• Gold price holds the previous rebound above $3,000 ahead of mid-tier US data, Fedspeak.
• The US Dollar loses recovery momentum as Trump’s tariff threats return, supporting Gold price.
• Gold buyers are likely to extend control toward $3,050 and beyond amid bullish technicals.  

Gold price is consolidating the previous rebound above $3,000 early Wednesday, gathering pace before the next push higher. The focus is back on US tariffs and their impact on the global economies, enhancing the safe-haven appeal of Gold price.  

Gold price eyes tariff updates, record highs

US President Donald Trump is reportedly set to impose three escalating levels of tariffs, with Canada likely to be on the lower end of the April 2 tariffs, per the Toronto Star. Trump later clarified that “all we’re going to do is reciprocal,” adding that “not many exceptions on April 2 tariffs.”

At the same time, Bloomberg News reported that the US President “plans to implement copper import tariffs within weeks.”

These renewed tariff threats rekindled US economic concerns, keeping the US Dollar (USD) upside in check as investors sought refuge in the traditional safe-haven of Gold price.

Earlier this week, fears over a US economic slowdown were doused after the release of a stronger-than-expected S&P Global flash US Composite PMI Output Index. The gauge which tracks the manufacturing and services sectors, jumped to 53.5 this month from 51.6 in February.

That said, the further upside in Gold price appears intact as markets reposition, bracing for the April 2 reciprocal tariffs. However, if the US Durable Goods Orders data exceeds estimates by a wide margin, it could reinforce expectations for one interest rate cut by the US Federal Reserve (Fed) this year, fuelled by the upbeat PMI data on Monday.

The less dovish Fed narrative could cap the Gold price rebound while taking cues on policy from several Fed officials, who are due to speak later on Wednesday.

Also of note remains the geopolitical developments surrounding the Ukraine peace deal. The US on Tuesday reached deals with Ukraine and Russia to pause their attacks at sea and against energy targets, with Washington agreeing to push to lift some sanctions against Moscow. However, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky stated that he would seek US President Trump’s support in providing weapons and imposing sanctions on Russia if Moscow violated the agreements.

Gold price technical analysis: Daily chart

The technical setup on the daily chart favors buyers, with their sights set on the ascending triangle target, measured at $3,080.

The 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) is trending higher, currently at 66, which justifies the bullish momentum.

Gold price remains poised to take out the record high of $3,058 on the way to achieving the triangle target of $3,080.

Alternatively, the $3,000 round level will emerge as a powerful support. The next downside cap is aligned at the previous week’s low of $2,982.  

Further south, the 21-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) and the triangle support confluence at $2,958 will be a tough nut to crack for sellers.

Natural gas prices fell and hit $3.810, thus approaching the support of $3.750, which is the key for deciding the overall trend in the near and medium term.

The price is now approaching the 55-day SMA support, which would reinforce its stability, while the Stochastic sends out positive signals, which boost the price further towards the resistance of $4.050, then $4.180.

Expected trading range today is between $3.750 and $4.050.

Today’s price forecast: Bullish as the support holds 

Natural gas prices fell and hit $3.810, thus approaching the support of $3.750, which is the key for deciding the overall trend in the near and medium term.

The price is now approaching the 55-day SMA support, which would reinforce its stability, while the Stochastic sends out positive signals, which boost the price further towards the resistance of $4.050, then $4.180.

Expected trading range today is between $3.750 and $4.050.

Today’s price forecast: Bullish as the support holds 

• Silver struggles to capitalize on the overnight move-up and ticks lower on Wednesday.
• The setup favors bulls and supports prospects for the emergence of some dip-buying.
• A convincing break and acceptance below $33.00 would negate the positive outlook.

Silver (XAG/USD) attracts some sellers during the Asian session on Wednesday and erodes a part of the previous day’s strong move up. The white metal currently trades around the $33.65-$33.60 area, down 0.30% for the day, though the downside seems limited on the back of a bullish technical setup. 

The XAG/USD last week showed some resilience below the $33.00 mark and the 100-period Simple Moving Average (SMA) on the 4-hour chart. The subsequent move-up and positive oscillators on the daily chart validate the positive outlook. Hence, any further intraday slide could be seen as a buying opportunity and remain limited near the said handle. 

A convincing break below, however, might prompt some technical selling and drag the XAG/USD further below last week’s low, around the $32.65 region, towards testing the $32.00 round figure. This is followed by supports near the $31.80 zone (March 11 low), which if broken might shift the bias in favor of bears and expose the monthly low, around the $31.10 area. 

On the flip side, bulls might now wait for a move beyond the $33.80 area, or the weekly high touched earlier this Wednesday, before placing fresh bets. The XAG/USD might then reclaim the $34.00 mark and climb further to a multi-month top, around the $34.20-$34.25 region touched on March 18, en route to a multi-year peak, around the $34.85 zone touched in October. 

XAG/USD 4-hour chart

Gold price edged down in latest intraday trading with negative signals emerging from the Stochastic, as the price tries to gather positive momentum to rise anew, while also leaning on the support of the 50-candle SMA.

It comes amid the dominance of the main upward trend while trading alongside a secondary short-term trend line, as the price tries to breach the Flag pattern, which is complementary to that positive trend in the intraday levels. 

Weekly Bullish Signal

Notice that the price level around today’s low may have some significance. It is near a previously marked price level established by an interim swing low from December at $68.82. Also, last week’s high was at $68.97. Once resistance is surpassed in an advance that price area is typically tested as support in some form. Therefore, today’s low was a successful test of support, and last Friday’s high of $68.97 was a test of resistance. That is a sign of strengthening. Moreover, a bullish continuation signal was generated on the weekly chart with a rally above last week’s high of $68.96 on Monday. That showed strength and established the beginnings of an uptrend on the higher time frame weekly chart.

Drop Below $68.80 May Test 20-Day MA

Nevertheless, if a drop below today’s low follows, there is potential support around $68.37 and the significant 20-Day MA, now at $67.97. Initial signs of a bullish reversal in crude oil triggered last week on a rally above the 20-Day line and downtrend line. Notice that they were identifying a very similar price level by the time the bullish reversal triggered last Thursday.

Given the extent of the of the recent bearish correction where the price of crude declined by $15.36 or 19%, it seems likely the current developing counter trend rally has more upside to go. That correction on a percentage basis was the largest of the prior larger four bearish corrections in crude oil, starting with the drop from the April 2024 peak.

Upside Breakout Targets $70.61 to $70.79

If today’s high is exceeded, then crude oil looks like it heads towards the next higher target zone from $70.61 to $70.79. That range begins with the 50% retracement and ends with a prior resistance level. Also, included within the range is the 127.2% extended target for the rising ABCD pattern at $70.81.

For a look at all of today’s economic events, check out our economic calendar.

• Silver jumps as investors seek safety amid rising stagflation risks and falling US real yields.
• Bulls clear $33.00 and $33.50; eyes now on $33.94 and key resistance at $34.86.
• Downside risks if price falls below $33.00, with support at $32.66 and 50-day SMA near $32.04.

Silver price soared on Tuesday, registering gains of over 2.10%, as a weaker US Dollar could not cap the metal’s advance amid increased fears of a stagflationary scenario, following a Conference Board (CB) Consumer Confidence poll. At the time of writing, the XAG/USD trades at $33.72, virtually unchanged.

XAG/USD Price Forecast: Technical outlook

On Monday, I wrote, “Silver price formed a ‘quasi gravestone doji’ that usually appears in an uptrend, signifying a pause or end of the trend. Nevertheless, as it is preceded by a downtrend, it might indicate that bears had lost steam while buyers stepped in near the day’s lows of $32.89.” That’s what happened.

Bulls moved as a stampede and drove the precious metal higher, capitalizing on falling US yields, clearing the $33.00 and $33.50 psychological figures on its way to current spot prices. Should Silver continue to find acceptance higher, the XAG/USD could reach the March 20 peak of $33.94, ahead of testing the $34.00 figure. If surpassed, the next stop would be last October’s monthly peak at $34.86.

Conversely, if XAG/USD slips beneath $33.00, immediate support emerges at the March 21 low of $32.66. Once hurdled, the next stop is the 50-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) at $32.04.

XAG/USD Price Chart – Daily

US crude oil prices kept rising in intraday trading, amid the dominance of the upward correctional trend in the short term, as the price moves alongside the trend line, with the gains achieved despite a stream of negative signals from the Stochastic, with the price attempting to vent off overbought saturation there.

XAU/USD Current price: $3,022.75

• A partial cease fire between Russia and Ukraine could be shortly announced.
• US CB Consumer Confidence plummeted in March amid Trump-related uncertainty.
• XAU/USD struggles to extend gains but holds above the $3,000 mark.

Gold recovered part of its shine on Tuesday, helped by tariffs-related concerns. The XAU/USD pair advanced towards $3,036.04 early in the American session, as headlines related to United States (US) President Donald Trump’s tariffs weighed on the US Dollar (USD).

Headlines indicated that Trump plans to adopt a two-step approach as his tariff strategy, seeking to ground the president’s reciprocal tariff regime in a more robust legal framework.

Meanwhile, fresh geopolitical headlines emerged, noting that a ceasefire between Russia and Ukraine is in the making. News point to a “ceasefire at sea,” meaning reviving the Black Sea Grain deal,  allowing Ukraine to ship its grain and agricultural products to global markets.

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy said that Ukraine’s understanding is ceasefire is effective immediately following US announcement adding he will ask President Trump for weapons and sanctions on Russia if Moscow breaks the ceasefire.

Earlier in the day, the US reported that Consumer Confidence plummeted in March. The CB index printed at 92.9, missing the 94.2 expected and below the previous 100.1.

XAU/USD short-term technical outlook

The daily chart for the XAU/USD pair shows bulls are regaining control. The pair has posted a higher high and a higher low, while advancing above all bullish moving averages. The 20 Simple Moving Average (SMA) picked up momentum and currently provides dynamic support at around $2,954.70. At the same time, technical indicators resumed their advances within positive levels after correcting extreme overbought conditions.

In the near term, and according to the 4-hour chart, XAU/USD bullish potential seems limited. The pair is battling a mildly bearish 20 SMA, but still well above bullish 100 and 200 SMAs. Technical indicators, in the meantime, are retreating from their midlines, heading marginally lower within neutral levels.

Support levels: 3,014.00 2,999.30 2,984.70  

Resistance levels: 3,030.50 3,047.40 3,060.00

Platinum price closed lower once more below the 50% Fibonacci retracement level at $983, bolstering the odds of more losses as the price approaches the first target at $969.45.

As the Stochastic sends out negative signals, the price will likely head towards $963, then $950, however, a rush higher above $1000 would flip the scenario towards more gains, targeting $1017.

Expected trading range today is between $960 and $990.

Today’s price forecast: Bearish