The U.S. dollar index slipped 0.3%, making gold cheaper for holders of other currencies. This decline followed weaker-than-expected U.S. GDP data, which intensified bets on upcoming Fed rate cuts. Carlo Alberto De Casa, an external analyst at Swissquote, said that the slowing dollar is reinforcing gold’s appeal, especially as inflation and geopolitical tensions remain in play.

Fed Meeting Eyed for Rate Clarity

While the Federal Reserve is expected to keep rates unchanged at Wednesday’s meeting, traders will be closely watching the updated economic projections and speeches from Fed officials for clues on the timing and scale of potential rate cuts. Political pressure continues, with President Trump reiterating his call for the Fed to ease monetary policy, though confirming Jerome Powell will remain Fed Chair through 2026.

Supportive Backdrop for Gold Bulls

Gold continues to benefit from its role as a non-yielding hedge during periods of inflation risk and policy uncertainty. Trump’s remarks on active trade talks with multiple countries, including China, add another layer of support for gold’s safe-haven demand.

Goldman Sachs remains bullish, pointing to strong central bank gold purchases, a slowdown in Chinese solar production, and elevated U.S. recession risk as factors likely to keep gold outperforming silver in the near term.

Gold Prices Forecast: Bullish Momentum Toward $3500

The EURJPY pair is forced to form a bearish correctional rebound this morning, affected by the stability of the resistance at 164.80, suffering clear losses by its approach from the initial support at 163.25 level.

Providing positive momentum by stochastic might increase the efficiency of the negative track in the current period, to expect reaching below the initial support and begin targeting several negative stations by reaching 162.45 and 161.90, while the price rally above the mentioned resistance will reinforce the chances for regaining the bullish bias, to expect targeting 165.25 level, reaching the next target at 166.40.

The expected trading range for today is between 162.45 and 164.10

Trend forecast: Bearish

No change on Copper price’s temporary sideways trading, due to its confinement between the extra barrier at $4.6600, while the moving average 55 keeps forming a new support by its fluctuation near $4.5400, and stochastic attempt to provide positive momentum might assist delaying the negative trading in the current trading, to increase the chances for compensating the previous losses, by its rally above the current barrier and targeting 61.8%Fibonacci correction level at $4.8200.

Reaching below the support and providing a negative close will support the continuation of the suggested negativity, reminding you that the negative stations stability near $4.4500 and $4.3100 level.

The expected trading range for today is between $4.5300 and $4.6600

Trend forecast: Sideways

Barclays has cut its Brent crude price outlook, citing faster-than-expected output hikes by OPEC+. The bank now sees Brent averaging $66 per barrel in 2025 (down $4) and $60 in 2026 (down $2).

Key takeaways:

• OPEC+ ramped up output by 411,000 bpd in June, its second consecutive month of aggressive supply increases.

• Saudi Arabia is pressuring under-compliant members like Iraq and Kazakhstan to meet quotas by accelerating production growth.

• Barclays expects OPEC+ to fully unwind its voluntary cuts by October 2025 — a year earlier than previously projected.

• The bank also downgraded U.S. crude production forecasts, seeing output falling by 100,000 bpd in 2025 and 150,000 bpd in 2026.

• Brent crude dropped over $2 in early Monday trade, falling to $59.20 as of 0250 GMT.

Barclays says the faster supply growth could modestly loosen global oil market balances, adding pressure to prices.

Earlier:

***

For interest, and noting this is not what the market is thinking right now, some analysts are arguing that OPEC’s decision to increase oil production is not overly bearish, the main reason being that most of the increase is in the production ceiling, not
production … and is only on paper. It, in effect, legitimises overproduction
that is already in the market.

***

Oil update:

• Gold price drifts higher to around $3,245 in Monday’s early Asian session. 
• US tariff uncertainty boosts the safe-haven flows, supporting the Gold price. 
• US NFP rose by 177K in April vs. 130K expected. 

The Gold price (XAU/USD) trades in positive territory near $3,245 during the early Asian session on Monday. The renewed concerns over the US recession and US-China trade relations provide some support to safe-haven assets like Gold. The US ISM Services Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) for April will be in the spotlight later on Monday. 

While the Chinese Commerce Ministry indicated Beijing was considering an offer from the US to hold talks over US President Donald Trump’s 145% tariffs, the two sides still seem far apart. Trump avoided answering the question if there will be trade deals this week, saying there ‘could’ be. The uncertainty surrounding tariff boosts the safe-haven flows, benefiting the precious metal. 

The rising bets that the Fed will cut its interest rate in June raise non-yielding bullion’s appeal. “The labor report leaves little doubt that the FOMC will keep rates on hold this week, and the bar for cutting is now even higher for June,” said Michael Feroli, head of U.S. economics at JPMorgan.

Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) in the United States (US) rose by 177K in April, according to the US Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) on Friday. This figure followed the 185K increase (revised from 228K) seen in March and came in above the market consensus of 130K. Additionally, the Unemployment Rate remained unchanged at 4.2% in April, as expected, while the Average Hourly Earnings held steady at 3.8% YoY in the same reported period.

On the other hand, improved market sentiment and a risk-on trade could drag the yellow metal lower and lead to some profit-taking in Gold’s safe-haven. Trump eased tensions with the US Fed, saying that he will not remove Jerome Powell as Fed Board Chairman before his term ends in May 2026. Nonetheless, Trump reiterated his belief that the Fed should cut interest rates at some point

Crude oil markets took a fresh hit this weekend after OPEC+ stunned traders by announcing a larger-than-expected output increase for June. In a virtual meeting on Saturday, key producers led by Saudi Arabia and Russia agreed to raise collective output by 411,000 barrels per day (bpd), nearly triple the volume originally scheduled.

The move follows a similar surge announced for May and signals a sharp reversal from OPEC+ efforts to defend oil prices. Instead, Riyadh appears to be embracing a low-price strategy, aiming to discipline overproducing members like Kazakhstan and Iraq. Both nations have repeatedly exceeded their quotas, with Kazakhstan surpassing its March target by 422,000 bpd.

“OPEC+ has just thrown a bombshell to the oil market,” Jorge Leon of Rystad Energy told Bloomberg. “With this move, Saudi Arabia is seeking to punish lack of compliance and also ingratiate itself with President Trump.”

President Donald Trump has loudly demanded lower oil prices, and with fresh tariffs rattling global markets, OPEC+ appears to be aligning with Washington’s inflation-fighting agenda. Trump is set to visit the Middle East this month, and closer energy cooperation may be on the table.

Oil prices had already been under pressure, with Brent trading near $61 a barrel on Friday, a four-year low. The OPEC+ decision sent prices tumbling another 6%, compounding bearish sentiment triggered by trade war fears and weakening economic data.

Goldman Sachs responded by slashing its December 2025 oil forecast by $5 to $66 for Brent and $62 for WTI, citing both rising OPEC+ supply and Trump’s tariff barrage. “We no longer forecast a price range,” Goldman said, “because price volatility is likely to stay elevated on higher recession risk.”

Standard Chartered joined the chorus of bearish revisions, slashing its 2025 Brent forecast by $16 to $61 a barrel, and trimming its 2026 outlook to $78. The bank warned that the Trump administration’s tariff-heavy approach is fueling recession fears and eroding market confidence—especially after a downbeat U.S. economic report this week.

JPMorgan also raised its global recession odds to 60% for the year, while S&P Global warned that oil demand growth could drop by as much as 500,000 bpd.

OPEC+ justified the output hike by citing “continuing healthy market fundamentals,” though many see the move as an effort to assert market share and enforce compliance. Analysts like Helima Croft argue that by opening the taps, Saudi Arabia is reasserting control over rogue members while signaling readiness to let prices fall to discipline the market.

The eight members behind the increase—Saudi Arabia, Russia, Iraq, the UAE, Kuwait, Kazakhstan, Algeria, and Oman—will reassess in June. But for now, the message is clear: OPEC+ is no longer defending high prices, and oil markets should prepare for more volatility ahead.

By Tom Kool for Oilprice.com

More Top Reads From Oilprice.com

At the same time, U.S. economic signals painted a mixed picture: GDP shrank by 0.3% in Q1 and core PCE was flat in March, while jobless claims rose to 241,000. Yet April’s jobs report offered just enough resilience to keep the Fed on the sidelines for now, limiting gold’s near-term upside.

Fed in Focus with Powell Set to Speak on Wednesday

This week, all attention turns to the Federal Reserve. The FOMC is expected to hold rates steady on Wednesday, but Chair Powell’s press conference may carry outsized impact. Political pressure has intensified, with President Trump and Treasury Secretary Bessent openly criticizing the Fed and urging preemptive cuts. However, with Friday’s jobs report showing no clear labor market deterioration, Powell may strike a cautious tone—potentially reinforcing higher-for-longer rate expectations unless inflation or employment data worsen.

Gold Prices Forecast: Bearish Near-Term Bias as Fed Holds the Line

Gold enters the week with a bearish tilt. A firmer dollar, muted physical demand, and reduced expectations for near-term Fed cuts are all headwinds. Unless Powell surprises with dovish guidance, bullion is likely to remain under pressure.

The broader macro picture—rising fiscal stress, policy uncertainty, and central bank accumulation—still supports long-term upside. But near-term, a lack of fresh catalysts favors sellers unless Fed rhetoric or incoming data reignites rate cut speculation. Traders should brace for volatility around Wednesday’s FOMC announcement and Powell’s post-meeting remarks.

More Information in our Economic Calendar.

West Texas Intermediate (WTI) Oil price advances on Friday, early in the European session. WTI trades at $59.21 per barrel, up from Thursday’s close at $58.71.
Brent Oil Exchange Rate (Brent crude) is also up, advancing from the $61.79 price posted on Thursday, and trading at $62.30.

New Weekly Breakout Triggers

A weekly closing price above $3.61 will leave natural gas poised to rise into the next higher potential resistance zone. It is marked by the confluence of several indicators from $3.72 to $3.80. The 61.8% Fibonacci retracement target is at $3.72 and is followed by the neckline of a head and shoulders top formation at $3.73. There is an AVWAP level from the trend high $3.75 and further up is the 50-Day MA at $3.80. Given the potential significance of the 50-Day line, it marks the highest potential target for the current advance. But if it exceeded to the upside, the 78.6% Fibonacci retracement at $3.95 becomes a higher target.

Demand Improving

Natural gas is showing improving demand given the three-week breakout that triggered today and the likely strong weekly closing price, near the highs of the week. A one-week bullish reversal triggered earlier this week, and a strong weekly closing price would show buyers remained in charge heading into the weekend.

That strength could carry over into next week. Since the recent low of $2.86 established a higher swing low and it occurred at a recognized potential support area, the recent bearish correction should be complete, leaving natural gas in a position to further progress its long-term uptrend. Therefore, surprises may be on the upside rather than the downside.

Head and Shoulders Top Resistance Zone

Of course, natural gas is rising into a large potential resistance zone highlighted by the head and shoulders topping pattern. But it also advancing from a higher swing low near the lower end of a large rising parallel trend channel. The recent swing low established a higher slope for the trend, marked by a rising dashed line. A reversal from the lows of the channel suggests the possibility of an eventual advance to the top channel line.

For a look at all of today’s economic events, check out our economic calendar.