• Gold price bounces from multi-day lows as bargain hunting kicks in early Wednesday.  
• The US Dollar reverses recovery gains as investors doubt President Trump’s intentions.
• Gold price appears a ‘buy-the-dips’ trade as the RSI eases and prods the bullish zone.

Gold price has bounced off the dip to three-day lows near $3,310 early Wednesday as buyers fight back control amid a fading US Dollar (USD) recovery ahead of the US S&P Global preliminary business PMI data release.

Gold price could see a buying resurgence at lower levels

Gold price has witnessed volatile trading this week, hitting fresh record highs at $3,500 before facing rejection and slumping toward the $3,300 level. The record run in the Gold price was mainly backed by the markets’ anxiety about the US Federal Reserve (Fed) losing its independence following President Donald Trump’s verbal attacks on Fed Chair Jerome Powell.

The focus shifted from the US-China trade war to Trump’s Fed threat early in the week, exacerbating the US Dollar’s pain while driving the Gold price to new all-time highs. However, the tide turned in favor of the Greenback in Tuesday’s American trading as USD buyers were rescued by US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent, who said at a closed event that he expects “there will be a de-escalation” in President Donald Trump’s trade war with China in the “very near future.”

Hopes of easing US-China trade tensions fuelled a positive shift in risk sentiment and a US Dollar recovery, reflecting an ideal ‘Tuesday turnaround.’ Investors took this as an excuse to book profits on their Gold long positions as the bright metal corrected as much as $120 from record highs to settle near $3,380.

Gold’s corrective downside extends into Asian trading as investors digest the overnight backpedalling by Trump on the US-China trade war and Powell’s firing. The US President said that the final tariff rate with China would come down “substantially” from the current 145% but it won’t be that high, not going to be that high.”

He added that he is willing to strike a trade deal with China, showing his openness for negotiations. 

However, the downside in Gold price remains cushioned as the USD stalls its recovery momentum as markets question Trump’s intentions, citing them as highly unpredictable.

The attention now turns to the S&P Global preliminary Manufacturing and Services PMI data from Europe and the US for further trading impetus. US PMI data for April will be closely scrutinized for fresh signs on the health of the US economy. The data could help markets alter their expectations of Fed interest rate cuts this year.

Fed fund futures ran into selling late Tuesday as investors scaled back the extent of rate cuts expected by year-end to around 81 basis points (bps).

Gold price technical analysis: Daily chart

The daily chart shows that the 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) has eased from the overbought territory, returning to the bullish zone.

The latest downtick in the leading indicator backs the fresh leg down in Gold price. However, buyers remain hopeful so long as the $3,300 level holds fort.

If the correction deepens, Gold price could challenge the 21-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) at $3,163.

Ahead of that, the $3,200 barrier could provide some support to buyers.

Conversely, if the uptrend resumes, Gold price could retake the $3,400 threshold en-route to the record highs of $3,500.

Signs of Short-Term Exhaustion

Signs have been building recently that the uptrend was getting extended with the risk of a bearish pullback increasing. Nonetheless, the price of gold proceeded higher as global uncertainty spread, busting through numerous potential resistance levels on the way up. Recently, upside breakouts of two rising parallel trend channels triggered and were confirmed by weekly closing prices above the top of each channel. This was bullish behavior but also signs of growing speculation as traders jump into gold in fear of losing out on further gains.

Generates Bearish Shooting Star

Today’s bearish shooting star candlestick pattern will trigger a one-day bearish reversal on a drop below today’s low, currently at $3,372. The first clear downside target is the prior brief trend high at $3,246, which was also the top of a small bull pennant pattern that covered only two days. Measuring the pattern provided an estimated target of $3,454, and it was exceeded today. Also, on the way down watch for support around the top channel lines. The price they represent will vary depending on when approached.

Test of 20-Day Moving Average Possible

Since the 20-Day MA was reclaimed at the beginning of this year, two subsequent pullbacks to test the line as support failed initially before gold recovered and trended higher. This current potential bearish pullback could certainly fall to the 20-Day line, now at $3,153, to test it as support before it is complete. If that is what happens the expectation is for signs of support to be seen around the line. Since the 20-Day MA is rising it may reach another prior trend high of $3,168, where support may be seen, or rise above it.

For a look at all of today’s economic events, check out our economic calendar.

Remains Below 200-Day Moving Average

Since the spike peak of $4.90 (A) was reached briefly in early March natural gas has been in a steady decline that accelerated following an initial pullback and establishment of a lower swing high (C) three weeks ago. It recently confirmed that sellers remain in charge as both the 200-Day MA, now at $3.07, and the January swing low were broken to the downside.

On Monday, natural gas closed below the 200-Day line, and it looks set to do the same today. Being an important long term trend indicator, the 200-Day MA is being tested as support for only the second time since the line was reclaimed in September of last year. It sets the stage for a possible test of support are lower price levels.

Bear Tend Extended

At the same time, the decline is showing signs of getting closer to exhaustion. Until there is a daily close below the $3.23 prior swing low, natural gas remains within a potential support zone that could continue to hold. Although there have not been any signs of buyers stepping in, the decline has stalled at the support zone. If it is sustained, a sign of strength would be indicated on a rally above today’s high of $3.10. Whether that leads to a continuation higher remains to be seen. Of course, as it stands now, a rally above today’s high would put the price of natural gas back above the 200-Day MA. Otherwise, a bearish continuation could see a decline down to the $3.79 price area.

For a look at all of today’s economic events, check out our economic calendar.

XAU/USD Current price: $3,394.10

• US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent sees a de-escalation of tensions with China.
• A better mood pushed Gold sharply lower after the bright metal reached fresh record highs.
• XAU/USD edges sharply lower after reaching record highs, corrective decline may continue.

Gold hit $3,500 a troy ounce on Tuesday, yet another record high. The XAU/USD pair, however, retreated from such highs and trades in the $3,390 region in the mid-American afternoon, as the US Dollar (USD) managed to recover some of the ground lost at the beginning of the week.

The Greenback got sold off on Monday amid mounting tensions between United States (US) President Donald Trump and Federal Reserve (Fed) Chairman Jerome Powell, as the former claims Powell is not doing his job properly, and threatened to displace the central bank’s head. Trump, however, does not have the power to do so. Nevertheless, continued threats on the matter put investors in risk-off mode. Stocks plummeted at the beginning of the week alongside the Greenback, with the slides exacerbated by thin market conditions amid the Easter Holiday.

Fears cold down a bit on Tuesday, but remain in the background. Fed’s independence is under scrutiny. Additionally, tariffs hang like a Damocles’ sword. Trump’s retaliatory levies are on pause, in hopes that the US could reach a better trade deal with its counterparts. The USD found additional support, and stocks accelerated their recovery following comments from US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent, who said that the current situation with China is unsustainable and that he sees a de-escalation of the situation.

The absence of first-tier data these days maintains the focus on US political and fiscal woes. A bit more action from that front will come from S&P Global, as the company will release the preliminary estimates of the April Purchasing Managers Indexes (PMIs) for most major economies on Wednesday. The figures are a barometer of economic health, and financial markets usually react to the headlines.

XAU/USD short-term technical outlook

The daily chart for the XAU/USD pair shows it retreated sharply from its record peak and trades near its daily lows. The long upward wick could anticipate an upcoming steeper decline, although the risk-averse environment could still trigger another run of Gold buying. The same chart shows technical indicators remain within overbought levels, barely losing their upward strength. At the same time, XAU/USD keeps trading far above all its moving averages, which maintain their bullish slopes.

The near-term picture suggests the corrective decline could continue. In the 4-hour chart, XAU/USD is piercing a mildly bullish 20 Simple Moving Average (SMA), while the 100 and 200 SMAs keep heading firmly higher over $200.00 below the current level. At the same time, technical indicators head sharply lower and are currently approaching their midlines from above. Further declines, should the 20 SMA get clearly pierced, could result in the pair falling towards $3,284, the April 17 intraday low.

Support levels: 3,370.00 3,357.75 3,342.05

Resistance levels: 3,392.25 3,405.90 3,430.00

The CADJPY kept providing negative trading, to remain stable below 61.8% Fibonacci correction level, which represents an extra barrier at 103.55, to notice by the above image, that it suffers clear losses by its stability near 101.50.

Notet that the main indicators unity by validating negative momentum, specifically reaching to 20 level, makes us prefer more of the negative trading, which might target 100.40 reaching 78.1% Fibonacci correction level at 99.45.

The expected trading range for today is between 100.40 and 102.40

Trend forecast: Bearish

The GBPUSD declined in its last intraday trading, to gather the gains of its previous rise, attempting to gain positive momentum, by offloading some of its clear overbought conditions on the (RSI), besides the negative signals that appear at this moment.

Amid the dominance of the main bullish trend and the trading alongside minor trendline on the short -term basis, which strengthens this trend, especially with the continuation of the positive support from moving above EMA50.

Binance Coin’s currency price rose in latest intraday trading and tested the main downward trend line in the short term, while also bumping into the resistance of the 50-day SMA, doubling the strength of this region as a barrier against the price, with negative signals from the Stochastic after reaching overbought levels compared to the price’s movements, hinting at negative divergence. 

Therefore we expect the price to return lower and target the support of $568.90, provided the resistance of $613.10 holds on.

Today’s price forecast: Bearish

Is Weather Demand Too Weak to Support Prices?

Weather forecasts continue to lean bearish. According to NatGasWeather, the next 15 days will bring near-ideal conditions for most of the U.S., with highs in the 60s to 80s dominating the map. This “shoulder season” setup, where neither heating nor cooling demand is significant, is keeping national demand light. Atmospheric G2 further expects above-normal temperatures in the eastern U.S. through April 30, suggesting no weather-based support in the near term.

Production Growth and Storage Trends Undercut Price Support

Supply-side fundamentals remain stubbornly loose. Lower-48 dry gas production on Monday was reported at 106.8 Bcf/d, up 6.9 Bcf year-over-year, while demand lagged at just 65.9 Bcf/d, down 7.3% y/y. Despite LNG feedgas flows of 15.0 Bcf/d, the supply-demand imbalance is pressuring prices lower. Even so, storage is tighter than normal—last week’s EIA report showed a build of just +16 Bcf, well below expectations of +24 Bcf and the 5-year average increase of +50 Bcf. Inventories now sit 3.9% below their five-year average and nearly 21% below last year’s levels.

LNG Expansion and Electricity Demand Offer Long-Term Support

While short-term drivers are bearish, some long-term fundamentals remain constructive. The U.S. is seeing stronger electricity output, with Edison Electric Institute reporting a 6.4% y/y rise in the week ended April 12. This may eventually lift gas demand from utilities. Additionally, the resumption of LNG export approvals under President Trump could unlock new demand in the future, especially if more terminals advance through the approval pipeline.

Will Prices Hold or Slip Below the 200-Day Moving Average?

The 200-day moving average at $2.901 remains critical. Monday’s test held, but with little weather-driven demand ahead and production staying high, downside pressure remains in place.

Near-term outlook leans bearish, with the potential for further declines if support at $2.901 gives way. A hold could spark short-covering, but without a demand driver, rallies are likely to be capped.

More Information in our Natural Gas Futures.

There is currently no technical resistance above current levels, leaving gold to trade vertically. Key support levels have adjusted higher with the pivot now at $3,228.38, while the 50-day moving average—considered the major support level—sits lower at $3,027.23. Traders are eyeing the potential for a closing price reversal top, which could trigger a short-term correction. However, the broader uptrend remains intact as long as buying strength continues to dominate market sentiment.

Trump’s Fed Criticism Weighs on Dollar, Boosts Bullion

The rally gained momentum after Trump sharply criticized Powell on social media, calling him a “major loser” and demanding immediate interest rate cuts. Trump argued that inflation is under control and suggested that without rate cuts, the U.S. economy could stall. These remarks pressured the U.S. dollar to fresh three-year lows and triggered a sharp 2.4% sell-off in equities—conditions typically favorable for gold.

No Forced Liquidation Despite Stock Sell-Off

Unlike previous sell-offs in equities, gold prices have not suffered from distressed liquidation or margin call selling. This signals firm conviction in bullion holdings, even as traders digest political risk and monetary policy uncertainty. The usual inverse correlation between stocks and gold has broken down temporarily, with bullion rising even as financial markets decline—underscoring its role as a hedge in times of stress.

Gold Prices Forecast

With political risk escalating and Fed policy under a microscope, gold remains well supported above $3,200. As long as buyers remain aggressive, and the dollar stays under pressure, the next psychological target is $3,600. Traders should watch upcoming Fed speeches closely for any hint of policy shifts, but for now, the trend remains firmly bullish.

More Information in our Economic Calendar.

The CADJPY kept providing negative trading, to remain stable below 61.8% Fibonacci correction level, which represents an extra barrier at 103.55, to notice by the above image, that it suffers clear losses by its stability near 101.50.

Notet that the main indicators unity by validating negative momentum, specifically reaching to 20 level, makes us prefer more of the negative trading, which might target 100.40 reaching 78.1% Fibonacci correction level at 99.45.

The expected trading range for today is between 100.40 and 102.40

Trend forecast: Bearish