• Silver price falls sharply to near $33.00 on hopes of de-escalation in Sino-US trade war.
• China considers pausing tariffs on some US imports.
• Beijing denies any economic and trade talks with the US.

Silver price (XAG/USD) plunges more than 1.5% to near $33.00 during North American trading hours on Friday. The white metal falls sharply from its three-week high of $33.70 posted earlier in the day. The asset weakens as investors have become increasingly confident that the United States (US) and China will make a deal sooner.

Hopes of a truce on a trade war between the world’s two largest powerhouses have increased as China has stated that it is considering suspending additional tariffs on imports of medical equipment and some industrial chemicals from the US, Bloomberg reported.

Investors see the scenario as favorable for the global economic outlook. Theoretically, improving global economic prospects diminish the demand of safe-haven assets, such as Silver.

Meanwhile, the US Dollar (USD) has bounced back after a sharp corrective move on Thursday. The US Dollar Index (DXY), which tracks the Greenback’s value against six major currencies, recovers to near 99.75.

However, contradictory statements from US President Donald Trump and China over whether both nations have come on the table or not for negotiating trade deals are expected to keep investors on the sidelines. Trump has been stating that discussion between Washington and Beijing on trade are going well, however, China has denied these remarks, saying that there has not been any “economic and trade negotiations between China and the US”.

Silver technical analysis

Silver price falls sharply after posting a fresh three-week high around $33.70. However, the near-term outlook of the white metal remains bullish as it holds the 20-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA), which trades around $32.60.

The 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) struggles to break above 60.00. A fresh bullish momentum would emerge if the RSI will break above that level.

Looking up, the March 28 high of $34.60 will act as key resistance for the metal. On the downside, the April 11 low of $30.90 will be the key support zone.

Silver daily chart

Bullish Momentum Unsustainable

Technically, there has been limited damage done to the bull trend so far, but there are initial signs that at least an interim high may have been reached and therefore a deeper or longer correction may have begun. The recent rapid rise in the slope of the trend is one example of how the gold rally may have reached exhaustion now that a one-day bearish signal has been confirmed. Trend indicators such as rising support trendlines and the increasing spread between the 200-Day MA (blue), 50-Day MA (orange), and 20-Day MA (purple), reflect the growing bullish momentum.

Bearish Signs Remain

A decline below today’s low of $3,287 will give a bearish signal and put this week’s low at risk of failing. However, the first key support zone looks to be from $3,246 to $3,228, consisting of a prior trend high and 50% retracement, respectively. The top blue rising trend channel line previously represented resistance and now support since it was exceeded two weeks ago is also around that price area. Subsequently, a decline below the 50% retracement level puts gold in a position to test the next lower potential support zone around a prior trend high and 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level at $3,164.

For a look at all of today’s economic events, check out our economic calendar.

Is Technical Pressure Signaling a Deeper Pullback?

The daily chart suggests ample room for additional downside movement, with the next significant support level marked at $2.199. Immediate resistance is seen at the 61.8% short-term retracement level of $2.995. A break above this could spark short-covering activity, but upside momentum would likely stall near the 50% retracement at $3.361. Until a clear reversal forms, price action remains vulnerable to further selling.

How Did the Latest EIA Report Rattle the Market?

Thursday’s EIA report fueled selling after a much larger-than-expected storage build. Inventories for the week ended April 18 surged by +88 Bcf, sharply above the consensus estimate of +75 Bcf and the five-year average build of +58 Bcf. This sizable increase came even as total stocks remain -20.2% lower year-over-year and -2.3% below the five-year seasonal average, underscoring tight overall supply but overshadowed by the near-term bearish build.

Could Renewable Energy Trends Keep a Lid on Prices?

Strong wind and solar generation were cited as major factors behind the weak drawdown in natural gas inventories. As renewable output expands, natural gas demand for power generation continues to face intermittent headwinds, particularly during mild weather periods. This dynamic weighed heavily on sentiment after the bearish EIA miss.

What Role Is Weather Playing in Suppressing Demand?

Weather forecasts through April 30 project near-ideal conditions across most of the U.S., with highs ranging from the 60s to 80s, and localized 90s across the southern states. With only light to very light national demand expected, near-term fundamentals offer little support to prices. Mild conditions reduce both heating and cooling loads, directly limiting natural gas consumption.

Market Forecast: Bearish Bias Prevails

Given the combination of bearish EIA data, weak weather-driven demand, strong renewable generation, and bearish technical signals, the short-term outlook for natural gas remains bearish. Traders should watch the $2.906 technical level closely, but a failure to hold above it opens the door for a deeper correction toward $2.199 support.

More Information in our Economic Calendar.

The EURJPY pair provided new negative closes below the moving average 55 at 161.20 level, which forces it to return to settle within the bearish channel’s levels, to begin targeting some of the negative stations by reaching 159.60.

The contradiction between the main indicators might force the price to form mixed waves, but the chances of activating the bearish track will remain valid, if the trading settled below the bearish channel’s resistance at 160.75, to expect forming an initial negative target at 158.90 level, reaching 157.40 in the near period trading.

The expected trading range for today is between 158.90 and 161.00

Trend forecast: Bearish

Gold price declined in its last intraday trading, to surpass the support of its EMA50, its positive chances with the emergence of the negative signals on the (RSI), to lean on a minor bullish bias line on the short-term basis, accompanied by its stability at the key support level at$3,290.

Therefore, the stability of the support at $3,290 makes our expectations prefer moving upside in the gold price’s upcoming intraday trading, to target the resistance $3,400, while breaking this support will change our overview to the negativity to target the support level at$3,200.

The expected trading range for today is between $3,255 support and $3,365 resistance

Today’s forecast: Neutral

Crude oil prices rose slightly in its recent intraday trading, taking advantage of the temporary positive momentum that is caused by its stability above EMA50, to compensate for some of its previous losses.

Despite this intraday rise, the negative pressures remain valid, due to the price affection by the formed negative rising wedge pattern on the short- term basis, besides the emergence of the negative overlapping signals on (RSI), after entering overbought areas, which reinforces the possibilities of renewing the selling pressures.

Therefore, our expectations suggest (crude oil) decline in its upcoming intraday trading, if it remains stable below $63.20, to target the support at $61.50, preparing to break below it.

The expected trading range is between $64.40 support and $66.90 resistance.

Today’s forecast: Bearish

• Silver eases from a three-week high retested earlier this Friday.
• The setup supports prospects for the emergence of dip-buyers.
• A break below the $32.00 mark might negate the positive bias.

Silver (XAG/USD) edges lower after testing the three-week top during the Asian session on Friday and currently trades around the mid-$33.00s, down 0.30% for the day. The technical setup, however, warrants caution before positioning for any meaningful depreciating move.

This week’s breakout above the $33.00 round figure, representing the top end of a multi-day-old range and the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level of the March-April downfall, was seen as a key trigger for bullish traders. Moreover, oscillators on the daily chart have been gaining positive traction and are still far from being in the overbought territory. This, in turn, suggests that the path of least resistance for the XAG/USD is to the upside.

Hence, any subsequent slide might still be seen as a buying opportunity near the $33.00 hurdle breakpoint, now turned support. A convincing break below the said handle might prompt some technical selling and drag the XAG/USD further toward the $32.40 support en route to the $32.10-$32.00 area. Some follow-through selling will suggest that the recent recovery from the $28.00 mark, or the year-to-date low, has run out of steam.

On the flip side, the $33.70 area now seems to have emerged as an immediate hurdle, above which the XAG/USD could aim to reclaim the $34.00 mark. The momentum could extend further towards the $34.30 intermediate resistance en route to the next relevant barrier near the $34.55-$34.60 region, or the highest level since October 2024 touched last month. The white metal could eventually aim to conquer the $35.00 psychological mark.

Silver 4-hour chart

• Gold price defends weekly gains early Friday, finding stiff resistance near $3,370.  
• The US Dollar picks up bids on the US trade deal optimism with its Asian allies.
• The daily technical setup remains in favor of Gold buyers, with $3,400 a key topside barrier.

Gold price holds Thursday’s rebound, defending weekly gains near $3,350 early Friday. Gold buyers catch a breather, taking stock of the trade developments globally after US President Donald Trump’s tariffs whiplash.

Gold price pauses its rebound as US Dollar rebounds

This Friday, the US Dollar (USD) sees fresh signs of life as risk sentiment remains upbeat on optimism for trade deals. Reuters reported that the Trump administration seems to be progressing in early trade talks with Asian allies South Korea and Japan.

On Thursday, Seoul’s delegation said that both sides aim to craft a trade package before the pause on reciprocal tariffs is lifted in July. Meanwhile, Japanese Finance Minister Kato Katsunobu held talks with US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent in Washington on Thursday, noting that Bessent did not raise the Yen’s level in bilateral talks.

In evidence of further progress, Japan’s chief negotiator, Economy Minister Ryosei Akazawa, will hold a second round of trade talks with Bessent next week.

Receding recession fears, following encouraging earnings reports from American tech giants, offer some respite to the beleaguered US Dollar. Shares of Google parent Alphabet jumped over 3% in after-hours after its first-quarter earnings beat analysts’ expectations.

The short-term technical outlook for the Gold price remains constructive as the 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) holds firm above the midline, currently near 65.

Gold price must find acceptance above the $3,400 threshold for resuming the uptrend toward the record highs of $3,500. Further up, the rising trendline resistance at $3,583 will come into play.

If the upside loses traction, a 21-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) test at $3,175 will be inevitable on a sustained move below Wednesday’s low of $3,260.

The line in the sand for Gold buyers is seen at the $3,200 barrier.

• Silver steady on Thursday, supported by weaker US Dollar and lower bond yields.
• Traders eye upside amid lingering uncertainty over full US-China tariff rollback.
• Fed officials remain cautious, signal data-dependent path amid rising economic ambiguity.

Silver finished Thursday’s session virtually unchanged, yet it remains near weekly highs of $33.65, with traders poised to push the grey metal higher.

XAG/USD clings to $33.65 as Fed uncertainty and falling Treasury yields bolster precious metals despite tariff relief hopes

An improvement in risk appetite was sponsored by a de-escalation of US President Donald Trump’s tariffs on China, which weighed on silver prices. However, China’s Commerce Ministry Spokesman urged the US to lift all duties on Chinese imports “if it really wants to solve the problem.”

Precious metals remain underpinned by the fall of US Treasury yields. This consequently weakened the Greenback, which, according to the US Dollar Index (DXY), dropped 0.50% down to 99.28.

US economic data showed the labor market remains solid following the release of the latest Initial Jobless Claims figures, which came in aligned with estimates. US Durable Goods Orders smashed forecasts of 2% in March and grew 9.2% Month over Month due to a jump in transportation orders.

A myriad of Fed speakers led by Governor Waller grabbed the headlines. Waller said that it is unlikely to know the impact of tariffs in July, adding that the second half of 2025 will bring more clarity. Cleveland Fed Beth Hammack said that uncertainty is weighing on businesses, and if data warrants it, the Fed’s next move could be in June.

XAG/USD Price Forecast: Technical outlook

Amid this backdrop, Silver could remain trading near the week’s high but buyers need to clear key resistance levels. the first ceiling would be $34.00, followed by the current year-to-date (YTD) high of $34.58. Once those two levels are taken out, traders could target the $35.00 mark.

Conversely, if XAG/USD falls below $33.00, sellers will be tempted to test the 50-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) at $32.63. Once cleared, the next support would be $32.00.

Bearish Inside Day Forms

Today, Thursday, crude oil consolidated forming an inside day with a high of $63.73 and low at $62.40. There are a couple indications of weakness provided from the day. Notice that the day’s range is in the lower half of Wednesday’s range, and at the time of this writing, crude oil is trading below the halfway point of the range and looks likely to close in a similar relatively bearish position. Moreover, the high for the day found resistance at a significant price level from May 2023 (dashed horizontal). That was the lowest traded price for crude oil until the recent sharp fall.

Below $61.94 Points Lower

A decline below today’s low provides the next sign of weakening, while a deeper bearish retracement is signaled on a drop below Wednesday’s low of $61.94. Notice that there is also a small rising trend line across the bottom of recent price action. That line will already be broken if Wednesday’s low is triggered. If the decline is triggered there are two key areas to watch for support. The first is at a recent interim swing low of $60.40 and the 50% retracement at $60.27. Then, further down is a range from $59.08 to $58.86, defined by the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement and prior daily support, respectively.

Weak Weekly Close Looks Likely

There is one more day to the week with crude oil set to establish a second consecutive higher weekly high and higher weekly low. It reflects short term strength. But bearish price action following this week’s high puts crude oil in a position to end lower for the period and likely below last week’s high of $64.72. Therefore, the upside weekly breakout would not be confirmed on that time frame.

For a look at all of today’s economic events, check out our economic calendar.