• Gold price consolidates above $3,200, near one-week lows ahead of US CPI data.
• The US Dollar retreats as markets weigh the US-China trade truce and Fed easing bets.
• Gold price cracked the 21-day SMA support, but buyers refuse to give up yet.  

Gold price has managed to defend the $3,200 mark again, consolidating Monday’s 3% slump early Tuesday. Gold sellers take a breather as traders await the high-impact US Consumer Price Index (CPI) data, which is expected to drive the next trading impetus.

Gold price eyes US CPI data for some reprieve

The gold price is showing some fresh signs of life in Asian trading this Tuesday as the US Dollar (USD) pulls back after a strong performance following news of a highly anticipated US-China trade truce.

Following the weekend’s trade talks in Geneva, both sides agreed that the US would reduce levies on Chinese imports from 145% to 30% during a 90-day negotiation period, and China would lower duties from 125% to 10%.

Risk flows intensified amid optimism about the China trade deal, easing US recession fears and reducing bets for aggressive Federal Reserve (Fed) interest rate cuts this year, which in turn powered the USD’s ongoing recovery at the expense of the traditional safe-haven Gold price.

Additionally, a ceasefire between India and Pakistan, along with optimism ahead of Thursday’s Russia-Ukraine peace talks, contributed to the downside in the Gold price.

In Tuesday’s trading so far, USD sellers appear to have regained control, as investors remain wary of the prospects for a permanent thaw in the US-China trade war. Fanning these concerns, US Trade Representative Jamieson Greer said late Monday that China has agreed to remove countermeasures. However, if things don’t work out, China tariffs can be reinstated.

Furthermore, traders resort to profit-taking on their USD longs heading into the US CPI showdown, thereby capping the downside of the Gold price.

The next directional move in the bright metal hinges on the outcome of the US inflation data release. Markets are expecting the headline annual US CPI to rise 2.4% in April, at the same pace as in March. The core CPI inflation is set to remain at 2.8% over the year in the same period.

An upside surprise to the CPI figures would double down on the renewed hawkish sentiment surrounding the Fed, bolstering the USD rally while fuelling a fresh decline in the non-interest-bearing Gold price. On the other hand, an unexpected slowdown in the US CPI growth could revive expectations of more than two Fed rate cuts, lending support to the bullion.

However, any headlines from the Trump administration regarding potential trade deals with the US’ major trading partners could outweigh the market reaction to the US CPI data, driving the Gold price action.

Speeches from Fed policymakers will also be closely scrutinized.

Gold price technical analysis: Daily chart

Gold price cracked the 21-day Simple Moving Average (SMA), then at $3,313 on a daily closing basis on Monday, opening the door for further downside.  

The 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) also turned bearish after closing below the midline for the first time since early April.

At the time of this press, the leading indicator is flirting with the midline, near 49, as buyers vie for control.

Thus, it remains to be seen if a hotter-than-expected US CPI data fuel a fresh leg down in Gold price toward the 50-day SMA at $3,145.

The next healthy support levels are seen at the $3,100 round level and the April 10 low of $3,072.

In case the US CPI data surprises to the downside, Gold price could recapture the 21-day SMA support-turned-resistance, now at $3,311. Acceptance above that level will call for a test of the falling trendline resistance at $3,430, where the intermittent resistance aligns.

A sustained move above that level will open the door toward the record high of $3,500. 

• Gold price trades in negative territory around $3,235 in Tuesday’s Asian session. 
• US and China agreed to de-escalate their trade war by lowering import tariffs on each other’s goods for 90 days. 
• Traders brace for the US April CPI inflation report, which is due later on Tuesday. 

The Gold price (XAU/USD) edges lower to around $3,235 during the early Asian session on Tuesday. The precious metal remains on the defensive due to a stronger US Dollar (USD), higher US yields, and optimism on the US-China trade deal. Later on Tuesday, traders will take more cues from the US April Consumer Price Index (CPI) report.

Improved risk sentiment following the announcement of a temporary deal between the United States (US) and China to reduce tariffs has weighed on the safe-haven asset, like the Gold price. The US will cut extra tariffs it imposed on Chinese imports in April this year to 30% from 145%, and Chinese duties on US imports will be reduced to 10% from 125%. The fresh measures are effective for 90 days.

“The de-escalation of tensions between China and the US is reducing the demand for safe haven assets like gold,” said Giovanni Staunovo, analyst at Swiss bank and London bullion clearer UBS.

Gold traders brace for the US CPI inflation data on Tuesday, which might offer some hints about the US Federal Reserve’s (Fed) policy path. The headline CPI is expected to show an increase of 2.4% YoY in April, while the core CPI is projected to show a rise of 2.8% YoY in the same report period.

Swap markets have priced in the Fed’s first 25 basis points (bps) rate cut for the September meeting, and they expect two additional rate reductions towards the end of the year. Last week, they indicated three cuts this year, with a change likely as soon as July.  

India’s Prime Minister Narendra Modi said on Monday that operations against Pakistan have only been kept in abeyance, and the future will depend on their behaviour. Meanwhile, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky noted he is prepared to meet Russian President Vladimir Putin this week, shortly after Trump urged him to “immediately” accept the Russian leader’s offer to hold peace talks in Turkey. Any signs of escalating geopolitical tensions could boost the safe-haven flows, benefiting the yellow metal.

Gold price retains positive bias in the longer term

Gold price trades on a negative note on the day. According to the daily timeframe, the constructive outlook of the precious metal remains intact, characterized by the price holding above the key 100-day Exponential Moving Average. However, further consolidation ot temporary sell-off cannot be ruled out as the 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) is located below the midline.

On the bright side, the first upside barrier to watch is $3,347, the high of May 9. Any follow-through buying above this level could pave the way to $3,432, the upper boundary of the Bollinger Band. Further north, the next hurdle is seen at the all-time high of $3,500.

In the bearish case, the $3,200 psychological level acts as an initial support level for XAU/USD. The additional downside filter emerges at $3,142, the high of April 2.

XAU/USD Current price: $3,224.66

• De-escalating trade tensions between the US and China brought back optimism.
• The US will release the April Consumer Price Index (CPI) on Tuesday.
• XAU/USD nears May monthly low and aims to break below it.

Gold prices gapped lower at the weekly opening, falling towards $3,207.82, its lowest in roughly two weeks amid returning optimism. Financial markets welcome headlines indicating the United States (US) and China agreed to rollback tit-for-that tariffs for 90 days, de-escalating trade war tensions.

Beijing and Washington made a joint announcement reporting the US will cut extra levies on China from the current 145% to 30%. Reciprocally, China will charge 10% on US imports, down from the previously announced 125%.

The US Dollar (USD) holds on to most of its intraday gains across the FX board, albeit Wall Street retreating from intraday peaks put a halt to the USD rally. Still, US indexes retain substantial intraday gains, with the risk-on mood set to continue As per XAU/USD, the pair keeps pressuring the aforementioned low, and seems poised to extend the slide.

On Tuesday, the focus changes to US data, as the country will release the April Consumer Price Index (CPI), foreseen stable at 2.4% YoY. On a monthly basis, the CPI is foreseen up by 0.3% after falling 0.1% in March.

XAU/USD short-term technical outlook

As long as optimism prevails, XAU/USD would remain under pressure. The rally to record highs was due to fears over a global economic slowdown and mounting inflationary pressures due to tariffs. There are no fears without tariffs.

Technically, the daily chart for XAU/USD shows the pair fell below a now flat 20 Simple Moving Average (SMA) while still far above bullish 100 and 200 SMAs. Technical indicators, in the meantime, head firmly south after crossing their midlines into negative territory, anticipating lower lows ahead.

The 4-hour chart shows XAU/USD is battling around a mildly bullish 200 SMA, while a bearish 20 SMA crosses below the 100 SMA in the $3,320 area. At the same time, the Momentum indicator resumed its decline within negative levels, while the Relative Strength Index (RSI) indicator consolidates at around 29, without signs of downward exhaustion. A break through the daily low exposes May monthly low at $3,202.03, while once below the latter, a steeper decline is on the table.

Support levels: 3,202.00 3,187.20 3,176.45

Resistance levels: 3,234.40 3,248.50 3,263.85

Platinum price succeeded to confirm surpassing the barrier at $983.00, activating the suggested bullish rally, to achieve the initial target by reaching $1002.00, the stability of the price above the breached barrier is required for taking advantage of the main indicators positivity, to attempt to record new gains by its rally towards 61.8%Fibonacci correction level at $1017.00.

The price decline below $983.00 and providing negative close will cancel the bullish suggestion, which forces the price to suffer several losses by reaching $965.00, then press on the support at $950.00.

The expected trading range for today is between $990.00 and $1017.00

Trend forecast: Bullish

Fortinet’s stock price (FTNT) fell in latest intraday trading, trespassing the support of the 50-day SMA and exposing the stock to more negative pressure, amid negative signals from the Stochastic after reaching overbought levels, and amid the dominance of the downward correctional wave in the short term.

Therefore we expect the price to decline and target the support of $91.25, provided the psychological resistance of $100.00 holds on.

Today’s price forecast: Bearish

Natural gas futures are trading around $3.734, approaching the upper boundary of a well-defined ascending channel. The price recently pulled back from the $3.825 resistance level, a critical barrier that has capped gains in recent sessions. This level represents a key psychological zone for traders, with a potential breakout setting the stage for a move toward $3.926, followed by the significant $4.020 resistance.

On the downside, immediate support lies at $3.722, aligning closely with the lower trendline of the ascending channel. A break below this level could expose natural gas to further downside toward the $3.626 support, followed by the 50-day EMA at $3.644, which acts as a critical support for the ongoing uptrend.

Natural gas is testing the upper boundary of its ascending channel, with a break above $3.825 potentially signaling a continuation toward $3.926. However, a pullback below $3.722 could risk a deeper correction, targeting the $3.626 area.

WTI Oil Price Forecast

Silver Struggles as Risk Sentiment Weighs on Prices

Silver (XAG/USD) is trading around $32.91, facing similar pressure as traders digest the latest trade headlines. The metal remains under pressure despite geopolitical uncertainties, as a stronger dollar and rising risk appetite diminish its safe-haven appeal.

However, silver has managed to hold above the critical $32.75 support level, suggesting that buyers are still active at lower levels. According to the latest data, silver is down nearly 3% from its monthly high of $33.85, reflecting the broader shift toward riskier assets.

Focus Shifts to US Inflation and Fed Policy

Looking ahead, traders will focus on US inflation data due this week, which could provide further direction for gold and silver. The Consumer Price Index (CPI) is expected to show a 4.1% year-over-year increase, a potential sign that inflation remains sticky despite recent Fed rate hikes.

Additionally, Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s speech on Thursday will be closely watched for insights into the central bank’s outlook on future rate cuts.

Short-Term Forecast

Gold faces near-term pressure, with a break below $3,259 potentially signaling a deeper correction toward $3,211, while silver must clear $33.25 to confirm an uptrend.

Gold Prices Forecast: Technical Analysis

Despite the last weak trading of the EURJPY pair, it success to settle above the breached barrier at 193.35 level represents a main factor for confirming the domination of the bullish track, to fluctuate near 193.85, attempting to ease the way towards more of the bullish waves.

Stochastic approach from 80 level will increase the chances of gathering the positive momentum, to keep waiting for recording the target near 164.20, then repeats the attempts of pressing on the resistance near 164.90, to form the next target of the near trading.

The expected trading range for today is between 163.30 and 164.90

Trend forecast: Bullish

Platinum price succeeded to confirm surpassing the barrier at $983.00, activating the suggested bullish rally, to achieve the initial target by reaching $1002.00, the stability of the price above the breached barrier is required for taking advantage of the main indicators positivity, to attempt to record new gains by its rally towards 61.8%Fibonacci correction level at $1017.00.

The price decline below $983.00 and providing negative close will cancel the bullish suggestion, which forces the price to suffer several losses by reaching $965.00, then press on the support at $950.00.

The expected trading range for today is between $990.00 and $1017.00

Trend forecast: Bullish

• Silver price found support following news that Canadian mining company Pan American Silver plans to acquire MAG Silver Corp.
• Ongoing geopolitical tensions also underpinned the metal, as India issued a warning to Pakistan over recent ceasefire violations.
• Silver gains may be limited by a decline in safe-haven demand, driven by growing optimism around US-China trade talks.

Silver price (XAG/USD) is extending its gains for the third consecutive session, trading around $32.90 per troy ounce during Asian hours on Monday. The precious metal drew support from news that Canadian miner Pan American Silver will acquire MAG Silver Corp in a deal valuing the company at approximately $2.1 billion, according to Reuters.

The acquisition grants Pan American Silver access to MAG’s 44% stake in the high-grade Juanicipio Silver mine in Mexico, operated by Fresnillo, which owns the remaining 56%. The deal, unanimously approved by both companies’ boards, is expected to close in the second half of 2025.

Geopolitical tensions, meanwhile, continue to lend support to Silver. India warned Pakistan of potential retaliation over recent ceasefire violations, a claim denied by Pakistan’s military. Separately, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy expressed hope for a temporary ceasefire with Russia starting Monday, May 12, but Moscow rejected the proposal, calling instead for direct talks without preconditions.

However, gains in Silver may be capped by easing safe-haven demand amid growing optimism surrounding US-China trade relations. Over the weekend, both countries concluded productive discussions, with Beijing set to launch formal negotiations and Washington citing progress toward an agreement.

Further weighing on Silver, the Federal Reserve last week flagged inflation and labor market risks, with Chair Jerome Powell ruling out a preemptive rate cut in response to tariff-related economic concerns.