Silver holds near $33.00, supported by soft Dollar and improved risk appetite.
RSI flattens despite bullish tone, suggesting near-term indecision and possible consolidation.
Break above $33.25 targets $33.68 and $34.00; drop below $32.75 may expose $31.89 and $31.28.
Silver price edged up 0.95% on Tuesday as the Greenback finished the session below the 101.00 figure, according to the US Dollar Index (DXY), which tracks the performance of the buck’s value against a basket of six currencies. At the time of writing, as the Asian session begins, XAG/USD trades at $32.92, registering modest gains near the $33.00 figure.
XAG/USD Price Forecast: Technical outlook
The Silver technical outlook suggests that further consolidation lies ahead, with stir resistance found at the psychological $33.00 figure. However, momentum indicators like the Relative Strength Index (RSI), despite remaining bullish, turned flattish as indecision sinks on traders.
For a bullish resumption, buyers need to reclaim $33.00 and clear the latest swing high reached on May 7 at $33.25. Once surpassed, $33.50 emerges as next resistance, followed by the April 28 high of $33.68. A breach of the latter will expose $34.00.
Conversely, if XAG/USD drifts below the 50-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) of $32.75, a move towards the 100-day SMA at $31.89 is likely. On further weakness, the bulls’ following line of defense would be the 200-day SMA at $31.28.
XAG/USD Price Chart – Daily
Silver FAQs
Silver is a precious metal highly traded among investors. It has been historically used as a store of value and a medium of exchange. Although less popular than Gold, traders may turn to Silver to diversify their investment portfolio, for its intrinsic value or as a potential hedge during high-inflation periods. Investors can buy physical Silver, in coins or in bars, or trade it through vehicles such as Exchange Traded Funds, which track its price on international markets.
Silver prices can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can make Silver price escalate due to its safe-haven status, although to a lesser extent than Gold’s. As a yieldless asset, Silver tends to rise with lower interest rates. Its moves also depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAG/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Silver at bay, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to propel prices up. Other factors such as investment demand, mining supply – Silver is much more abundant than Gold – and recycling rates can also affect prices.
Silver is widely used in industry, particularly in sectors such as electronics or solar energy, as it has one of the highest electric conductivity of all metals – more than Copper and Gold. A surge in demand can increase prices, while a decline tends to lower them. Dynamics in the US, Chinese and Indian economies can also contribute to price swings: for the US and particularly China, their big industrial sectors use Silver in various processes; in India, consumers’ demand for the precious metal for jewellery also plays a key role in setting prices.
Silver prices tend to follow Gold’s moves. When Gold prices rise, Silver typically follows suit, as their status as safe-haven assets is similar. The Gold/Silver ratio, which shows the number of ounces of Silver needed to equal the value of one ounce of Gold, may help to determine the relative valuation between both metals. Some investors may consider a high ratio as an indicator that Silver is undervalued, or Gold is overvalued. On the contrary, a low ratio might suggest that Gold is undervalued relative to Silver.
Resistance was seen near recent highs that are marked by several indicators that converged around a price zone. If the price of natural gas was going to pullback further from recent highs, now would be the time to do it. It is important to recognize that since the April 24 swing low of $2.86, there have been only two previous pullbacks of one day each. Anything more than one day pullback would be a change in that pattern and possibly an indication of a slowdown in bullish momentum.
Sharp Rally Hits Turbulence?
As of yesterday’s high, of $3.84, the price of natural gas had risen by $0.98 or 34.4% in only 12 days. Since a significant potential resistance zone has been reached a deeper bearish pullback would not be a surprise. If an advance above this week’s high is to be sustained, a period of consolidation or larger pullback could provide preparation time for demand to build.
Initial Downside $3.47
The 38.2% Fibonacci retracement is at $3.47 and provides an initial downside target. And it can be considered along with a prior pullback low of $3.42. That low is part of the price structure of the near-term uptrend. Therefore, it has some significance, particularly if it fails to hold as support. The potentially significant support area around the 20-Day MA is now at $3.37 and is the next lower target if $3.42 fails to hold.
For a look at all of today’s economic events, check out our economic calendar.
An upbeat market mood weighs on the US Dollar, providing near-term support to XAU/USD.
The United States Consumer Price Index rose by less than anticipated in April.
XAU/USD shows a limited bullish potential in the near term, support at $3,225.
Spot Gold consolidates losses on Tuesday, holding above the $3,200 mark yet unable to recover the ground lost on Monday. Financial markets retain the positive mood triggered by news of de-escalating trade tensions between the United States (US) and China, as both countries agreed to reduced tariffs on each other for 90 days.
Other than that, the US released the April Consumer Price Index (CPI), which rose by 2.3% compared to a year earlier, easing from the previous 2.4%. The core annual reading, in the meantime, remained unchanged at 2.8%. Finally, the monthly CPI was up 0.2%, above the previous -0.1% but below the 0.3% anticipated by market players.
The upbeat mood weighed on the Greenback, leading to a modest XAU/USD advance. Meanwhile, Wall Street trades mixed. The Dow Jones Industrial Average is down roughly 0.40%, still positive for the week after adding over 1,000 points on Monday. The Nasdaq Composite and the S&P 500 post intraday gains, with the latter turning positive for the year.
XAU/USD short-term technical outlook
XAU/USD hovers around $3,250, and the daily chart shows a limited upward potential. The pair keeps developing below a flat 20 Simple Moving Average (SMA), providing dynamic resistance at around $3,316.70. The 100 and 200 SMAs maintain their upward slopes far below the current level, suggesting bulls have not yet given up. Finally, technical indicators stand in neutral territory, with the Relative Strength Index (RSI) indicator consolidating at around 50, failing to provide clear directional clues.
In the near term, and according to the 4-hour chart, a mildly bullish 200 SMA at around $3.225.40 provides support for a second consecutive day, yet at the same time, the 20 SMA accelerated south above the current level and after crossing below a flat 100 SMA, in line with increased selling interest. Technical indicators, in the meantime, consolidate within negative levels, also supporting a bearish extension, particularly if the pair finally breaks below the mentioned 200 SMA.
Goldman Sachs sees upside risk to its Brent and WTI oil price forecast in 2025 and 2026 from recent trade de-escalation, it said in a note on Tuesday.
The bank estimates around $3-4 per barrel of upside risk to its Brent and WTI oil price forecast of $60/bbl and $56/bbl respectively for the rest of 2025, and $56/bbl and $52/bbl respectively in 2026.
The United States and China said on Monday that they would pause their tariffs for 90 days. Following the talks in Geneva over the weekend, the United States said it will cut tariffs on Chinese imports to 30% from 145% while China said it would cut duties on U.S. imports to 10% from 125%.
Goldman said that reduced recession risk has also reduced the probability of very low oil prices, although solid supply growth outside U.S. shale may still push prices significantly lower.
Oil prices fell to a four-year low last month on investor worries that the U.S.-China trade war could depress economic growth and oil demand.
The bank said that while it sees some upside risk to its oil price forecasts, it still expects a significant hit from tariffs to U.S. real income, global GDP, and global oil demand.
Brent crude BRN1! futures were trading at $66.77/bbl by 1443 GMT, while U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude CL1! was at $63.85/bbl.
The rebound was fueled by a successful retest of a retracement zone between $3228.38 and $3164.23. Buyers also defended the May 1 swing bottom at $3201.95, temporarily halting the bearish momentum. However, the upside appears limited without a move through resistance between $3318.50 and $3351.08, where sellers are likely to re-emerge.
A break below $3201.95 would shift the main trend to down on the daily swing chart and target the next major level at $3145.00—the 50-day moving average. This moving average could act as both a technical magnet and a key sentiment indicator for the rest of the year.
Tariff Truce Sparks Risk-On Trade, Pressures Gold
Gold’s sharp decline on Monday followed the announcement of a temporary U.S.-China tariff truce. The U.S. agreed to reduce import duties from 145% to 30%, while China cut tariffs from 125% to 10%. The agreement eased trade tensions and fueled a rally in global equities, while the U.S. dollar surged to a one-month high—both factors that undercut gold’s appeal.
CPI Report Could Shift Fed Expectations, Influence Gold Price Future
Traders are now focused on the April U.S. Consumer Price Index report, which could shape expectations for Fed policy. Barclays projects headline CPI to rise 0.3% month-over-month (2.3% year-over-year), with core CPI up 0.2% (2.8% year-over-year). Although tariffs were implemented in early April, economists expect little immediate impact on prices due to exemptions and advanced shipments that likely front-loaded inflationary pressure into Q1.
A softer-than-expected CPI print could take pressure off the Fed and weaken the dollar, offering short-term support for gold. However, any upside surprise would likely reinforce expectations for tighter policy, boosting yields and dragging on gold.
The (USDJPY) price declined in its recent intraday trading, affected by the stability of the current resistance level at 148.13, gathering the gains of its last rises, attempting to gain positive momentum that might assist it to keep the solid bullish correctional wave, besides its attempt to offload some of its clear overbought conditions on the (RSI), especially with the emergence of negative overlapping signal from it.
The domination of the bullish correctional trend supports the price, accompanied by its upcoming intraday trading, especially when breaching the resistance at 148.13, to target the next resistance at 150.00.
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Crude oil futures tumbled over the past week, falling more than 6% as concerns over weakening global demand and a resurgent supply outlook weighed on sentiment. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) briefly hit a low of $56.39 before recovering to $59.24 by Thursday’s close. While dip-buying provided short-term support, the underlying market tone remains distinctly bearish as fundamental pressures intensify.
China Demand Slowdown Fuels Bearish Sentiment
Fresh economic data from China delivered a major blow to oil bulls. The country’s official manufacturing PMI slumped to 49.0 in April, signaling contraction and raising alarm over the health of the world’s largest crude importer. Of particular concern was the new export orders index, which plunged to its weakest level since 2012 outside of pandemic anomalies. Analysts responded by slashing full-year growth forecasts to just 3.5%, casting doubt on sustainable Chinese demand.
Though China’s March crude imports surged, analysts argue this was driven more by pre-sanctions stockpiling than any uptick in consumption. With Beijing’s fiscal stimulus measures struggling to gain traction, traders are increasingly skeptical of China’s ability to sustain meaningful crude demand growth in the near term.
Trade War Escalation Undermines Global Oil Demand Expectations
U.S.-China trade tensions are exacerbating the fragile demand picture. A fresh round of tariffs and retaliatory measures has heightened fears of a global…
Crude oil futures tumbled over the past week, falling more than 6% as concerns over weakening global demand and a resurgent supply outlook weighed on sentiment. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) briefly hit a low of $56.39 before recovering to $59.24 by Thursday’s close. While dip-buying provided short-term support, the underlying market tone remains distinctly bearish as fundamental pressures intensify.
China Demand Slowdown Fuels Bearish Sentiment
Fresh economic data from China delivered a major blow to oil bulls. The country’s official manufacturing PMI slumped to 49.0 in April, signaling contraction and raising alarm over the health of the world’s largest crude importer. Of particular concern was the new export orders index, which plunged to its weakest level since 2012 outside of pandemic anomalies. Analysts responded by slashing full-year growth forecasts to just 3.5%, casting doubt on sustainable Chinese demand.
Though China’s March crude imports surged, analysts argue this was driven more by pre-sanctions stockpiling than any uptick in consumption. With Beijing’s fiscal stimulus measures struggling to gain traction, traders are increasingly skeptical of China’s ability to sustain meaningful crude demand growth in the near term.
Trade War Escalation Undermines Global Oil Demand Expectations
U.S.-China trade tensions are exacerbating the fragile demand picture. A fresh round of tariffs and retaliatory measures has heightened fears of a global slowdown, with the U.S. economy already contracting in Q1—the first quarterly drop in three years. Analysts warn that President Trump’s tariff strategy is significantly disrupting global trade flows and could push the global economy toward recession, directly pressuring oil consumption.
Barclays and other banks have already downgraded oil demand projections, with Brent forecasts reduced by $4 to $70 per barrel. As confidence in a robust economic recovery falters, so too does support for higher oil prices.
EIA Reports Mixed Inventory Data as Supply Stays Ample
On the supply front, the latest U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) data painted a mixed but largely bearish picture. Crude oil inventories fell by 2.7 million barrels to 440.4 million barrels last week—defying analyst expectations for a build of 429,000 barrels. However, inventories at the Cushing, Oklahoma, hub rose by 682,000 barrels, and distillate stockpiles increased by 900,000 barrels, against forecasts for a draw.
Gasoline stocks dropped more than expected—falling 4 million barrels—but refinery activity continued to ramp up, with crude runs rising by 189,000 bpd and utilization climbing to 88.6%. Net U.S. crude imports also fell sharply by 663,000 bpd, pointing to a refined product market that is still structurally oversupplied despite headline crude draws.
OPEC+ Output Plans Keep Pressure on Prices
The broader supply outlook continues to tilt bearish. Several OPEC+ producers are reportedly pressing for accelerated output increases in June, as frustration mounts over internal quota breaches by members like Kazakhstan and Iraq. Saudi Arabia, the bloc’s de facto leader, has signaled it can tolerate prolonged low prices and is unwilling to cut production further—signaling a strategic pivot toward defending market share over price.
Russia, while less aggressive, is unlikely to block moderate increases. With OPEC+ still holding back over 5 million bpd and internal cohesion fraying, traders are bracing for a more aggressive unwind of production cuts that could flood an already soft market with excess barrels.
Geopolitical Risks Offer Only Temporary Relief
Heightened geopolitical tension around Iran briefly lifted crude prices midweek. WTI and Brent rebounded nearly 2% on Thursday after President Trump threatened to impose secondary sanctions on buyers of Iranian oil. The comments followed a postponed round of nuclear talks, adding to uncertainty over Middle East supply flows.
Analysts estimate that effective enforcement of these sanctions could remove up to 1.5 million bpd from global supply. However, this potential disruption is being counterbalanced by OPEC+ production flexibility and rising inventories, limiting the upside potential for prices driven by geopolitics alone.
Weekly Light Crude Oil Futures
Trend Indicator Analysis
The main trend is down according to the weekly swing chart. A trade through $71.64 will change the main trend to up. The minor trend is also down. A trade through $64.87 will change the minor trend to up. This will shift momentum to the upside.
The long-term range is $52.45 to $84.90. Its 50% level is $68.67. This is major resistance. Trading on the bearish side of this key level is also a sign of weakness. Additional resistance is the 52-week moving average at $68.79.
The short-term range is $71.64 to $54.48. Its pivot at $63.06 is controlling the near-term direction. Last week, sellers drove the market to its weakside, triggering the sharp break.
The minor range is $54.48 to $64.87. Its pivot is $59.67. Crude oil is currently on the weakside of this indicator.
Weekly Technical Forecast
The direction of the Weekly Light Crude Oil Futures market the week ending May 9 is likely to be determined by trader reaction to $59.67.
Bullish Scenario
A sustained move over $59.67 will signal the presence of counter-trend buyers. If this creates enough momentum, we could see a possible near-term rally into the major pivot at $63.06.
Bearish Scenario
A sustained move under $59.67 will indicate the presence of sellers. This will leave the market vulnerable to a plunge into the April low at $54.48.
Bearish Oil Prices Forecast as Supply-Demand Balance Breaks Down
The fundamental backdrop for crude oil remains bearish. Demand is deteriorating under the weight of China’s economic slowdown and trade war escalation, while supply resilience from OPEC+ and the U.S. continues to pressure prices. The latest EIA data, despite some bullish headlines, confirms ample domestic supply and robust refining activity.
However, the market remains prone to short-covering rallies—especially around geopolitical flashpoints such as Iranian sanctions or surprise OPEC+ maneuvers. These moves may provide temporary relief, but without a sustained improvement in demand or a decisive policy shift from major producers, they are unlikely to change the overall direction.
Traders should maintain a cautious stance. Unless WTI reclaims and holds above $59.67 this week on the back of stronger fundamentals, the oil prices forecast continues to favor further downside. With structural imbalances deepening, rallies may offer better opportunities to sell than signals of a lasting recovery.
Although the market may be vulnerable to short-covering rallies as it nears value areas, the longer-term trend will remain decisively lower as long as it remains under the 52-week moving average at $68.78.
The GBPJPY pair continued forming bullish trading, to face 23.6%Fibonacci correction level at 159.80, forming the previously suggested main target, to notice forming mixed trading due to stochastic reach to the overbought level, which makes us prefer the domination of the sideways bias temporarily until breaching the current barrier, which allows it to target new positive stations that might begin at 196.60.
While the failure to breach the barrier might assist the price to activate the bearish correctional track, which forces the price to suffer several losses by reaching 193.85 followed by 193.30 level, to close the last price gap.
The expected trading range for today is between 194.40 and 196.60
Trend forecast: Bullish
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The (USDJPY) price declined in its recent intraday trading, affected by the stability of the current resistance level at 148.13, gathering the gains of its last rises, attempting to gain positive momentum that might assist it to keep the solid bullish correctional wave, besides its attempt to offload some of its clear overbought conditions on the (RSI), especially with the emergence of negative overlapping signal from it.
The domination of the bullish correctional trend supports the price, accompanied by its upcoming intraday trading, especially when breaching the resistance at 148.13, to target the next resistance at 150.00.
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Full coverage of commodities such as gold, oil, silver, and more
Full coverage of all major forex currency pairs
Full coverage of key global indices and stocks
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Exclusive and breaking news
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Gold price consolidates above $3,200, near one-week lows ahead of US CPI data.
The US Dollar retreats as markets weigh the US-China trade truce and Fed easing bets.
Gold price cracked the 21-day SMA support, but buyers refuse to give up yet.
Gold price has managed to defend the $3,200 mark again, consolidating Monday’s 3% slump early Tuesday. Gold sellers take a breather as traders await the high-impact US Consumer Price Index (CPI) data, which is expected to drive the next trading impetus.
Gold price eyes US CPI data for some reprieve
The gold price is showing some fresh signs of life in Asian trading this Tuesday as the US Dollar (USD) pulls back after a strong performance following news of a highly anticipated US-China trade truce.
Following the weekend’s trade talks in Geneva, both sides agreed that the US would reduce levies on Chinese imports from 145% to 30% during a 90-day negotiation period, and China would lower duties from 125% to 10%.
Risk flows intensified amid optimism about the China trade deal, easing US recession fears and reducing bets for aggressive Federal Reserve (Fed) interest rate cuts this year, which in turn powered the USD’s ongoing recovery at the expense of the traditional safe-haven Gold price.
Additionally, a ceasefire between India and Pakistan, along with optimism ahead of Thursday’s Russia-Ukraine peace talks, contributed to the downside in the Gold price.
In Tuesday’s trading so far, USD sellers appear to have regained control, as investors remain wary of the prospects for a permanent thaw in the US-China trade war. Fanning these concerns, US Trade Representative Jamieson Greer said late Monday that China has agreed to remove countermeasures. However, if things don’t work out, China tariffs can be reinstated.
Furthermore, traders resort to profit-taking on their USD longs heading into the US CPI showdown, thereby capping the downside of the Gold price.
The next directional move in the bright metal hinges on the outcome of the US inflation data release. Markets are expecting the headline annual US CPI to rise 2.4% in April, at the same pace as in March. The core CPI inflation is set to remain at 2.8% over the year in the same period.
An upside surprise to the CPI figures would double down on the renewed hawkish sentiment surrounding the Fed, bolstering the USD rally while fuelling a fresh decline in the non-interest-bearing Gold price. On the other hand, an unexpected slowdown in the US CPI growth could revive expectations of more than two Fed rate cuts, lending support to the bullion.
However, any headlines from the Trump administration regarding potential trade deals with the US’ major trading partners could outweigh the market reaction to the US CPI data, driving the Gold price action.
Speeches from Fed policymakers will also be closely scrutinized.
Gold price technical analysis: Daily chart
Gold price cracked the 21-day Simple Moving Average (SMA), then at $3,313 on a daily closing basis on Monday, opening the door for further downside.
The 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) also turned bearish after closing below the midline for the first time since early April.
At the time of this press, the leading indicator is flirting with the midline, near 49, as buyers vie for control.
Thus, it remains to be seen if a hotter-than-expected US CPI data fuel a fresh leg down in Gold price toward the 50-day SMA at $3,145.
The next healthy support levels are seen at the $3,100 round level and the April 10 low of $3,072.
In case the US CPI data surprises to the downside, Gold price could recapture the 21-day SMA support-turned-resistance, now at $3,311. Acceptance above that level will call for a test of the falling trendline resistance at $3,430, where the intermittent resistance aligns.
A sustained move above that level will open the door toward the record high of $3,500.
