• Gold price trades in negative territory around $3,235 in Tuesday’s Asian session. 
• US and China agreed to de-escalate their trade war by lowering import tariffs on each other’s goods for 90 days. 
• Traders brace for the US April CPI inflation report, which is due later on Tuesday. 

The Gold price (XAU/USD) edges lower to around $3,235 during the early Asian session on Tuesday. The precious metal remains on the defensive due to a stronger US Dollar (USD), higher US yields, and optimism on the US-China trade deal. Later on Tuesday, traders will take more cues from the US April Consumer Price Index (CPI) report.

Improved risk sentiment following the announcement of a temporary deal between the United States (US) and China to reduce tariffs has weighed on the safe-haven asset, like the Gold price. The US will cut extra tariffs it imposed on Chinese imports in April this year to 30% from 145%, and Chinese duties on US imports will be reduced to 10% from 125%. The fresh measures are effective for 90 days.

“The de-escalation of tensions between China and the US is reducing the demand for safe haven assets like gold,” said Giovanni Staunovo, analyst at Swiss bank and London bullion clearer UBS.

Gold traders brace for the US CPI inflation data on Tuesday, which might offer some hints about the US Federal Reserve’s (Fed) policy path. The headline CPI is expected to show an increase of 2.4% YoY in April, while the core CPI is projected to show a rise of 2.8% YoY in the same report period.

Swap markets have priced in the Fed’s first 25 basis points (bps) rate cut for the September meeting, and they expect two additional rate reductions towards the end of the year. Last week, they indicated three cuts this year, with a change likely as soon as July.  

India’s Prime Minister Narendra Modi said on Monday that operations against Pakistan have only been kept in abeyance, and the future will depend on their behaviour. Meanwhile, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky noted he is prepared to meet Russian President Vladimir Putin this week, shortly after Trump urged him to “immediately” accept the Russian leader’s offer to hold peace talks in Turkey. Any signs of escalating geopolitical tensions could boost the safe-haven flows, benefiting the yellow metal.

Gold price retains positive bias in the longer term

Gold price trades on a negative note on the day. According to the daily timeframe, the constructive outlook of the precious metal remains intact, characterized by the price holding above the key 100-day Exponential Moving Average. However, further consolidation ot temporary sell-off cannot be ruled out as the 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) is located below the midline.

On the bright side, the first upside barrier to watch is $3,347, the high of May 9. Any follow-through buying above this level could pave the way to $3,432, the upper boundary of the Bollinger Band. Further north, the next hurdle is seen at the all-time high of $3,500.

In the bearish case, the $3,200 psychological level acts as an initial support level for XAU/USD. The additional downside filter emerges at $3,142, the high of April 2.

XAU/USD Current price: $3,224.66

• De-escalating trade tensions between the US and China brought back optimism.
• The US will release the April Consumer Price Index (CPI) on Tuesday.
• XAU/USD nears May monthly low and aims to break below it.

Gold prices gapped lower at the weekly opening, falling towards $3,207.82, its lowest in roughly two weeks amid returning optimism. Financial markets welcome headlines indicating the United States (US) and China agreed to rollback tit-for-that tariffs for 90 days, de-escalating trade war tensions.

Beijing and Washington made a joint announcement reporting the US will cut extra levies on China from the current 145% to 30%. Reciprocally, China will charge 10% on US imports, down from the previously announced 125%.

The US Dollar (USD) holds on to most of its intraday gains across the FX board, albeit Wall Street retreating from intraday peaks put a halt to the USD rally. Still, US indexes retain substantial intraday gains, with the risk-on mood set to continue As per XAU/USD, the pair keeps pressuring the aforementioned low, and seems poised to extend the slide.

On Tuesday, the focus changes to US data, as the country will release the April Consumer Price Index (CPI), foreseen stable at 2.4% YoY. On a monthly basis, the CPI is foreseen up by 0.3% after falling 0.1% in March.

XAU/USD short-term technical outlook

As long as optimism prevails, XAU/USD would remain under pressure. The rally to record highs was due to fears over a global economic slowdown and mounting inflationary pressures due to tariffs. There are no fears without tariffs.

Technically, the daily chart for XAU/USD shows the pair fell below a now flat 20 Simple Moving Average (SMA) while still far above bullish 100 and 200 SMAs. Technical indicators, in the meantime, head firmly south after crossing their midlines into negative territory, anticipating lower lows ahead.

The 4-hour chart shows XAU/USD is battling around a mildly bullish 200 SMA, while a bearish 20 SMA crosses below the 100 SMA in the $3,320 area. At the same time, the Momentum indicator resumed its decline within negative levels, while the Relative Strength Index (RSI) indicator consolidates at around 29, without signs of downward exhaustion. A break through the daily low exposes May monthly low at $3,202.03, while once below the latter, a steeper decline is on the table.

Support levels: 3,202.00 3,187.20 3,176.45

Resistance levels: 3,234.40 3,248.50 3,263.85

Platinum price succeeded to confirm surpassing the barrier at $983.00, activating the suggested bullish rally, to achieve the initial target by reaching $1002.00, the stability of the price above the breached barrier is required for taking advantage of the main indicators positivity, to attempt to record new gains by its rally towards 61.8%Fibonacci correction level at $1017.00.

The price decline below $983.00 and providing negative close will cancel the bullish suggestion, which forces the price to suffer several losses by reaching $965.00, then press on the support at $950.00.

The expected trading range for today is between $990.00 and $1017.00

Trend forecast: Bullish

Fortinet’s stock price (FTNT) fell in latest intraday trading, trespassing the support of the 50-day SMA and exposing the stock to more negative pressure, amid negative signals from the Stochastic after reaching overbought levels, and amid the dominance of the downward correctional wave in the short term.

Therefore we expect the price to decline and target the support of $91.25, provided the psychological resistance of $100.00 holds on.

Today’s price forecast: Bearish

Natural gas futures are trading around $3.734, approaching the upper boundary of a well-defined ascending channel. The price recently pulled back from the $3.825 resistance level, a critical barrier that has capped gains in recent sessions. This level represents a key psychological zone for traders, with a potential breakout setting the stage for a move toward $3.926, followed by the significant $4.020 resistance.

On the downside, immediate support lies at $3.722, aligning closely with the lower trendline of the ascending channel. A break below this level could expose natural gas to further downside toward the $3.626 support, followed by the 50-day EMA at $3.644, which acts as a critical support for the ongoing uptrend.

Natural gas is testing the upper boundary of its ascending channel, with a break above $3.825 potentially signaling a continuation toward $3.926. However, a pullback below $3.722 could risk a deeper correction, targeting the $3.626 area.

WTI Oil Price Forecast

Silver Struggles as Risk Sentiment Weighs on Prices

Silver (XAG/USD) is trading around $32.91, facing similar pressure as traders digest the latest trade headlines. The metal remains under pressure despite geopolitical uncertainties, as a stronger dollar and rising risk appetite diminish its safe-haven appeal.

However, silver has managed to hold above the critical $32.75 support level, suggesting that buyers are still active at lower levels. According to the latest data, silver is down nearly 3% from its monthly high of $33.85, reflecting the broader shift toward riskier assets.

Focus Shifts to US Inflation and Fed Policy

Looking ahead, traders will focus on US inflation data due this week, which could provide further direction for gold and silver. The Consumer Price Index (CPI) is expected to show a 4.1% year-over-year increase, a potential sign that inflation remains sticky despite recent Fed rate hikes.

Additionally, Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s speech on Thursday will be closely watched for insights into the central bank’s outlook on future rate cuts.

Short-Term Forecast

Gold faces near-term pressure, with a break below $3,259 potentially signaling a deeper correction toward $3,211, while silver must clear $33.25 to confirm an uptrend.

Gold Prices Forecast: Technical Analysis

Despite the last weak trading of the EURJPY pair, it success to settle above the breached barrier at 193.35 level represents a main factor for confirming the domination of the bullish track, to fluctuate near 193.85, attempting to ease the way towards more of the bullish waves.

Stochastic approach from 80 level will increase the chances of gathering the positive momentum, to keep waiting for recording the target near 164.20, then repeats the attempts of pressing on the resistance near 164.90, to form the next target of the near trading.

The expected trading range for today is between 163.30 and 164.90

Trend forecast: Bullish

Platinum price succeeded to confirm surpassing the barrier at $983.00, activating the suggested bullish rally, to achieve the initial target by reaching $1002.00, the stability of the price above the breached barrier is required for taking advantage of the main indicators positivity, to attempt to record new gains by its rally towards 61.8%Fibonacci correction level at $1017.00.

The price decline below $983.00 and providing negative close will cancel the bullish suggestion, which forces the price to suffer several losses by reaching $965.00, then press on the support at $950.00.

The expected trading range for today is between $990.00 and $1017.00

Trend forecast: Bullish

• Silver price found support following news that Canadian mining company Pan American Silver plans to acquire MAG Silver Corp.
• Ongoing geopolitical tensions also underpinned the metal, as India issued a warning to Pakistan over recent ceasefire violations.
• Silver gains may be limited by a decline in safe-haven demand, driven by growing optimism around US-China trade talks.

Silver price (XAG/USD) is extending its gains for the third consecutive session, trading around $32.90 per troy ounce during Asian hours on Monday. The precious metal drew support from news that Canadian miner Pan American Silver will acquire MAG Silver Corp in a deal valuing the company at approximately $2.1 billion, according to Reuters.

The acquisition grants Pan American Silver access to MAG’s 44% stake in the high-grade Juanicipio Silver mine in Mexico, operated by Fresnillo, which owns the remaining 56%. The deal, unanimously approved by both companies’ boards, is expected to close in the second half of 2025.

Geopolitical tensions, meanwhile, continue to lend support to Silver. India warned Pakistan of potential retaliation over recent ceasefire violations, a claim denied by Pakistan’s military. Separately, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy expressed hope for a temporary ceasefire with Russia starting Monday, May 12, but Moscow rejected the proposal, calling instead for direct talks without preconditions.

However, gains in Silver may be capped by easing safe-haven demand amid growing optimism surrounding US-China trade relations. Over the weekend, both countries concluded productive discussions, with Beijing set to launch formal negotiations and Washington citing progress toward an agreement.

Further weighing on Silver, the Federal Reserve last week flagged inflation and labor market risks, with Chair Jerome Powell ruling out a preemptive rate cut in response to tariff-related economic concerns.

• Gold price opens the week on a bearish note amid US-China trade deal optimism.
• The US Dollar holds a bullish opening gap amid a generalized risk-on market profile.
• Gold price closed Friday above 21-day SMA, then at $3,307, where next?

Gold price is licking its wounds after witnessing a steep sell-off in the opening trades, sending the bright metal to its lowest level in five days near the $3,250 level.

Gold price wilts on reduced safe-haven appeal

The latest leg down in Gold price is driven by a generalized upbeat mood as investors cheer ‘’substantial progress’ touted by the United States (US) and China following their high-stakes trade talks in Geneva over the weekend.

Increased hopes that the world’s two largest economies will finally reach a trade deal after last month’s tit-for-tat tariffs on each other almost put a halt to their foreign trade. This broader market optimism has diminished Gold’s appeal as a traditional safe haven.

However, the Gold price downside appears capped, as a US-Sino joint statement on the Geneva trade talks is eagerly anticipated for fresh trading impetus.

Additionally, Gold price continues to receive support from the ongoing geopolitical tensions between India and Pakistan and Russia-Ukraine.

“The Indian military sent a “hotline message” to Pakistan on Sunday about violations of a ceasefire agreed upon this week and informed it of New Delhi’s intent to respond if it was repeated, a top Indian army officer said, while the Pakistan military’s spokesman denied any ceasefire violations,” according to Reuters.

Meanwhile, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy stated that he hopes for a full and temporary ceasefire with Russia to begin on Monday, May 12. However, Moscow effectively rejected the proposal and called for direct negotiations instead without preconditions.

Looking ahead, several key factors remain, including trade and geopolitical risks, which could continue to keep Gold sellers in check.

Markets also focus on US trade talks with Japan and the European Union (EU), which remain a cause for concern, especially after the European Commission announced last week that it plans to introduce countermeasures on up to EUR95 billion ($107.2 billion) of US imports, if negotiations with Washington were to fail to eliminate tariffs applied by US President Donald Trump, per Reuters.

Earlier on, Japanese Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba noted that “autos, agriculture, airplane parts are all separate from security matters,” while setting out some outlines on trade negotiations.

Gold price technical analysis: Daily chart

Gold price closed Friday above the 21-day Simple Moving Average (SMA), then at $3,307, keeping buyers hopeful.

However, the 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) appears to be on the verge of turning bearish as the leading indicator threatens the midline.

If the RSI holds the midline, a rebound toward the 21-day SMA support-turned-resistance at $3,313 will unfold. Acceptance above that level will call for a test of the falling trendline resistance at $3,433, where the intermittent resistance aligns.

A sustained move above that level will open the door toward the record high of $3,500. 

Conversely, a daily candlestick closing below the 21-day SMA at $3,313 will likely negate any bullish bias in the near term, opening up a fresh downtrend toward the 50-day SMA at $3,138.

Ahead of that, the May 1 low of $3,202 will be challenged.