• Gold price rebounds to around $3,115 in Thursday’s late American session. 
• The heightened economic uncertainty supports the safe-haven demand, supporting the Gold price. 
• Traders await the US March employment data, which is due later on Friday. 

Gold price (XAU/USD) recovers some lost ground to near $3,115 during the late American session on Thursday after facing some profit-taking in the previous session. Escalating concerns over a global trade war and ongoing geopolitical risks boost the Gold price, a traditional safe-haven asset. 

The precious metal trims losses after falling over 2% from an all-time high, as a broader market selloff triggered by US President Donald Trump’s reciprocal tariffs policy infected Gold traders. Traders attributed gold’s dip to profit-taking and investors selling some of their bullion holdings to cover losses in other asset classes.

However, the downside for the yellow metal might be capped amid the fears that Trump’s tariffs could dampen economic growth. The heightened uncertainty could boost the safe-haven flows, benefiting the Gold price. “As the market sold-off on the deleveraging pressures, the market was looking for buying opportunities on the dip,” said Peter Grant, vice president and senior metals strategist at Zaner Metals.

All eyes will be on the US March employment data on Friday, including Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP), Unemployment Rate and Average Hourly Earnings. In case of the stronger-than-expected outcome, this could lift the Greenback and cap the upside for the USD-denominated commodity price. Additionally, Federal Reserve (Fed) Chair Jerome Powell, Michael Barr, and Christopher Waller are set to speak later on the same day. 

Bullish Price Action

Today’s price movement indicates a possible continuation of the upward trend that originated from the March 27 swing low of $3.73. Since a lower swing high was established at $4.26 in March, that is the next price target for natural gas. However, a bull breakout above that swing high will trigger a continuation of a bull trend and a bullish reversal of the recent declining price correction. Each signal would provide another piece of technical evidence showing Improving demand for natural gas.

Confluence Target at $4.56

If bullish momentum can now be sustained, there is an initial upside target for natural gas around $4.56. That price level is identified by two methods. It is a 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level, and it marks the initial target for a rising ABCD pattern. When two or more indicators point to a similar price level, that price area can sometimes act like a magnet, pulling price towards it. Whether that happens with natural gas or not remains to be seen. But it certainly could happen.

On Track for Bullish Weekly Candle Pattern

Since there is only one more trading day left to the week, natural gas looks likely to end the week confirming a one-week bullish reversal that triggered this week on the weekly chart. A weekly close above last week’s high of $4.10 would confirm the breakout on the larger time frame. Also, there is a possibility that the one-week pattern this week will be a hammer candlestick pattern. However, in its current pattern position, it would represent upward momentum rather than the potential for a bullish reversal, as a bullish reversal already triggered.

For a look at all of today’s economic events, check out our economic calendar.

• Silver price falls vertically below $32.00 after US President Trump announces reciprocal tariffs.
• A significant increase in the import duty on China has weighed on the Silver’s demand outlook.
• Investors await the US NFP data, which will influence Fed’s monetary policy outlook.

Silver price is down almost 5% during North American trading hours on Thursday, tests territory below $32.00. The price of the white metal has become vulnerable after United States (US) President Donald Trump unveiled a detailed reciprocal tariff plan for his trading partners.

The “Buy the Rumour and Sell the News” indicator forced traders to trigger the sell button for the Silver price. The previous metal was performing strongly, along with Gold, from the past few months as investors were increasingly confident that Trump’s tariffs would be inflationary and weigh on economic growth globally, including in the US. Technically, the appeal of the Silver price increases if investors anticipate heightening global economic tensions.

Fears of a US economic slowdown have also weighed on the US Dollar (USD). The US Dollar Index (DXY), which tracks the Greenback’s value against six major currencies, nosedives to near 101.30, the lowest level seen in six months.

Additionally, escalated concerns over the demand of Silver by industries has also sent its price strongly on the ground. On Wednesday, Donald Trump announced a 34% import duty on China, in addition to the 20% levy already imposed for pouring drugs into the US economy. A significant increase in tariffs by Trump on China is expected to dampen its manufacturing sector. Such a scenario will weaken the demand for Silver by Chinese firms, given its application in various industries such as Electric Vehicles (EV), electronics, and solar energy.

Going forward, investors will focus on the US Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) data for March, which will be published on Friday. The employment data will influence market expectations for the Federal Reserve’s (Fed) monetary policy outlook.

Silver technical analysis

Silver price falls like a house of cards after failing to revisit the flat border of the Ascending Triangle chart pattern formation on the daily timeframe near the October 22 high of $34.87. The upward-sloping border of the above-mentioned chart pattern is placed from the August 8 low of $26.45. Technically, the Ascending Triangle pattern indicates indecisiveness among market participants.

The Silver price slides below the 20-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA), which is around $33.35, indicating that the near-term trend has turned bearish.

The 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) slumps to near 40.00. A bullish momentum would emerge if the RSI fails to hold the 40.00 level.

Looking down, the February 28 low of $30.82 will act as key support for the Silver price. While, the October 22 high of $34.87 will be the major barrier.

Silver daily chart

Bitcoin price settled lower in the intraday levels, amid ongoing negative pressure due to trading below the 50-candle SMA, coupled with negative signals from the Stochastic, and amid the dominance of the main downward trend as the price trades alongside the trend line.

XAU/USD Current price: $3,105.62

• US President Donald Trump’s reciprocal tariffs triggered panic across financial boards.
• The US will publish the March Nonfarm Payrolls report on Friday.
• XAU/USD corrective slide may extend if the pair breaks below $3,040.

Spot Gold battles to retain the $3,100 threshold in the American session, easing from a fresh all-time high of $3,167.68. The XAU/USD pair soared during Asian trading hours, as market players panicked following United States (US) President Donald Trump, “Liberation Day” announcement.

In a press conference in the Rose Garden on Wednesday, Trump detailed widespread tariffs on roughly 180 different countries, with a baseline of 10%. Levies on China reached 54% after an additional 34% was added to the previously announced 20%. The EU got 20%, while some Asian countries like Vietnam or Cambodia will pay taxes of over 40% to sell their goods into the US.

Financial markets panicked amid speculation that inflation would soar while economic progress would stall. Concerns about a US recession rose, alongside speculation that the Federal Reserve (Fed) will have to adjust its monetary policy accordingly. The US Dollar plummeted, and so did stock markets around the world.

Meanwhile, the US will release the March Nonfarm Payrolls report on Friday. The country is expected to have added 135K, following the 151K gained in February. The Unemployment Rate is foreseen steady at 4.1% while wage inflation is seen pretty much unchanged, up by 0.3% on a monthly basis and 3.9% from a year earlier.

XAU/USD short-term technical outlook

As per XAU/USD, the pair retreated sharply after reaching the aforementioned high amid profit taking, with buyers finally returning at around $3,050. From a technical point of view, Gold has a limited bearish scope, according to technical readings in the daily chart. The intraday slide stalled far above a bullish 20 Simple Moving Average (SMA), currently at around $3,022. The 100 and 200 SMAs, in the meantime, maintain their sharp upward slopes far below the shorter one. Finally, technical indicators ease from extreme readings, yet remain far above their midlines, not enough to confirm a top in place.

The XAU/USD pair 4-hour chart shows XAU/USD trading below a now flat 20 SMA, but still well above a bullish 100 SMA, providing support at around $3,040. Technical indicators, in the meantime, have recovered from near oversold readings to stabilize within negative levels. A steep decline could take place on a break below the mentioned $3,040 region.

Support levels: 3,086.70 3,073.90 3,061.10   

Resistance levels: 3,123.10 3,136.70 3,150.00

Current price action shows natural gas testing major support at $3.924. If this level holds, the market could target minor resistance at $4.094, followed by $4.253. The critical trigger point for a decisive upside breakout sits at $4.317. Conversely, a breakdown below current support could accelerate selling pressure toward $3.732, with further downside risk to the major pivot at $3.350.

Weather Catalysts and Demand Factors

The Commodity Weather Group reports a notable shift to cooler temperatures for the eastern United States from April 7-11, potentially boosting heating demand. This weather pattern emerges as US electricity output shows positive growth trends, with the Edison Electric Institute reporting that total lower-48 electricity output rose 0.9% year-over-year to 72,289 GWh for the week ended March 22, while the 52-week period showed a stronger 3.55% increase.

Supply and Production Metrics

Lower-48 state dry gas production stood at 105 bcf/day (+2.9% y/y) on Wednesday, while domestic demand registered at 74.2 bcf/day (-5.2% y/y). LNG net flows to export terminals were 14.2 bcf/day, down 9.6% week-over-week. The Baker Hughes rig count showed active natural gas drilling rigs increased by 1 to 103 for the week ending March 28, which remains significantly below the 5-1/4 year high of 166 rigs recorded in September 2022.

Storage Outlook and Market Forecast

Thursday’s EIA storage report is projected to show a build of approximately 25-29 Bcf, considerably bearish compared to the five-year average draw of -13 Bcf. Despite this upcoming injection, the broader storage picture remains supportive for prices. Current inventories stand at 1,744 Bcf, which is 557 Bcf below last year and 122 Bcf below the five-year average. BloombergNEF projects US gas storage will run 10% below the five-year average this summer, suggesting sustained price support.

The longer-term outlook appears increasingly bullish as President Trump’s decision to lift restrictions on LNG export projects advances consideration for approximately a dozen new facilities, which would significantly boost demand for US natural gas and provide structural price support.

More Information in our Economic Calendar.

Platinum price declined below the 50% Fibonacci retracement level at $983, and tackled $955.60, and retested this barrier anew, while settling above the 55 SMA.

As major indicators conflict, the price will likely engage in sideways trading for some time, but a drop below the 55 SMA would activate the negative path and send the price towards $950.00, representing the 50% Fibonacci retracement level. 

Expected trading range today is between $950.00 and $985.

Today’s price forecast: Bearish 

• Silver price attracts some sellers to around $33.15 in Thursday’s early European session, down 2.25% on the day. 
• The positive view of Silver prevails above the key 100-day EMA, but further consolidation cannot be ruled out.   
• The immediate resistance level emerges at $34.23; the first support level to watch is $32.66.

The Silver price (XAG/USD) falls to near $33.15 during the early European session on Thursday, pressured by some profit-taking. Nonetheless, the downside for the white metal might be limited as US President Donald Trump announced sweeping new global tariffs on Wednesday, raising the fears of a widening trade war. 

According to the daily chart, the bullish trend of Silver remains in place as the commodity is well-supported above the key 100-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA). However, the 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) hovers around the midline, displaying neutral momentum in the near term. This suggests that further consolidation cannot be ruled out.

The immediate resistance level for white metal emerges at $34.23, the high of March 18. Further north, the next hurdle to watch is the $34.60-$34.70 zone, representing the high of March 28 and the upper boundary of the Bollinger Band. A decisive break above the mentioned level could pave the way to the $35.00 psychological level. 

On the flip side, the first downside target for the silver price is seen at $32.66, the low of March 21. Sustained trading below the mentioned level could see a drop to the next contention level at $31.89, the 100-day EMA. Any follow-through selling could expose $30.82, the low of February 28. 

Silver price (XAG/USD) daily chart

EUR/USD surged in latest intraday trading and managed to pierce the pivotal resistance of $1.0945, amid the dominance of the main upward trend, after the price exited a downward correctional price channel previously, embarking on a new upward wave.

Silver Trails Behind as Industrial Pressure Mounts

Silver (XAG/USD) is trading at $33.28, having touched a session low of $33.07. Despite gold’s upward momentum, silver’s response has been more restrained, weighed down by its industrial use case.

With growth forecasts under pressure, traders remain cautious on silver exposure. The metal continues to trade below the key pivot of $33.49, limiting upside prospects in the near term.

Rate Cut Odds Rise as Treasury Yields Slide

Markets are now pricing in a 70% chance of a Federal Reserve rate cut in June, according to CME FedWatch. The 10-year Treasury yield dropped to 4.15%, driven by fears that tariff-driven weakness could prompt the Fed to act.

A weaker U.S. dollar—pressured by falling yields—has further supported gold, making it more attractive to non-dollar holders.

Jobs Data Overlooked as Eyes Turn to NFP

The ADP employment report surprised to the upside with 155,000 jobs added, exceeding the 105,000 forecast. However, markets shrugged it off, focusing instead on upcoming data. Weekly jobless claims, ISM Services PMI, and especially Friday’s Nonfarm Payrolls report are now in focus as traders weigh how deeply tariffs could impact the broader economy.

Short-Term Forecast

Gold remains bullish above $3,116 amid rising Fed cut bets and trade risks. Silver faces pressure below $33.49, with momentum tilted bearish unless key resistance levels are reclaimed.