Support at Risk

Support for the past two days at $3.93 is near the prior interim swing low from mid-March. Moreover, a 61.8% Fibonacci retracement also was completed. However, given today’s lower daily high and the fact that the 20-Day MA has turned down, the next lower potential support level around the 50-Day MA, looks likely to be tested. It is now at $3.88. The 50-Day line is joined by the 78.6% retracement level at $3.84. That price level has added significance as it is this week’s low so far. It begins a pattern of higher weekly lows following the bullish reversal that triggered earlier this week on the weekly chart (not shown).

Weekly Bullish Pattern Retained

This means that the weekly chart just began a new potential upswing this week. Therefore, the bias should be towards the upside. However, that doesn’t mean that the current pullback can’t go lower first. But as long as natural gas remains above this week’s low, it retains the weekly bull trend price structure. If there is a sustained reclaim of the 20-Day MA and today’s high prior to a deeper decline, then the near-term outlook would switch to bullish.

Upside Targets

The first advance off the recent higher swing low of $3.73 retraced a little less than 50% of the recent downswing. Therefore, the 50% retracement at $4.32 would mark an upside target, along with the interim swing high at $4.37. Further up is the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level at $4.45. A daily close above today’s high and the 20-Day MA would indicate strength that could then lead to a bullish breakout above the recent swing high at $4.25. It is also possible that natural gas consolidates for a little while and takes a rest by moving relatively sideways.

For a look at all of today’s economic events, check out our economic calendar.

Gold price rose in latest intraday trading, boosted by a technical pattern that’s complementary to the main upward trend, the Flag pattern, while trading alongside the secondary short-term trend line, with positive signals from the Stochastic, coupled with ongoing positive support due to trading above the 50-candle SMA.

US crude oil price turned its early losses into mild gains in latest intraday trading as it seeks a bottom to bounce it higher and help it gather necessary positive momentum to rebound, amid the dominance of the upward correctional trend in the short term, while a positive divergence starts to form in the Stochastic, sending out positive signals.

Retains Channel Breakout

Notice that there is a higher daily low today and that support for the past two days was at a prior top trend channel line (purple). That line is the top of a long-term channel starting from February 2024. Signs of support at a prior resistance line is a sign of strengthening.

Nonetheless, what happens next is what matters. Is the bull channel breakout sustained or is it followed by a decline back into the channel. There is also a smaller rising parallel trend channel (blue) on the chart marking resistance around Tuesday’s high. That high also completed a 261.8% retracement of the bearish correction begun in the second half of February at $3,153.

Above $3,153 is $3,170

Especially if gold can stay above the top purple channel line, it has a chance to continue towards higher potential targets. Above the 261.8% retracement level is a small target range from $3,170 to $3,177, consisting of the 250% retracement of the October 2024 decline, and the initial target from a rising ABCD pattern, respectively.

Bearish Shooting Start Triggers Below $3,101

On the downside, a drop below Wednesday’s low of $3,108 puts Tuesday’s low of $3,101 at risk of failing as well. Gold would then be back below the top channel line and likely heading towards a test of support around the prior pivot around $3,077, and the recent high at $3,058. Further down is potential support at the 20-Day MA, now at $3,012.

For a look at all of today’s economic events, check out our economic calendar.

• Silver price climbs to near $34.00 ahead of Trump’s tariff announcement.
• Trump’s reciprocal tariffs will be unfavorable for the global economy, including the US.
• Investors also await the US ADP Employment Change data for March.

Silver price (XAG/USD) advances to near $34.00 during European trading hours on Wednesday. The white metal moves higher as investors rush to safe-haven assets amid caution ahead of the announcement of reciprocal tariffs by United States (US) President Donald Trump at 20:00 GMT.

US President Trump is poised to announce hefty tariffs on his trading partners in an attempt to fix what he calls unfair trade participants to make “America wealthy again”. According to the Washington Post, the White House aides have drafted a proposal to impose tariffs of around 20% on most imports to the US.

Theoretically, the appeal of the US Dollar (US) should have increased in an uncertain economic environment, but it is struggling to attract bids as Trump’s tariffs will also weigh on the US economic outlook. Additionally, Trump’s tariffs will also boost inflationary pressures in the near term. Such a scenario would allow the Federal Reserve (Fed) to keep interest rates in the current range of 4.25%-4.50% for longer.

Historically, Fed’s restrictive monetary policy stance bodes poorly for non-yielding assets, such as Silver.

In today’s session, investors will also focus on the ADP Employment Change data for March, which will be published at 12:15 GMT. The agency is expected to show that private employers added 105K fresh workers, higher than 77K addition recorded in February.

Silver technical analysis

Silver price resumes its upside move towards the flat border of the Ascending Triangle chart pattern formation on the daily timeframe near the October 22 high of $34.87. The upward-sloping border of the above-mentioned chart pattern is placed from the August 8 low of $26.45. Technically, the Ascending Triangle pattern indicates indecisiveness among market participants.

The 20-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) near $33.44 continues to provide support to the Silver price.

The 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) strives to break above 60.00. A bullish momentum would emerge if the RSI holds above 60.00.

Looking down, the March 6 high of $32.77 will act as key support for the Silver price. While, the October 22 high of $34.87 will be the major barrier.

Silver daily chart

EUR/USD price kept moving within a tight range of sideways trading in the intraday levels, hurt by negative pressure from trading below the 50-candle SMA, while dominated by the downward correctional trend as the price trades within a price channel, with positive signals emerging from the Stochastic after reaching oversold levels.

XAU/USD Current price: $3,130.31

• Better than anticipated United States data underpinned the market mood.
• US President Donald Trump will announce fresh tariffs through a press conference.
• XAU/USD consolidates near record highs, bulls retain control in the near term.

Spot Gold consolidated for most of this Wednesday, hovering around the $3,130 level and confined to Tuesday’s range. The XAU/USD trades marginally higher on a daily basis in the mid-American session, with speculative interest awaiting United States (US) President Donald Trump’s press conference.

The US President is about to announce his decision on reciprocal tariffs in a press conference scheduled for 20:00 GMT. Market talks suggest such levies will come into effect right after the announcement, as hinted by US officials on Tuesday. The extent of taxes, however, remains a mystery.

The mood somehow improved after Wall Street’s opening, with the three major indexes trading in the green, despite the sour tone of their European counterparts. Better than anticipated US data indeed underpinned the mood.

The March ADP Employment Change report showed that the private sector created 155K new jobs in the month, much better than the 105K expected or the previous revised 84K. Additionally, February Factory Orders were up 0.6%, beating the 0.5% anticipated.

XAU/USD short-term technical outlook

From a technical point of view, the daily chart for the XAU/USD pair shows it could extend its advance. The pair trades above all its moving averages, with the 20 Simple Moving Average (SMA) accelerating north and providing dynamic support at around $3,012.90. At the same time, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) indicator resumed its advance within overbought levels, while the Momentum indicator turned south, but holds within positive levels, not enough to confirm another leg south.

In the near term, and according to the 4-hour chart buyers retain control. A bullish 20 SMA attracted buyers throughout the day, currently at $3.115.00. The 100 and 200 SMAs, in the meantime, gain upward traction far below the shorter one. Finally, the Momentum indicator aims marginally lower at around its midline, while the RSI indicator consolidates at around 62, limiting the bearish scope for XAU/USD.

Support levels: 3,123.60 3,012.90 3,097.50

Resistance levels: 3,136.70 3,150.00 3,175.00

Despite the weakness of latest natural gas trading, as the Stochastic slips below 50, the price is still holding within the ascending channel shown in the attached chart, with $3.750 forming as an important support, reinforcing the upward trend in the short and medium terms. 

The price will likely gather momentum and rush towards $4.260, opening the door for more targets at $4.480 then $4.620.

Expected trading range today is between the $3.880 support and the $4.260 resistance.

Today’s price forecast: Bullish

Copper price remained under pressure by persistently trading below $5.1300 and pressuring the $5.00 barrier, in an attempt to resume its profit-taking operations.

As the Stochastic holds near the 20 level and sends out negative signals, it’ll only reinforce the downward correctional path towards $4.9100 then $4.8100.

Expected trading range today is between the $4.9100 support and the $5.1000 resistance.

Today’s price forecast: Bearish

 Platinum price closed once more below the stable top of $1007.00, maintaining the chances of activating the downward path, with negative signals from the Stochastic, while the price creeped below the 50% Fibonacci retracement level at $983.

We expect the price to tackle $964 soon and register a new low to confirm the downward path, thus targeting $955.00 then $941.00 in upcoming trading. 

Expected trading range today is between the $964 support and the $995 resistance.

Today’s price forecast: Bearish