• Silver gains as Moody’s downgrade and US budget vote weigh on sentiment.
• RSI remains bullish; break above $33.50 could target $34.00 next.
• Drop below $33.00 risks deeper pullback toward 100- and 200-day SMAs.

Silver price extended its rally to three days on Wednesday, edging up 0.21% as the Greenback continued to weaken across the board. Moody’s downgrade to US sovereign debt and the vote of the US fiscal budget, keeps investors seeking safety in the precious metal. At the time of writing, XAG/USD trades at $33.45.

XAG/USD Price Forecast: Technical outlook

Silver prices stabilized within the $33.00-$33.50 for the day and ended Wednesday’s session near the $33.40 area, closing into the first key resistance level at $33.50. As wrote yesterday, “The Relative Strength Index (RSI) favors buyers,” which means that a decisive breach of key resistance levels could pave the way to challenge $34.00.

On the other hand, if XAG/USD tumbles below $33.00, it would open the path to challenge the 100-day SMA at $31.98, followed by a test of the 200-day SMA at $31.30.

XAG/USD Price Chart – Daily

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The 50-EMA at $3,274 and the 200-EMA near $3,265 remain supportive beneath, reinforcing the bullish structure as long as higher lows hold. Key levels to watch include immediate resistance at $3,346 and support at $3,302.

A daily close above the top of the channel could target $3,379 next, but if momentum fades, a pullback toward $3,302–$3,265 looks probable. Gold remains bullish but overextended in the short term.

Copper price confirmed delaying the decline in the current period, due to the continuation of providing positive momentum by the main indicators, attempting to surpass the initial barrier at $4.6600, recommend waiting for confirming the breach to reinforce the chances for forming a bullish rally then targeting some of the positive stations that begin at $4.7500 reaching 61.8%Fibonacci correction level at $4.8100.

Activating the negative track requires forming a sharp decline, to settle below $4.5000 level, to confirm targeting several negative stations that begin at $4.4300 and $4.3100.

The expected trading range for today is between $4.5500 and $4.7500

Trend forecast: Bullish

Platinum price resumed the bullish rally to achieve the suggested target, to achieve the suggested target by hitting $1083.00 facing the resistance of the bullish channel that appears in the above image.

Reminding you that stochastic stability within the overbought level might force the price to provide intraday sideways trading, and the continuation of the current resistance stability might force the price to retest the initial support at $940.00, while breaching the resistance and holding above it will open the way for achieving new gains, forming an initial target at $1100,00 level, reaching the recently achieved top at $1125.00.

The expected trading range for today is between $1055.00 and $1083.00

Trend forecast: Sideways

Platinum price resumed the bullish rally to achieve the suggested target, to achieve the suggested target by hitting $1083.00 facing the resistance of the bullish channel that appears in the above image.

Reminding you that stochastic stability within the overbought level might force the price to provide intraday sideways trading, and the continuation of the current resistance stability might force the price to retest the initial support at $940.00, while breaching the resistance and holding above it will open the way for achieving new gains, forming an initial target at $1100,00 level, reaching the recently achieved top at $1125.00.

The expected trading range for today is between $1055.00 and $1083.00

Trend forecast: Sideways

XAU/USD Current price: $3,304.80

• Mounting trade tensions and the United States tax bill undermine the market mood.
• S&P Global will release estimates of the May PMIs for most major economies.
• XAU/USD consolidates gains above $3,300, prepares to extend weekly gains.

Gold extended gains beyond the $3,300 mark on Wednesday, still backed by broad US Dollar (USD) weakness. The XAU/USD pair reached a fresh one-week high of $3,320.70, retreating towards the current $3,310 price zone after Wall Street’s opening.

The USD keeps falling on the back of unresolved global trade issues and fresh tax-related concerns. The United States (US) announced a 90-day pause in retaliatory levies a couple of weeks ago, bringing relief and risk appetite back to financial markets. However, as time goes by, deals are nowhere near. Mounting tensions between the country and China and Japan are taking their toll on sentiment.

Meanwhile, US President Donald Trump’s tax bill advances in Congress. The bill aims to make permanent the 2017 tax cuts from Trump’s first term. It would reduce some taxes, while raising others and changing spending amounts. The House is set to discuss it on Thursday.

Thursday will also bring the preliminary estimates of May S&P Global Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) for most major economies. The US Manufacturing PMI is foreseen at 50.1 while services output is expected at 50.8, little changed from April’s figures. Still, signs of further contraction in business output will likely add to the broad USD weakness.

XAU/USD short-term technical outlook

The daily chart for the XAU/USD pair shows it extended its advance beyond its 20 Simple Moving Average (SMA), which now acts as support at around $3,289.20. The 100 and 200 SMAs keep advancing well below the current level, while the Momentum indicator maintains its bullish slope above its 100 level, all of which supports another leg higher. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) indicator, however, turned flat at around 54, hinting at some consolidation before the next directional movement.

The 4-hour chart shows the XAU/USD pair consolidates above all its moving averages, with the 20 SMA extending its advance below still flat 100 and 200 SMAs. Technical indicators, however, have lost their upward strength. The Momentum indicator heads marginally lower within positive levels, while the RSI indicator seesaws around 64, reflecting the ongoing pause.

Support levels: 3,289.20 3,271.55 3,252.40

Resistance levels: 3,325.00 3,342.95 3,358.40

Below $3.31 Targets 200-Day MA at $3.20

Whether that candle pattern occurs or not, a drop through the day’s low of $3.31 will trigger a one-day bearish reversal and a failure to successfully reclaim the 20-Day MA. Nonetheless, key support is around the 200-Day MA, now at $3.20, and the recent higher swing low at $3.10 (C). Given a sharp one-day bullish reversal that triggered yesterday, a minor pullback before moving higher would be healthy for the advance that began from the April swing low (A).

Higher Swing Low Following Strong Support

A higher swing low was recently established following a successful test around the 200-Day MA. Although natural gas dipped briefly below the 200-Day line, it quickly recovered, and buyers took charge. In addition, the weekly chart (not shown) had a successful test of the 50-Week MA during the April swing low, and it converged with the 78.6% retracement at $3.07.

Since the 50-Week line was reclaimed in mid-September it has largely represented dynamic support for the trend other than a couple short dips below the line. It provides higher timeframe confirmation that strong support was likely found around the April swing low and that the bull trend should be ready to proceed.

Weekly Bullish Confirmation

This week’s higher swing low provides further evidence for a continuation of the bull trend. Dynamic support is defined by the internal rising trendline that connects to the April swing low. Notice that the slope is higher than the purple trendline that connects to the August swing low and below the trendline line that broke on the bearish head and shoulders pattern trigger.

For a look at all of today’s economic events, check out our economic calendar.

Via Metal Miner

The Copper Monthly Metals Index (MMI) retraced to the downside with a 4.23% decline from March to April. Looking at copper prices today, analysts seem to be struggling with ongoing trade policy shifts.  

Copper Prices Zigzag Amid Uncertain Trade Policy

Comex copper prices have experienced wild swings over the past few months. First, they hit a new all-time high in March before plunging in April. By mid-May, they entered into a shaky sideways trend.

Source: MetalMiner Insights

Tariffs continue to drive the market. This month, markets have mostly been reacting to the U.S.’s most recent deals with China and the UK. Both appeared to ease concerns that the broad-based tariffs announced over recent months may prove less extreme than expected, resulting in renewed optimism about the global economy. 

While mostly stable, the bias appears increasingly to the downside for Comex copper prices today. This is mainly because tariff deals have yet to fully ease the demand concerns that continue to plague the market. 

Copper Study Group Forecasts Surplus

The International Copper Study Group counts itself among those not particularly concerned about supply. Contrary to previous worries that the copper market was on the verge of growing deficit, the ICSG expects the market to maintain its surplus status in both 2025 and 2026.

The group noted “Uncertainty surrounding international trade policy that is likely to weaken the global economic outlook and negatively impact copper demand, usage growth rates have been revised down compared to the Group’s September 2024 forecasts.” As a result, the surplus expectation more than doubled for 2025. Considering the surplus accumulated during 2024, this will leave the market with a significant cushion as trade policy evolves.

U.S.-China Relationship Continues to Stoke Uncertainty

While the raw material market remains tight, global growth prospects remain a concern. The U.S. economy shrank by 0.3% in Q1. Meanwhile, deflation remains a lingering problem for China, which is struggling to lean on domestic demand amid trade barriers in the U.S.

The U.S.-China trade deal may have eased some market concerns about the impact of steep tariffs on the world’s two largest economies. However, uncertainty lingers as the current agreement will expire in 90 days and still leaves a steep 30% tariff on Chinese goods.

Copper Stocks Up as Prices Slide

Global stocks returned to the upside in May, offering no support for copper prices today. While inventory fluctuations do not boast a strong correlation to copper prices, the rise suggests demand conditions appear relatively stable. Both SHFE and LME inventory levels experienced considerable drawdowns over recent months as material moved to the U.S. amid tariff concerns.

Source: MacroMicro

But while LME stocks continue to decline, SHFE stocks have started to rebound. This, alongside the continued rise in Comex stocks, has added a further drag to bullish expectations for copper prices.

U.S. Dollar Stabilizes

Among the other leading indicators for copper prices, the U.S. dollar index appeared to stabilize, halting declines that pushed the index below its long-term range in previous months.

Source: MetalMiner Insights, Chart & Correlation Analysis Tool

The index, which trades inversely to copper prices, has started to move sideways after regaining some of the losses accumulated in recent months. While it has fallen short of rebounding back to where it stood at the start of the year, the modest increase has seemingly weighed on copper prices over recent weeks.

Where Can the Dollar Go From Here?

Investor expectations remain mixed on the future direction of the index. Speculation that the White House might favor a weaker dollar relative to other currencies added considerable weight, particularly after the Trump administration noted the strength of the U.S. dollar has come at the expense of U.S. exports. However, U.S. officials have subsequently clarified that currency policy is not part of ongoing trade negotiations.

Meanwhile, the Federal Reserve has yet to blink with regard to rate cuts. Chairman Jerome Powell has remained reluctant to cut rates since last year, as tariff announcements have risked further inflation pressures in the U.S. While the most recent CPI and negotiations with China could incentivize a softer stance from the Fed, Powell has repeatedly cited “uncertainty” as reason to hold rates steady. 

A cut from the Fed would add further pressure on the U.S. dollar, potentially dragging it back below its current range. This could stem further losses for copper prices today, tomorrow, and in the near future. Read MetalMiner’s market outlook and copper price forecast here.

By Nichole Bastin

More Top Reads From Oilprice.com

• Silver price jumps to near $33.20 as the US Dollar underperforms on the US Sovereign Credit downgrade.
• Moody’s downgraded the US credit rating by one notch to Aa1.
• Investors await the Russia-Ukraine ceasefire talks in Vatican City.

Silver price (XAG/USD) hits a fresh weekly high to near $33.20 during North American trading hours on Wednesday. The white metal strengthens as the US Dollar (USD) extends its downside on the United States (US) credit rating erosion in the wake of large debt levels and escalated fiscal imbalances.

The US Dollar Index (DXY), which tracks the Greenback’s value against six major currencies, slumps to near 99.50, the lowest level seen in two weeks. Technically, a soft US Dollar makes the Silver price a value bet for investors. Additionally, concerns over US credit erosion improve the safe-haven demand of non-yielding assets, such as Silver.

On Friday, Moody’s downgraded the US Sovereign Credit rating by one notch to Aa1 from Aaa amid concerns over ballooning debt levels to near $36 trillion. The credit rating firm also warned of debt levels widening further, with US President Donald Trump aiming to pass a new tax-cut bill to fulfil his economic agenda.

However, Republican lawmakers didn’t back the new tax bill in a closed-door meeting on Capitol Hill on Tuesday due to disagreement over higher deductions in state and local tax payments, according to a Republican Representative Mike Lawler, Reuters reported.

Meanwhile, investors keep a close eye on the Russia-Ukraine truce talks in the Vatican City. On Monday, US President Trump confirmed immediate ceasefire talks between Moscow and Kyiv through a post on Truth. Social, but didn’t mention any specific timeframe. Trump expressed confidence that talks would be majorly about ending the war and not a temporary truce. Russia and Ukraine will immediately start negotiations toward a Ceasefire and, more importantly, an END to the War,” Trump said. Signs of progress in the Russia-Ukraine truce talks towards ending the war will be unfavorable for safe-haven assets, such as Silver.

Silver technical analysis

Silver price delivers a breakout of the Descending Triangle formation on a daily timeframe, which results in a strong upside move. The near-term trend of the white metal is bullish as it holds the 20-period Exponential Moving Average (EMA), which trades around $32.65.

The 14-period Relative Strength Index (RSI) oscillates inside the 40.00-60.00 range, indicating a sideways trend. Should a fresh bullish momentum emerge if the RSI breaks above 60.00.

Looking up, the March 28 high of $34.60 will act as key resistance for the metal. On the downside, the April 11 low of $30.90 will be the key support zone.

Silver daily chart