US crude oil price settled higher in latest intraday trading after reaching our price target of $70.000, bouncing off it lower amid negative signals from the Stochastic after reaching overbought levels in a contradiction to the price’s action, thus forming a negative divergence, which could boost the negative scenario.

It comes amid the dominance of the upward correctional trend as the price moves alongside the trend line, with ongoing positive pressure due to trading above the 50-candle SMA.

• Gold price picks up bids once again above $3,000 but remains in a familiar range on Thursday.
• The US Dollar corrects from three-week highs on Trump’s tariff exemption and economic worries.
• Gold buyers keep their sights on record high amid bullish daily technical setup.  

Gold price is finding fresh demand above $3,000 early Thursday, following a lacklustre performance on Wednesday. Gold buyers try their luck and aim for the record high of $3,058 once again as they near Friday’s US inflation test.

Gold price remains at the mercy of tariff developments

So far in Thursday’s trading, Gold price is capitalizing on a fresh US Dollar (USD) pullback from three-week highs against its major rivals on reduced haven demand. Markets breathed a sigh of relief after US President Donald Trump announced earlier in the Asian session a one-month tariff exemption for auto parts imports from his new 25% automotive tariffs.

Further, US economic slowdown concerns resurfaced as traders assess the impact on Trump’s tariffs, lifting the traditional store of value Gold at the expense of the US Dollar.

However, it remains to be seen if Gold price sustains the upswing, especially after Wednesday’s subdued price action. The US final Gross Domestic Product (GDP) revision for the fourth quarter and the weekly Jobless Claims data will likely play a second fiddle to developments surrounding US tariffs. Speeches from several Federal Reserve (Fed) policymakers will be closely eyed.

Gold price fluctuated in a narrow range on Wednesday, initially holding ground amid renewed tariff threats from US President Donald Trump. According to reports, Trump was set to impose three escalating levels of tariffs, with Canada likely to be on the lower end of the April 2 tariffs. Bloomberg News reported that the US President “plans to implement copper import tariffs within weeks.”

These reports initially weighed on the USD, allowing Gold price to build on Tuesday’s rebound but the tide turned in favor of the Greenback after Trump late on Wednesday re-announced plans for long-promised 25% tariffs on automotive imports, which are set to go into effect on April 2.

Fresh tariff threats spooked markets and revived the safety bids for the US Dollar. Meanwhile, hawkish commentary from Fed policymakers also underpinned the US Dollar recovery, wiping out the earlier gains in Gold price to settle almost unchanged on the day.

Amid increased upside risks to the inflation outlook, courtesy of Trump’s tariffs, St Louis Fed President Alberto Musalem said on Wednesday the Fed had no urgency to cut rates. Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari said the Fed should stay put amid continued policy uncertainty, per Reuters.

Gold price technical analysis: Daily chart

The technical setup on the daily chart favors buyers, with their sights set on the ascending triangle target, measured at $3,080.

The 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) is trending higher, currently at 67, backing the upside.

Gold price appears poised to retake the record high of $3,058 on its way to achieving the triangle target of $3,080.

Conversely, the $3,000 round level will emerge as a powerful support. The next downside cap is aligned at the previous week’s low of $2,982.  

Further south, the 21-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) and the triangle support confluence at $2,963 will be a tough nut to crack for sellers.

(This story was corrected on March 27 at 5:57 to say that “The US Dollar corrects from three-week highs,” not lows.)

• Silver retreats 0.32%  after hitting $33.92, pressured by US Dollar rebound despite recent bullish momentum.
• RSI suggests bulls may attempt another push above $34.00 toward key resistance at $34.86.
• Breakdown below $33.00 exposes support at $32.66, followed by 50-day SMA near $32.04.

Silver price retreats by 0.32% after reaching a four-day high of $33.92. At the time of writing, XAG/USD trades at $33.60, undermined by the strength of the US Dollar, which has registered solid gains.

XAG/USD Price Forecast: Technical outlook

After registering a solid rally on Tuesday, Silver failed to break the $34.00 mark, which opened the door for sellers, capping the grey metal’s advance to challenging yearly peaks, near $34.23.

Momentum favors XAG/USD upside as depicted by the Relative Strength Index (RSI), which, is about to surpass the previous peak. Therefore, short-term further upside is seen.

XAG/USD first resistance would be the March 26 high at $33.92. Once cleared the next stop would be the $34.00 figure, followed by last October’s monthly peak at $34.86.

Conversely, if XAG/USD slips beneath $33.00, immediate support emerges at the March 21 low of $32.66. Once hurdled, the next stop is the 50-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) at $32.04.

XAG/USD Price Chart – Daily

US crude oil price settled higher in latest intraday trading after reaching our price target of $70.000, bouncing off it lower amid negative signals from the Stochastic after reaching overbought levels in a contradiction to the price’s action, thus forming a negative divergence, which could boost the negative scenario.

It comes amid the dominance of the upward correctional trend as the price moves alongside the trend line, with ongoing positive pressure due to trading above the 50-candle SMA.

XAU/USD Current price: $3,016.75

• US President Donald Trump’s trade war exacerbates uncertainty levels.
• The sentiment soured amid expectations of additional US levies.
• XAU/USD trades with a softer tone, but holds within familiar levels.

Gold price is stable on Wednesday, hovering in a tight range around its daily opening. The bright metal failed to attract fresh buyers despite fresh US Dollar (USD) strength and a generally sour mood. Wall Street turned red after the opening, reflecting the risk-off sentiment.

Concerns gyrate around United States (US) President Donald Trump’s tariff announcements, with the latest on the matter indicating he is preparing auto tariffs and will unveil his plan as soon as today. His massive levies on US imports from around the world have triggered concerns among authorities and representatives from major economies, as such taxes could affect economic growth and inflation levels beyond the US. According to the latest data available, reciprocal tariffs will come into effect on April 2.

Meanwhile, US data was encouraging. The country released February Durable Goods Orders, which rose by 0.9%, beating the -1%. The latest update on the Q4 Gross Domestic Product (GDP) will be out on Thursday, alongside Initial Jobless Claims for the previous week.

Meanwhile, Federal Reserve (Fed) member Neel Kashkari reiterated that there is still job to be done regarding inflation, while adding he is still uncertain about the effects of tariffs. He added that he takes very seriously the hit to confidence, and that the Fed should sit were it is, referring to maintain a wait-and-see stance.

XAU/USD short-term technical outlook

The XAU/USD pair’s daily chart shows it trades around its daily opening, just below $3,020. The upward momentum faded, but the risk remains skewed to the upside, given that technical indicators hold well above their midlines, with modest upward slopes. At the same time, the pair keeps developing above all its moving averages, with a bullish 20 Simple Moving Average (SMA) providing support at around $2,960.

The 4-hour chart shows XAU/USD remains stuck around a mildly bearish 20 SMA while the 100 and 200 SMAs maintain their bullish slopes far below the current level. Technical indicators, in the meantime, head modestly lower just below their midlines, not enough to confirm a steeper decline.

Support levels: 2,999.30 2,984.70 2,970.20

Resistance levels: 3,030.50 3,047.40 3,060.00

Minor Bearish Signs Seen

A descending trend channel has been added to the chart as today’s high was also close to that line. And it will be closer to price action tomorrow. The price area around the line will either show signs of resistance or a breakout through the line will occur. But regardless of which, subsequent price behavior should be more revealing.

Given the pattern within the declining channel and the drop below the 50-Day MA yesterday, it seems like lower prices may be tested as support before the correction is complete. However, the short-term outlook could change if there is a decisive breakout above today’s high and then a daily close above the trendline and the 50% retracement level at $5.95, which represented support recently on the way down.

Dominated by Declining Channel

Notice that the price of natural gas is now near the top of the trend channel. If a decline below today’s low is triggered that could be enough to accelerate the bearish correction. In general, once price reverses from one side of the channel there is a tendency to start to move toward the other side, which is the lower channel line. Regardless of whether natural gas eventually falls to the lower channel line, it implies lower prices.

Although the next potential support zone is around the early-March interim swing low at $3.74, the progression of the bear trend may be strong enough to fall through it. If that occurs, then the next lower uptrend line is the area to watch for support and the integrity of the uptrend that the line is associated with.

For a look at all of today’s economic events, check out our economic calendar.

Natural gas prices fell and hit $3.810, thus approaching the support of $3.750, which is the key for deciding the overall trend in the near and medium term.

The price is now approaching the 55-day SMA support, which would reinforce its stability, while the Stochastic sends out positive signals, which boost the price further towards the resistance of $4.050, then $4.180.

Expected trading range today is between $3.750 and $4.050.

Today’s price forecast: Bullish as the support holds 

• Silver price grips gains as uncertainty over the global economic outlook due to the Trump-led trade war.
• US individuals are cautious over economic prospects under Trump’s leadership.
• Investors await the US PCE inflation for a fresh Fed monetary policy outlook.

Silver price (XAG/USD) holds onto gains near $33.80 in European trading hours on Wednesday. The white metal shows resilience as market participants are cautious over the United States (US) economic outlook under the leadership of President Donald Trump.

Fears of imposition of potential tariffs by Donald Trump on April 2 have dented the confidence of households in the economy. The US Conference Board reported on Tuesday that the Consumer Confidence, a leading indicator of individuals’ confidence in economic prospects, declined to 92.9, significantly lower than 100.1 seen in February. The scenario of heightened economic uncertainty often leads to an increase in the safe-haven demand of non-yielding assets, such as Silver.

However, Trump has teased that not all impending tariffs will come into effect on April 2 as he may give a “lot of countries” breaks on tariffs.

Meanwhile, the US Dollar Index (DXY), which tracks the Greenback’s value against six major currencies, trades sideways around the three-week high of 104.50. The US Dollar is expected to trade cautiously as investors expect Trump’s economic policies could result in an economic slowdown and a resurgence in inflationary pressures in the US economy.

This week, the major trigger for the US Dollar will be the US Personal Consumption Expenditure Price Index (PCE) data for February, which will be released on Friday. The inflation data will influence market expectations for the Federal Reserve’s (Fed) monetary policy outlook. The Silver price carries an inverse relationship with the degree of US interest rates.

Silver technical analysis

Silver price strives to revisit the flat border of the Ascending Triangle chart pattern formation on the daily timeframe near the October 22 high of $34.87. The upward-sloping border of the above-mentioned chart pattern is placed from the August 8 low of $26.45. Technically, the Ascending Triangle pattern indicates indecisiveness among market participants.

The 20-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) near $33.10 continues to provide support to the Silver price.

The 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) rebounds above 60.00, suggesting a resurgence in bullish momentum.

Looking down, the March 6 high of $32.77 will act as key support for the Silver price. While, the October 22 high of $34.87 will be the major barrier.

Silver daily chart

May arabica coffee (KCK25) today is down -4.90 (-1.23%), and May ICE robusta coffee (RMK25) is down -80 (-1.43%).

Coffee prices today erased an early rally and turned lower after meteorologist Climatempo forecast widespread showers for Brazil’s coffee-growing regions later this week.

Commodity Bulletin: From crude oil to coffee, this FREE newsletter is for industry pros and rookies alike

Coffee prices today initially moved higher, with arabica posting a 2-1/2 week high on weather concerns in Brazil and Vietnam. Cooxupe, Brazil’s largest arabica coffee co-operative, said high temperatures and below-normal rainfall last month in Brazil would negatively affect coffee yields this year. Brazil is the world’s largest producer of arabica coffee. Also, the Dak Lak weather office said last Friday that Vietnam’s main coffee-producing region, Central Highlands, is expected to get more hot weather and less rainfall for the March 21-31 period. Vietnam is the world’s largest producer of robusta coffee.

Continued supply fears are supporting coffee prices. On March 13, Cecafe reported that Brazil’s February green coffee exports fell -12% y/y to 3 million bags. Also, on January 28, Conab, Brazil’s government crop forecasting agency, forecasted that Brazil’s 2025/26 coffee crop would fall -4.4% y/y to a 3-year low of 51.81 million bags. Conab also cut its 2024 Brazil coffee crop estimate by -1.1% to 54.2 million bags from a September estimate of 54.8 million bags.

The current coffee inventory situation is mixed. ICE-monitored robusta coffee inventories rose to a 7-week high Tuesday of 4,414 lots. Conversely, ICE-monitored arabica coffee inventories fell to a 1-month low last Friday of 777,708 bags.

On the negative side for coffee, Marex Solutions said on March 7 that they expect the global coffee surplus in the 2025/26 season to widen to 1.2 million bags from +200,000 bags in the 2024/25 season.

Recent higher-than-normal rainfall in Brazil eases dry conditions and is negative for prices. Somar Meteorologia reported Monday that Brazil’s biggest arabica coffee growing area of Minas Gerais received 31.2 mm of rain in the week ended March 22, or 102% of the historical average.

A bearish factor for robusta coffee was the March 6 report from Vietnam’s General Statistics Office that showed Vietnam’s Feb coffee exports rose +6.6% y/y to 169,000 MT.

The impact of dry El Nino weather last year may lead to longer-term coffee crop damage in South and Central America. Rainfall in Brazil has consistently been below average since last April, damaging coffee trees during the all-important flowering stage and reducing the prospects for Brazil’s 2025/26 arabica coffee crop. Brazil has been facing the driest weather since 1981, according to the natural disaster monitoring center Cemaden. Also, Colombia, the world’s second-largest arabica producer, is slowly recovering from the El Nino-spurred drought last year.

Robusta coffee prices are underpinned by reduced robusta production. Due to drought, Vietnam’s coffee production in the 2023/24 crop year dropped by -20% to 1.472 MMT, the smallest crop in four years. The USDA FAS on May 31 projected that Vietnam’s robusta coffee production in the new marketing year of 2024/25 will dip slightly to 27.9 million bags from 28 million bags in the 2023/24 season. In addition, Vietnam’s General Statistics Office reported on January 10 that 2024 Vietnam coffee exports fell -17.1% y/y to 1.35 MMT. Also, the Vietnam Coffee and Cocoa Association on March 12 cut its 2024/25 Vietnam coffee production estimate to 26.5 million bags from a December estimate of 28 million bags.

News of larger global coffee exports is bearish for prices. Conab reported on February 4 that Brazil’s 2024 coffee exports rose +28.8% y/y to a record 50.5 million bags. However, ICO reported on February 6 that Dec global coffee exports fell -12.4% y/y to 10.73 million bags, and Oct-Dec global coffee exports fell -0.8% y/y to 32.25 million bags.

The USDA’s biannual report on December 18 was mixed for coffee prices. The USDA’s Foreign Agriculture Service (FAS) projected that world coffee production in 2024/25 will increase +4.0% y/y to 174.855 million bags, with a +1.5% increase in arabica production to 97.845 million bags and a +7.5% increase in robusta production to 77.01 million bags. The USDA’s FAS forecasts that 2024/25 ending stocks will fall by -6.6% to a 25-year low of 20.867 million bags from 22.347 million bags in 2023/24. Separately, the USDA’s FAS on November 22 projected Brazil’s 2024/25 coffee production at 66.4 MMT, below its previous forecast of 69.9 MMT. The USDA’s FAS projects Brazil’s coffee inventories at 1.2 million bags at the end of the 2024/25 season in June, down -26% y/y.

For the 2025/26 marketing year, Volcafe on December 17 cut its 2025/26 Brazil arabica coffee production estimate to 34.4 million bags, down by about 11 million bags from a September estimate after a crop tour revealed the severity of an extended drought in Brazil. Volcafe projects a global 2025/26 arabica coffee deficit of -8.5 million bags, wider than the -5.5 million bag deficit for 2024/25 and the fifth consecutive year of deficits.

On the date of publication, Rich Asplund did not have (either directly or indirectly) positions in any of the securities mentioned in this article. All information and data in this article is solely for informational purposes. For more information please view the Barchart Disclosure Policyhere.

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• Commodity Market Roundup- January’s Top Performers and Underperformers

Brent crude oil price rose in latest intraday trading, while readying to attack the pivotal resistance of $73.60, after managing to vent off overbought saturation that was apparent in the Stochastic, with positive signals emerging from it once more, amid the dominance of the upward correctional trend in the short term as the price moves alongside the trend line.