Dynamic Resistance at 20-Day MA

Since the sharp drop on April 3, the 20-Day MA has defined dynamic resistance of the near-term downtrend. Recently, the 20-Day line was tested as resistance twice during an initial counter-trend rally and it was followed by an accelerated decline. A second counter trend rally began from Monday’s low of $55.81 and looks like it is poised to reach the 20-Day line at a minimum.

Given the recent history resistance is expected to be seen once first approached. But if strength in the price of crude oil can be maintained there is a chance of an upside breakout. A rally above the 20-Day line would show strength but a confirmed breakout would need a daily close above that line.

Lower Swing Low Established

Monday’s low established a higher swing low, and it was accompanied by a higher swing low in the relative strength index (RSI). Nonetheless, crude oil is rising inside a bear trend on multiple time frames. Whether it can continue to rise depends on the behavior around key potential resistance levels. The first being the 20-Day MA. After that, there are several minor price levels of interest until last week’s high of $64.06, which was a lower weekly high.

Short Term Bullish

The developing weekly pattern in crude oil is bullish and may reflect downside exhaustion. Bullish behavior was also seen in the weekly candle at the prior bottom of $55.23 in early April. Regardless, a period a consolidation is also a possibility as overall volatility could begin to diminish if crude oil continues to test the lows as support and it stays below the 20-Day MA.

For a look at all of today’s economic events, check out our economic calendar.

• Silver capped by 50-day SMA at $32.68 despite intraday high of $32.93; RSI turns flat near neutral.
• Break above $33.00 could open path to $33.68 and $34.00; downside risk below $32.22 targets $31.80 and $31.19.
• Market sentiment buoyed by US-UK trade deal and hopes of de-escalation in US-China relations ahead of weekend talks.

Siver price held firm on Thursday as risk appetite improved on news of a US-UK trade deal, along with hopes that Sino-US tensions could be lowered, as delegations of both countries would meet in Switzerland this weekend. At the time of writing, XAG/USD trades at $32.44, down 0.15%.

XAG/USD Price Forecast: Technical outlook

Silver price is trading below the 50-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) at $32.68, a key technical resistance level that capped the metal’s advance despite hitting a daily high of $32.93. Momentum shows the lack of commitments of buyers and sellers as portrayed by the Relative Strength Index (RSI), which hovers near its 50 neutral line, turning flat. That said, XAG/USD would likely remain sideways in the short term.

For a bullish continuation, XAG/USD must clear the 50-day SMA and the $33.00 figure. Once achieved, the next ceiling level will be an April 25 daily high at $33.68, followed by $34.00. Conversely, if Silver slides beneath $32.22, look for a test of the 100-day SMA at $31.80, ahead of the 200-day SMA at $31.19.

XAG/USD Price Chart – Daily

Resistance Zone Retained

Before the bull trend can go higher it first needs to break out from the resistance zone that stopped the ascent on Monday and then again today. Resistance was seen at the $3.75 high on Monday, which led to a short one-day pullback that found support around the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement. Strength returned quickly with positive gains on Wednesday and a continuation higher today. The bearish response following another test of the resistance zone earlier in today’s session further confirms the resistance zone. What happens next should provide clues.

Drop Below $3.53 May Lead Lower

A decline below today’s low of $3.53 is short-term bearish and increases the chance for a test of this week’s low at $3.42 and possibly dropping below that level. The key 20-Day MA is now at $3.31. If a deeper pullback comes, that line is likely to be tested. If support is seen at or above the 20-Day line, natural gas has a chance of continuing higher.

Given the significance of the resistance zone a deeper pullback before another breakout attempt would be healthy for the rally. Nonetheless, an earlier breakout to new trend highs would be bullish. But the upside may be limited as during the advance the price of natural gas rose by $0.90 or 31.1% as of Monday’s high.

Keep Eye on 50-Day Moving Average Resistance

The 50-Day MA, now at $3.75, has been falling and has converged with the high from Monday. There is the neckline of a head and should topping pattern at $3.74 and the AVWAP from the top of the trend is at $3.73. An upside trend breakout would be signaled on a rise above $3.75, the top of the resistance zone. Until then, natural gas can be anticipated to consolidate or continue the bearish pullback.

For a look at all of today’s economic events, check out our economic calendar.

U.S. crude oil supply will rise more slowly than expected for the rest of 2025 and in 2026 and peak as early as this year, as WTI benchmark prices below $60 per barrel are testing the breakeven point of shale production, energy flows intelligence firm Kpler said on Monday.

Oil prices have slipped by more than 15% since the beginning of April as the market fears recessions from the U.S. tariffs and oversupply from the aggressive production hikes from OPEC+. Prices dipped early on Monday after the OPEC+ group decided on Saturday to raise collective output by 411,000 barrels per day (bpd), nearly triple the volume originally scheduled.

The U.S. benchmark, WTI Crude, was trading at about $57 per barrel—a price point that is below the breakeven levels for many shale wells, especially those outside the prime acreage and hottest spots in the Permian.

With the low oil prices, Kpler has now cut its U.S. crude supply forecast by 120,000 barrels per day (bpd) to 170,000 bpd for the rest of 2025 and into 2026, “as weaker prices threaten to slow shale production.”

“With WTI, the main US benchmark crude, now near breakeven levels for new wells, producers are likely to cut back drilling,” said the analysts at Kpler.

U.S. shale producers are the most reactive to oil price changes and they are typically quick to follow the price trends. Lower margins are prompting caution among the American oil industry, Kpler noted.

The latest OPEC+ move to fight for market share and discipline U.S. shale is putting pressure on U.S. crude output, said Kpler, which now expects America’s crude production to peak in 2025 and gradually decline after that.

Despite steady near-term activity, growth is slowing in the U.S. shale patch, and U.S. crude output is set to peak this year, Kpler noted.

By Charles Kennedy for Oilprice.com

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Wall Street banks are racing this week to slash their oil price forecasts for 2025 and 2026 after OPEC+ threw another curveball at the market this weekend by vowing to continue raising production by more than initially planned.

Commodity strategists and analysts from major U.S. and European investment banks have issued notes with downgraded oil price forecasts for 2025 and 2026 since OPEC+ producers led by Saudi Arabia and Russia agreed on Saturday to raise collective output by 411,000 barrels per day (bpd), nearly triple the volume originally scheduled.

The move follows a similar surge announced for May and signals a sharp reversal from OPEC+ efforts to defend relatively high oil prices.

Saudi Arabia Changes Tack

Saudi Arabia is signaling that it would not tolerate any longer OPEC+ producers regularly busting their quotas while others, such as the Kingdom, stick to their production ceilings per the OPEC+ agreement. Iraq and Kazakhstan have been the OPEC+ members chronically pumping above their quotas, continuously promising to “compensate for previous overproduction,” and continuously failing to do so.

So, OPEC’s top producer and leader of the OPEC+ alliance decided to make it easier for the cheaters to “compensate” and, in the meantime, increase its own production after years of trying to “stabilize the market.” Analysts also say that the Saudis are leading another OPEC+ effort to discipline the U.S. shale industry and force a slowdown in drilling activity and production growth through oil prices lower than the breakevens for new shale wells.

OPEC cited “current healthy oil market fundamentals” to explain its second decision in as many months to bundle three monthly increases into one month, which would result in more than 800,000 bpd of new supply when June ends.

The market appears anything but healthy. Demand may be picking up somewhat due to the lower oil prices, but fears of recessions and muted demand growth due to the U.S. tariff barrage and trade blitzes continue to override oil market sentiment. The small surplus expected later this year has now been revised upwards to more than 1 million bpd of glut at some banks.

Major banks moved to cut their oil price forecasts, seeing a larger-than-expected surplus and weakened oil demand growth.

Banks Take Note

In the case of Goldman Sachs, its commodity strategists slashed their oil price forecast for a third time in one month, following the announcement of another aggressive production hike from OPEC+.

Goldman’s analysts now see Brent Crude prices averaging $60 per barrel this year, down from a previous forecast of $63 a barrel. The average price of the U.S. benchmark, WTI Crude, was now downgraded at Goldman Sachs to $56 for 2025, down from $59 a barrel previously expected.

Next year, Brent is set to average $56 a barrel, down from $58, and WTI is expected at $52, down from $55 per barrel in the previous forecast from mid-April.

“Saturday’s decision increases our confidence that the new baseline size of production increases is likely 0.41mb/d,” Goldman Sachs’ strategists wrote in a note on Sunday.

“The decision likely reflects relatively low inventories and a broader shift to a more long-run equilibrium focused on supporting internal cohesion and on strategically disciplining U.S. shale supply,” the bank’s strategists said.

The Goldman team, led by the head of oil research Daan Struyven, also noted that “Our key conviction remains that high spare capacity and high recession risk skew the risks to oil prices to the downside despite relatively tight spot fundamentals.”

Morgan Stanley also cut its oil price forecasts for the remainder of the year, anticipating a bigger glut. The bank revised down its projection of Brent Crude prices to $62.50 per barrel in the third and fourth quarters of this year, down by $5 per barrel from the previous forecast.

The market glut could reach 1.1 million bpd in the second half of the year, Morgan Stanley reckons. That’s an upward revision of 400,000 bpd from the previous surplus forecast.

“We interpret OPEC+’s communication as an indication that it may unwind its production quota faster altogether,” Morgan Stanley analysts, including Martijn Rats, said in a note carried by Bloomberg.

UK bank Barclays cut its Brent forecast by $4 to $66 per barrel for this year and by $2 to $60 a barrel for next year.

ING also slashed its Brent forecast for the remainder of 2025 – from $68 to $62 per barrel. This leaves the new 2025 average forecast at $65, down from $70 a barrel previously.

“This will change if OPEC+ reverses policy once again or if lower oil prices embolden President Trump to take a more aggressive approach toward several sanctioned oil-producing countries,” said Warren Patterson, Head of Commodities strategy at ING.

“The key to knowing how far the Saudis will take what is starting to look like a price war is the nation’s tolerance for low oil prices over time,” Patterson noted.

By Tsvetana Paraskova for Oilprice.com

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The (USDJPY) price settled on a rise in its recent intraday trading, supported by its trading above EMA50, and under the dominance of a bullish correctional wave on the short-term basis, alongside the bias line, the pair is preparing to attack the current resistance level at 144.00.

On the other hand, we notice the beginning of negative overlapping signals appearance on the (RSI), after reaching overbought levels, which might decelerate the rise and provide chances for bearish correctional rebounds that the price attempt to use it to offload these overbought conditions and gain the required positive momentum to breach the mentioned resistance.

The (USDJPY) price settled on a rise in its recent intraday trading, supported by its trading above EMA50, and under the dominance of a bullish correctional wave on the short-term basis, alongside the bias line, the pair is preparing to attack the current resistance level at 144.00.

On the other hand, we notice the beginning of negative overlapping signals appearance on the (RSI), after reaching overbought levels, which might decelerate the rise and provide chances for bearish correctional rebounds that the price attempt to use it to offload these overbought conditions and gain the required positive momentum to breach the mentioned resistance.

• Silver regains positive traction following the previous day’s pullback from over one-week high.
• The technical setup favors bullish traders and supports prospects for further near-term gains.
• A break below a short-term descending channel support is needed to negate the positive bias.

Silver (XAG/USD) attracts fresh buying during the Asian session on Thursday and reverses a major part of the previous day’s retracement slide from over a one-week high. The white metal climbs to the $33.00 neighborhood in the last hour and seems poised to appreciate further.

From a technical perspective, a descending channel on short-term charts constitutes the formation of a bullish flag against the backdrop of the recent goodish recovery from the $28.45 area, or the year-to-date low touched in April. Moreover, oscillators on daily/hourly charts are holding in positive territory, validating the near-term constructive outlook for the XAG/USD.

However, it will still be prudent to wait for a breakout above the trend-channel hurdle near the $33.20 area before positioning for additional gains. The XAG/USD might then aim to surpass the $33.70 intermediate barrier and reclaim the $34.00 round-figure mark. Some follow-through buying will be seen as a fresh trigger for bulls and pave the way for a further appreciation.

On the flip side, the $32.50-$32.45 area, followed by the overnight swing low, around the $32.25 region, could offer some support to the XAG/USD ahead of the $32.00 mark. The next relevant support is pegged around the $31.60-$31.55 zone, representing the lower end of the aforementioned trend-channel, which, if broken, might shift the near-term bias in favor of bearish traders.

Silver daily chart

• Gold price challenges $3,400 again as US trade talks grab attention.
• The US Dollar returns to the red after the Fed raises concerns over economic uncertainty.  
• Gold price yearns for acceptance above $3,435 for a sustained upside.

The gold price is back on the bids early Thursday, challenging the $3,400 mark amid renewed weakness in the US dollar and a revival of safe-haven demand.

Gold price looks north amid trade and geopolitical risks

Markets remain broadly upbeat due to China’s cut in the Reverse Repo Rate and in anticipation of US President Donald Trump’s expected announcement of a major trade deal. The Wall Street Journal (WSJ) and the New York Times cited that Trump is likely to announce a framework of a trade deal with the UK later in the American morning on Thursday.  

However, the optimism fails to lift the sentiment around the US Dollar (USD) as the US Federal Reserve (Fed) voiced its concerns over the heightened economic uncertainties in the face of Trump’s erratic trade policies.

The Fed kept the federal funds rate unchanged in the range of 4.25% to 4.50% on Wednesday, maintaining a cautious stance on the policy outlook. The Fed’s policy statement read that risks of higher inflation and unemployment had risen, further clouding the US economic outlook.

During the press conference, Fed Chairman Jerome Powell stated that “it isn’t clear whether the economy will continue its steady growth or wilt under mounting uncertainty and a possible spike in inflation,” according to Reuters.

Further, Gold price continues to derive support from safe-haven inflows, courtesy of the ongoing geopolitical tensions in the Middle East and between Russia and Ukraine. Ukraine’s air force reported that Russian aircraft had launched guided bombs on the Sumy region of northern Ukraine in the early hours of Thursday morning. This occurred just a few hours after a three-day ceasefire declared by Russian President Vladimir Putin took effect.

Meanwhile, Oman said on Wednesday that it brokered a truce between Washington and Houthis, saying neither side will target the other. However, Houthi leaders have insisted on social media that they have no intention of ceasing their attacks.

In the Asian sub-continent, Pakistani Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif vowed response after the Indian armed forces early Wednesday carried out missile attacks on nine terror targets in Pakistan and Pakistan-Occupied Kashmir (PoK), Heavy exchanges of artillery fire have been reported along the Line of Control (LoC) dividing Indian- and PoK, according several media outlets.

Amidst heightened trade uncertainties and geopolitical risks, Gold price is likely to remain the go-to safety net for investors. They keenly await the US-Sino trade talks from May 9 to May 12 in Geneva, especially after US President Trump said Wednesday that there is no potential for pulling back 145% tariffs on China.

Any retracement in Gold price due to optimism over potential US trade deals will remain a good dip-buying opportunity as policymakers globally grapple with the impact of Trump’s tariffs. The daily technical setup also remains favourable for Gold buyers in the near term.

Gold price technical analysis: Daily chart

Gold price is poised to retake the channel support (now resistance) after finding buyers once again near $3,360.

The 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) appears bullish, as it remains above the midline near 62, suggesting that further upside remains in the offing.

Gold price must establish a firm foothold above the two-week high of $3,435 for a sustained upside momentum. The next topside target is at the record high of $3,500.  

Further up, the channel support (now resistance) at $3,525 will be on buyers’ radars.

On the downside, the $3,360 is the initial support line, below which the 21-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) at $3,301 will be tested. Deeper declines will challenge the May 2 low of $3,223.

Establishes Higher Daily High and Higher Low

The rally from the April swing low at $2.86 faced a potentially significant resistance zone around Monday’s high at $3.66. There is a range marked by several indicators from $3.72 to $3.74. However, the 50-Day MA has been falling and is now at $3.76, close enough to the initial range to be included. It also offers more useful price levels. The next major hurdle for the bull trend is a daily close above the 50-Day line. Until that happens the expectation is for resistance to continue to be seen up to the 50-Day MA.

Several Indicators Mark Resistance Zone

There is the confluence of several indicators identifying the resistance zone. The range begins with the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement at $3.72. There is then the neckline for a recent head and shoulders topping pattern at $3.74. That price level was confirmed twice as swing lows of the pattern formed in March. Therefore, the neckline has some significance even before the head and shoulders formation is incorporated into the analysis. But there is also an AVWAP level around $3.74. It is anchored on the recent peak.

May Respond to Rise Above $3.76

Since there a several price levels identified close together, an upside breakout through the top of the range would be bullish of course, but more so given the significance of the resistance zone. Furthermore, if it occurred prior to a deeper pullback below $3.42, the bullish implications would strengthen further.

For a look at all of today’s economic events, check out our economic calendar.