Copper price began activating with the positivity of the main indicators, forming some of the bullish waves, to settle above $4.660 level, attempting to regain the bullish attempts, and the stability of the moving average 55 near the support at $4.5400 reinforces the chances for targeting positive stations, to wait to reach $4.7300, then repeating the pressure on %61.8 Fibonacci correction level near $4.8200.

Noting that reaching below the mentioned support and providing negative closes below it, will assist to confirm the negative scenario again, to expect suffering several losses by reaching $4.4500 and $4.3100.

The expected trading range for today is between $4.5900 and $4.7300

Trend forecast: Bullish

• Silver price jumps to near $33.00 as Trump has threatened to announce tariffs on pharmaceutical imports.
• China has stated that trade talks would begin only after the US reduces additional tariffs, which currently stand at 145%.
• The Fed is expected to leave interest rates steady on Wednesday.

Silver price (XAG/USD) surges to near $33.00 during European trading hours on Tuesday. The white metal strengthens as demand for safe-haven assets increasez after United States (US) President Donald Trump threatened to impose tariffs on pharmaceuticals.

On Monday, US President Trump signaled that he intends to reduce reliance on pharmaceutical imports and will announce tariffs on them in two weeks. Trump signed orders to reduce the time lag for approval of new pharma plants and instructed the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) to accelerate the construction of new manufacturing facilities. 

Meanwhile, persistent uncertainty over US-China trade talks continues to support the demand for safe-haven assets, such as Silver. Both nations are trading at a very high level of tariffs, dampening the operating margins of businesses. The US has imposed 145% tariffs on imports from China, while the latter is taking 125% import duty. Washington has signaled that these levels of tariffs are not sustainable, but it wants Beijing to initiate trade talks before lowering import duties. However, Beijing has clarified that it will come to the table for trade negotiations only after the US trims additional levies.

Additionally, the US Dollar’s underperformance ahead of the Federal Reserve’s (Fed) monetary policy decision on Wednesday has also supported the Silver price. The US Dollar Index (DXY), which tracks the Greenback’s value against six major currencies, trades lower around 99.60. Technically, a lower US Dollar makes the Silver price an attractive bet for investors.

According to the CME FedWatch tool, traders have fully priced in that the Fed will leave interest rates steady in the range of 4.25%-4.50% for the third straight meeting in a row.

The scenario of the Fed maintaining interest rates bodes poorly for non-yielding assets, such as Silver.

“Gold is holding firm as a hedge against uncertainty—both economic and geopolitical,” said a commodities strategist at ING.

The broader macro backdrop remains mixed. Although U.S. economic data has reduced immediate recession fears, traders are still pricing in volatility around the Fed’s tone on interest rates.

Silver Trades at $33.10, Tracks Gold’s Strength

Silver (XAG/USD) is also benefitting from the risk-off tone, trading at $33.10 after reaching a session high of $33.12. The metal continues to mirror gold’s price trajectory, supported by technical strength and safe-haven flows.

Both metals are responding to a confluence of forces: easing fears of an imminent U.S. recession, persistent geopolitical tensions, and uncertainty around central bank policy.

ISM and Jobs Data Ease Recession Fears, but Fed Still in Focus

Economic data from the U.S. has shown improvement. The Institute for Supply Management (ISM) reported its services PMI rose to 51.6 in April, up from 50.8 in March, indicating steady expansion. Meanwhile, last week’s employment report revealed stronger-than-expected job growth, adding to optimism around the U.S. economy.

Still, the market remains cautious. “While the data points are supportive of growth, uncertainty around inflation and the Fed’s next steps keeps investors defensive,” said a senior economist at Capital Economics.

Despite the stability of the GBPJPY pair above the sideways triangle’s support at 190.85, but the continuation of the main indicators’ negative momentum, as the moving average 55 forms an extra barrier at 191.70, besides stochastic reach to 50 level, these factors support the chances for activating the negative attack, to expect reaching near 189.90, breaking this obstacle will extend the losses directly to 189.20 and 188.60.

While regaining the bullish bias requires forming strong bullish waves, to breach the resistance at 193.35, to confirm its readiness to achieve new gains that might begin at 194.60.

The expected trading range for today is between 189.90 and 191.75

Trend forecast: Bearish

Platinum price remains affected by the contradiction between the main indicators, which forces it to delay the negative attack by its repeated fluctuation above the extra support at $950.00, achieving some gains by reaching $973.00.

Reminding you that the stability of the price below $983.00 level, will increase the chances for renewing the negative trading in the current trading, to keep waiting for attacking the support at $950.00, while surpassing the barrier will cancel the negative suggestion, to open the way towards activating the bullish rally, which might target $1000.00 level initially.

The expected trading range for today is between $950.00 and $983.00

Trend forecast: Fluctuated within the bearish track

• Gold price extends the recovery rally toward $3,400 early Tuesday.
• The US Dollar stays defensive amid Asian FX woes and Fed speculation.  
• Technically, the path of least resistance appears north for Gold price.

Gold price extends its recovery rally into the second straight day on Tuesday as buyers appear unstoppable amid a bearish sentiment around the US Dollar (USD) and escalating geopolitical tensions in the Middle East.

Gold price keeps pushing higher on safe-haven flows

Despite renewed optimism of the US reaching trade deals with some of its trading partners as early as this week, US President Donald Trump’s erratic trade policies continue to unnerve markets, allowing Gold price to recover lost ground.

Trump said late Monday that he would announce pharmaceutical tariffs in the next two weeks after signing an executive order to incentivize drug manufacturing in the United States (US).

Additionally, the Asian forex exchange chaos also keeps the haven demand for the precious metal alive and kicking. Markets are speculating that some of the Asian central banks are planning to revalue their currencies to shield against the impact of the US tariffs.

In this regard, the Taiwan Dollar (TWD) leapt 8% against the USD on Monday, contributing to the Greenback’s renewed downside. Earlier on, the Hong Kong central bank sold the local currency to restrain it from strengthening against the USD.

Furthermore, escalating geopolitical tensions between Israel and Yemeni Houthi rebels and Russia-Ukraine continue to act as a tailwind for the traditional store of value Gold price. In the latest developments, Russian officials said that Ukraine launched drones at Moscow for the second night in a row, forcing the closure of the capital’s three major airports. Adding to it, they reported that Ukrainian forces were trying to advance in Russia’s western region Kursk.

Meanwhile, “Israel, reportedly in coordination with the US, launched airstrikes on Yemen’s Hodeidah port in response to Houthi rebel’s ballistic missile attack that hit Ben Gurion International Airport on Sunday,” FXStreet’s Analyst Haresh Menghani said.

Therefore, Gold price seems to remain in a constructive space heading into the two-day US Federal Reserve (Fed) policy meeting starting later on Tuesday. Commenting on the upcoming Fed event, Nick Timiraos, the Wall Street Journal’s Fed whisperer, noted that the Fed “prepares for difficult judgments and emerging divisions regarding when to cut interest rates.”

Gold optimists shrugged off easing bets of a June interest rate cut amid an improving economic outlook, as trade headlines and geopolitics dominate, in anticipation of the Fed rate call and Chair Jerome Powell’s comments.

Data showed on Monday that the Institute for Supply Management’s (ISM) Services PMI Index rose to 51.6 from 50.8 in March. Steve Miller, chair of the ISM services survey, said, “April change in indexes was a reversal of March’s direction,” noting rises in new orders, employment, and supplier deliveries indices.

Gold price technical analysis: Daily chart

Gold price holds the bounce from the critical 21-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) support, now at $3,260.

The 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) holds firm above the midline near 62, suggesting that there is more room to the upside.

The latest leg higher needs acceptance above the $3,400 barrier for Gold buyers to flex their muscles toward the channel support (now resistance) at $3,467.

Further up, the record high of $3,500 will come into play.

On the flip side, the immediate support is seen at $3,300 on a pullback, below which the 21-day SMA at $3,260 will be challenged again.

A failure to defend the latter will fuel a fresh downside move toward the $3,150 psychological level.

Morgan Stanley joined other major investment banks in slashing oil price forecasts amid expectations of a larger market surplus later this year as OPEC+ plans to raise output much more than previously expected.

Morgan Stanley cut its oil price forecasts for the remainder of the year, anticipating a bigger glut. The bank revised down its projection of Brent Crude prices to $62.50 per barrel in the third and fourth quarters of this year, down by $5 per barrel from the previous forecast.

The market glut could reach 1.1 million barrels per day (bpd) in the second half of the year, Morgan Stanley reckons. That’s an upward revision of 400,000 bpd from the previous surplus forecast.

“We interpret OPEC+’s communication as an indication that it may unwind its production quota faster altogether,” Morgan Stanley analysts, including Martijn Rats, said in a note carried by Bloomberg.

The bank sees much looser market balances now that OPEC+ plans to add more supply than it had guided just two months ago.

In an online meeting on Saturday, key OPEC+ producers led by Saudi Arabia and Russia agreed to raise collective output by 411,000 barrels per day (bpd), nearly triple the volume originally scheduled.

The move follows a similar surge announced for May and signals a sharp reversal from OPEC+ efforts to defend oil prices.

Following the announcement of another aggressive production hike, Goldman Sachs cut – again – its average oil price forecasts this year and next.

Goldman’s analysts now see Brent Crude prices averaging $60 per barrel this year, down from a previous forecast of $63 a barrel. The average price of the U.S. benchmark, WTI Crude, was now downgraded at Goldman Sachs to $56 for 2025, down from $59 a barrel previously expected.

Next year, Brent is set to average $56 a barrel, down from $58, and WTI is expected at $52, down from $55 per barrel in the previous forecast from mid-April, according to Goldman Sachs.

By Charles Kennedy for Oilprice.com

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XAU/USD Current price: $3,311.12

• The US April ISM Services PMI came in much better than expected, at 51.6.
• US Treasury Secretary Bessent said trade deals with different nations could be announced this week.
• XAU/USD recovered the $3,300 mark and could extend gains in the upcoming sessions.

Gold turned higher on Monday, recovering the $3,300 mark and posting an intraday high of $3,328.94 early in the American session amid broad US Dollar (USD) weakness. Despite encouraging comments from United States (US) President Donald Trump regarding progress in trade talks with China, financial markets remained cautiously optimistic throughout the first half of the day.

Demand for the USD remained subdued, yet better-than-anticipated data gave the Greenback a near-term impulse after Wall Street’s opening. The April ISM Services Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) beat expectations of 50.4, printing at 51.6 and improving from the 50.8 posted in March.

Meanwhile, comments from US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent also backed the USD. Bessent said we could see “substantial progress” on trade with China in the upcoming weeks while announcing good trade proposals from other trading partners. He also anticipated that some trade deals could be announced as soon as this week.

Finally, it’s worth adding that the US Federal Reserve (Fed) will announce its decision on monetary policy on Wednesday. The central bank is widely anticipated to keep interest rates on hold, with the focus on Chairman Jerome Powell’s words on the near-term future of monetary policy.

XAU/USD short-term technical outlook

The daily chart for the XAU/USD pair shows that bulls hold the grip. After last week’s slide, the pair managed to bounce from around a bullish 20 Simple Moving Average (SMA), providing support at around $3,253.45. The 100 and 200 SMAs maintain their bullish slopes far below the shorter one, aligning with the upward trend. Finally, technical indicators bounced from around their midlines, currently gaining upward traction within positive levels, in line with higher highs for the week.

The near-term picture shows the risk skews to the upside, although the positive momentum receded. In the 4-hour chart, technical indicators have turned flat near their intraday peaks well above their midlines. At the same time, XAU/USD develops above all its moving averages, with the 20 SMA losing its bearish momentum after crossing below a still bullish 100 SMA.

Support levels: 3,290.10 3,273.15 3,258.60/

Resistance levels: 3,329.90 3,352.80 3,370.55

Is Storage Still a Drag or Already Priced In?

Traders are digesting last week’s bearish-leaning EIA storage report, which showed a 107 Bcf injection—nearly double the five-year average. While the headline figure was heavy, it came in slightly below top-end expectations and followed a stretch of mild weather. As a result, much of the bearish sentiment appears priced in. More importantly, regional inventory deficits remain stark, with the East and Midwest hubs showing year-over-year deficits of 21.7% and 24.4%, respectively. These regional shortfalls help explain why prices have found support despite a seasonally soft backdrop.

Will Weather Continue to Cap Upside Potential?

Mild spring temperatures are expected to dominate U.S. weather patterns from May 1–7, with most regions seeing highs between 60°F and 80°F. Cooling demand will be limited to the Southern tier, where some 90s are forecast, while minor heating demand may emerge in parts of the Midwest. Still, the lack of extreme conditions keeps a lid on residential and commercial gas use, muting any aggressive upward price momentum in the short term.

Export Demand and Supply Risks Offering a Floor?

Despite the soft weather narrative, structural demand factors remain firm. LNG feedgas demand rose 1.5% week-over-week to 15.8 Bcf/d, offering a stable export outlet supported by overseas buyers. U.S. electricity generation is also up 2.1% year-over-year, adding to power sector demand. On the supply side, dry gas production remains elevated at 105.6 Bcf/d, but rig counts have only ticked up slightly, reflecting a cautious approach by producers. Geopolitical noise is also growing louder, with proposed U.S. tariffs on Canadian gas imports introducing fresh supply-side uncertainty—particularly for the Northeast.

Short-Term Outlook: Bullish Setup Tempered by Weather Resistance

Goldman Sachs has slashed its oil price forecast for a third time in one month after OPEC+ decided this weekend to hike production in June with a similar 410,000-bpd increase it is implementing in May.

In an online meeting on Saturday, key OPEC+ producers led by Saudi Arabia and Russia agreed to raise collective output by 411,000 barrels per day (bpd), nearly triple the volume originally scheduled.

The move follows a similar surge announced for May and signals a sharp reversal from OPEC+ efforts to defend oil prices.

Following the announcement of another aggressive production hike, Goldman Sachs cut – again – its average oil price forecasts this year and next.

Goldman’s analysts now see Brent Crude prices averaging $60 per barrel this year, down from a previous forecast of $63 a barrel. The average price of the U.S. benchmark, WTI Crude, was now downgraded at Goldman Sachs to $56 for 2025, down from $59 a barrel previously expected.

Next year, Brent is set to average $56 a barrel, down from $58, and WTI is expected at $52, down from $55 per barrel in the previous forecast from mid-April.

The key reason for the downgrade was the OPEC+ group’s decision to return more barrels to the market despite the uncertainties about economies and demand in the tariff wars and spats.

“Saturday’s decision increases our confidence that the new baseline size of production increases is likely 0.41mb/d,” Goldman Sachs’ strategists wrote in a note carried by Investing.com.

“The decision likely reflects relatively low inventories and a broader shift to a more long-run equilibrium focused on supporting internal cohesion and on strategically disciplining U.S. shale supply,” the investment bank’s strategists said.

According to Warren Patterson, Head of Commodities strategy at ING, the more aggressive supply hikes from OPEC+ mean that the oil surplus will be brought forward, leaving the market in surplus throughout 2025.

Weighed down by the prospect of higher-than-expected OPEC+ output and a market surplus, oil prices were down by 2% in Asian trading on Monday, with Brent dipping below the $60 per barrel mark.

By Tsvetana Paraskova for Oilprice.com

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