light supply in the $4.45–$4.90 range. The long-term bull trend regained traction in late October, confirmed by reclaiming the 200-day moving average, breaking a downtrend line, and surpassing a prior swing high (B).

Correction Risk Assessment

Six days of quasi-sideways action with an upward tilt may constitute a minor correction, but the rally’s extension increases pullback risk. A break below today’s $4.26 low signals near-term weakness; the six-day low at $4.18 is more critical, with the 10-day moving average at $4.11 offering initial dynamic support.

Outlook

Natural gas remains firmly bullish, with the $4.51 breakout and outside day reinforcing demand toward $4.54 and potentially the 175% channel line. A drop below $4.26–$4.18 would target $4.11 support, but sustained strength above the 150% channel line keeps higher targets in play. The next few sessions will clarify if correction pressures intensify.

For a look at all of today’s economic events, check out our economic calendar.

Quick Recovery Context

The recapture of both moving averages marks a swift rebound after silver spent 14 days below them. Lower correction targets included the 50-day average at $46.53, now rising and converging with the channel centerline confirmed at $45.55—suggesting the pullback may be complete and the bull trend poised to resume.

Bull Trend Confirmation

Conviction from the $45.55 reversal will be measured against the mid-October $54.49 peak; exceeding that level confirms continuation. Today’s strength reduces odds of an immediate second top, with the bullish hammer and inside week on the weekly chart adding validation.

Next Resistance Zone

The four-week high at $52.78 emerges as the immediate upside objective. Today’s breakout already triggered the inside week and hammer setup, with confirmation likely on a daily close above the three-week high of $49.38.

Rising Channel Relationship

Silver operates within a rising trend channel that saw a late September breakout above the top line. The recent pullback briefly dipped below but respected the line as support on multiple occasions, including the $49.38 minor swing high test of resistance.

Channel Breakout Status

Today’s $50.56 high returned silver above the top channel line—another bullish signal. A successful retest of the line as support will confirm a second channel breakout and open higher measured targets.

Outlook

Silver’s rapid recovery and channel re-breakout favor bull trend continuation toward $52.78 and potentially $54.49. Watch for support confirmation at the top channel line on any pullback; sustained trade above $49.38 keeps momentum intact, while failure below $45.55–$46.53 would reopen correction risks.

Gold Price (XAU/USD) Rebounds to $4,085 as Shutdown Progress and Fed Dovish Bets Drive Bullish Momentum

Gold surged to $4,085 per ounce, extending last week’s recovery as investors priced in a near 70% chance of a December rate cut by the Federal Reserve. The rally comes amid weakening U.S. labor data, falling consumer sentiment, and signs of a possible end to the historic government shutdown — a combination that’s undermining the U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) and pushing safe-haven demand sharply higher.

The Senate’s 60–40 vote to reopen federal agencies reduced near-term political risk while triggering broad risk-on flows across markets. Yet, gold’s strength shows investors are betting that fiscal relief will lead to a weaker dollar and renewed liquidity — a classic setup that supports precious metals.

Weak U.S. Labor Market and Consumer Confidence Bolster Gold’s Upside

Fresh macro data from October revealed deep cracks in the U.S. job market. Over 150,000 layoffs were reported, marking the largest October job-cut total in over two decades. Meanwhile, the University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index plunged to 50.3, the lowest since mid-2022 and well below the forecasted 53.2.

The downturn reinforced investor conviction that the Fed will deliver another 25 basis point cut at the December meeting, reducing rates to the 3.50%–3.75% range. For XAU/USD, lower rates directly translate to reduced opportunity costs, making the metal more attractive than yield-bearing assets.

Traders note that the recent slowdown in Non-Farm Payroll growth, averaging just 95,000 per month in 2025 versus 200,000+ in 2023–2024, signals fading momentum across multiple sectors. These data points continue to anchor bullish sentiment around gold, as rate-sensitive investors hedge against further U.S. economic weakness.

Central Bank Demand and Emerging Market Buying Support Long-Term Bullish Structure

Central bank accumulation remains one of the most powerful undercurrents in gold’s rally. According to the World Gold Council, global central banks — led by China, India, and Turkey — have collectively added over 800 tonnes of gold in 2025 through Q3.

Emerging markets continue to diversify reserves away from U.S. Treasuries and into gold amid persistent currency volatility. This structural trend has created a floor under gold prices near the $3,900–$4,000 range, insulating the market from deeper corrections.

Institutional flows confirm similar behavior, with ETFs recording three consecutive weeks of inflows totaling over $3.1 billion. This surge reflects renewed conviction that XAU/USD remains undervalued relative to its inflation-hedge appeal and central bank hoarding pace.

Technical Outlook: XAU/USD Retests Resistance as Trend Turns Fully Bullish

Technically, gold has re-established its bullish trajectory. After bouncing off the 20-day EMA near $3,981, buyers defended the $4,000 psychological level and pushed prices toward the $4,085 zone, confirming renewed upward strength.

Key resistance now stands near $4,100–$4,130, with an extension target of $4,265, last month’s high. If momentum persists, the market could retest the October record near $4,380, before a broader advance toward $4,400–$4,500.

On the downside, immediate support is positioned at $4,025, followed by $3,900 at the 50-day EMA. Momentum indicators remain constructive — the RSI at 54 and a bullish MACD crossover signal a continued upward bias.

Shutdown Resolution and Fiscal Impact Create Double-Edged Reaction for Gold

While the Senate’s move to end the shutdown temporarily boosts investor confidence, the fiscal implications could paradoxically support gold further. Reopened federal spending raises long-term deficit projections, adding to structural debt concerns that historically fuel gold accumulation.

Analysts emphasize that the shutdown’s resolution is not inherently bearish for gold. Although it may cause a short-lived USD bounce, broader market interpretation leans toward higher fiscal outflows, delayed growth, and lower yields — all favorable for gold’s medium-term outlook.

Traders are now watching how the Treasury market absorbs the $125 billion in new issuance this week. Should yields remain subdued despite supply expansion, XAU/USD could see another leg higher toward $4,200 before mid-November.

Fed Policy Expectations Remain the Dominant Catalyst

Markets continue to price a 64%–70% chance of a December rate cut as inflation slows and growth data weaken. Fed officials’ tone has softened, with policymakers hinting that policy tightening has achieved sufficient disinflation.

Lower real rates historically create a twofold benefit for gold: they diminish the relative yield advantage of bonds and weaken the dollar’s purchasing power. The current DXY range around 99.5 underscores fading demand for the greenback, with multiple analysts projecting further downside toward 98.7 in Q4.

The bond market reinforces this narrative — the 10-year Treasury yield (BX:TMUBMUSD10Y) holding near 4.11% reflects stable nominal yields against falling inflation expectations, creating the ideal backdrop for sustained XAU/USD strength.

Institutional Strategies Shift Toward Defensive Positioning in Gold

Institutional traders are increasingly using bull call spreads and put-sell combinations to capture upside while managing volatility. With volatility metrics subdued and implied skew favoring calls, options desks indicate rising appetite for $4,200–$4,400 strike exposure through December.

Funds also appear to be rotating from equities into commodities — particularly gold and silver — amid valuation concerns in AI and tech sectors. Silver, gold’s industrial counterpart, has gained 1% this week, hovering near $50 per ounce with 65% year-to-date performance, reflecting broader precious metal strength.

Market data shows speculative long positions in COMEX gold futures increasing by over 8% week-on-week, the largest net build since March. These leveraged inflows align with strong ETF demand, confirming synchronized institutional optimism.

Dollar Devaluation Trade and Fiscal Risk Keep Gold’s Bullish Case Intact

Despite the brief recovery in risk assets, the dollar-devaluation trade remains the key macro narrative supporting gold. Analysts highlight persistent deficits, rising interest costs, and expanding debt-to-GDP ratios as the primary long-term drivers for gold’s appreciation.

Experts warn that even a temporary delay in the next rate cut won’t derail the bullish thesis, as the underlying real yield compression and fiscal imbalance maintain structural support for precious metals.

Forecasts from leading institutions reinforce this trajectory — Goldman Sachs targets $5,055, Bank of America $5,000, and UBS $4,700 under its upside scenario by 2026. Consensus targets for Q1 2026 cluster around $4,200–$4,400, implying moderate upside but strong retention above current levels.

TradingNews Verdict: BUY Bias Maintained

After analyzing labor weakness, rate expectations, central bank accumulation, and technical resilience, TradingNews maintains a decisive BUY outlook on Gold (XAU/USD). Support at $4,000 remains firm, while upside potential stretches toward $4,200–$4,400 in the short term and $5,000+ over the next 12 months.

Gold continues to stand as the preferred macro hedge in an environment of dovish monetary policy, fiscal expansion, and dollar devaluation. Unless the Fed surprises with hawkish rhetoric or DXY rebounds above 100.3, the path of least resistance remains upward.

The technical and fundamental alignment — from Fed expectations to central bank flows — confirms that gold’s bullish cycle remains intact, positioning XAU/USD as one of the most resilient trades heading into 2026.

That’s TradingNEWS

The EURJPY pair affected by stochastic positivity, form bullish waves to retest the barrier at 177.85, to settle below it to keep the chances of activating the bearish corrective track, note that the initial corrective target in the current trading near 177.05 level, by providing negative momentum that might help it to reach near 175.85 support.

While confirming regaining the bullish bias requires forming a new bullish rally, to open the way a new chance to press on the top at 178.70. surpassing it will make it record new gains by its rally towards 179.30 and 180.00.

The expected trading range for today is between 177.00 and 178.15

Trend forecast: Bearish.

The Federal Reserve has held rates steady since September, but the combination of softer employment data and declining business confidence has prompted speculation that policymakers may ease monetary conditions to support demand heading into 2026.

Weak Labor Market Fuels Safe-Haven Demand

The latest labor data underscored the fragility of the US job market. Private employers cut 153,000 jobs in October, the steepest monthly decline in over two decades. Layoffs in the government and retail sectors, coupled with an uptick in corporate cost-cutting, heightened fears of a broader slowdown.

Consumer sentiment also dropped to its lowest level in nearly three and a half years, according to a University of Michigan survey, as Americans grew increasingly concerned about inflation, fiscal uncertainty, and the prolonged government shutdown.

These developments have pushed investors toward precious metals, which tend to perform well in times of economic uncertainty and falling interest-rate expectations.

Silver Tracks Gold Higher on Industrial Outlook

Silver followed gold higher, supported by its dual role as both a safe-haven and an industrial metal. Analysts at Metals Focus noted that expectations of weaker Treasury yields and a potential rebound in manufacturing activity could sustain silver’s momentum.

With market attention turning to Fed speeches and upcoming inflation data, traders are closely watching whether policymakers confirm growing market bets on a softer monetary path through year-end.

No news for copper price by forming weak sideways trading, to keep its stability near $5.000 level due to the contradiction between the main indicators, which might force it to delay the main bullish rally.

Notet that the stability of the current trading below $5.2000 level might force it to provide some bearish corrective trading, to target the initial support level at $4.7500, while breaching the barrier will reinforce the chances of recording extra gains by its rally towards $5.3200 initially.

The expected trading range for today is between $4.9000 and $5.1500

Trend forecast: Fluctuated within the bullish track