Crude oil prices rose in its recent intraday trading, challenging the key resistance level at $61.50, supported by a short-term bullish correctional wave and the emergence of positive signals from the Relative Strength Index (RSI). However, the price is also facing a strong obstacle, which is the resistance of the EMA50.

Created on April 14, 2025

Bearish view

• Sell the WTI crude oil and set a take-profit at $55.
• Add a stop-loss at $65.
• Timeline: 1-5 days.

Bullish view

• Buy crude oil and set a take-profit at $65.
• Add a stop-loss at $55.

The WTI crude oil price crashed to $55 last week, its lowest level since February 2021 as demand concerns coincided with higher oil OPEC output. It then bounced back to end the week at $61.43.

Crude oil faces demand and supply shocks

The WTI crude oil price outlook is bearish as the industry battles numerous demand and supply concerns.

The main demand aspect is that there are concerns that the US and other countries may move into a recession this year. In a note last week, the Energy Information Administration (EIA) warned that demand could drop as uncertainties remains. It also slashed demand estimate for this year and 2025.

At the same time, oil producers are preparing production increases this year. OPEC member countries voted to increase production gradually in the coming months.

Donald Trump is also aiming to boost US oil production as he seeks to lower inflation and ease regulations. He campaigned on a “drill, baby, drill” mantra, which involves boosting production, which currently stands at 13.5 million barrels a day. Any trade deal with other countries will likely involve them buying more oil to reduce the US deficit.

The United States is talking to Russia on ending the war in Ukraine. Any potential deal would end the sanctions that the US and other countries have placed on Russia, a move that would bring more oil online.

Additionally, the US is negotiating with Iran on ending its nuclear power program. A deal would also involve the Trump administration removing sanctions on Iranian oil that have reduced its exports in the past few months.

The WTI crude oil price will react to trade news this week. Signs of de-escalation between China and the US will likely be a bullish sign for oil prices.

WTI crude oil price analysis

The weekly chart shows that the WTI crude oil price has been in a downward trend in the past few months. It has formed a descending triangle pattern, a popular bearish sign in the technical analysis.

The price has moved below all moving averages and the lower side of the descending triangle pattern. The widest point of this triangle is 38%, meaning that the longer-term target is about $40. This target was achieved by measuring the same distance from the lower side of this triangle.

In the short term, however, the WTI crude oil price may retest the lower side of this triangle and then resume the downtrend.

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Natural gas price continued resisting the negative pressures, by its stability above $3.350 level, to decrease the chances for suffering extra losses, and increase the chances for activating the bullish track, due to stochastic exit from the oversold levels as appear in the above image.

The price rally is expected toward the extra resistance at $3.640, confirming that surpassing it is important to confirm regaining the bullish bias, by its rally directly to the positive stations near $3.950 reaching $4.180 in the medium period trading.

The expected trading range for today is between $3.450 and $3.950

Trend forecast: Bullish

Copper price resumed its bullish rally, to notice its approach from $4.5600 this morning, which represents 50%Fibonacci correction level for the last decline, which began from the top at $5.3200.

Note that the continuation of copper’s price stability below $4.5600 level as an important barrier might push it to delay the bullish attack, and providing new negative trading, to target $4.4300 and $4.3200, while breaching the barrier and holding above it will reinforce the chances for recording extra gains that might extend to $4.6800 and $4.7500.

The expected trading range for today is between $4.4300 and $4.5600

Trend forecast: Bearish

No news for Platinum price by its repeated fluctuations below the obstacle at $950.00, which forces it to provide weak sideways trading, delaying the waited bullish rally.

Note that stochastic attempt to reach the overbought level supports the chances for gaining positive momentum, to keep waiting for breaching the current obstacle to ease achieving the extra gains, which are located near $963.00 and$976.00, while the failure of the breach will confirm the domination of the sideways scenario, with a chance for retesting the initial support at $920.00 before any attempt to reach the previously suggested targets.

The expected trading range for today is between $935.00 and $963.00

Trend forecast: Bullish

• Gold price builds on Friday’s pullback from record highs of $3,245 early Monday.  
• Trump’s lower tariffs on Chinese electronics and chips offer relief to markets.
• Technically, Gold could see a brief correction before the next leg up.

Gold price is sustaining its retreat from all-time highs of $3,245 reached on Friday, reverting toward $3,200 early Monday. 

Gold price keeps a close eye on tariff talks

Having posted an outstanding 6.5% weekly gain, Gold price kicks off a new week on the back foot, pausing its three-day record-setting rally. The latest downtick in Gold price could be attributed to the positive shift in risk sentiment following a tumultuous week.

US President Donald Trump’s tariff concession on the Chinese electronics supply chain, hopes of more stimulus coming from China and Beijing’s stance of ignoring further US responses have offered markets some relief, diminishing the safe-haven appeal of the Gold price.

Trump clarified late Sunday that there will be no tariff exemption on semiconductors and the electronics supply chain but these products will be subject to the existing 20% tariffs on fentanyl and not the 145% levies.

This comes after China said on Friday that it will ignore further US responses after raising tariffs on US good to 125%, in retaliation to Trump’s 145% tariffs.

Meanwhile, Chinese policymakers vow to step up stimulus to cushion the world’s second-largest economy from the impact of the escalating trade war with the United States (US).

Gold price also bears the brunt of some progress on the US-Iran geopolitical talks. According to Reuters, US envoy Steve Witkoff and Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi spoke for around 45 minutes on Saturday, with the Trump administration reportedly satisfied with the first round of talks. The second round of negotiations are expected to continue later this week.

That said, any dip in Gold price is likely to be bought in as traders remain wary about tariff talks and ahead of Wednesday’s Chinese first-quarter growth figures. Markets also remain unnerved as the US earnings season begins later this week.

In the meantime, Gold traders will look forward to China’s March trade data. However, the data is unlikely to show the full impact of the US-Sino trade war. Later in the day, several Federal Reserve (Fed) policymakers are scheduled to speak. Their take on Trump’s tariffs and hints on the Fed’s next interest rate move could provide some trading incentives in Gold price.

Gold price technical analysis: Daily chart

The daily chart shows that the 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) has eased from the overbought region to currently trade near 69, suggesting that the corrective pullback will likely be shallow.

The first area of contention for sellers is at the $3,200 threshold, below which Friday’s low of $3,176 will be challenged.

Additional declines could test the $3,100 round level, followed by the 21-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) resistance-turned-support at $3,074.

Conversely, the record high of $3,245 is the immediate topside barrier for Gold buyers. Scaling that level will open the door toward the $3,300 mark.

• Gold price reverts toward $3,200 early Monday, correcting from record highs.
• The US Dollar holds the bounce amid upbeat mood and the latest tariff news.
• Gold price looks to Fedpeak and Chinese trade data for near-term trading impetus.

Gold price is back in the red early Monday, snapping a three-day record rally to lifetime highs of $3,245 set on Friday.    

Gold price corrects on improved risk sentiment

Safe-haven flows appear to have eased in Asian trading on Monday as traders rejoice in Wall Street’s turnaround on Friday alongside some positive updates on the US-China tariff war, alleviating the bullish pressure on the Gold price for now.

On Friday, China responded to the US tariff hike to 145% by raising tariffs on American goods to 125%. However, Beijing said it would ignore further US responses.

Over the weekend, US President Donald Trump considered imposing 20% tariffs on Chinese semiconductors and the electronics supply chain against the previously announced 145% levies.

These tariff updates seem to be perceived positively by markets, as they provide some consolation and allow a modest recovery in the US Dollar against its major currency rivals from 35-month lows.

The US Dollar uptick and risk appetite keep the corrective downside intact in Gold price as traders await China’s Trade Balance report and speeches from several US Federal Reserve (Fed) policymakers for further trading impetus.

Markets could use the excuse of not-so-steep tariffs on Chinese electronics and chips to take profits off the table following the recent Gold price upsurge.

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Created on April 11, 2025

• Gold has exploded to the upside yet again during the trading session on Thursday as it looks like we are getting ready to take out the all-time highs.
• That’s not a huge surprise: the only thing that’s a surprise at this point in time is how quickly it happened.
• Remember, gold got a boost during the announcement that tariffs were going to be paused for 90 days, but they were already rallying before that.

Most of what you’ve seen recently has been forced liquidation by hedge funds who were trying to cover losses in other markets. Remember, they have a leveraged book. So if they find themselves in serious trouble, for example, with the NASDAQ 100 or maybe something along the lines of levered Tesla or Nvidia positions, and sooner or later, they are forced to pay more margin and typically, what they’ll do is they will sell a market that’s done very well to collect some of those profits and send them to their prime dealer. The $3,000 level has offered support. The 50-day EMA as well, just below, has offered support and at this point in time, it looks like we are ready to go screaming higher again.

Momentum Will Slow

I don’t expect this type of momentum to continue, but I do think that the uptrend is most certainly going to be looking at the bullish flag underneath, we had a measured move of $3,300 and there’s nothing on the chart that suggests that we can’t get there. In fact, I do think we will probably go higher than that. Gold is screaming higher for a multitude of reasons, not just the fact that there’s a lot of financial stress out there, the simple fact that there’s a lot of geopolitical problems, and of course it looks like the global economy may slow down in various places. So, all this leads for a continuation of the trend that we’ve seen for the better part of a year and a half now.

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LNG Exports Remain Firm, But Demand Risk Lingers

Despite macro headwinds, LNG exports held strong. Net flows to US export terminals reached 16.3 Bcf/d on Friday, up 9.1% week-over-week. This remains a key area of support for prices. Traders are also watching US storage levels, which BloombergNEF projects will be 10% below the five-year average by summer—keeping bullish positioning alive even as near-term drivers remain mixed.

Storage Injection Caps Upside Despite Supply Tightness

EIA data showed a +57 Bcf injection for the week ended April 4, broadly in line with expectations but well above the five-year average of +17 Bcf for this period. Storage remains 2.1% below the five-year norm and 19.8% under last year, signaling tight underlying supply. Still, the size of the injection gave the market little reason to rally.

Dry gas production held at 106.2 Bcf/d, up 4.7% y/y, while demand reached 76.7 Bcf/d, up 11.4% y/y. Electricity output rose 4.05% y/y, suggesting firm baseline power burn, but not yet summer-driven demand.

Mixed Weather and Modest Rig Uptick Add Pressure

Weather outlooks are neutral to slightly bearish. The Commodity Weather Group sees above-normal temps in the West and seasonal conditions elsewhere from April 16–20—limiting late-season heating demand. Baker Hughes reported an increase of one rig, bringing the gas rig count to 97, still historically low but off recent lows.

Market Forecast: Slightly Bearish Bias Ahead

With trade tension clouding demand outlooks and weather offering no near-term support, nat-gas looks vulnerable to further downside. LNG flows and tight storage remain bullish anchors, but unless a weather or export catalyst emerges, price action may continue to drift lower in the near term.

More Information in our Economic Calendar.