XAU/USD Current price: $3,331.01

• Back and forth between the United States and China spurs caution.
• Wall Street struggles to retain its positive momentum from last week.
• XAU/USD trimmed early losses, but additional gains unlikely in the near term.

Gold price changed course in the American session on Monday, and trades around $3,330, recovering nicely from an intraday low of $3,268.03. In the absence of relevant macroeconomic data, investors kept focusing on trade developments. Mixed headlines on United States-China trade talks spurred some concerns after a quiet start to the day, as cautious optimism led the Asian and European sessions, weighing on US Dollar (USD) demand.

The White House hinted at trade talks with its Asian counterpart last week, but Beijing stated on Monday that President Xi Jinping has not spoken with his United States (US) counterpart, Donald Trump. Meanwhile, Trump said that there are no red lines that would make him ease tariffs. “It always affects you a little bit,” Trump noted when asked about the potential impact on the USD, stocks, or even economic progress.

At the time being, Wall Street struggles to retain the green, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) being the best performer and the Nasdaq Composite being the worst.

Other than that, investors await first-tier data from major economies scheduled for later this week. Most figures will be released on Wednesday, with growth updates from Germany, the Eurozone (EU), the US and Canada. Meanwhile, Australia, Germany and the EU will post inflation updates. The cherry on the top will be US employment-related data, including different reports ahead of the Nonfarm Payrolls report scheduled for Friday.

XAU/USD short-term technical outlook

The XAU/USD pair trimmed early losses, but so far, it’s unable to recover its bullish stance. The daily chart for the pair shows it is hovering around its opening, while the risk remains skewed to the upside, given that it keeps developing above all bullish moving averages. The same chart shows a strong floor in the $3,260 region, as buyers surged around it in the last four trading days. Finally, technical indicators stand well above their midlines, albeit only the Momentum indicator aims north. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) indicator consolidates around 62, as XAU/USD can not extend gains beyond its recent range’s top in the $3,370/80 region.

The near-term picture is neutral-to-bullish. The 4-hour chart shows XAU/USD is currently battling to overcome a directionless 20 Simple Moving Average (SMA), while the 100 and 200 SMAs keep heading higher, over $100 below the current level. Technical indicators, in the meantime, advance, yet within negative levels and with limited upward strength.

Support levels: 3,314.50 3,301.40 3,288.70

Resistance levels: 3,344.60 3,358.10 3,370.00

Will Persistent Weak Demand Keep Prices Under Pressure?

Natural gas futures have now fallen for ten straight sessions, weighed down by mild spring temperatures and sluggish demand typical of the shoulder season.

Production remains stubbornly high, with Lower 48 dry gas output at 104.4 Bcf/day on Friday, up 3.8% year-over-year, according to BNEF. In contrast, Lower 48 gas demand was only 66.8 Bcf/day, down 7% from a year ago.

LNG exports were also lighter, with flows at 15.3 Bcf/day, a 3% week-over-week decline. These supply-demand imbalances continue to erode price support.

What Does the Latest Storage Data Signal for Prices?

The EIA reported an 88 Bcf storage build for the week ending April 18, exceeding expectations of 75 Bcf and topping the five-year average build of 58 Bcf. Total working gas in storage now stands at 1,934 Bcf, 44 Bcf below the five-year average but still within the historical range.

Despite a tighter year-over-year supply picture—storage levels are down 20.2% versus last year—the higher-than-expected injection and ongoing mild weather are keeping pressure on futures.

How Are Traders Reacting to Technical Levels?

Gold prices are hovering near $3,297, defending the rising trendline and major support zone around $3,270, where a triple-bottom structure is forming. The pivot point sits around $3,269, offering critical near-term support. Immediate resistance stands at $3,369, followed by $3,434, and the next key target at $3,500.

A breakdown below $3,270 could open the door toward $3,196 and potentially $3,152. The 50 EMA at $3,323 and the 200 EMA at $3,242 are important trend guides—price action currently dances between them.

A clean bullish reaction above $3,323 would strengthen the short-term outlook, while a failure to hold $3,270 may shift momentum back to sellers.

Silver (XAG/USD) Price Forecast: Technical Outlook

The EURJPY pair provided positive signal on Friday by forming a strong bullish rally, achieving 163.75, which forces it to fluctuate below 163.25 level, due to the contradiction between the main indicators by stochastic exit from the overbought level.

The price might be forced to provide more of the mixed trading, but its success in taking advantage of forming extra support at 162.40 might assist renewing the bullish attempts, to wait for confirming breaching 163.25 to increase the chances for recording new gains by its rally towards 164.20 reaching the next target near 164.90.

The expected trading range for today is between 162.50 and 164.25

Trend forecast: Bullish by confirming the breach

Copper price provided slow trading recently, due to the contradiction between the main indicators, to delay the negative attack and settles near $4.7500 level, reminding you that the bearish scenario will remain valid by the continuation of forming main barrier at $4.9100 against the current trading, which increases the chances for forming bearish waves to press on 50%Fibonacci correction level at $4.6600, and breaking it will extend the losses towards $4.5600, to face the moving average55.

The price rally above the mentioned barrier and holding above it, will confirming delaying the negative attack, and provide chances for recording some extra gains before reaching the previously waited negative targets.

The expected trading range for today is between $4.6600 and $4.8400

Trend forecast: Bearish

Copper price provided slow trading recently, due to the contradiction between the main indicators, to delay the negative attack and settles near $4.7500 level, reminding you that the bearish scenario will remain valid by the continuation of forming main barrier at $4.9100 against the current trading, which increases the chances for forming bearish waves to press on 50%Fibonacci correction level at $4.6600, and breaking it will extend the losses towards $4.5600, to face the moving average55.

The price rally above the mentioned barrier and holding above it, will confirming delaying the negative attack, and provide chances for recording some extra gains before reaching the previously waited negative targets.

The expected trading range for today is between $4.6600 and $4.8400

Trend forecast: Bearish

• Gold Price loses ground to near $3,310 in Monday’s early Asian session, down 0.30% on the day. 
• De-escalating trade tensions between the US and China underpins the Gold price. 
• The fears of the US recession might help limit the Gold’s losses. 

The Gold price (XAU/USD) drifts lower to around $3,310 during the early Asian session on Monday. The precious metal retreats after hitting its record high last week amid signs that global trade tensions may be easing.

US Agriculture Secretary Brooke Rollins said on Sunday that the Trump administration is having daily conversations with China over tariffs, per Reuters. Rollins noted that there were ongoing talks between the two nations and that trade deals with other nations were “very close.” 

“Headlines over potential, partial exemptions in retaliatory tariffs further boosted sentiment today and allowed gold to dip below $3,300 levels,” said Yuxuan Tang, a strategist at JPMorgan Private Bank.

On the other hand, US President Donald Trump’s announcement of broad and steep tariffs earlier in April prompted fears of the US economy tipping into a recession in recent weeks. The International Monetary Fund (IMF) warned last week that the US is confronting an increased risk of recession as Trump’s trade war pushes the global economy into a significant slowdown. This, in turn, could boost the Gold price, a traditional safe-haven asset. 

Gold traders will closely monitor the preliminary reading of US Gross Domestic Product (GDP) for the first quarter (Q1), which is due later on Wednesday. On Friday, the attention will shift to the US April employment report, including Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP), Unemployment Rate and Average Hourly Earnings. 

Silver Tracks Gold, Faces Selling Pressure

Silver (XAG/USD) mirrored the weakness in gold, trading at $33.44 after touching an intraday low of $33.37. The broader risk-on tone, fueled by upbeat U.S. economic figures and reduced trade friction, contributed to the decline.

Both metals remain under pressure as investors tilt toward equities and higher-yielding assets.

Stronger U.S. Data Boosts Dollar, Fed Dovishness Cushions Gold

U.S. macro data released Thursday showed notable strength. Weekly jobless claims came in at 222,000, reflecting a still-resilient labor market. March durable goods orders surged 9.2%—driven by a third consecutive 27% rise in transportation equipment—beating the 2% forecast handily.

This bolstered the U.S. dollar, further weighing on gold. However, dovish commentary from Fed officials provided a partial buffer.

Cleveland Fed President Beth Hammack said rate cuts could begin as early as June, while Governor Waller acknowledged a need to ease policy if tariffs begin harming employment. Markets now price in up to three rate cuts by year-end.

Geopolitical Tensions Offer Safe-Haven Floor

Despite the pullback, geopolitical uncertainty continues to underpin gold. A missile strike in Kyiv—reportedly one of the deadliest since the start of the conflict—killed at least 12 people, keeping a geopolitical risk premium embedded in gold prices.

Natural gas price suffered new negative pressures by stochastic approach from 20 level, which forces it to reach below the extra support at $3.610, forming new bearish wave to settle near $3.500 as appears in the above image.

In spite of the main stability within the bullish channel’s levels, but the continuation of the negative pressures and forming extra barrier at $3.770, so these factors supports the bearish bias dominance in the current period, to expect suffering new losses by reaching $3.380 reaching the moving average 55 near $3.230.

The expected trading range for today is between $3.380 and $3.700

Trend forecast: Bearish

Downward Pressure Remains

Despite finding support yesterday at the AVWAP, downward pressure remains. Prior support from the January swing low at $2.99 was tested today as resistance, as the high for the day was at $2.98. Moreover, at the time of this writing, natural gas is trading below Thursday’s closing price of $2.94 and it may end the day in a similar position. Each is a bearish sign.

Decline Stalls After 41.7% Drop

Nevertheless, the bearish correction has seen the price of natural gas fall by $2.04 or 41.7% from the recent trend high of $4.90. The decline shows symmetry on a percentage basis with the earlier bearish correction that started following the June 2024 swing high at $3.16. Natural gas declined following that high and eventually established a higher swing low in August.

That low provided the second point to draw a rising trendline across support, which was used to generate the top line of a bullish trend channel. Note that the 2024 decline was the largest since the 2024 bottom, until now. Once there is symmetry in price between swings, there is the potential for support to be seen and possibly the completion of the correction.

Lower Support at $2.79

Furthermore, since the lower line of the trend channel has not been tested as support, while the top line shows resistance a few times recently, there is a chance that the lower line will be tested before the bearish correction is complete. But that is not much lower than current prices. The 78.6% Fibonacci retracement level is at $2.79 and the 127.2% projection for a falling ABCD pattern points to $2.77. Alternatively, the current low continues to hold and a one-day bullish reversal triggers on a move above today’s high. If the 200-Day MA, now at $3.08, is subsequently reclaimed, a bottom may be established.

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