Bearish Signs Stack Up

There are several short-term bearish signs in recent price action. The dip below the $3.42 higher swing low earlier today triggered a bearish reversal of the short-term uptrend. Yesterday’s low hit support at the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement and stopped, before closing the session there. That level was busted earlier today. Also, the light blue line on the chart shows price levels from the anchored volume weighted average price line (AVWAP). It had been acting as support since the recent swing low but that changed when Wednesday’s session closed below the line for the first time.

Resistance Holds at Neckline of Topping Pattern

Let’s consider the head and shoulder pattern that formed at the most recent top and the behavior of the price of natural gas since then. Following a drop below support at the neckline of the formation the price of natural gas will establish a counter-trend rally to test prior support levels as resistance. The neckline of the pattern is one significant area to consider.

The recent short-term trend high of $3.73 from Monday completed a successful test of resistance around the neckline. And the price area around the neckline was also marked by several other indicators, including a 61.8% Fibonacci retracement, the 50-Day MA, and an AVWAP line from the peak in March. Other than a quick rebound following the initial breakdown of the topping pattern, the recent advance was really the first bullish counter-trend rally. If that is the case, then the current decline could surprise to the downside.

Eyes on $3.23

If the 50% retracement fails to reverse the slide, the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement at $3.23 becomes the next lower target. Notice that the dark blue 200-Day MA is rising and heading towards the 61.8% level. Together, they could create something of a magnet for price. However, a sustained decline below the 50% retracement would happen first, and there is a risk of that now.

For a look at all of today’s economic events, check out our economic calendar.

XAU/USD Current price: $3,221.04

• Generally encouraging United States data limited USD weakness in a risk-averse environment.
• Wall Street trades mixed, with optimism about the end of a global trade war fading.
• XAU/USD aims north, but the bullish potential is limited in the near term.

Spot Gold is in a better shape in the American session on Thursday, rising beyond the $3,200 mark after falling to a five-week low of $3,120.83 during London trading hours. Fading optimism about a potential United States (US)- China trade deal brought demand for safety back to the table.

Concerns arose on news coming from Japan early in Asia, indicating the US is considering revising its trade agreement with Japan. Market talks suggest the US is asking for additional concessions on agriculture and livestock products, something Japan is unwilling to grant, risking a deadlock in negotiations.

On a positive note, encouraging US data limited the US Dollar (USD) decline. The country unveiled the April Producer Price Index (PPI), which fell by 0.5% in the month, while the annual figure came in at 2.4%, both below expectations and March levels. Also, Initial Jobless Claims for the week ended May 10 matched expectations, up by 229K.  Retail Sales were up 0.1% in April, slightly better than the 0% anticipated by market participants.  

On a negative note, Capacity Utilisation stood at 77.7% in April, slightly below the expected and previous 77.8%, while Industrial Production in the same month stayed pat vs a 0.2% advance anticipated by market players.

Meanwhile, US indexes trade mixed, with the Nasdaq Composite struggling to overcome its daily opening, the Dow Jones Industrial Average trimming part of its recent losses and the S&P 500 extending its recent advance.

Friday will bring little of relevance, with the focus on the preliminary estimate of the US Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index for May.

XAU/USD short-term technical outlook

Technically, the daily chart shows that XAU/USD trades in the green, yet also that it posted a lower low and a lower high. At the same time, the 20 Simple Moving Average (SMA) turns modestly lower around the $3,305 level, while the 100 and 200 SMAs maintain their upward slopes far below the current level. Finally, technical indicators aim higher, but remain below their previous intraday highs and within negative levels, suggesting buying is still tepid.

The near-term picture shows buyers are piling up, but still lack full conviction. The pair is currently pressuring from below a flat 20 SMA, while the longer moving averages are pretty much flat above the shorter one. Technical indicators, in the meantime, head firmly north, yet remain within negative levels.

Support levels: 3,198.30 3,173.80 3,158.40  

Resistance levels: 3,215.80 3,232.10 3,245.70

• Silver prices climb after testing support near $31.90.
• Price action remains range-bound with key levels in focus.
• The potential harami candle on the weekly chart highlights market indecision and softening bearish momentum.

Silver prices are recovering from earlier lows, supported by renewed demand at technical support levels. 

At the time of writing, XAG/USD is up 0.90% on the day, trading near $32.53, after briefly dipping below the 100-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) at $31.90.

The advance reflects increased buying interest, although the broader market remains consolidative. Investors continue to weigh mixed United States (US) economic data and evolving expectations around Federal Reserve (Fed) policy, leaving Silver confined within a well-defined trading range.

Silver bounces off support as buyers regain control

On the daily chart, the current candlestick features a small real body near the top of a long lower wick — a classic sign of intraday bearish pressure that was ultimately rejected. 

Buyers stepped in at the 100-day SMA, pushing prices back toward the session’s opening level. While this does not confirm a bullish reversal, it highlights strong demand at lower levels. The candle represents a defensive stance by buyers rather than a clear trend change. However, with the trading day still in progress, a confirmed close is needed to validate the move.

Silver remains constrained between the 100-day SMA at $31.90 and the 50-day SMA at $32.76, with additional resistance at the psychological $33.00 level. Immediate support aligns with the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement of the March–April rally, near the $32.00 mark. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) on the daily chart stands at 47.68, indicating a neutral momentum profile.

Silver (XAG/USD) daily chart

Weekly chart highlights potential shift in momentum

On the weekly timeframe, Silver appears to be forming a bullish harami pattern — a smaller bullish candle developing within the body of last week’s larger bearish candle. This configuration often signals a potential loss of bearish momentum, particularly when it occurs near established support levels. In this case, Silver is holding above the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement of the 2024 advance, located at $31.81.

Silver (XAG/USD) weekly chart

The 10-week and 50-week SMAs, positioned at $32.57 and $30.95, respectively, are gradually converging, indicating a tightening technical structure. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) on the weekly chart is at 52.75, reflecting a mildly bullish bias but no strong momentum either way. A sustained breakout above $33.69 or a confirmed close below $31.80 would likely determine the next directional move for Silver.

Gold Stabilizes as Dollar Softens and Trendline Support Holds

Spot gold steadied after hitting its lowest level since April 10, supported by technical buying and a weaker U.S. dollar. The metal bounced near long-standing trendline support around $3,130, in place since the start of 2025. The dollar index (.DXY) slipped 0.3% to 100.81, making gold more attractive for holders of other currencies. However, despite Thursday’s dip, the index is on track for a modest weekly gain, though it remains down nearly 7% in 2025.

Investor Focus Turns to US Inflation and Retail Data

Markets are awaiting several key U.S. economic reports, including the producer price index, retail sales, and weekly jobless claims. These could influence rate expectations heading into the second half of 2025. Tuesday’s CPI data came in softer than expected, with core inflation rising only 0.2% in April. Fed Chair Jerome Powell is also scheduled to speak later Thursday, and traders will be parsing his comments for any hints on the Fed’s policy stance. Markets are still pricing in 50 basis points of cuts by year-end, likely starting in October.

US-China Trade Truce Dampens Safe-Haven Demand

Gold’s appeal as a safe haven has eased somewhat after the U.S. and China agreed to pause most tariffs for 90 days. While this de-escalated trade tensions, it also reduced immediate hedging demand for bullion. The drop in safe-haven flows, combined with higher Treasury yields earlier in the week, pressured gold lower before Thursday’s stabilization.

Gold Price Projections

• Silver price gains temporary ground below $32.00 ahead of Fed Powell’s speech.
• Signs of improving US-China trade relations have dampened the appeal of safe-haven assets.
• China has rolled back non-tariff measures on 45 US entities temporarily.

Silver price (XAG/USD) bounces back to near $32.00 during European trading hours on Thursday after sliding to near the monthly low around $31.65 earlier in the day. The outlook of the Silver price remains bearish as trade relations between the United States (US) and China have improved further.

During European trading hours, US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent signaled more talks with China to avoid trade tensions. “We are going into a series of negotiations with China to prevent escalation again,” Bessent said.

Meanwhile, Beijing also appears to be making efforts to improve relations with the US. On Wednesday, the Chinese Commerce Ministry suspended non-tariff measures taken against 45 US entities in the wake of an agreement between Washington and Beijing for a 90-day pause in the trade war in which they lowered tariffs by 115%.

Waning US-China trade tensions have forced investors to reassess the global economic outlook. Theoretically, an improvement in the global economy reduces demand for safe-haven assets, such as Silver.

Meanwhile, investors await Federal Reserve (Fed) Chair Jerome Powell’s speech, which is scheduled in the North American session. Investors would look cues for any change in the Fed’s stance towards the monetary policy outlook after the temporary US-China trade truce and soft US Consumer Price Index (CPI) data for April.

The Silver price could face more pressure if Fed Powell guides that interest rates should remain where they are in the face of economic uncertainty due to new economic policies by US President Donald Trump. Fed’s higher for longer interest rates bode poorly for non-yielding assets, such as Silver.

Silver technical analysis

Silver price trades in a Descending Triangle formation on a four-hour timeframe. The chart pattern reflects indecisiveness among market participants. The near-term trend of the white metal is bearish as it trades below the 20-period Exponential Moving Average (EMA), which is around $32.70.

The 14-period Relative Strength Index (RSI) wobbles around 40.00. A fresh bearish momentum would trigger if the RSI falls below the 40.00 level.

Looking up, the March 28 high of $34.60 will act as key resistance for the metal. On the downside, the April 11 low of $30.90 will be the key support zone.

Silver four-hour chart

The EURJPY pair is affected by the negative pressures, due to its repeated stability below the resistance at 164.90, forming several bearish waves, approaching from the initial support at 163.35 level.

The suggested scenario depends on the stability of the current support, to expect activating the bullish track, which might target 164.20 and 164.90 level gradually, while breaking the support and holding below it will increase the chances for resuming the decline, and 162.40 level represents the next target of the bearish track.

The expected trading range for today is between 163.30 and 164.90

Trend forecast: Bullish

Copper price confirmed the continuation of the bearish scenario by providing a new negative close yesterday below $4.6600, which represents an extra barrier to its stability near 50% Fibonacci correction level.

Note that gathering the negative momentum in the current period is important to ease the mission of pressing on the barrier at $4.5000 level, and breaking it will open the way towards targeting negative stations, which might extend to $4.4500 and $4.3100.

The expected trading range for today is between $4.4500 and $4.6600

Trend forecast: Bearish

• Gold price remains vulnerable near monthly lows below $3,200 early Thursday.
• The US Dollar snaps the overnight rebound ahead of key US data and Powell’s speech.
• Will Gold price defend the 50-day SMA at $3,155 as RSI stays bearish?

Gold price is looking to extend the previous day’s over 2% sell-off early Thursday. The yellow metal remains vulnerable near monthly lows, trading below $3,200, as it awaits the high-impact US Producer Price Index (PPI) and Retail Sales data ahead of Federal Reserve (Fed) Chair Jerome Powell’s speech.  

Gold price at the mercy of US data and geopolitics

A negative shift in risk sentiment in Asian trades on Thursday seems to be exerting renewed downward pressure on the US Dollar (USD), helping Gold price pause its decline at the moment.

Traders are turning cautious and refraining from placing directional bets on the Greenback and Gold price before the release of the US PPI inflation and Retail Sales data, which could significantly impact the markets’ expectations of future interest rate cuts by the Fed.

Retail volumes could see a big boost from frontloading to get ahead of US tariffs impact, while the US PPI inflation is set to decline to 2.5% over the year in April. Markets are pricing in about 53 basis points (bps) of Fed rate cut this year, with a probability of a 25 bps rate reduction in September standing at about 50%, according to the CME Group’s Fed Watch Tool.

The increased odds of fewer Fed rate cuts continue to act as a headwind to the non-yielding Gold price, even though the US Consumer Price Index (CPI) cooled slightly in April. Annually, US CPI rose 2.3% in the same period, compared to a forecast of 2.4%.

Gold price also bears the brunt of receding US recession fears, courtesy of the trade truce between the world’s two largest economies – the US and China. Furthermore, optimism over US-South Korea trade talks and expectations of a US-Iran nuclear deal keep the traditional safe-haven Gold price under pressure.

However, it remains to be seen if the Gold price continues its descent, as risk sentiment could deteriorate further if the upcoming Ukraine-Russia peace talks turn sour. Weaker-than-expected US PPI and Retail Sales data could rekindle dovish Fed expectations and provide the much-needed support to Gold price.

Additionally, Gold price could draw support from rising tensions over the US deficit after Treasury reported a $1.049 trillion budget deficit for the first seven months of fiscal 2025, which started October 1, up 23%, or $194 billion, from a year earlier. 

Gold price technical analysis: Daily chart

Technically, Gold price remains exposed to further downside risks so long as the price stays below the 21-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) at $3,308.

Currently, the yellow metal is challenging the key 50-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) at $3,155.

The 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) is currently holding below the midline, near 44, indicating more downside potential.

However, if buyers manage to defend the 50-day SMA at $3,155, a rebound toward the 21-day SMA at $3,308 cannot be ruled out.  

Further up, the falling trendline resistance at $3,419 will come into play.  

A sustained break below the 50-day SMA support could trigger a fresh downtrend toward the 100-day SMA at $2,972

Ahead of that, the $3,100 round level and the April 10 low of $3,072 would be tested.

• Gold price recovers some lost ground to around $3,180 in Thursday’s early Asian session. 
• Easing tensions in the global trade war undermines the Gold price. 
• US April Retail Sales and PPI reports will be in the spotlight later on Thursday. 

The Gold price (XAU/USD) trades with mild gains near $3,180 during the early Asian session on Thursday. However, the potential upside for the yellow metal might be capped in the near term due to better risk appetite and progress in trade talks. 

The precious metal remains on the defensive as tension eases in the global trade war, pushing investors away from safe-haven demand. The US and China agreed to reduce tariffs on each other after two days of negotiations in Geneva, Switzerland. The US lowered tariffs on Chinese imports to 30% from 145%, while China cut tariffs on US imports to 10% from 125%.

“Overall it’s an improved risk sentiment that for now has reduced gold’s appeal,” said Ole Hansen, head of commodities strategy at Saxo Bank A/S.

A top adviser to Iran’s supreme leader, Ali Shamkhani, said late Wednesday that Iran is ready to sign a nuclear deal with certain conditions with US President Donald Trump in exchange for lifting economic sanctions. These positive developments contribute to the Gold’s downside. 

However, trade uncertainties and escalating geopolitical risks could help limit the Gold’s losses. Traders will keep an eye on the release of the US Retail Sales and Producer Price Index (PPI) for April later on Thursday. Also, the Federal Reserve (Fed) Chair Jerome Powell is set to speak. 

• XAG/USD pressured by higher US Treasury yields and growing belief Fed will hold rates steady.
• Price consolidates between $32.00 support and $32.73 resistance; momentum favors bears with RSI tilting lower.
• Break below 100-day SMA at $31.91 opens path to $31.30 and $31.00; upside capped by $33.00 and $33.68.

Silver price fell 2% on Wednesday amid elevated US Treasury bond yields as investors seemed confident that the US Federal Reserve would not reduce interest rates. At the time of writing, the XAG/USD trades at $32.20, unchanged as the Asian session begins.

XAG/USD Price Forecast: Technical outlook

Silver price is set to consolidate within the $32.00 – $33.00 range, capped on the upside by the 50-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) at $32.73 and on the downside by the 100-day SMA at $31.91.

From a momentum standpoint, sellers are in charge, as the Relative Strength Index (RSI) portrays. However, price action dictates that bears must clear the $32.00 mark, followed by the 100-day SMA to aim for lower prices. In that outcome, XAG/USD’s next support would be the 200-day SMA at $31.30. A breach of the latter will expose the $31.00 figure, followed by the latest cycle low seen at $28.33, the April 7 low.

Conversely, if XAG/USD clears the 50-day SMA, the grey metal would be poised to test $33.00. Once surpassed, the next stop would be the April 24 swing high at $33.68 ahead of the $34.00 figure.

XAG/USD Price Chart – Daily