Natural gas prices are affected by stochastic positivity, to keep forming bullish correctional waves, recovering more of the losses by hitting $3.010 level, approaching from the neckline of the negative head and shoulders that appear in the above image.

 Note that the stability of the trading below the resistance at $3.160, and the attempts of the main indicators to provide the negative momentum, these factors support the bearish suggestion, to expect reaching $2.810, then attempts to press on the barrier near $2.620, while the price success in breaching the resistance will cancel the bearish suggestion, providing chances for building new bullish track in the upcoming period trading.

The expected trading range for today is between $2.810 and $3.050

Trend forecast: Bearish

The (Brent) price witnessed fluctuated move on its last intraday levels, amid its attempts to breach the current resistance level at $67.60, this level was our yesterday’s suggested target, taking advantage of the dynamic support that is represented by its trading above EMA50, and under the dominance of the bullish correctional trend on the short-term basis and its trading alongside a supportive bias line for this track, on the other hand, we notice the emergence of negative overlapping signals on the (RSI), after reaching overbought levels, which might decelerate the rise.

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• Gold retreats from near five-week highs of $3,423 amid pre-US PCE data repositioning.
• The US Dollar consolidates the Asian rebound as Fed concerns remain a drag.  
• Technically, Gold recaptures $3,400 on Thursday’s closing basis, the daily RSI remains bullish.

Gold is pulling back from near five-week highs of $3,423 set on Thursday, snapping a three-day uptrend early Friday. Traders now await the US core Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index for a boost in Gold.

Gold: All eyes on US PCE inflation data

Gold is bearing the brunt of the overnight bounce in the US Dollar (USD) as traders resort to position adjustments ahead of the critical US inflation data.

However, resurfacing concerns over the US Federal Reserve’s independence check the US USD rebound, leaving Gold in an upside consolidative range near five-week highs.

US Vice President JD Vance’s comments in a USA Today interview on Thursday confirmed the end of the Fed’s autonomy, pressuring the Greenback once again.

In another instance about doubts over the Fed’s independence, Fed Governor Lisa Cook filed a lawsuit on Thursday against US President Donald Trump’s effort to fire her.

Trump, in his latest tweet, referring to a Bloomberg piece on a third property transaction now being questioned, said: “Pulte ups Cook scrutiny with criminal referral on third mortgage.”

Meanwhile, Fed Governor Christopher Waller’s dovish remarks also continue to undermine the sentiment around the buck.

Waller said that he would support an interest-rate cut in the September meeting and further reductions over the next three to six months to prevent the labor market from collapsing, per Reuters.

Markets maintain their expectations for a September interest rate cut at around 87%, according to the CME Group’s Fed Watch Tool.

Against this background, the Fed’s favorite inflation measure, the core PCE Price Index, will be closely scrutinized for fresh clues on further easing by the Fed beyond the September meeting.

The core PCE inflation is seen steadying at 2.6% year-over-year (YoY) and 0.3% month-over-month (MoM) in July.

Any downside surprise in the core PCE figures could ramp up Fed rate cut bets, boosting the non-yielding Gold at the expense of the USD and vice versa.

Gold price technical analysis: Daily chart

The short-term technical outlook for Gold continues to paint a rosy picture amid a bullish crossover and a 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI)

The leading indicator is currently flirting with the 60 level.

Meanwhile, the 21-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) closed above the 50-day SMA on Monday, confirming the bullish crossover.

The immediate topside hurdle is seen in the previous day’s high of $3,423, above which the static resistance at around $3,440 will come into play.

Further up, the June 16 high of $3,453 will be put to the test.

On the flip side, the immediate support is located at the previous day’s low of $3,385, below which sellers will attack the 21-day SMA at $3,366,

A sustained break below the latter will expose the 50-day SMA at $3,349.

Copper price faced stochastic negativity by its stability above the extra support at $4.2600, keeping the chances for renewing the bullish attempts, while gathering the bullish momentum makes us expect targeting $4.6200, pressing on the barrier near $4.7500 to find an exit to resume the bullish attempts.

While the risk of changing the main trend is represented by forming a sharp decline, to settle below the support of the bullish channel towards $4.0750, which forces it to suffer several losses by reaching $3.9200 initially.

The expected trading range for today is between $4.3000 and $4.6200

Trend forecast: Bullish

Gold Price Forecast: XAU/USD Battles $3,400 Resistance as Fed Uncertainty Shapes Next Move

Gold Consolidates Around $3,400 Amid Political Turmoil

Gold (XAU/USD) is trading firmly around $3,400 per ounce, with intraday highs stretching toward $3,410, its strongest levels in over five weeks. The move comes as investors digest a storm of political and monetary developments. The U.S. Dollar weakened after Federal Reserve Governor Lisa Cook filed a lawsuit against President Trump, challenging his attempt to remove her from the central bank. This clash has thrown Fed independence into the spotlight, unsettling markets and underpinning demand for safe-haven assets like gold.

While bullion is holding near the upper end of its summer range, the price has yet to escape the $200 band between $3,250 and $3,450 that has defined trading since June. Analysts caution that despite several bullish drivers over recent months—including central bank buying, resilient ETF inflows, and lower Treasury yields—gold has struggled to advance beyond the May high near $3,500.

ETF Demand and Central Bank Buying Keep the Floor Firm

Investor participation remains selective, but structural demand continues to tighten the gold market. Holdings in the SPDR Gold Trust (NYSEARCA: GLD) rose 0.6% this week to their largest in over seven days, signaling institutional inflows. At the same time, central banks remain consistent buyers of bullion, with monthly accumulation trending near record levels.

Despite these inflows, derivatives activity paints a more cautious picture. Open interest in CME Comex gold futures has fallen to its lowest in 18 months, highlighting that speculative traders are reducing exposure. This divergence between ETF flows and futures positioning shows gold is increasingly a market driven by longer-term strategic buyers rather than short-term leveraged players.

Gold Technicals: Resistance Near $3,440, Breakout Hinges on $3,500

From a technical perspective, gold’s ability to reclaim the $3,400 handle is significant, but momentum will be tested by layered resistance above. The three-month cost basis near $3,415–$3,430 has already drawn profit-taking, and the more formidable wall sits at $3,500, a psychological and historical high. Analysts view a confirmed daily close above that level as the trigger for a measured move toward $3,800, derived from the summer’s ascending triangle pattern.

Support is equally well defined. The 50-day EMA near $3,360 has repeatedly acted as a pivot line, while stronger support waits at $3,300 and $3,200, with the 200-day EMA rising toward $3,200 to reinforce the floor. If gold slips below those levels, the bullish trend would weaken, but so far, every dip has attracted heavy buying.

Macro Data: Rate Cuts in Focus as Inflation Approaches

The macro backdrop is amplifying gold’s appeal. U.S. GDP for Q2 was revised upward to 3.3%, while the Fed’s preferred inflation gauge, core PCE, held steady at 2.5%. Fed funds futures now assign an 87% probability of a rate cut in September, supported by comments from New York Fed President John Williams, who argued for moving policy toward neutral. Lower rates reduce the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding assets, giving gold a tailwind.

Treasury yields have already begun to react. The 10-year yield slipped below 4.25%, its lowest in two weeks, further eroding the dollar’s relative appeal. As traders prepare for Friday’s PCE inflation print, a softer reading could ignite a breakout attempt above $3,440, while a hot print risks dragging bullion back into the mid-$3,300s.

Global Perspective: Gold in Other Currencies Hints at Strength

Gold’s rise is not limited to the U.S. dollar. In Europe, gold priced in euros touched €2,920, its highest in three weeks, while in the U.K. it surged to £2,525, both not far from record levels set earlier in the year during tariff turmoil. These moves confirm that the rally is broad-based, not just a reflection of U.S. dollar weakness.

Silver has also tracked higher, climbing above $39 per ounce, within 50 cents of a 14-year high. The gold-to-silver ratio now hovers near 87, indicating that silver’s industrial demand remains supportive even as investors continue to favor gold as the primary safe haven.

Goldman Sachs Sees $3,700 by Year-End

Looking beyond the summer, major institutions are now projecting higher prices. Goldman Sachs Research has issued a year-end 2025 target of $3,700 per ounce, citing sustained central bank accumulation and geopolitical uncertainty. From the January opening price of $2,633, this would mark a full-year gain of more than 40%.

Forecast: Gold Faces $3,500 Test With Bullish Momentum Intact

The current gold price forecast revolves around the $3,400 to $3,500 range. As long as gold holds above $3,360 support, the bias remains bullish with eyes firmly on a breakout. Clearing $3,500 would validate targets near $3,550 and $3,600, and potentially extend toward $3,800 if macro drivers align with technical momentum.

On the downside, dips toward $3,300 and $3,200 are likely to attract buyers, making it difficult to argue for a sustained bearish scenario unless global conditions shift dramatically. With central banks and ETFs steadily adding to holdings, structural demand continues to insulate gold from deeper declines.

At this stage, gold is best characterized as a buy on dips market. While resistance remains stubborn near $3,500, the combination of Fed uncertainty, falling yields, geopolitical risks, and persistent accumulation leaves the long-term trajectory pointed higher for XAU/USD.

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The EURJPY pair remains affected by the dominance of the sideways bias until this momentum, due to the continuation of the contradiction between stochastic negativity by its reach below 50 level and the stability within the main bullish levels, besides the stability of the moving average 55 near the support of the channel at 168.85.

Reminding you that the continuation of forming extra support at 170.45 level supports our bullish expectation by confirming its stability within the bullish track, therefore, we will keep waiting for gathering the positive momentum, to ease the mission of pressing on the barrier at 173.40, then begin targeting the main stations near 174.10 and 175.20.

The expected trading range for today is between 171.25 and 173.40

Trend forecast: Bullish

Copper price faced stochastic negativity by its stability above the extra support at $4.2600, keeping the chances for renewing the bullish attempts, while gathering the bullish momentum makes us expect targeting $4.6200, pressing on the barrier near $4.7500 to find an exit to resume the bullish attempts.

While the risk of changing the main trend is represented by forming a sharp decline, to settle below the support of the bullish channel towards $4.0750, which forces it to suffer several losses by reaching $3.9200 initially.

The expected trading range for today is between $4.3000 and $4.6200

Trend forecast: Bullish

Triangle Structure Points to Imminent Resolution

Gold has been consolidating within the triangle for weeks, reflecting a pause in trend before a decisive move. Given its proximity to the pattern’s apex, a breakout is likely within the next week or so. The expectation is for an eventual upside resolution, consistent with the longer-term bullish trend. However, traders should remain aware that short-term consolidations often occur near breakout points, which could delay a sustained advance.

Upside Targets Beyond the Breakout

Should an upside breakout occur, higher initial targets include the $3,500 record high, followed by $3,578. A decisive move through that zone could trigger renewed momentum and signal a continuation of gold’s multi-month bull run. The 20-Day moving average is trending higher beneath price, providing technical support for buyers as the market approaches this key resistance test.

Risks of a Failed Breakout

While the technical setup leans bullish, the potential for a failed breakout must be considered. A rejection at resistance or decline back into the triangle following a breakout, could weigh on sentiment. The key support levels to watch are the lower boundary of the pattern and the recent swing low at $3,311. Any close below those levels would weaken the bullish outlook and potentially delay new record high attempts.

Weekly Chart Supports the Bullish Case

A bullish weekly reversal has already been confirmed this week with the move above $3,379. If gold closes the week above that level, the reversal signal will stand on the higher timeframe. This would reinforce the probability of an upside-breakout from the triangle and strengthen the case for a longer-term continuation toward new highs.

For a look at all of today’s economic events, check out our economic calendar.

Key Resistance Tests Ahead

In addition to the 20-Day moving average, natural gas faces resistance at last week’s high of $2.92. A close above that level would trigger a one-week bullish reversal signal. If successful, the next obstacle lies at $2.97, an interim swing high that coincides with resistance identified by an anchored volume weighted average price (AVWAP). This AVWAP level was previously support until early August, suggesting a strong reaction could emerge on the first test as resistance.

Upside Targets and Moving Averages

The bullish wedge pattern projects upside targets at $3.15 and $3.19, depending on how the beginning of the wedge is measured. However, before those objectives can be reached, natural gas must push through lower resistance levels. The 50-Day moving average, now at $3.21 and trending lower, presents another hurdle. Since it failed as support in early-July, a first retest as resistance may prove difficult to overcome. Its potential convergence with a long-term uptrend line increases the significance of this potential barrier if price advances that far.

Shift in Momentum

The falling wedge represented a tight consolidation with waning bearish momentum. Sellers were unable to drive a deeper decline, and buyers ultimately gained control. While Wednesday’s breakout is only the first sign of a potential trend shift, it sets the stage for further upside attempts. Follow-through strength above $2.92 and $2.97 will be essential to confirm the breakout and establish a stronger bullish tone.

For a look at all of today’s economic events, check out our economic calendar.

XAU/USD Holds Above $3,380 as Safe-Haven Demand Confronts Dollar Strength

Gold (XAU/USD) opened the midweek session at $3,443 per ounce, briefly pushing higher before retracing to around $3,380. The shift followed a resilient U.S. dollar advance, which pressured commodities broadly. Despite this, gold remains elevated, holding close to its August peaks and still showing a staggering 36.9% yearly gain compared with $2,504 per ounce a year earlier. The consolidation is being read as a battle between dollar strength and political risk, with the Trump–Federal Reserve feud dominating headlines. The removal of Fed Governor Lisa Cook raised questions about central bank independence, amplifying safe-haven flows and keeping gold attractive above the $3,360–$3,394 range, where technical support remains firm.

Gold Price Performance Across Key Benchmarks

In futures trading, December contracts last traded at $3,424, down $9.00 intraday, while spot prices hovered just under $3,390. In Asia, local reference rates in the Philippines reflected the global softness: PHP 6,205.28 per gram, PHP 72,377 per tola, and PHP 193,005 per troy ounce, all slightly below Tuesday levels. Regionally adjusted gold pricing, tied to the USD/PHP cross, highlights how currency shifts amplify or cushion international trends. For example, while global XAU/USD eased, domestic buyers in peso terms still faced prices well above historical averages.

Technical Landscape for XAU/USD Signals Compression

Charts show a well-defined symmetrical triangle forming between $3,288 support and $3,440 resistance. Current trading near $3,380 places gold in the center of this consolidation. On the daily frame, the 50-day EMA at $3,373 continues to rise, providing dynamic support that has acted as a trendline for several months. Resistance levels are stacked at $3,394, $3,410, and $3,433, while downside markers sit at $3,344 and $3,314. Momentum readings remain constructive: RSI near 58 has room to climb before overbought conditions, while MACD is approaching a bullish crossover at zero. Traders warn the next decisive candle could determine whether gold extends toward $3,500–$3,800 or slides back to retest $3,288.

Fed Policy and Macro Drivers Define the Gold Price Forecast

The Federal Reserve remains the single most important catalyst for the gold market. Inflation in July stood at 2.7% year over year, above the Fed’s 2% target, yet Powell’s Jackson Hole comments signaled potential rate cuts as soon as September. Futures markets show an 87% probability of at least a 25-basis-point cut, up from 84% the prior day. Lower real yields historically act as a tailwind for non-interest-bearing assets like gold, aligning with analysts projecting higher prices into Q4. J.P. Morgan Research has set a year-end target of $3,675, with upside toward $4,000 by Q2 2026 if easing continues.

Central Banks and Geopolitical Risk Extend Tailwinds

Global central banks continue to stockpile bullion at record levels. Purchases surpassed 1,000 metric tons in 2024, and demand has remained strong in 2025 as institutions diversify away from the U.S. dollar. This institutional floor has been one of the clearest drivers of gold’s resilience above $3,300. On the geopolitical side, Trump’s tariffs on 55% of Indian exports to the U.S., particularly textiles and jewelry, ripple directly into gold-consuming industries. Meanwhile, tensions over Fed governance create further uncertainty, reinforcing the hedge appeal of gold. Analysts caution that a renewed global crisis could trigger rapid inflows, accelerating a breakout well above current consolidation ranges.

Investor Forecasts Split Between Bullish Breakout and Consolidation

Market strategists remain divided. Brett Elliott at APMEX described the trading pattern as sideways consolidation, with gold trapped between $3,180 and $3,440 since April and awaiting a catalyst. Chris Mancini of Gabelli suggested Fed easing could unlock the next surge, while Savvy Wealth’s Joshua Barone sees a bull case near $4,000 by year-end if real rates fall and geopolitical tensions persist. Conversely, a bear case points to $3,200 if inflation proves sticky, the dollar strengthens, and yields remain elevated. Historical trends reinforce caution: September and October have often delivered turbulence across markets, and gold could see volatility intensify into the fall.

Physical Gold, ETFs, and Mining Equities Respond Differently to Price Action

The structure of gold investment also reflects these shifts. Physical gold remains popular but is challenged by storage and liquidity, while SPDR Gold Shares (GLD) offers a direct ETF proxy at lower fees. Mining equities like Barrick Gold (GOLD) and Franco-Nevada (FNV) trade with higher volatility than bullion itself, often amplifying moves. December gold futures, trading at $3,424, highlight how leveraged exposure increases both risk and reward. Meanwhile, spot holdings continue to expand across Asia and Europe, underpinned by retail demand and central bank diversification.

Gold Price Forecast: Buy on Dips or Risk a Breakdown?

At present levels of $3,380–$3,390 per ounce, gold balances precariously. Technical compression suggests a breakout is imminent, with $3,500–$3,800 in play if bulls succeed. On the downside, a break of $3,344 support exposes $3,288, with further risk toward $3,200 under a strong-dollar environment. With inflation still elevated, Fed rate cuts priced in, and central bank accumulation ongoing, the medium-term trajectory favors strength. Yet traders must respect near-term fragility: the U.S. dollar’s resilience and political volatility remain immediate headwinds.

That’s TradingNEWS