XAU/USD Holds Above $3,380 as Safe-Haven Demand Confronts Dollar Strength

Gold (XAU/USD) opened the midweek session at $3,443 per ounce, briefly pushing higher before retracing to around $3,380. The shift followed a resilient U.S. dollar advance, which pressured commodities broadly. Despite this, gold remains elevated, holding close to its August peaks and still showing a staggering 36.9% yearly gain compared with $2,504 per ounce a year earlier. The consolidation is being read as a battle between dollar strength and political risk, with the Trump–Federal Reserve feud dominating headlines. The removal of Fed Governor Lisa Cook raised questions about central bank independence, amplifying safe-haven flows and keeping gold attractive above the $3,360–$3,394 range, where technical support remains firm.

Gold Price Performance Across Key Benchmarks

In futures trading, December contracts last traded at $3,424, down $9.00 intraday, while spot prices hovered just under $3,390. In Asia, local reference rates in the Philippines reflected the global softness: PHP 6,205.28 per gram, PHP 72,377 per tola, and PHP 193,005 per troy ounce, all slightly below Tuesday levels. Regionally adjusted gold pricing, tied to the USD/PHP cross, highlights how currency shifts amplify or cushion international trends. For example, while global XAU/USD eased, domestic buyers in peso terms still faced prices well above historical averages.

Technical Landscape for XAU/USD Signals Compression

Charts show a well-defined symmetrical triangle forming between $3,288 support and $3,440 resistance. Current trading near $3,380 places gold in the center of this consolidation. On the daily frame, the 50-day EMA at $3,373 continues to rise, providing dynamic support that has acted as a trendline for several months. Resistance levels are stacked at $3,394, $3,410, and $3,433, while downside markers sit at $3,344 and $3,314. Momentum readings remain constructive: RSI near 58 has room to climb before overbought conditions, while MACD is approaching a bullish crossover at zero. Traders warn the next decisive candle could determine whether gold extends toward $3,500–$3,800 or slides back to retest $3,288.

Fed Policy and Macro Drivers Define the Gold Price Forecast

The Federal Reserve remains the single most important catalyst for the gold market. Inflation in July stood at 2.7% year over year, above the Fed’s 2% target, yet Powell’s Jackson Hole comments signaled potential rate cuts as soon as September. Futures markets show an 87% probability of at least a 25-basis-point cut, up from 84% the prior day. Lower real yields historically act as a tailwind for non-interest-bearing assets like gold, aligning with analysts projecting higher prices into Q4. J.P. Morgan Research has set a year-end target of $3,675, with upside toward $4,000 by Q2 2026 if easing continues.

Central Banks and Geopolitical Risk Extend Tailwinds

Global central banks continue to stockpile bullion at record levels. Purchases surpassed 1,000 metric tons in 2024, and demand has remained strong in 2025 as institutions diversify away from the U.S. dollar. This institutional floor has been one of the clearest drivers of gold’s resilience above $3,300. On the geopolitical side, Trump’s tariffs on 55% of Indian exports to the U.S., particularly textiles and jewelry, ripple directly into gold-consuming industries. Meanwhile, tensions over Fed governance create further uncertainty, reinforcing the hedge appeal of gold. Analysts caution that a renewed global crisis could trigger rapid inflows, accelerating a breakout well above current consolidation ranges.

Investor Forecasts Split Between Bullish Breakout and Consolidation

Market strategists remain divided. Brett Elliott at APMEX described the trading pattern as sideways consolidation, with gold trapped between $3,180 and $3,440 since April and awaiting a catalyst. Chris Mancini of Gabelli suggested Fed easing could unlock the next surge, while Savvy Wealth’s Joshua Barone sees a bull case near $4,000 by year-end if real rates fall and geopolitical tensions persist. Conversely, a bear case points to $3,200 if inflation proves sticky, the dollar strengthens, and yields remain elevated. Historical trends reinforce caution: September and October have often delivered turbulence across markets, and gold could see volatility intensify into the fall.

Physical Gold, ETFs, and Mining Equities Respond Differently to Price Action

The structure of gold investment also reflects these shifts. Physical gold remains popular but is challenged by storage and liquidity, while SPDR Gold Shares (GLD) offers a direct ETF proxy at lower fees. Mining equities like Barrick Gold (GOLD) and Franco-Nevada (FNV) trade with higher volatility than bullion itself, often amplifying moves. December gold futures, trading at $3,424, highlight how leveraged exposure increases both risk and reward. Meanwhile, spot holdings continue to expand across Asia and Europe, underpinned by retail demand and central bank diversification.

Gold Price Forecast: Buy on Dips or Risk a Breakdown?

At present levels of $3,380–$3,390 per ounce, gold balances precariously. Technical compression suggests a breakout is imminent, with $3,500–$3,800 in play if bulls succeed. On the downside, a break of $3,344 support exposes $3,288, with further risk toward $3,200 under a strong-dollar environment. With inflation still elevated, Fed rate cuts priced in, and central bank accumulation ongoing, the medium-term trajectory favors strength. Yet traders must respect near-term fragility: the U.S. dollar’s resilience and political volatility remain immediate headwinds.

That’s TradingNEWS

The EURJPY pair remains affected by the dominance of the sideways bias until this momentum, due to the continuation of the contradiction between stochastic negativity by its reach below 50 level and the stability within the main bullish levels, besides the stability of the moving average 55 near the support of the channel at 168.85.

Reminding you that the continuation of forming extra support at 170.45 level supports our bullish expectation by confirming its stability within the bullish track, therefore, we will keep waiting for gathering the positive momentum, to ease the mission of pressing on the barrier at 173.40, then begin targeting the main stations near 174.10 and 175.20.

The expected trading range for today is between 171.25 and 173.40

Trend forecast: Bullish

Platinum price surprised by a new obstacle at $1355.00, decelerating the chances of resuming the bullish attempts, which force it to form sideways fluctuation near $1345.00 level, by the above image we notice forming an important extra support at $1326.00 to reinforce the dominance of the bullish bias, increasing the chances for gathering the positive momentum in the current period.

Therefore, we will keep our bullish scenario depending on the stability of the extra support, to wait for breaching the extra barrier to open the way for achieving more of the gains by its rally towards $1383.00 reaching $1408.00.

The expected trading range for today is between $1335.00 and $1383.00

Trend forecast: Bullish

Falling Wedge and Key Resistance Levels

The current decline is unfolding within a falling wedge consolidation pattern, with the upper boundary aligning near the 10-Day moving average, now at $2.79. Just above that, potential resistance converges at the most recent interim swing high of $2.85 and the April swing low of $2.86. Together, they define a key resistance zone. A sustained rally above $2.86 would be required to signal that the bulls might be regaining control and the wedge breakout is showing signs of success. Until then, the path of least resistance remains lower.

Potential Downside Targets

If the bearish structure extends, the next potential support zone sits between $2.54 and $2.51. This area includes a 78.6% Fibonacci retracement at $2.54, along with a long-term trendline drawn from the 2023 peak. How effective that support becomes will depend on the timing and strength of any test.

Bullish Wedge Reversal Scenario

Despite the bearish bias, the wedge pattern leaves room for a bullish reversal. If a confirmed breakout occurs, the standard target points back to the origin of the wedge around $3.15 to $3.19. Until that happens, the 10-Day moving average should be monitored closely as it has consistently acted as dynamic resistance since the decline that began on August 11.

For a look at all of today’s economic events, check out our economic calendar.

The (Brent) price declined on its last intraday levels, amid the emergence of the negative signals on the (RSI), after reaching overbought levels, attempting to offload this overbought condition, gaining bullish momentum that might assist it to recover and rise again, amid the dominance of the bullish correctional trend on the short-term basis, with the continuation of the positive pressure that comes from its trading above EMA50, besides the price affection by positive technical formation on the short-term basis, which is represented by the double bottom pattern.

VIP Trading Signals Performance by BestTradingSignal.com (August 18–22, 2025)

BestTradingSignal.com – Professional Trading Signals with high accuracy. Subscribe now to tailored packages for the world’s leading markets and receive signals instantly via Telegram from an expert team:

Check full VIP signals performance report for the week of August 18–22, 2025: Full Report

Gold Price Analysis: XAU/USD Holds $3,400 Amid Fed Upheaval, Central Bank Buying, and Market Volatility

XAU/USD Pushes Higher After Powell’s Jackson Hole Signal

Gold (XAU/USD $3,410.80, +1.1%) opened Tuesday above the $3,400 threshold, extending a rebound triggered by Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s Jackson Hole speech. Powell emphasized that tariffs’ inflationary impact was likely temporary and hinted at a September rate cut, sending Treasury yields lower and the dollar weaker. The move gave bullion a $50 surge to $3,380 late Friday and follow-through buying pushed it to Tuesday’s open at $3,410.80 per ounce, not far from the April 22 all-time high of $3,485.60. In euro terms, the rally was less pronounced, underscoring that the U.S. dollar’s weakness was the primary driver.

Political Interference at the Fed Fuels Gold Demand

The removal of Fed Governor Lisa Cook by President Donald Trump jolted markets and deepened concerns over central bank independence. Such political moves suggest lower-for-longer rates, which historically bolster gold. Gold has already risen 35.9% year-over-year, from $2,509.90 in August 2024 to $3,410.80 today. The perception that the Fed is under pressure to ease aggressively raises the likelihood of further safe-haven flows into bullion. Traders are eyeing the core PCE index release on Friday, which could confirm or weaken the case for a September cut.

ETF Flows and Central Bank Demand Underpin Support

ETF flows, which had seen heavy outflows during the late July correction, have stabilized. Inflows into gold-backed ETFs in August resumed as global investors rotated back into safe-haven assets amid tariff risks and Fed turmoil. Central bank accumulation remains another critical driver: emerging market banks, particularly in Asia and the Middle East, continue diversifying away from the dollar. The World Gold Council reported that Q2 central bank demand hit record highs, supporting structural upside. Local currency moves are also highlighting demand: in the Philippines, gold rose to PHP 6,182.63 per gram and PHP 72,113.35 per tola, up from the previous day’s PHP 71,872.19 per tola, reflecting global price translation.

Mining Sector Activity Reflects High-Price Incentives

Exploration activity is accelerating with prices above $3,400. Legacy Minerals (ASX:LGM) secured approval for 4,500 meters of diamond drilling at Mt Carrington, a project with historical results of 12.82 meters at 48 g/t gold. The site, which closed in 1993 when gold was below $400, now looks viable with gold at nine times those levels. Legacy raised AU$7.75 million earlier this year, highlighting how elevated gold prices are revitalizing once-marginal projects. Additional assays at its Thomson project, showing long intersections of low-grade gold, point to broader exploration appetite underpinned by bullion strength.

Technical Picture: Key Resistance at $3,400 and Targeting $3,500

Technically, gold is consolidating gains just below $3,420, with the 20- and 100-period moving averages clustering between $3,340–$3,355, forming a potential bullish crossover. If sustained, the setup favors a push toward the $3,500 level, where breakout targets extend to $3,800. On the downside, support rests at $3,370, followed by $3,300 and $3,260, with $3,200 seen as the hard floor aligning with the 200-day EMA. The RSI remains positive but not overbought, indicating room for continuation if macro catalysts align.

Macro Events: Inflation and GDP Data to Decide Next Move

Markets await the U.S. Core PCE Index and the Q2 GDP revision later this week. A softer inflation print would validate rate cut bets and reinforce gold’s bid above $3,400. Stronger data could cool expectations, but geopolitical and political risks suggest downside is capped. Bond markets have already priced in a September cut almost fully, with additional easing in Q4, keeping pressure on the dollar and underpinning bullion.

Medium-Term Outlook Supported by Structural Shifts

Beyond short-term volatility, gold is in a powerful long-cycle uptrend. In the past month, futures gained 2% from $3,344 on July 25 to $3,410.80 today, while year-to-date performance exceeds +40%. Forecasts from major banks project prices reaching $3,700 by year-end 2025, citing record central bank demand and trade-war-induced dollar weakness. With legacy projects reopening and ETF inflows resuming, gold’s structural appeal remains strong, especially as political risks weigh on fiat credibility.

That’s TradingNEWS

At 13:01 GMT, XAU/USD is trading $3372.01, up $6.29 or +0.19%.

Trump’s Fed Pressure Triggers Safe-Haven Inflows into Gold

The dismissal is widely seen as a political maneuver aimed at steering the Fed toward a more dovish stance. Analysts, including Swissquote’s Carlo Alberto De Casa, warned that this introduces deeper uncertainty around the Fed’s credibility and decision-making autonomy—conditions historically supportive of gold.

Bond markets also reacted sharply. The 2-year Treasury yield dropped 3 bps to 3.70%, while the 10-year yield held around 4.279% and the 30-year yield rose to 4.916%, steepening the yield curve. Traders are now betting on lower short-term rates but pricing in longer-term inflation risk, both favorable for non-yielding gold.

Fed Rate Cut Odds and Inflation Data in Focus

Adding to the bullish gold narrative, Fed Chair Jerome Powell hinted at a potential rate cut in September, citing softening labor market indicators, even as inflation remains a concern. Money markets are now pricing in an 82% chance of a 25 bps cut.

Investors are eyeing this Friday’s PCE price index data—seen as the Fed’s preferred inflation gauge—for confirmation. A cooler reading could solidify the rate-cut narrative and strengthen gold’s upside.

China’s Gold Demand Rebounds Sharply

On the demand side, China’s net gold imports via Hong Kong jumped 126.81% in July compared to June, according to Hong Kong Census data. This marked a major rebound in physical demand, offering further support to bullion.

Trend Structure Intact Above Key Averages

Friday’s breakout also pushed silver above the prior swing high at $38.74, keeping it firmly within its rising trend channel. That channel has been respected since late July, and the recent pullback to $36.96 tested both the lower channel line and the 50-Day moving average — both of which held. The 50-Day line has now supported two significant swing lows: one in early August and the other at the most recent trough. That reinforces its role as medium-term trend support. As long as silver holds above the 50-Day (currently near $37.10), the broader uptrend remains firmly intact.

Near-Term Targets and Resistance Levels

With silver consolidating in the upper third of Friday’s wide-range day, attention now turns to the July high at $39.53 as the next logical upside target. A decisive breakout above that swing high would strengthen the bullish outlook and confirm a breakout of a rising trend channel. There is potential resistance around the top of the channel. Twice in July, silver approached that upper boundary and failed — triggering short-term corrections each time. A similar reaction could unfold again if price stalls there.

Channel Top Could Define Next Move

For now, silver is in a constructive technical position: it has broken out above interim resistance, retested dynamic support, and is consolidating near recent highs. The next major signal will come from how price behaves near the channel top and trend high. A clean breakout through each would suggest accelerating momentum and the potential for a new leg higher.

Alternatively, another rejection at channel resistance could lead to a corrective retracement — possibly back toward the 50-Day line. Until either scenario plays out, silver remains bullish within its rising channel and supported by its key moving averages.

For a look at all of today’s economic events, check out our economic calendar.

The (Brent) price declined on its last intraday levels, amid the emergence of the negative signals on the (RSI), after reaching overbought levels, attempting to offload this overbought condition, gaining bullish momentum that might assist it to recover and rise again, amid the dominance of the bullish correctional trend on the short-term basis, with the continuation of the positive pressure that comes from its trading above EMA50, besides the price affection by positive technical formation on the short-term basis, which is represented by the double bottom pattern.

VIP Trading Signals Performance by BestTradingSignal.com (August 18–22, 2025)

BestTradingSignal.com – Professional Trading Signals with high accuracy. Subscribe now to tailored packages for the world’s leading markets and receive signals instantly via Telegram from an expert team:

Check full VIP signals performance report for the week of August 18–22, 2025: Full Report

• Gold price faces selling pressure ahead of Fed Powell’s speech at the Jackson Hole Symposium.
• Fed’s Powell is expected to reiterate a “wait and see” approach on the monetary policy outlook.
• Traders trim Fed dovish bets ahead of Jerome Powell’s speech.

Gold price (XAU/USD) trades 0.3% lower around $3,330.00 during the European trading session on Friday. The precious metal faces selling pressure as market experts believe that Federal Reserve (Fed) Chair Jerome Powell could reiterate his argument that a “wait and see” approach on the interest rate outlook is appropriate in the current environment in his speech at the Jackson Hole (JH) Symposium at 14:00 GMT.

“The most likely scenario is that Powell won’t provide any definitive clues on what the Fed will do next ahead of critical non-farm payrolls and CPI data,” analysts at Commonwealth Bank said.

The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) minutes of the July monetary policy meeting also showed on Wednesday that a majority of members, including Jerome Powell, underscored the need for time to gain absolute clarity on the “magnitude and persistence of higher tariffs’ effects on inflation”.

Ahead of Fed Powell’s speech, traders have also trimmed bets supporting interest rate cuts by the Fed in the September meeting. According to the CME FedWatch tool, the probability of the Fed cutting interest rates in September has eased to 73.3% from 85.4% seen a week ago.

The maintenance of interest rates at higher levels by the Fed bodes poorly for non-yielding assets, such as Gold.

Traders raised Fed dovish bets earlier this month after the release of the Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) report for July, which showed a significant revision in newly employed workers in May and June on the downside.

On the global front, growing uncertainty over peace between Russia and Ukraine is expected to continue supporting the Gold price. On Thursday, Moscow launched a mass attack on targets in Ukraine. This came at a time when US President Donald Trump is persuading leaders from both nations to end the three-year-long war.

Gold technical analysis

Gold price trades in a Symmetrical Triangle, which indicates a sharp volatility contraction. The upper border of the above-mentioned chart pattern is plotted from the April 22 high around $3,500, while the downward border is placed from the May 15 low near $3,180.86.

The yellow metal wobbles near the 20-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) around $3,351.00, indicating a sideways trend.

The 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) oscillates inside the 40.00-60.00 range, suggesting indecisiveness among market participants.

Looking down, the Gold price would fall towards the round-level support of $3,200 and the May 15 low at $3,121, if it breaks below the May 29 low of $3,245.

Alternatively, the Gold price will enter an uncharted territory if it breaks above the psychological level of $3,500 decisively. Potential resistances would be $3,550 and $3,600.

Gold daily chart