Blackrock’s stock price (BLK) rose in latest intraday trading, testing the downward trend line in the short term, and coinciding with touching the resistance of the 50-day SMA, bolstering the strength of this area as a resistance against the stock’s gains, especially with negative signals streaming from the Stochastic after reaching overbought levels compared to the price’s movements. 

 Therefore we expect the price to decline the first support at $887.00, provided the pivotal resistance of $929.00 holds on.

Today’s price forecast: Bearish

The dollar index climbed 0.2%, driven by positive signals from U.S. trade policy and typical month-end demand. President Trump signed executive orders on Tuesday aimed at easing the burden of auto tariffs, while administration officials confirmed a trade deal has been reached with at least one foreign partner.

Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent also suggested additional agreements with countries like India and South Korea are underway. The improved outlook helped the greenback recover ground, pressuring gold by increasing its cost in other currencies.

Gold Faces Pressure from Trade Relief, But Risk Appetite Remains Fragile

Although trade tensions have eased, the gold market has not broken down. China’s move to suspend tariffs on several U.S. goods, including ethane and some semiconductor products, signaled softening positions on both sides. However, the limited downside in gold suggests markets remain cautious, with investors still using the metal as a hedge against policy uncertainty and broader economic weakness.

U.S. Economic Data Could Shift Fed Expectations

Traders are watching for today’s U.S. GDP report, expected to show zero growth, and the March PCE inflation reading forecast at 2.2%. These data points are crucial for shaping Fed policy expectations. Weaker readings could support gold by pushing yields and the dollar lower, while stronger numbers might raise rate hike bets, making non-yielding assets like gold less attractive.

Gold Prices Forecast: Bullish Bias Holds Above Key Support Zone

• Gold price extends its consolidative mode into a fifth straight trading day early Wednesday.  
• The US Dollar holds a modest uptick amid a cautiously optimistic market mood.
• Gold price clings to the rising channel support; buyers refuse to give in ahead of the US GDP release.  

Gold price holds lower ground in Asian trading on Wednesday, but remains within a familiar range. Gold traders eagerly await the release of the US first-quarter Gross Domestic Product (GDP) data for a fresh directional impetus.

Gold price looks to high-impact US data flow

The first look of the US annualised GDP is expected to show a 0.4% growth in Q1 2025, down from a robust 2.4% expansion in the final quarter of 2024. Goldman Sachs economists expect a negative 0.2% growth.

The expected significant slowdown in the US growth could be attributed to a likely import surge as US firms stocked up on inventory to get ahead of the US tariffs.

If the world’s largest economy shows an unexpected contraction, it would refuel recession fears and bring back bets for aggressive Fed rate cuts to the table, reviving the US Dollar (USD) downtrend. This, in turn, would lift the Gold price back toward record highs.

However, a smaller-than-expected cooldown in the US economy growth could provide a brief relief to broader markets and the US Dollar (USD), allowing Gold sellers to build on their corrective downside.

However, traders will remain cautious and refrain from creating fresh directional positions in the Gold price heading toward Friday’s US Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) data, limiting any reaction in Gold price.

The US NFP data will help markets assess if there has been any material impact of US tariffs on the labor market.

Markets will also scrutinize the quarterly core Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index data that will be released alongside the GDP figures.

In the meantime, the Greenback defends gains as markets take stock of the recent tariffs headlines. US President Donald Trump signed an executive order on Tuesday to ease the impact of his auto tariffs. Meanwhile, Trump has adjusted the 25% tariffs on auto parts, which were set to take effect on May 3.

Markets also find some consolation from chatter surrounding progress on trade deals between the US and some of its Asian trading partners.  

Gold price technical analysis: Daily chart

Gold price has defended the three-week-long rising channel support so far this week, currently testing the water underneath.

The 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) still holds above the midline, cushioning any downside in Gold price.  

To confirm a downside break of the rising channel pattern, Gold price must find acceptance below the rising trendline support, now at $3,351, on a daily closing basis.  

The next support aligns at the $3,300 round level, below which the $3,260 demand area will be tested.

A sustained break below the latter will put the 21-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) at $3,224 to the test, followed by the 50-day SMA at $3,075.

Conversely, Gold buyers must find a firm foothold above the channel support-turned-resistance at $3,351 to revive the uptrend toward the $3,370 static resistance.

A sustained recovery will target the $3,400 and the record high of $3,500 thereafter.

The GBPJPY pair remains affected by the negativity on the moving average 55 by forming an extra barrier at 191.55, which forces it to provide more of the sideways trading, to fluctuate near the support at 190.50.

Noting that stochastic exit from the overbought level might increase the negative pressures, which forces the price to break the current support, to confirm its return to the bearish track, to suffer several losses by reaching 189.70 and 188.60, while confirming the bullish scenario needs a clear breach to 191.55, and holding above it to begin achieving gains, which might be near 192.40 reaching 193.15.

The expected trading range for today is between 190.50 and 191.55

Trend forecast: Sideways

The (GBPUSD) price witnessed calm downside moves in its last trading on the intraday levels, affected by the stability of the critical resistance at 1.3420, and the main overview remains prefer the positivity, especially with the stability of the price above EMA50, which reinforces the chances for a bullish rebound any moment, to attempt to gain positive momentum that might assist it to breach this resistance.

The continuation of the trading alongside a bullish bias line on the short-term basis, besides the emergence of the positive signals on the (RSI), suggesting a potential regain for the positive momentum, which increases the possibilities from breaching the mentioned resistance.

The (GBPUSD) price witnessed calm downside moves in its last trading on the intraday levels, affected by the stability of the critical resistance at 1.3420, and the main overview remains prefer the positivity, especially with the stability of the price above EMA50, which reinforces the chances for a bullish rebound any moment, to attempt to gain positive momentum that might assist it to breach this resistance.

The continuation of the trading alongside a bullish bias line on the short-term basis, besides the emergence of the positive signals on the (RSI), suggesting a potential regain for the positive momentum, which increases the possibilities from breaching the mentioned resistance.

The GBPJPY pair remains affected by the negativity on the moving average 55 by forming an extra barrier at 191.55, which forces it to provide more of the sideways trading, to fluctuate near the support at 190.50.

Noting that stochastic exit from the overbought level might increase the negative pressures, which forces the price to break the current support, to confirm its return to the bearish track, to suffer several losses by reaching 189.70 and 188.60, while confirming the bullish scenario needs a clear breach to 191.55, and holding above it to begin achieving gains, which might be near 192.40 reaching 193.15.

The expected trading range for today is between 190.50 and 191.55

Trend forecast: Sideways

• Gold price declines to $3,315 in Wednesday’s early Asian session. 
• Easing trade tensions weighs on the Gold price. 
• The US ADP Employment Change, PCE and the flash Q1 GDP reports will be the highlights later on Wednesday. 

The Gold price (XAU/USD) extends the decline to near $3,315 during the early Asian session on Wednesday. The precious metal edges lower amid easing trade tensions and better risk sentiment in global markets. Traders will keep an eye on the US ADP Employment Change, Personal Consumption ExpendituresPrice Index (PCE) and the flash Q1 Gross Domestic Product (GDP) reports, which are due later on Wednesday. 

US President Donald Trump plans to soften the impact of his automotive tariffs by preventing duties on foreign-made cars from stacking with other tariffs and easing levies on foreign parts used in car manufacturing, officials said. US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said on Monday that key trade partners have made “very good” offers to avoid US tariffs. Additionally, recent moves to exempt certain US goods from retaliatory tariffs demonstrate a willingness to de-escalate trade tensions. 

Easing trade tensions has reduced demand for gold, a traditional safe-haven asset. “The easing came amid the US opening tariff talks with multiple nations and growing expectations of a possible China-US trade agreement according to US President Donald Trump. Additionally, optimism around a potential Russia-Ukraine peace deal further weighed on safe-haven demand for gold,” said Jateen Trivedi, VP Research Analyst – Commodity and Currency, LKP Securities.

Investors await a slew of important US economic data this week for fresh impetus. The US ADP Employment Change, Personal Consumption ExpendituresPrice Index (PCE), and the flash Q1 Gross Domestic Product (GDP) reports will be published later on Wednesday. On Friday, the attention will shift to the US April employment report. 

The expectation for April is that the US economy will add 130,000 jobs and the Unemployment Rate will remain at 4.2%. If the reports show a weaker-than-expected outcome, this could drag the Greenback lower and boost the USD-denominated commodity price in the near term.

• Silver price is declining as safe-haven demand for precious metals weakens amid easing trade-war concerns.
• President Trump highlighted progress in negotiations and confirmed recent communications with Chinese President Xi Jinping.
• Dollar-denominated silver is losing its appeal, with the US Dollar strengthening on growing optimism over improving US-China trade relations.

Silver price (XAG/USD) is depreciating after registering gains in the previous day, trading around $33.00 per troy ounce during the Asian hours on Tuesday. The safe-haven demand for precious metals, including Silver, continues to weaken as trade-war concerns ease.

At the same time, dollar-denominated Silver loses its appeal, with the strengthening US Dollar (USD) making it more expensive for buyers using other currencies. The USD is gaining support as optimism grows over improving US-China trade relations.

US President Donald Trump recently signaled a willingness to roll back tariffs on China, while Beijing granted exemptions on certain US imports — moves that have fueled hopes for a potential resolution to the prolonged trade conflict between the world’s two largest economies.

US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent confirmed in an interview with CNBC on Monday that all arms of the US government are actively communicating with China. He noted that many major US trading partners have made “very good” tariff proposals, and China’s latest exemptions suggest a readiness to ease tensions.

President Trump also emphasized progress in negotiations and confirmed ongoing dialogue with Chinese President Xi Jinping. Meanwhile, The Wall Street Journal reported that Trump is seeking to reduce the impact of automotive tariffs by preventing overlapping duties on foreign vehicles and lowering tariffs on imported car parts.

Traders are turning their attention to several key US economic reports this week, including the preliminary Q1 GDP reading, March PCE inflation data, and April Nonfarm Payrolls figures. These releases are expected to offer important insights into the Federal Reserve’s potential policy moves and the broader economic outlook.

XAU/USD Current price: $3,324.03

• The US Dollar fell in the American session following dismal US data.
• The US will release the preliminary estimate of Q1 GDP on Wednesday.
• XAU/USD is technically neutral in the near term, although odds favor the upside.

Spot Gold trades uneventfully within familiar levels on Wednesday, currently hovering around the $3,325 level. The bright metal shed some ground at the beginning of the day amid near-term US Dollar (USD) demand, yet buyers took their chances around the $3,300 mark.

The USD turned lower following the release of dismal United States (US) data, as Consumer Confidence, as measured by CB, fell to 86 in April, its lowest since October 2021. Additionally, the number of job openings in the country on the last business day of March stood at 7.19 million, as reported in the Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS), easing from the previous 7.48 million openings (revised from 7.56 million) reported in February and below the market expectation of 7.5 million.

Still, the positive tone of equities limited demand for Gold, maintaining the XAU/USD within familiar levels.

Market players are waiting for Wednesday’s data before committing to a certain direction, given that the macroeconomic calendar will be filled with first-tier events. Australia and Germany will publish inflation updates, while Germany, the Eurozone, Canada and the US will release Gross Domestic Product (GDP) figures. The US economy is expected to have grown at an annualized pace of 0.4% in the three months to March, sharply down from the 2.4% posted in the last quarter of 2024.

XAU/USD short-term technical outlook

From a technical point of view, the daily chart for the XAU/USD pair shows the risk skews to the upside, yet the momentum is missing. The pair develops well above all its moving averages, with the 20 Simple Moving Average (SMA) currently at around $3,220, while far above the 100 and 200 SMAs. Technical indicators remain well above their midlines, but turned modestly lower, not enough to suggest an upcoming slide.

The 4-hour chart shows XAU/USD keeps seesawing around a directionless 20 SMA, while the 100 and 200 SMAs keep heading higher over $100 below the current level. Finally, technical indicators turned flat just above their midlines, reflecting the absence of directional strength. The bullish case could gain adepts if XAU/USD extends gains beyond its recent range’s top in the $3,370/80 region.

Support levels: 3,314.50 3,301.40 3,288.70

Resistance levels: 3,344.60 3,358.10 3,375.00