XAU/USD Current price: $3,187.31

• Risk appetite eased, but investors keep dropping safe-haven assets.
• Thursday will bring some interesting macroeconomic figures from major economies.
• XAU/USD trades at fresh one-month lows, aiming to extend its near-term slide.

Gold prices are down on Wednesday with the bright metal trading at its lowest since mid-April. The XAU/USD pair accelerated its slide during American trading hours, piercing the $3,200 mark, as investors keep moving away from safe-haven assets. Despite risk appetite receding on Wednesday, investors are less concerned about global growth and a potential United States (US) recession, given the de-escalation of trade tensions between the US and China.

Meanwhile, speculative interest kept digesting US inflation data. The slight uptick in the Consumer Price Index (CPI) in April reminded investors of the “hawkish” Federal Reserve’s stance. As a result, Wall Street trades mixed, with the Nasdaq Composite and the S&P 500 posting modest intraday advances and the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) down for a second consecutive day.

Data-wise, the macroeconomic calendar remained scarce, but Thursday will bring Australian monthly employment figures, an update on the United Kingdom (UK) Gross Domestic Product, and the US April Producer Price Index (PPI).

XAU/USD short-term technical outlook

From a technical point of view, the daily chart for the XAU/USD pair shows it fell further below a now flat 20 Simple Moving Average (SMA), while technical indicators resumed their slides within negative levels, in line with another leg lower. The 100 and 200 SMAS keep advancing, yet are too far below the current level to be relevant.

In the near term, and according to the 4-hour chart, XAU/USD is bearish. The pair trades below all its moving averages, with the 20 SMA about to cross below the 200 SMA. The latter stands at $3,232, providing relevant resistance in the case of a recovery. Finally, technical indicators lack directional strength but hold within negative levels, reflecting the absence of buying interest.

Support levels: 3,173.80 3,158.40 3,142.65

Resistance levels: 3,198.20 3,215.80 3,232.10

• Silver price plunges to near $32.15 as 90-day US-China trade truce dampens the demand for safe-haven assets.
• Both the US and China agreed to lower tariffs by 115%.
• Investors await Fed Powell’s speech for fresh monetary policy guidance.

Silver price (XAG/USD) is down over 1% to near $32.15 during North American trading hours on Wednesday. The white metal faces a sharp selling pressure as demand for safe-haven assets has fizzled out, with the United States (US) and China aiming to avert a more than a month-long trade war.

On Monday, Washington and Beijing agreed to lower import duties by 115% for 90 days, which reduced tariffs on them to 10% and 30%, respectively, after a two-day meeting in Switzerland. US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent stated on Tuesday that Washington doesn’t intend to decouple with China but wants to bring medicine, semiconductor, and other strategic industries home.

The white metal outperformed when the world’s two largest powerhouses entered a trade war after Beijing announced counter-tariffs against reciprocal tariffs imposed by US President Donald Trump in April.

Additionally, easing inflationary pressures have also diminished the demand for Silver. The US Consumer Price Index (CPI) data showed on Tuesday that the headline inflation fell to 2.3%, the lowest level seen in over four years.

Going forward, the next trigger for the Silver price will be the Federal Reserve (Fed) Chair Jerome Powell’s speech on Thursday. Investors would like to know whether Powell has turned dovish on the interest rate outlook after soft inflation data and a temporary US-China trade truce.

Silver technical analysis

Silver price trades in a Symmetrical Triangle formation on a four-hour timeframe. The chart pattern reflects indecisiveness among market participants. The near-term trend of the white metal is bearish as it trades below the 20-period Exponential Moving Average (EMA), which is around $32.70.

The 14-period Relative Strength Index (RSI) oscillates inside the 40.00-60.00 range, indicating a sharp volatility contraction.

Looking up, the March 28 high of $34.60 will act as key resistance for the metal. On the downside, the April 11 low of $30.90 will be the key support zone.

Silver four-hour chart

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• Gold trades below key $3,200 support as bearish pressure builds after recent highs.
• XAU/USD consolidates within a bullish pennant, signaling potential trend continuation if support holds.
• A surge in momentum below $3,200 may trigger a deeper retracement toward key Fibonacci levels.

Gold prices remain under pressure as investors reassess the interest rate outlook and digest mixed signals from recent US economic data. At the time of writing, XAU/USD is down 2.23% on the day, trading below $3,200, extending a week-to-date decline of 4.26%. 

The pullback reflects uncertainty surrounding the Federal Reserve’s (Fed) policy stance, as softer inflation data clash with firm labor market conditions. This macro backdrop has kept Gold range-bound just below its all-time high, with traders looking for fresh direction.

Gold bears test bullish pennant support

On the daily chart, Gold has formed a bullish pennant, a continuation pattern that typically signals a potential resumption of the prevailing uptrend. The April surge forms the flagpole, while current price action is consolidating within converging trendlines, indicating tightening market conditions and indecision among market participants.

However, the integrity of the pattern is now under pressure. Price has slipped below the 20-day Simple Moving Average (SMA), currently at $3,316.20, reflecting short-term weakness. Additionally, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) has declined to 47.13, pointing to neutral-to-bearish momentum. These developments suggest that the bullish setup may be faltering.

The immediate focus is on the horizontal support at $3,200, which marks the lower boundary of the pennant. With prices currently below this level, a confirmed break would invalidate the pattern and likely trigger a deeper correction. Conversely, a move above $3,300, particularly if it clears the descending trendline resistance, would reaffirm the bullish bias and potentially open the path to new highs.

Gold (XAU/USD) daily chart

Gold slips below $3,200 as bullish momentum fades

From a broader perspective, the weekly chart shows that Gold remains in a consolidation phase following its ascent to a record high of $3,500 in April. This advance was underpinned by safe-haven demand and market expectations of future interest rate cuts. However, the rally was quickly met with profit-taking, evidenced by a long upper shadow on the weekly candle — a signal of rejection and growing resistance.

Since that peak, Gold has traded within a narrow horizontal band between $3,200 and $3,300, representing a pause in the uptrend rather than a full reversal. The long-term bullish structure remains intact, supported by an ascending trendline originating from the January low. Importantly, price is still holding above the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement level at $3,291, drawn from the January low to the April high.

Gold (XAU/USD) weekly chart

While the broader trend favors the bulls, the near-term outlook hinges on how price behaves within the pivotal $3,200–$3,300 range.

A decisive breakout above $3,300, especially if accompanied by rising momentum and a break of descending trendline resistance, would confirm the continuation of the broader uptrend. In this scenario, Gold could retest the $3,450–$3,500 area.

A confirmed breakdown below $3,200 would invalidate the pennant structure and expose Gold to deeper retracements, with support levels at $3,161 (38.2% Fibonacci) and $3,057 (50.0%) offering potential downside targets.

Until a breakout occurs, Gold is likely to remain range-bound, with short-term direction dictated by incoming macroeconomic data and Fed policy signals.

This shift has lowered demand for traditional safe-haven assets like gold, which had surged amid global trade frictions earlier in 2025.

“The market is digesting a combination of dovish inflation data and geopolitical calm, which typically erodes the defensive premium embedded in gold,” said a commodities strategist at KCM Trade.

Fed Rate Outlook and Dollar Weakness Provide Support

Despite the downward drift, gold prices are finding some footing amid growing expectations of Federal Reserve rate cuts. The U.S. Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose 2.3% year-on-year in April, slightly below forecasts, while core CPI ticked up 2.8%.

With inflation softening, traders are now pricing in two rate cuts by year-end, starting as early as September.

A weaker U.S. dollar, which generally supports dollar-denominated commodities, has helped cushion gold’s losses. The Dollar Index (DXY) slipped below 101.60 on Tuesday, reflecting reduced expectations of aggressive tightening by the Fed.

Short-Term Forecast

Gold and silver remain range-bound short term, with key breakouts hinging on Fed signals and technical pivots.

Natural gas prices need positive momentum, which forces them to form weak trading by its continuous fluctuation near the initial support at $3.600, to face the moving average 55 as appears in the above image.

Gathering the positive momentum is important to decrease the chances for activating the bearish correctional track, depending on forming extra support at $3.440 level, to begin forming bullish waves, to press on the barrier at $3.780 level to find an exit for recording new gains in the upcoming period.

The expected trading range for today is between $3.550 and $3.780

Trend forecast: Bullish

Platinum price forced to provide slow sideways trading, due to the continuation of the main indicators’ contradiction, to keep its fluctuation near the $991.00 level, while the continuation of forming sold barrier at $1005.00 level will increase the chances for activating the negative track, to attack the moving average 55 at $965.00, then press on the support at $950.00.

While regaining the bullish bias requires forming a strong bullish rally, to surpass 61.8% Fibonacci correction level at to confirm its readiness to record new gains that begin at $1027.00, to confirm its readiness to record new gains that begin at $ 1027.00 and $1040.00.

The expected trading range for today is between $965.00 and $ 1000.00

Trend forecast: Bearish

Platinum price forced to provide slow sideways trading, due to the continuation of the main indicators’ contradiction, to keep its fluctuation near the $991.00 level, while the continuation of forming sold barrier at $1005.00 level will increase the chances for activating the negative track, to attack the moving average 55 at $965.00, then press on the support at $950.00.

While regaining the bullish bias requires forming a strong bullish rally, to surpass 61.8% Fibonacci correction level at to confirm its readiness to record new gains that begin at $1027.00, to confirm its readiness to record new gains that begin at $ 1027.00 and $1040.00.

The expected trading range for today is between $965.00 and $ 1000.00

Trend forecast: Bearish

Platinum price forced to provide slow sideways trading, due to the continuation of the main indicators’ contradiction, to keep its fluctuation near the $991.00 level, while the continuation of forming sold barrier at $1005.00 level will increase the chances for activating the negative track, to attack the moving average 55 at $965.00, then press on the support at $950.00.

While regaining the bullish bias requires forming a strong bullish rally, to surpass 61.8% Fibonacci correction level at to confirm its readiness to record new gains that begin at $1027.00, to confirm its readiness to record new gains that begin at $ 1027.00 and $1040.00.

The expected trading range for today is between $965.00 and $ 1000.00

Trend forecast: Bearish

• Gold price edges lower to $3,245 in Wednesday’s early Asian session. 
• Improved risk appetite after the US and China slash tariff rates weighs on the Gold price. 
• Escalating tensions and uncertainty might help limit the Gold’s losses. 

The Gold price (XAU/USD) trades in negative territory around $3,245 during the early Asian session on Wednesday. Improved risk appetite in the financial markets due to a tariff deal between the United States (US) and China weighs on the yellow metal, a safe-haven asset. Traders will focus on the Fedspeak later on Wednesday. 

The US and China, the world’s two largest economies, agreed to reduce tariffs on each other after two days of negotiations in Geneva, Switzerland. The US lowered tariffs on Chinese imports to 30% from 145%, while China cut tariffs on US imports to 10% from 125%. These positive developments boost market sentiment and undermine the precious metal. 

Additionally, easing tensions between India and Pakistan also weighed on the Gold price. The ceasefire remained intact in Jammu and Kashmir and across border towns overnight, following India’s Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s stern message to terrorists and Pakistan. Modi said on Monday that India will not tolerate any “nuclear blackmail.” He added that operations against Pakistan have only been paused, and the future will depend on their behavior.

“Gold and silver showed a heavy selloff at the start of the new week amid a trade deal between the US and China in Switzerland. The dollar index and the US bond yields jumped after the announcement of trade deals. The Indo-Pak ceasefire over the weekend also eases safe-haven buying for precious metals,” Manoj Kumar Jain of Prithvifinmart Commodity Research observed.

Nonetheless, any signs of escalation between India and Pakistan, along with the economic uncertainty triggered by US President Donald Trump’s tariff policies, could boost the safe-haven flows, benefiting the Gold price.

• Silver holds near $33.00, supported by soft Dollar and improved risk appetite.
• RSI flattens despite bullish tone, suggesting near-term indecision and possible consolidation.
• Break above $33.25 targets $33.68 and $34.00; drop below $32.75 may expose $31.89 and $31.28.

Silver price edged up 0.95% on Tuesday as the Greenback finished the session below the 101.00 figure, according to the US Dollar Index (DXY), which tracks the performance of the buck’s value against a basket of six currencies. At the time of writing, as the Asian session begins, XAG/USD trades at $32.92, registering modest gains near the $33.00 figure.

XAG/USD Price Forecast: Technical outlook

The Silver technical outlook suggests that further consolidation lies ahead, with stir resistance found at the psychological $33.00 figure. However, momentum indicators like the Relative Strength Index (RSI), despite remaining bullish, turned flattish as indecision sinks on traders.

For a bullish resumption, buyers need to reclaim $33.00 and clear the latest swing high reached on May 7 at $33.25. Once surpassed, $33.50 emerges as next resistance, followed by the April 28 high of $33.68. A breach of the latter will expose $34.00.

Conversely, if XAG/USD drifts below the 50-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) of $32.75, a move towards the 100-day SMA at $31.89 is likely. On further weakness, the bulls’ following line of defense would be the 200-day SMA at $31.28.

XAG/USD Price Chart – Daily