Silver (XAG/USD) struggles to capitalize on the previous day’s positive move and oscillates in a narrow trading band during the Asian session on Thursday. The white metal, however, holds above the 100-hour Simple Moving Average (SMA) and currently trades just above mid-$76.00s, down 1.0% for the day.

The XAG/USD holds above this average, signaling a tentative recovery attempt. Moreover, the overnight breakout through a short-term descending channel resistance, which coincides with the said SMA, favors bulls. Meanwhile, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) sits at 55, neutral, after easing from earlier overbought readings.

However, the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) histogram has slipped into slight negative territory after contracting, suggesting the MACD line has fallen below the Signal line near the zero level. The descending channel resistance breakpoint and the 100-hour SMA should offer initial support to the XAG/USD.

Holding above the SMA would keep recovery attempts in play, while a close back beneath it would open the door to a deeper pullback. As long as the XAG/USD holds above the breakout point, the path would favor further recovery. That said, a close back inside the formation would revive the prior downtrend toward the lower band.

(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool.)

XAG/USD 1-hour chart

Silver (XAG/USD) trades with a positive tone on Wednesday, snapping a two-day losing streak as dip buyers step in to cushion the downside. At the time of writing, XAG/USD is hovering around $77.50, up over 5.5% on the day.

Despite the intraday bounce, the white metal could struggle to build on gains in the near term as traders reassess the evolving macro backdrop and technical landscape. Investors remain cautious about chasing prices aggressively higher, with speculative interest cooling after the sharp correction from record highs near $121.66 set in late January.

At the same time, signs of progress in US-Iran talks could weigh on safe-haven demand, but Silver’s dual role as both an industrial and investment metal remains supportive, while a persistent physical supply deficit helps to keep the broader outlook supported on dips.

Trading volumes are expected to remain thin, with China and several other Asian markets closed for the Lunar New Year holiday. The closure of the Shanghai Futures Exchange (SHFE), one of the largest venues for physical silver trading and delivery, may reduce liquidity during Asian hours, with trading activity likely to normalize when markets reopen next Tuesday.

From a technical perspective, the 4-hour chart is starting to turn constructive. XAG/USD is forming a triangle pattern, with price action compressing and volatility narrowing, increasing the risk of a breakout in either direction.

Momentum indicators are beginning to tilt in favor of the bulls. The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) has crossed into positive territory and remains above its signal line, pointing to improving upside momentum.

Meanwhile, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) is holding near 55, firming above the neutral 50 mark and suggesting strengthening buying pressure.

On the upside, immediate resistance stands near the upper boundary of the triangle around the $80.00 psychological mark. A break above this level could pave the way toward the 100-period SMA at $85.69. However, the near-term bias remains tilted to the downside unless price clears that moving average decisively.

On the downside, a break below the lower boundary of the triangle could expose the recent correction low near $64.00, which may act as the next key support level.

XAU/USD Current price: $4,999

• FOMC Minutes unlikely to impact prices with all eyes on Kevin Warsh.
• The US Dollar trades mixed amid persistent political uncertainty in the United States.
• XAU/USD maintains its neutral stance, upside capped by the $5,030 region

Spot Gold trades with a better tone on Thursday, trimming previous session losses and struggling to recover the $5,000 mark in the American session. The bright metal managed to recover from a weekly low of $4,842.06 achieved on Wednesday, but the lack of follow-through is likely to keep buying interest subdued.

The US Dollar (USD) trades mixed across the FX board as investors await the release of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) February monetary policy meeting. Policymakers held the interest rate unchanged when they met in January, in line with the market expectations. The accompanying statement provided not many clues on what’s next in the docket, while the following press conference led by Federal Reserve (Fed) Chair Jerome Powell revolved around politics rather than monetary policy.

And there’s a good reason for that: Chair Powell’s term ends in May, and President Donald Trump has already nominated Kevin Warsh as his successor. Warsh’s Senate approval remains pending, but market players assume he will be the next head of the Fed and that he will deliver rate cuts. How many and at what pace remains a doubt. Yet the biggest doubt is whether the Fed could remain independent if Warsh shows signs of pleasing Trump rather than following the FOMC’s path.

Back to the Minutes, the document has little chance of impressing market players, as all eyes are on whatever Warsh may or may not do.

XAU/USD short-term technical outlook

The 4-hour chart for XAU/USD shows the pair remains neutral. It trades above a flat 20-period Simple Moving Average (SMA) at $4,961.02, while a directionless 100-period SMA caps advances at $5,009.35. The 200-period SMA aims higher at $4,844.63, keeping the broader bias underpinned even as price consolidates between the shorter benchmarks. At the same time, the Momentum indicator heads nowhere around its midline, while the Relative Strength Index (RSI) indicator steadies at 55, reinforcing the idea of a consolidative phase.

In the daily chart, XAU/USD is unable to advance beyond a bullish 20-day SMA at around $5,003 for a second consecutive day. Meanwhile, technical indicators bounced, the Momentum from near oversold readings and still dipped into negative territory, and the RSI indicator from around its midline, aiming north at around 54. The longer moving averages in the daily chart maintainain their bullish slopes far below the current level, helping limit the mid-term bearish case.

(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool.)

Silver prices (XAG/USD) collapsed for the first time in the week, down nearly 5% sponsored by steady US Treasury yields and a firm US Dollar, which weighed on the white metal. At the time of writing, XAG/USD trades at $73.49 after peaking at $76.87.

XAG/USD Price Forecast: Technical outlook

The technical picture shows Silver is neutral biased but tilted to the downside. Price action shows a successive series of lower highs, along with hitting a six-day low at $72.00, which once decisively surpassed, clears the door to test $70.00.

The Relative Strength Index (RSI) slope is downwards, along with remaining at bearish territory, hints that XAG/USD could continue its path towards testing the 100-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) at $64.71.

On further weakness, the next support would be the $60.00 milestone.

Conversely, if XAG/USD reclaims $75.00, buyers could remain hopeful of challenging the 50-day SMA at $79.39. A breach of the latter will expose $80.00.

XAG/USD Price Chart — Daily

XAU/USD Current price: $4,869

• Gold’s failure to retain the $5,000 mark leads to firmer selling interest.
• The US Dollar gains even in a risk-averse environment amid American economic resilience.
• XAU/USD drew a line in the sand for buyers in early February at $4,402.

Gold buyers have been reluctant to give up, but XAU/USD’s behaviour suggests they may face a tough battle in the upcoming days. The rally that saw the Gold price double in a little over a year and drove the bright metal to record highs came to a halt at the end of January, when the price dropped $1,200 per ounce in a couple of days.

The subsequent recovery was initially encouraging, but continued failure to retain gains beyond the $5,000 is discouraging buyers more as time goes by. Even worse, risk-off peaks tend to benefit the Greenback, even against the safe-haven par excellence.

The battle between sellers and buyers is likely to continue, yet the firsts are slowly gaining ground. Following failure to retain the psychological mark, Gold is making lower lows on a daily basis, usually a sign of further declines ahead.

What makes the US Dollar a better bet?

There’s one word to sum it up: resilience. The United States (US) economy has proven resilient, with steady growth despite fluctuations in the labor market and stubborn inflation. It has also proved resilient despite US President Trump’s foreign and protectionist policies, and even with the Federal Reserve’s independence under threat. One may love it or hate it, but there’s no doubt the US is the world’s largest economy, and there’s nobody out there to challenge the crown.

XAU/USD short-term technical outlook

Gold drew a line in the sand in early February, bottoming at $4,402. As long as the price remains above the level, bulls will retain some hopes, yet the closer the level comes, the more discouraged they will be.

In the near term, and according to the 4-hour chart, XAU/USD is bearish. The 20-period Simple Moving Average (SMA) has slipped beneath the 100-period SMA, both tilt lower, and are above the current level, providing near-term dynamic resistance at $4,967 and $5,017. Meanwhile, a mildly bullish 200-period SMA provides support around $4,827. The Momentum indicator aims marginally lower within neutral levels, yet the Relative Strength Index (RSI) indicator at 33 hints at lower lows ahead.

In the daily chart, XAU/USD finally broke below the 20-day SMA, now capping advances in the $4,990 area. Price holds above the longer SMAs, which, anyway, develop below the critical $4,400 region. Finally, technical indicators aim firmly lower, with the Momentum dipping into negative territory and the RSI crossing its midline to the downside, in line with mounting selling pressure.

(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool.)

Silver price (XAG/USD) trades lower to near $73.70 on Tuesday at the time of writing, down 3.50% on the day. The white metal has been under pressure as dovish Federal Reserve (Fed) expectations remain capped despite cooling United States (US) inflation in January.

Theoretically, immaterial dovish Fed prospects in the near term weigh on non-yielding assets, such as Silver.

The data released on Friday showed that the US headline inflation dropped to 2.4% YoY from 2.7% in December. In the same period, the core Consumer Price Index (CPI) – which excludes volatile food and energy items – grew moderately by 2.5%, as expected, against the previous reading of 2.6%.

Meanwhile, investors brace for high volatility in the North American session as US markets will open after an extended weekend.

This week, the major trigger for the Silver price will be the release of Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) minutes of the January policy meeting on Wednesday. In the meeting, the Federal Reserve left interest rates unchanged in the range of 3.50%-3.75%.

Globally, investors will pay attention to the second round of talks between the US and Iran in Geneva during the day. Delegates from both nations are expected to discuss the nuclear programme in Tehran. Ahead of talks, US President Donald Trump has signaled that Iran will make a deal, while warning that the nation will face consequences if they don’t resolve issues.

Silver technical analysis

In the daily chart, XAG/USD trades at $73.68. The 20-day exponential moving average descends to $83.30, signaling a weakening short-term structure. Price holds below this gauge, keeping rebounds capped and leaving sellers in control. RSI (14) at 42.17 (neutral) stays under the midline, indicating momentum favors the downside without oversold conditions.

A daily close back above the falling 20-day EMA would ease immediate pressure and improve the near-term tone. Absent that, the path of least resistance remains lower, with failed bounces prone to being faded as the average continues to cap recovery attempts.

(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool.)