• Silver price bounces back to near $32.50 despite the sheer strength in the US Dollar.
• The USD gains after the release of the US ISM Manufacturing PMI data for April.
• The White House has expressed confidence that it will close trade deals with some trading partners in the coming weeks.

Silver price (XAG/USD) recovers a majority of its early losses and returns to near $32.50 during North American trading hours on Thursday. The white metal gained ground after posting a fresh over two-week low around $31.66, earlier in the day, even though the US Dollar (USD) has extended its two-day recovery.

Technically, a higher US Dollar makes the Silver price an expensive bet for investors.

The US Dollar Index (DXY), which tracks the Greenback’s value against six major currencies, jumps above 100.00. The USD strengthens even though the United States (US) ISM Manufacturing PMI data for April has shown that activities declined at a faster pace. The Manufacturing PMI is down at 48.7 from 49.0 in March but higher than estimates of 48.0.

Meanwhile, ISM Manufacturing Prices Paid, which gauges change in input cost, expanded at a faster pace to 69.8 from 69.4, but missed estimates of 70.3. Accelerating input costs are expected to feed consumer inflation. Such a scenario will limit the Federal Reserve (Fed) from reducing interest rates, which bodes poorly for non-yielding assets, such as Silver.

Earlier in the day, the Silver price fell sharply as investors expected that fears of additional tariffs announced by US President Donald Trump have peaked as Washington is close to announcing a bilateral trades with number of its trading partners soon.

“Initial trade deals are to be announced in weeks, not months,” US Trade Representative Jamieson Greer said at Fox News, Reuters reported.

However, trade uncertainty between the US and China will keep the downside in the Silver price limited.

Silver technical analysis

Silver price struggles to revisit an over three-week high around $33.70. The near-term outlook of the white metal has become uncertain as it falls below the 20-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA), which trades around $32.65.

The 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) falls below 50.00 after failing to break above 60.00, indicating that investors are not bullish anymore.

Looking up, the March 28 high of $34.60 will act as key resistance for the metal. On the downside, the April 11 low of $30.90 will be the key support zone.

Silver daily chart

Natural gas price failed to resume the bullish attack, affected by a stochastic attempt to exit the overbought level, which forces it to provide sideways trading by its stability near $3.400, note that the price might form a temporary negative rebound, to target $2.280 level before any attempt to renew the bullish attempts in the current period.

While its rally above the $3.480 level and providing a positive close will reinforce the chances for resuming the bullish attack, to keep waiting for recording the main targets near $3.540 and $3.610.

The expected trading range for today is between $3.280 and $3.450

Trend forecast: Fluctuated

• Gold prices decline as US-China trade deal hopes rise, impacting safe-haven demand.
• US GDP contracts in Q1 2025, but tariff developments overshadow data releases.
• Key support levels for Gold (XAU/USD) are identified as bearish pressure builds, with 3200 and 3167 being crucial

Gold prices have slipped below two crucial areas of support as hopes of a trade deal between the US-China continues to grow. The precious metal is now trading near a two-week low.

Risk appetite and sentiment continues to improve on rising hopes that a trade deal between the US-China will be reached. According to reports from both Bloomberg and the Financial Times, the Trump administration has reportedly tried reaching out to Beijing to start tariff talks, according to a Chinese state-run media outlet.

The outlet stated that China isn’t in a rush to negotiate and won’t engage unless the US takes meaningful actions. However, it added that there’s no harm for China in talking if the US wants to. Analysts noted this language shows a softer stance from Beijing compared to last week, when China’s commerce ministry said negotiations couldn’t begin until the US removed its heavy tariffs.

The result of this growing optimism has definitely weighed on safe haven demand and thus pushed Gold prices lower.

US GDP contracts in Q1

The U.S. economy shrank by 0.3% in the first quarter of 2025, its first decline since early 2022. This was a sharp drop from 2.4% growth in the previous quarter and missed market predictions of 0.3% growth.

A 41.3% jump in imports played a big role in slowing the economy, as businesses and consumers stocked up on goods ahead of higher costs from new tariffs announced by the Trump administration. Consumer spending grew just 1.8%, its slowest pace since mid-2023, and federal government spending fell by 5.1%, the biggest drop since early 2022. However, fixed investment rose by 7.8%, the largest increase since mid-2023.

The impact saw the US Dollar weaken as recession fears gained momentum. Gold prices also enjoyed a rally but as we have noted of late, tariff developments will overshadow data releases in the short-term.

Gold failed to hold onto gains and experienced a swift selloff in the Asian session as it failed to consolidate gains above the $3300/oz handle.

Looking ahead

There remains a significant amount of high impact data releases for the US this week, with the NFP release tomorrow taking center stage.

Even if the data disappoints, the chances of a stellar Gold recovery may not be forthcoming. As long as sentiment and risk appetite continues to improve Gold bulls will face significant headwinds.

For all market-moving economic releases and events, see the MarketPulse Economic Calendar. (click to enlarge)

Technical Analysis – Gold (XAU/USD)

From a technical analysis standpoint, Gold prices have failed to hold above crucial support at the $3300/oz handle.

A daily candle close below the 3300 handle yesterday has led to an accelerated selloff in the Asian session. This has continued after the European open with the precious metal trading at 3220 at the time of writing.

Looking at the period-14 RSI and it is approaching the neutral 50 level which could prove key. A bounce here could be a sign that bullish momentum remains intact and thus facilitate a short-term recovery.

The precious metal is down around $60 on the day and yet a push toward support at the 3200 handle looks likely.

A crucial level of support i will be keeping an eye on rests at 3167, which was the April 3 swing high, just after the universal tariff announcements. This level could hold the key, and have a big impact on whether the precious metal is able to hold above the crucial 3000 handle.

Gold (XAU/USD) Daily Chart, May 1, 2025

Source: TradingView (click to enlarge)

Support

Resistance

Natural gas price failed to resume the bullish attack, affected by a stochastic attempt to exit the overbought level, which forces it to provide sideways trading by its stability near $3.400, note that the price might form a temporary negative rebound, to target $2.280 level before any attempt to renew the bullish attempts in the current period.

While its rally above the $3.480 level and providing a positive close will reinforce the chances for resuming the bullish attack, to keep waiting for recording the main targets near $3.540 and $3.610.

The expected trading range for today is between $3.280 and $3.450

Trend forecast: Fluctuated

The GBPUSD declined in its recent intraday trading, with the emergence of the negative signals on the (RSI), which caused the loss of the previous positive momentum, and that led it to break a minor bullish bias line that represents a dynamic support for the price of recent trading.

The pressure increased with surpassing the support of EMA50, which is considered as an extra confirmation for the weakness of the previous bullish trend, and the price move to a clear correctional station that threatens for more downside moves, especially after losing technical support that might limit the negative momentum.

Therefore, our expectations suggest more of the downside movement for the GBPUSD price in its upcoming intraday trading, if the price settles below 1.3345, to target the critical support at 1.3230.

The expected trading range is between 1.3270 support and 1.3365 resistance.

Today’s forecast: Bearish

The GBPUSD declined in its recent intraday trading, with the emergence of the negative signals on the (RSI), which caused the loss of the previous positive momentum, and that led it to break a minor bullish bias line that represents a dynamic support for the price of recent trading.

The pressure increased with surpassing the support of EMA50, which is considered as an extra confirmation for the weakness of the previous bullish trend, and the price move to a clear correctional station that threatens for more downside moves, especially after losing technical support that might limit the negative momentum.

Therefore, our expectations suggest more of the downside movement for the GBPUSD price in its upcoming intraday trading, if the price settles below 1.3345, to target the critical support at 1.3230.

The expected trading range is between 1.3270 support and 1.3365 resistance.

Today’s forecast: Bearish

• Gold price tumbles to around $3,245 in Thursday’s early Asian session, down 1.25% on the day. 
• De-escalation in US-China trade tensions and a firmer US Dollar weigh on the Gold price.
• The US April employment report on Friday will be closely monitored. 

The Gold price (XAU/USD) extends the decline to around $3,245 during the early Asian session on Thursday. The precious metal edges lower to near two-week low amid easing US-China trade tensions as traders hope for US-China trade deal after US President Donald Trump’s comments

Risk sentiment is improving as Trump said early Thursday that there is a “very good probability that the United States will reach a deal with China, but the agreement must align with its conditions. Optimism surrounding tariff lift the Greenback and weakens demand for traditional safe-haven assets like Gold as it makes yellow metal more expensive for holders of other currencies.

On Tuesday, Trump signed an executive order aimed at easing tariffs on foreign auto parts, granting carmakers a two-year window to raise domestic sourcing. Additionally, US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent emphasized “very good” offers from trade partners. US trade representative Jamieson Greer said late Wednesday that US President Donald Trump’s administration expects to conclude initial tariff deals with some US trading partners within weeks.  

On the other hand, rate cut hopes from the US Federal Reserve (Fed) after weaker-than-expected US economic data might help limit the yellow metal’s losses. The US economy contracted at an annualised rate of 0.3% in the first quarter (Q1) of 2025, according to the US Commerce Department on Thursday. This figure came in weaker than the estimation of 0.4% and down from the previous reading of a 2.4% expansion. 

Futures contracts see the Fed starting rate cuts in June, with a total of four quarter-point reductions expected, lowering the rate to the 3.25%-3.50% band by year-end. Investors will closely watch the US April employment data due on Friday for fresh impetus. The NFP is expected to show 130K job additions in April, while the Unemployment Rate is estimated to remain at 4.2%. 

• Gold price falls for a third straight day on Thursday, breaching $3,260 support.
• The US Dollar builds on recent recovery amid hopes for US trade deals with its Asian partners.  
• Gold price confirms a rising channel breakdown; 21-day SMA at $3,230 appears at risk.

Gold price is extending its bearish momentum into a third consecutive day early Thursday, languishing near two-week lows. Trade headlines have yet again overshadowed the US economic data, significantly impacting the traditional safe-haven Gold price.

Gold price weighs trade talks ahead of US data

The US Dollar (USD) builds on its recovery, capitalizing on the latest remarks from US President Donald Trump, stating that he has “potential” trade deals with India, South Korea and Japan and that there is a very good chance of reaching an agreement with China.

These optimistic comments on the trade front lift risk sentiment and trigger a fresh leg down in the USD-denominated Gold price, diminishing its haven appeal. Hopes over a likely US-China trade war de-escalation continue to act as a headwind for the bright metal.

Meanwhile, markets shrug off the rejection of a bipartisan measure to block Trump’s tariffs by the Senate and the earlier comments from US Trade Representative Jamieson Greer, citing that no official talks were happening with China.        

All in all, Gold’s fate hinges on the sentiment surrounding trade developments, as any reaction to the US economic data releases remains short-lived. Traders will also look to the US ISM Manufacturing PMI and Jobless Claims data for some trading incentives ahead of Friday’s Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) showdown.

The first look of the US annualized Gross Domestic Product (GDP) on Wednesday showed that the US economy contracted for the first time in three months to 0.3% in the first quarter of 2025 as US firms frontloaded to get ahead of the US levies, resulting in an imports surge.

Meanwhile, the core Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index, which excludes volatile food and energy prices, rose 2.6% in March, down from the 3% increase reported in February. 

Gold price jumped briefly above $3,300 following the US GDP and inflation data but failed to sustain the rebound on Trump’s conciliatory remarks following the bleak GDP reading. The US President said in his Truth Social post that “this will take a while, has NOTHING TO DO WITH TARIFFS, only that he left us with bad numbers, but when the boom begins, it will be like no other. BE PATIENT!!!” 

Gold price technical analysis: Daily chart

At the time of writing, Gold price extends the downside break of a three-week-long rising channel confirmed on Wednesday.

Gold price settled well below the rising trendline support, then at $3,351, on Wednesday, paving the way for more downside.

The 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) has stretched its descent, currently testing the midline near 53.50. The leading indicator remains above 50, keeping some hopes alive for Gold buyers.

Gold price must defend the critical 21-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) at $3,230 on a daily closing basis to keep the doors open for a turnaround.

If the latter holds the fort, Gold buyers could test the rising channel support-now-resistance at $3,383 on the road to recovery.

However, recapturing the previous day’s high of $3,328 is critical at first.

On the other hand, if sellers crack the 21-day SMA at $3,230 on a sustained basis, a fresh decline toward the $3,150 psychological level cannot be ruled out.

The 50-day SMA at $3,081 will be next on sellers’ radars.

XAU/USD Current price: $3,309.10

• US employment and growth data missed expectations, spurring risk aversion.
• Inflation in the United States, as measured by the PCE index, eased in March.
• XAU/USD turned neutral in the near term, bearish potential remains well-limited.

Spot Gold fell throughout the first half of the day, extending its intraday slump to a fresh weekly low of $3,267.01. The XAU/USD pair traded on sentiment, falling after the release of tepid United States (US) data.

On the one hand, the April ADP Employment Change report showed that the private sector added measly 62K new job positions, much worse than the 108K expected, while below the previous 147K. On the other hand, the preliminary estimate of the US Q1 Gross Domestic Product (GDP) also missed expectations, as the economy contracted at an annualized pace of 0.3% against the anticipated 0.4% expansion, and sharply down from the previous 2.4%.

Wall Street fell as an immediate reaction to the news, with the US Dollar (USD) reacting unevenly across the FX board, gaining ground against commodity-linked currencies and the bright metal.

However, stocks quickly changed course, and so did XAU/USD, as the US March Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index brought some optimism. PCE inflation was up 0.5% on a monthly basis and 2.3% from a year earlier, slightly above expectations yet shrinking from the February levels. At the time being, US indexes remain in the red, but are well off early lows. While the USD came under selling pressure.

The upcoming Asian session will bring the Bank of Japan’s (BoJ) monetary policy decision. Japanese officials are likely to keep interest rates on hold amid trade-war-related uncertainties. The Japanese yen (JPY) is likely to turn south with the expected decision and a suspected downgrade to economic prospects, which could result in an extra near-term USD impulse.

XAU/USD short-term technical outlook

The XAU/USD pair recovered the $3,300 mark and currently hovers around $3,310, with the upside limited. In the daily chart, the pair trades above all its moving averages, with a bullish 20 Simple Moving Average (SMA) providing relevant dynamic support at around $3,230. The 100 and 200 SMAs advance below it, while technical indicators extend their slides within positive levels, suggesting buyers remain sidelined.

In the near term, and according to the 4-hour chart, the XAU/USD pair is neutral. The bright metal hovers around a directionless 20 SMA, although the longer moving averages advance below the mentioned intraday low, suggesting a limited bearish potential. Finally, technical indicators turned flat at around their midlines, failing to provide clear directional clues.

Support levels: 3,301.40 3,288.70 3,267.00

Resistance levels: 3,327.90 3,344.60 3,358.10

Possible Weekly Support Zone

There is a recent weekly high and low at $3.23 to $3.19 where there could be signs of support. But if that fails as support natural gas may be heading for a possible test of the 200-Day MA, now at $3.09. Also, there is this week’s low at $3.05. Since a drop below that level after this week would indicate a failure of the weekly bullish reversal that was established this week, it seems unlikely. Therefore, the current expectation would be for support to be found at the 200-Day line or above it if a deeper pullback follows today.

Bottom Likely Established

Nevertheless, the are reasons to believe that a bottom for the bearish correction was established last week at $2.86. That was right at support identified by the anchored volume weighted average price (AVWAP) that began from the long-term trend low established in February 2024. Despite the one-day pullback, a decisive advance above today’s high would indicate a possible bullish continuation before a deeper pullback. Strength would be confirmed on a rally above Tuesday’s high of $3.46. Since the 20-Day MA is at today’s high of $3.40, it would be reclaimed on a breakout above today’s high.

Upper Resistance Zone at $3.61 to $3.64

Higher initial targets look to start around $3.61 to $3.64. The upper end of the range was the peak in 2023 and the top of a large symmetrical triangle formation that subsequently formed. However, more significant price levels are around the AVWAP level from the recent trend high on March 10 around $3.76 and the 50-Day MA, now at $3.82. The advance that began this week is a counter-trend rally within a downtrend pattern and therefore rallies will be heading up into a consolidation zone that presents a range of potential selling pressure.

For a look at all of today’s economic events, check out our economic calendar.