The rally from the April swing low at $2.86 faced a potentially significant resistance zone around Monday’s high at $3.66. There is a range marked by several indicators from $3.72 to $3.74. However, the 50-Day MA has been falling and is now at $3.76, close enough to the initial range to be included. It also offers more useful price levels. The next major hurdle for the bull trend is a daily close above the 50-Day line. Until that happens the expectation is for resistance to continue to be seen up to the 50-Day MA.
Several Indicators Mark Resistance Zone
There is the confluence of several indicators identifying the resistance zone. The range begins with the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement at $3.72. There is then the neckline for a recent head and shoulders topping pattern at $3.74. That price level was confirmed twice as swing lows of the pattern formed in March. Therefore, the neckline has some significance even before the head and shoulders formation is incorporated into the analysis. But there is also an AVWAP level around $3.74. It is anchored on the recent peak.
May Respond to Rise Above $3.76
Since there a several price levels identified close together, an upside breakout through the top of the range would be bullish of course, but more so given the significance of the resistance zone. Furthermore, if it occurred prior to a deeper pullback below $3.42, the bullish implications would strengthen further.
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Goldman Sachs on Wednesday hiked its quarterly copper price forecast, citing de-escalation in trade tensions and resilient Chinese copper demand that will likely continue to support prices in the coming months.
“We upgrade our 2Q/3Q price forecast to $9,330/$9,150/t from $8,620/$8,370 previously,” the bank said in a note.
High U.S. copper imports are expected to draw down stocks outside the U.S. for the remainder of the second quarter, tightening the London Metal Exchange’s forward spreads and discouraging new speculative short positions, the bank said.
Goldman Sachs said China’s copper demand has stayed firm in 2025, mostly because of strong exports. As exports start to weaken, the bank expects demand to stay solid in the second quarter, but slow down in the third.
The bank’s baseline forecast is for a significant slowdown in global copper demand in the second half of the year, with an imminent decision on U.S. Section 232 tariffs.
Using the 232 provision, U.S. President Donald Trump in February ordered a probe into possible tariffs on copper imports to rebuild U.S. production of the metal.
However, if the decision is delayed to late 2025, it could keep copper trade flows disrupted and cause a supply crunch outside the U.S. in the second half, especially in China, the bank said.
In the longer term, the bank says the copper market will move into a supply deficit in 2026, driven by strong demand from electrification-related sectors and limited growth in mining.
This should push prices from an expected low of $9,000 a ton in October 2025 to more than $10,500 a ton by the end of 2026, it added.
Benchmark three-month copper HG1! on the LME was trading at $9,438 a metric ton at 1347 GMT, after hitting $9,582, its highest since April 3, in early Asian trading hours.
US-China initial trade talks set to begin next Wednesday, according to Sec Bessent.
The Federal Reserve is widely anticipated to keep interest rates on hold.
XAU/USD consolidates below $3,400 as market players await the Fed’s decision.
Gold consolidates just ahead of the $3,400 mark on Wednesday, unchanged on a daily basis as investors await the United States (US) Federal Reserve (Fed) monetary policy decision. The central bank is widely anticipated to keep interest rates on hold, as uncertainty about President Donald Trump’s tariffs weighs on US policymakers.
The US Dollar (USD) has been confined to familiar levels throughout the day, as investors assess different news. On the one hand, headlines indicated that the US and Chinese trade teams will meet in the upcoming days to de-escalate tensions. US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent anticipated initial talks would begin on Saturday, clarifying that those would not be advanced discussions.
On the other hand, stocks trade with a sour tone amid big losses in the tech sector, adding to the market’s caution.
With no action expected from the Federal Reserve (Fed), the focus will be on the following press conference by Chairman Jerome Powell. Powell is expected to face questions on the central bank’s independence and his relationship with President Trump, beyond those related to the future of monetary policy.
XAU/USD short-term technical outlook
From a technical point of view, the daily chart for the XAU/USD pair shows it managed to post a higher high for the week before retreating. The risk remains skewed to the upside, although another corrective leg lower remains in the picture. In the mentioned chart, the bright metal keeps developing well above a bullish 20 Simple Moving Average (SMA) currently at $3,297.20, while the 100 and 200 SMAs maintain their upward slopes far below the shorter one. However, technical indicators head south, holding within positive levels but suggesting buyers have paused.
In the near term, and according to the 4-hour chart, the XAU/USD offers a neutral-to-bullish stance. The pair trades well above all its moving averages, with the 20 SMA advancing above an also bullish 100 SMA. Additionally, technical indicators consolidate within positive levels, with the Momentum indicator heading marginally lower, not enough to confirm an upcoming slide.
The GBPJPY pair provided new negative trading, attempting to break the support of the sideways triangle at 190.85 level, but it bounced again towards 191.10, keeping its stability below the moving average 55.
While providing negative momentum by stochastic approach from 20 level makes us wait for confirming breaking the current support, which allows it to activate the negative attack, which might target 189.90 level reaching the next target at 189.20.
The expected trading range for today is between 189.90 and 191.50
Trend forecast: Bearish
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Goldman Sachs on Wednesday hiked its quarterly copper price forecast, citing de-escalation in trade tensions and resilient Chinese copper demand that will likely continue to support price in the coming months.
“We upgrade our 2Q/3Q price forecast to $9,330/$9,150/t from $8,620/$8,370 previously,” the bank said in a note.
Silver price soars to near $32.60 amid weakness in the US Dollar.
The Fed is almost certain to keep interest rates steady on Wednesday.
US-China trade uncertainty keeps limiting the downside in the Silver price.
Silver price (XAG/USD) is rallying to near $32.60 during North American trading hours on Monday. The white metal strengthens as the US Dollar (USD) slumps at the start of the week, with the Federal Reserve’s (Fed) monetary policy meeting in focus. Technically, a decline in the US Dollar makes investment in the Silver price an attractive bet for investors.
The US Dollar Index (DXY), which tracks the Greenback’s value against six major currencies, is down almost 0.5% at around 99.50.
According to the CME Fedwatch tool, traders are almost certain that the central bank will leave interest rates steady on Wednesday. The tool also shows that the probability for the Fed to lower borrowing rates in June has dropped to 32% from 66% seen a week ago. Traders have pared Fed dovish bets for the June meeting after the release of the better-than-projected United States (US) Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) data for April.
Theoretically, a high-interest-rate environment bodes poorly for non-yielding assets, such as Silver.
Meanwhile, diminishing hopes of a US-China trade war resolution in the near term have also supported the Silver price. The demand for safe-haven assets, such as Silver, increases amid heightening geopolitical tensions.
US President Donald Trump said on Sunday that he is not going to speak with Chinese President Xi Jinping this week, but expressed willingness to lower tariffs on China. “At some point, I’m going to lower them, because otherwise, you could never do business with them, and they want to do business very much,” Trump said.
On the economic front, US ISM Services PMI data for April has come in better than expected. The Services PMI expanded at a faster pace to 51.6 from 50.8 in March and estimates of 50.6.
Silver technical analysis
Silver price struggles to revisit an over three-week high around $33.70. The near-term outlook of the white metal has become uncertain as it falls below the 20-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA), which trades around $32.65.
The 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) falls below 50.00 after failing to break above 60.00, indicating that investors are not bullish anymore.
Looking up, the March 28 high of $34.60 will act as key resistance for the metal. On the downside, the April 11 low of $30.90 will be the key support zone.
Silver daily chart
Silver FAQs
Silver is a precious metal highly traded among investors. It has been historically used as a store of value and a medium of exchange. Although less popular than Gold, traders may turn to Silver to diversify their investment portfolio, for its intrinsic value or as a potential hedge during high-inflation periods. Investors can buy physical Silver, in coins or in bars, or trade it through vehicles such as Exchange Traded Funds, which track its price on international markets.
Silver prices can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can make Silver price escalate due to its safe-haven status, although to a lesser extent than Gold’s. As a yieldless asset, Silver tends to rise with lower interest rates. Its moves also depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAG/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Silver at bay, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to propel prices up. Other factors such as investment demand, mining supply – Silver is much more abundant than Gold – and recycling rates can also affect prices.
Silver is widely used in industry, particularly in sectors such as electronics or solar energy, as it has one of the highest electric conductivity of all metals – more than Copper and Gold. A surge in demand can increase prices, while a decline tends to lower them. Dynamics in the US, Chinese and Indian economies can also contribute to price swings: for the US and particularly China, their big industrial sectors use Silver in various processes; in India, consumers’ demand for the precious metal for jewellery also plays a key role in setting prices.
Silver prices tend to follow Gold’s moves. When Gold prices rise, Silver typically follows suit, as their status as safe-haven assets is similar. The Gold/Silver ratio, which shows the number of ounces of Silver needed to equal the value of one ounce of Gold, may help to determine the relative valuation between both metals. Some investors may consider a high ratio as an indicator that Silver is undervalued, or Gold is overvalued. On the contrary, a low ratio might suggest that Gold is undervalued relative to Silver.
Gold price pulls back below $3,400 in the lead-up to the Fed showdown.
The US Dollar bumps up on optimism over US-China trade talks.
Gold price appears a ‘buy-the-dips’ trade on the Fed verdict.
Gold price has come under intense selling pressure early Wednesday, correcting sharply from two-week highs of $3,435. Renewed optimism over the upcoming US-China trade talks and profit-taking ahead of the US Federal Reserve (Fed) policy announcements.
Gold price pulls back before the next big move higher
Late Tuesday, the White House announced that US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent and US Trade Representative (USTR) Jamieson Greer will travel to Geneva, Switzerland, to attend trade talks with Chinese Vice Premier He Lifeng. The trade talks will be held from May 9 to 12 in an effort to de-escalate a trade war between the world’s two biggest economies.
Asian traders hit their desks on Wednesday and reacted positively to this overnight news, reducing the safe-haven flows and the demand for the traditional store of value, the Gold price. The US Dollar (USD) firms up with US-China trade optimism easing concerns over economic growth.
Meanwhile, traders resort to taking profits off the table after the latest Gold price rally, repositioning ahead of the critical Fed verdict and Chairman Jerome Powell’s press conference. As a no-rate-change decision is fully priced in, Powell’s tone during the presser will hold the key to altering markets’ expectations of interest rate cuts this year.
Following robust US labor market data and business PMIs, markets have pared bets for a June rate cut, with Goldman Sachs and Barclays moving their rate calls to July from June.
Powell will likely stick to the Fed’s cautious rhetoric, hinting at a wait-and-see approach amid a lack of clarity on the impact of US tariffs. In case he acknowledges resilience in the economy, it could be read as a hawkish shift in the Fed’s policy stance, which could push back against June rate cut bets and fuel a fresh leg up in the Greenback. As a result, Gold price could extend its correction from two-week highs.
On the other hand, Gold price could witness a fresh upswing if the Fed signals a June rate cut, expressing concerns on the economic outlook.
In the meantime, the Gold price downside could remain cushioned by the escalating geopolitical tensions globally. Israel’s security Cabinet unanimously approved a plan to widen the military offensive in Gaza. Meanwhile, a Kremlin spokesman said Russia will stick to its plans for a unilaterally-imposed ceasefire between 8 and 11 May. Still, he warned that an appropriate response will be given immediately if Ukraine does not also halt the fire.
Pakistan has vowed to a strong retaliation after the Indian armed forces early Wednesday carried out missile attacks on nine terror targets in Pakistan and Pakistan-Occupied Kashmir (PoK), in response to the terror attack in Pahalgam in Jammu & Kashmir.
Gold price technical analysis: Daily chart
Gold price faced rejection below the channel support (now resistance), retreating sharply toward the initial support of the $3,350 psychological barrier.
The 21-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) at $3,283 will be the following line of defense for Gold buyers. Deeper declines will challenge the May 2 low of $3,223.
However, the 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) holds above the midline near 61.50, suggesting that any dip will likely be bought in.
Gold price must find a firm foothold above the two-week high of $3,435 to take on the upside. The next topside target is at the channel support (now resistance) at $3,494, where the record high will also come into play.
Fed FAQs
Monetary policy in the US is shaped by the Federal Reserve (Fed). The Fed has two mandates: to achieve price stability and foster full employment. Its primary tool to achieve these goals is by adjusting interest rates.
When prices are rising too quickly and inflation is above the Fed’s 2% target, it raises interest rates, increasing borrowing costs throughout the economy. This results in a stronger US Dollar (USD) as it makes the US a more attractive place for international investors to park their money.
When inflation falls below 2% or the Unemployment Rate is too high, the Fed may lower interest rates to encourage borrowing, which weighs on the Greenback.
The Federal Reserve (Fed) holds eight policy meetings a year, where the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) assesses economic conditions and makes monetary policy decisions.
The FOMC is attended by twelve Fed officials – the seven members of the Board of Governors, the president of the Federal Reserve Bank of New York, and four of the remaining eleven regional Reserve Bank presidents, who serve one-year terms on a rotating basis.
In extreme situations, the Federal Reserve may resort to a policy named Quantitative Easing (QE). QE is the process by which the Fed substantially increases the flow of credit in a stuck financial system.
It is a non-standard policy measure used during crises or when inflation is extremely low. It was the Fed’s weapon of choice during the Great Financial Crisis in 2008. It involves the Fed printing more Dollars and using them to buy high grade bonds from financial institutions. QE usually weakens the US Dollar.
Quantitative tightening (QT) is the reverse process of QE, whereby the Federal Reserve stops buying bonds from financial institutions and does not reinvest the principal from the bonds it holds maturing, to purchase new bonds. It is usually positive for the value of the US Dollar.
The GBPJPY pair provided new negative trading, attempting to break the support of the sideways triangle at 190.85 level, but it bounced again towards 191.10, keeping its stability below the moving average 55.
While providing negative momentum by stochastic approach from 20 level makes us wait for confirming breaking the current support, which allows it to activate the negative attack, which might target 189.90 level reaching the next target at 189.20.
The expected trading range for today is between 189.90 and 191.50
Trend forecast: Bearish
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Copper price reached the initial positive target by reaching $4.7400 level, which forces it to form sideways fluctuated moves, waiting for the extra positive momentum from the main indicators, to confirm renewing the bullish attempts.
Reminding you that the stability of the moving average 55 near the initial support at $4.5400 level supports the attempts of renewing the bullish attempts, which might target $4.8200 level, then attempts to press on the barrier at $4.9000.
The expected trading range for today is between $4.6000 and $4.8100
Trend forecast: Bullish
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Full coverage of all major forex currency pairs
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Hopes the US will reach trade deals with other nations partially lifted the market mood.
Market players await the Federal Reserve’s monetary policy decision scheduled for Wednesday.
XAU/USD is technically bullish and poised to revisit the $3,500 mark.
Spot Gold trades above the $3,400 mark on Tuesday, helped by broad US Dollar’s (USD) weakness and a sour market mood. Risk-off hit during European trading hours amid political noise in Germany. Friedrich Merz, the conservative leader who won the election over two months ago, was unable to secure a majority in parliament to become chancellor in a first round of voting, finally succeeding in a second attempt.
Wall Street started the day with a soft tone, but managed to trim part of its intraday losses mid-American afternoon, following comments from United States (US) President Donald Trump regarding progress in trade deals. In a joint press conference with Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney, Trump said he wants to be friends with Canada, and anticipates a big announcement coming in the next few days, following a “very friendly conversation.”
Trump also referred to potential trade deals with other nations and upcoming talks with China. However, his words lacked substance, and US indexes keep trading in the red at the time of writing.
Adding to the dismal sentiment, market players are in a wait-and-see mode ahead of the Federal Reserve (Fed) monetary policy announcement on Wednesday. The Fed is widely anticipated to keep the benchmark interest rate on hold amid uncertainty about the impact of Trump’s levies on the economy. Policymakers are also concerned tariffs could put upward pressure on inflation, and hence, refuse to trim interest rates, something that “frustrated” President Trump recently, and ended up putting at doubt Fed’s independence.
XAU/USD short-term technical outlook
The daily chart for the XAU/USD pair shows it is sharply up for a second consecutive day, and on its way to re-test the record high at $3,500.14. The pair develops well above a bullish 20 Simple Moving Average (SMA) currently at $3,275.80, while the 100 and 200 SMAs gain upward traction far below the shorter one. At the same time, technical indicators head firmly higher after bouncing from around their midlines, anticipating higher highs ahead.
In the near term, and according to the 4-hour chart, Gold is on its way to extend its advance. The pair trades well above all its moving averages, with the 20 SMA gaining upward traction and about to cross above the 100 SMA. Even further, the XAU/USD pair pressures intraday highs in the $3,410 region, while technical indicators maintain their bullish slopes within overbought levels.
