Drop Below $2.96 is Bearish

A decline below today’s low will indicate weakness and will put Tuesday’s low of $2.96 at risk of failing to hold as support. If that happens, the next lower support zone becomes a target. That would be from $2.79 to $2.77, consisting of the 78.6% Fibonacci retracement and the 127.2% projection for a declining ABCD pattern, respectively. There are also two trendlines around the price zone that may provide additional indications of supply and demand.

Continues to Find Support

Despite the potential for a bearish continuation, natural gas has been stalled at a potential support zone around the late January higher swing low of $2.99. Although there was a brief dip below that low yesterday to a new trend low of $2.96, the breakdown has not yet been confirmed with a daily close below that low. Therefore, there remains the possibility that sentiment could change towards a short-term bullish posture.

Upside Breakout Indicated Above $3.07

A decisive rally above today’s high could provide an early sign of a potential bounce within the dominant downtrend. It would signal an inside day upside breakout as well as reclaim the 200-Day MA. If there is subsequently bullish confirmation with a daily close above the 200-Day line, further upside may be possible. Today is the eighth day since an inside day breakdown triggered a bearish continuation on April 11 and sellers have remained in control for most of those days. Therefore, a counter-trend bounce is due. Furthermore, keep an eye on the relative strength index (RSI) as it crosses into oversold territory.

50-Week Moving Average Support

There is another technical indication that current lows may hold as support. This week’s lows have also been testing support around the 50-Week MA, currently at $3.00. That is a long-term trend indicator. Since the 50-Week line was reclaimed in September there has only been one pullback to test it as support and that occurred relatively soon after the bull breakout. Not only does the 50-Week line indicate potentially strong support, but a sustained drop below it further adds to the potential significance of such a breakdown.

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• Silver price climbs to nearly $33.00 as trade tensions between the US and China diminish.
• US President Trump is confident of closing a deal with China.
• Trump has pushed back fears of removing Fed Powell.

Silver price (XAG/USD) trades firmly around $33.00 during North American trading hours on Wednesday. The white metal strengthens as fears of an intense trade war between the United States (US) and China have diminished after President Donald Trump signaled the possibility of a deal with Beijing.

“Discussions with Beijing are going well,” Trump said on Tuesday while addressing reporters at the Oval Office, and showed optimism that both nations will “reach a deal”. Trump added that tariffs on China “would not be as high as 145%, but they wouldn’t be zero”.

Theoretically, easing global economic tensions reduces the appeal of safe-haven assets, like Silver. However, the metal is rising due to its industrial demand. Silver has applications in various industries, such as Electric Vehicles (EV), electronics, power and cables, mining etc.

Financial market participants expect that easing tensions between the world’s two largest powerhouses will favor both economies.

Meanwhile, the intraday corrective move in the US Dollar (USD) has also supported the Silver price. The US Dollar Index (DXY), which tracks the Greenback’s value against six major currencies, surrenders initial gains and falls back to near 99.00.

The USD Index gives up intraday gains even though Donald Trump has pushed back fears of sacking Federal Reserve (Fed) Chair Jerome Powell. Still, he is frustrated with Powell for holding interest rates too restrictive.

Silver technical analysis

Silver price trades back-and-forth in a range between $32.08 and $33.12 since Wednesday. The white metal turns sideways after a strong upside move since April 7. The 20-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) near $32.40 continues to provide support to the Silver price.

The 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) oscillates in the 40.00-60.00 range, indicating a volatility contraction.

Looking up, the March 28 high of $34.60 will act as key resistance for the metal. On the downside, the April 11 low of $30.90 will be the key support zone.

Silver daily chart

Halliburton reported a first-quarter profit drop to $204 million (24 cents/share) from $606 million last year, with shares falling 6% to $20.62 after warning of a second-quarter earnings hit.

CEO Jeff Miller cited President Trump’s tariffs, which raise costs for steel-based equipment like drilling rigs, and weak U.S. crude prices below $64/barrel, deterring profitable drilling.

North American revenue declined 12% to $2.2 billion, as producers scaled back production due to prices below the $65 threshold. International revenue dipped 2%, led by reduced activity in debt-laden Mexico.

Halliburton forecasts a 2-3 cent/share impact from trade tensions, with second-quarter earnings at 63 cents/share. Despite a $356 million charge, including $107 million in severance costs, revenue of $5.42 billion beat estimates.

The company expects flat to slightly lower international revenue and a 1-3% rise in completion division revenue, but drilling margins may drop significantly.

Miller noted potential equipment “white space” as clients cut 2025 activity, possibly retiring or exporting fleets. The oilfield services sector braces for tariff-driven supply chain disruptions, with Halliburton’s stock down 24% year-to-date, outpacing rival SLB’s 11% decline.

XAU/USD Current price: $3,290.46

• US President Donald Trump cooled down concerns about Fed Powell’s continuity.
• Hopes of easing trade tensions between the United States and China lifted the mood.
• XAU/USD corrected extreme overbought readings, sellers paused.

Spot Gold retreats on Wednesday, extending its slump to the $3,260 area during American trading hours. The bright metal fell as the market sentiment improved following United States (US) headlines. US President Donald Trump clarified on Tuesday that he is not willing to fire Federal Reserve (Fed) Chairman Jerome Powell, but that he is frustrated with the decision to maintain interest rates at high levels. Even further, Trump mentioned progress in trade negotiations with China, adding to speculative interests’ relief.

Stock markets reflect the better mood, as Asian and European indexes closed in the green, while Wall Street is firmly up for a second consecutive day, having trimmed all of its Monday losses.

Further optimism came from market talks suggesting the US would lower tariffs on China. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent on Wednesday said that “there is an opportunity for a big deal” between the two countries, but declined to comment on the tariffs’ levels. He finally added that tariffs will likely have to come down for trade negotiations.

On the data front, S&P Global released the preliminary estimates of the April Purchasing Managers’ Indexes (PMIs), which showed that the manufacturing index improved to 50.7 in April after posting 50.2in March. The Services PMI eased from its previous reading of 54.4 to 51.4, while both indicating expansion in business activity.

XAU/USD short-term technical outlook

The XAU/USD pair bounced from the mentioned low and trades around the $3,290 level. Technical readings in the daily chart suggest Gold may fall further, given that indicators head south almost vertically. Still, as indicators hold within positive levels, the slide could be considered corrective. Even further, the pair develops above all its moving averages, with a firmly bullish 20 Simple Moving Average (SMA) currently at $3,168.

The near-term picture shows sellers have paused. In the 4-hour chart, technical indicators are losing their bearish momentum near oversold readings, but are still far from suggesting an upcoming recovery. In the meantime, the 20 SMA turned flat, providing resistance in the $3,380 region. Finally, the 100 and 200 SMAs maintain their bullish slopes far below the current level, limiting the case for a steeper decline.

Support levels: 3,283.40 3,260.00 3,247.10

Resistance levels: 3,313.65 3,329.20 3,342.35

The CADCHF lost its positive momentum by stochastic exit from the overbought, to end the bullish rally by hitting 1.8520 level, to form a temporary correctional rebound, to settle near 1.8410.

By the above image, we notice the price stability within the main bullish channel’s levels, and 23.6%Fibonacci correction level forms a strong support at 1.8220, which makes us wait for gathering the positive momentum, to activate the bullish rally again by reaching 1.8460, repeating the pressure on the obstacle at 1.8520, in order to find an exit to achieve extra gains in the upcoming period.

The expected trading range for today is between 1.8355 and 1.8460

Trend forecast: Bullish

Copper price’s trading extended towards 68% Fibonacci correction level, recording the second target at $4.9000, to form an extra barrier against the bullish rally.

We expect price affection by some of the negative pressures, especially, stochastic attempts to exit the overbought level, which might increase the chances for activating the bearish correctional track and suffering some losses by reaching $4.7700 and $4.6800, while the price success to breach the obstacle will reinforce the chances for recording new gains that might extend towards $4.9600 reaching the next barrier near $5.0300.

The expected trading range for today is between $4.7700 and $4.900

Trend forecast: Fluctuated within the bullish track

No news for the EURJPY pair, to keep providing weak sideways trading, due to the continuous contradiction between the main indicators in the last period, to notice its fluctuation near the moving average 55 at 161.60.

Note that the stability of the trading below the main resistance at 163.05 represents a main factor for confirming the bearish bias domination, to keep waiting for targeting negative stations near 160.35 and 159.55, while breaching the resistance and holding above it will cancel the negative suggestion, to begin targeting several positive stations by reaching 163.70 and 164.20.

The expected trading range for today is between 160.35 and 162.40

Trend forecast: Bearish

• Silver price could lose ground due to investor optimism growing over the Federal Reserve’s independence.
• US President Donald Trump helped calm markets by clarifying he has no intention of removing Fed Chair Jerome Powell.
• Silver price receives support from President Trump’s optimism over ongoing US-China trade negotiations.

Silver price (XAG/USD) retraces its recent losses from the previous session, trading around $32.70 per troy ounce during the Asian hours on Wednesday. However, prices of grey metal faced headwinds as investor optimism grew over the Federal Reserve’s (Fed) independence.

US President Donald Trump helped calm markets by clarifying he has no intention of removing Fed Chair Jerome Powell, stating, “The press runs away with things. No, I have no intention of firing him. I would like to see him be a little more active in terms of his idea to lower interest rates.”

Market sentiment was further lifted by US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent, who called the ongoing tariff dispute with China “unsustainable” and expressed optimism about a resolution. Though formal talks have yet to begin, Bessent suggested a deal is within reach, according to attendees of a private JP Morgan Chase & Co. event in Washington.

However, Silver continues to find support from this positive backdrop. President Trump echoed an upbeat outlook, noting progress in trade negotiations with China. While he dismissed the possibility of steep tariff hikes—clarifying they wouldn’t reach 145%—he also confirmed tariffs would not be fully lifted.

As Silver plays a vital role in industries like electronics, solar energy, and automotive manufacturing, any improvement in US-China trade relations could boost demand, particularly given China’s position as a global manufacturing powerhouse.

A decisive break above $66.99 could open the path to $68.15 and $70.21. Failure to clear this range might drag price back toward $64.24 or deeper to $62.20. So far, Brent is grinding higher, but the lack of volume near resistance zones suggests traders are cautious.

This triangle is nearing its apex—expect a breakout or breakdown soon as macro headlines and inventory data weigh in.

• Gold price bounces from multi-day lows as bargain hunting kicks in early Wednesday.  
• The US Dollar reverses recovery gains as investors doubt President Trump’s intentions.
• Gold price appears a ‘buy-the-dips’ trade as the RSI eases and prods the bullish zone.

Gold price has bounced off the dip to three-day lows near $3,310 early Wednesday as buyers fight back control amid a fading US Dollar (USD) recovery ahead of the US S&P Global preliminary business PMI data release.

Gold price could see a buying resurgence at lower levels

Gold price has witnessed volatile trading this week, hitting fresh record highs at $3,500 before facing rejection and slumping toward the $3,300 level. The record run in the Gold price was mainly backed by the markets’ anxiety about the US Federal Reserve (Fed) losing its independence following President Donald Trump’s verbal attacks on Fed Chair Jerome Powell.

The focus shifted from the US-China trade war to Trump’s Fed threat early in the week, exacerbating the US Dollar’s pain while driving the Gold price to new all-time highs. However, the tide turned in favor of the Greenback in Tuesday’s American trading as USD buyers were rescued by US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent, who said at a closed event that he expects “there will be a de-escalation” in President Donald Trump’s trade war with China in the “very near future.”

Hopes of easing US-China trade tensions fuelled a positive shift in risk sentiment and a US Dollar recovery, reflecting an ideal ‘Tuesday turnaround.’ Investors took this as an excuse to book profits on their Gold long positions as the bright metal corrected as much as $120 from record highs to settle near $3,380.

Gold’s corrective downside extends into Asian trading as investors digest the overnight backpedalling by Trump on the US-China trade war and Powell’s firing. The US President said that the final tariff rate with China would come down “substantially” from the current 145% but it won’t be that high, not going to be that high.”

He added that he is willing to strike a trade deal with China, showing his openness for negotiations. 

However, the downside in Gold price remains cushioned as the USD stalls its recovery momentum as markets question Trump’s intentions, citing them as highly unpredictable.

The attention now turns to the S&P Global preliminary Manufacturing and Services PMI data from Europe and the US for further trading impetus. US PMI data for April will be closely scrutinized for fresh signs on the health of the US economy. The data could help markets alter their expectations of Fed interest rate cuts this year.

Fed fund futures ran into selling late Tuesday as investors scaled back the extent of rate cuts expected by year-end to around 81 basis points (bps).

Gold price technical analysis: Daily chart

The daily chart shows that the 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) has eased from the overbought territory, returning to the bullish zone.

The latest downtick in the leading indicator backs the fresh leg down in Gold price. However, buyers remain hopeful so long as the $3,300 level holds fort.

If the correction deepens, Gold price could challenge the 21-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) at $3,163.

Ahead of that, the $3,200 barrier could provide some support to buyers.

Conversely, if the uptrend resumes, Gold price could retake the $3,400 threshold en-route to the record highs of $3,500.