Domestic coffee prices

The domestic coffee market on April 14 continued to increase, extending the recovery period.

According to surveys in key growing areas of the Central Highlands, coffee prices simultaneously increased by 500 – 600 VND/kg, bringing the average price level of the whole region to the threshold of 86,500 VND/kg.

In Dak Nong province (old), the purchase price recorded the highest increase of 600 VND/kg, pushing the price to the highest in the region at 86,600 VND/kg.

Dak Lak and Gia Lai two localities increased by another 500 VND/kg, bringing the price to the highest level of 86,550 VND/kg.

With the same increase of 500 VND, Lam Dong province listed it at 86,500 VND/kg.

World coffee prices

On the international market, futures exchanges rebounded after the weekend session remained unchanged. On the New York exchange, Arabica futures for May 2026 opened at 300.85 cents/lb. Further forwards offered prices at the threshold of 268.4 cents/lb – 296.25 cents/lb.

In the same period, the London exchange also witnessed the Robusta line increasing in price, standing at 3,351 USD/ton. Further terms fluctuated around 3,106 USD/ton – 3,254 USD/ton.

Coffee prices are trending upwards, with Arabica coffee reaching its highest level in 2 weeks. The reason is that rainfall in Brazil is lower than average, which could reduce yields and push prices up. Tight Robusta supply also supports prices.

Market outlook

The closure of the Strait of Hormuz disrupted global transportation and tightened coffee supply. This increased transportation, insurance and fuel costs, thereby increasing costs for coffee importers and roasters.

Last week, Arabica prices fell to a 4-week low due to expectations for a record crop in Brazil. Coffee exports increased sharply from Vietnam – the world’s largest robusta producer, putting pressure on robusta prices.

According to data from the General Statistics Office, Vietnam’s coffee exports in the first quarter of 2026 increased by 14% compared to the same period, reaching 585,000 tons. In 2025, exports increased by 17.5%, reaching 1.58 million tons. The output of the 2025/26 crop is expected to increase by 6%, to 1.76 million tons (294 million bags), the highest level in 4 years.

Coffee prices were also supported by information that Brazil’s green coffee exports in February decreased by 27% year-on-year, to 2.3 million bags. The Brazilian Ministry of Commerce also said that exports in March decreased by 31%, to 151,000 tons.

The US Department of Agriculture (USDA – FAS) forecasts that Brazil’s output will decrease by 3.1% to 63 million sacks, while Vietnam will increase by 6.2% to 30.8 million sacks (the highest in 4 years). Inventory at the end of the 2025-2026 crop year is expected to decrease by 5.4%, to 20.148 million sacks.

Natural gas price continued providing strong bearish pressures on the support level at $2.620, due to the negative momentum by the main indicators, which makes us wait for breaking the required breakout, to begin targeting extra negative stations by reaching $2.390 and $2.250 initially.

The stability of the moving average 55 above the initial resistance towards $3.170 confirms the trading confinement within the negative track, to keep waiting for achieving the negative targets, waiting for the next close to detect the suggested targets in the upcoming trading.

The expected trading range for today is between $2.390 and $2.820

Trend forecast: Bearish

Copper price continued forming bullish waves in Friday’s trading, reaching the second target at $5.8900 level, which forces it to form temporary corrective rebound due to stochastic attempt to exit the overbought level by its fluctuation near $5.8100.

The contradiction of the main indicators might reinforce the dominance of the sideways bias in the current trading, the stability above $5.5000 supports the bullish scenario, to keep waiting for reaching the next barrier at $5.9700, to monitor its behavior to confirm the suggested target in the upcoming trading.

The expected trading range for today is between $5.6800 and $5.9700

Trend forecast: Bullish

The Boeing Company (BA) stock price recorded a decline in its latest intraday trading, after coming into contact with resistance at its 50-day SMA. This occurs amid the dominance of a short-term corrective bearish wave, with a negative divergence beginning to form in the Stochastic indicator after reaching extremely overbought levels that are exaggerated relative to price action, as negative signals start to emerge.

Therefore we expect the stock price to decline during its upcoming trading sessions, as long as resistance at $228.95 remains intact, targeting the support level at $202.30.

Today’s price forecast: Bearish

Platinum price affected by temporary negative pressure since Friday, which pushes it to form bearish corrective waves, to test the additional support at $1950.00, to bounce currently towards $2045.00, to settle above the moving average 55.

The stability of the support level and stochastic attempt to provide positive momentum by the main indicators will increase the chances of the rally towards $2075.00 and providing a positive close above it will open the way for resuming the bullish trend, expecting to reach $2130.00 followed by the next barrier at $2205.00.

The expected trading range for today is between $1970.00 and $2130.00

Trend forecast: Bullish

Domestic coffee prices

The domestic coffee market this morning, April 13th, continued to increase after a week of deep price slippage.

According to surveys in key growing areas of the Central Highlands, coffee prices simultaneously increased slightly from 200 to 300 VND/kg, bringing the average price level of the whole region to the threshold of 86,000 VND/kg.

In Dak Nong province (old), the purchase price recorded an increase of 200 VND, pushing the price to the highest level in the region at 86,000 VND/kg.

Dak Lak and Gia Lai two localities increased the highest by 300 VND, bringing the price to the highest level of 86,000 VND/kg.

With the same increase of 300 VND, Lam Dong province listed it at 85,500 VND/kg.

World coffee prices

On the international market, futures exchanges remained unchanged after a slight price increase in the last session of the week. On the New York exchange, Arabica futures for May 2026 opened at 300.10 cents/lb. Further forwards offered prices at the threshold of 267 cents/lb – 295.9 cents/lb.

For the same term, the London exchange also witnessed the Robusta flow moving sideways, standing at 3,324 USD/ton. Further terms fluctuated around 3,100 USD/ton – 3,239 USD/ton.

Scarce supply of Robusta coffee is supporting prices. Robusta inventories on the ICE exchange fell to their lowest level in more than 1 year. However, increased Arabica inventories are putting pressure on prices as inventory tracked by ICE increased to its highest level in 6.25 months.

Market outlook

According to the Climate Prediction Center (CPC) of the US National Weather Service, neutral ENSO conditions are present and are likely to last until mid-year. Neutral ENSO states occur when there is no El Nino or La Nina, often bringing more stable and predictable weather. This shows the decline of extreme climate phenomena and can help make global crop forecasts more consistent.

For coffee growing areas, especially in Brazil, Colombia and Vietnam, neutral ENSO conditions can contribute to stabilizing rainfall and temperature, supporting more uniform crop development and reducing the risk of weather disruptions. Weather factors will continue to be closely monitored as the Southern Hemisphere enters the traditional cold winter period in the near future.

In terms of long-term vision, in the context of Vietnamese coffee production expected to recover in the 2025-2026 crop year after years affected by weather, along with the upcoming Robusta Conilon harvest of Brazil and expected positive output from Indonesia and Uganda in the middle of the year, the market is showing signs of rebalancing supply and demand for Robusta coffee.

Domestic coffee prices

The domestic coffee market entered Sunday (April 12) with a low closing price compared to the beginning of the week of 3,500 VND/kg. In the first trading session of the week, the price remained quite high and stable at 89,200 VND/kg. On April 8, it fell sharply to 85,200 VND/kg, which is also the lowest level of the week. After that, the price recovered slightly but fluctuated narrowly around 85,500-85,900 VND/kg. At the end of the week, it went sideways, showing that the market temporarily stabilized after the shocking decline at the beginning of the week.

Detailed purchase prices in key localities:

Dak Nong (old): Recorded price of 85,800 VND/kg.

Dak Lak and Gia Lai: Both maintain a trading level of 85,700 VND/kg.

Lam Dong: Anchored at the lowest level in the region at 85. 200 VND/kg.

Compared to the peak of 96,600 VND/kg set on March 7, the current coffee price has evaporated by about 10,900 VND/kg.

World coffee prices

On the London exchange, the price of online Robusta coffee for May 2026 futures contracts closed last week at 3.324 USD/ton, down 3.6% (124 USD/ton) compared to the previous week. July 2026 futures contracts fell 3.2% (107 USD/ton, down to 3.239 USD/ton.

Conversely, on the New York Stock Exchange, Arabica coffee futures for May 2026 delivery increased by 1.6% (US cents/pound) last week, reaching 300.1 US cents/pound. July 2026 contracts increased by 2.2% (6.5 US cents/pound), reaching 295.9 US cents/pound.

Market outlook

Arabica coffee prices are supported by the Brazilian Real rising to its highest level in two years against the USD, thereby reducing export selling pressure from coffee producers in this country.

Meanwhile, Robusta coffee prices are under downward pressure due to strong increases in Vietnam’s exports, and supply is supplemented from new harvests in Brazil and Indonesia.

According to Reuters, traders said that coffee prices in Vietnam continued to fall this week due to sluggish trading and weak demand, while Indonesian farmers expect lower yields from the upcoming harvest.

Both buyers and sellers are waiting for clearer signals. At the same time, the intense hot weather in coffee growing areas, along with rising fuel prices due to the war in the Middle East, has pushed up diesel prices used to operate irrigation pumps.

Real prices in localities may vary depending on quality and purchasing area.

BitcoinWorld

Silver Price Forecast: XAG/USD Holds Steady Above $72 Amid Critical Trump Iran Deadline Tensions

Global precious metals markets maintained cautious stability on Thursday, with silver prices trading essentially flat above the $72 per ounce threshold as investors worldwide focused their attention on an impending geopolitical deadline involving former President Donald Trump’s Iran policy. The XAG/USD pair demonstrated remarkable resilience despite multiple market pressures, reflecting the complex interplay between monetary policy expectations and geopolitical risk premiums that continue to define the 2025 commodities landscape.

Silver Price Forecast: Technical and Fundamental Analysis

Silver’s current trading pattern reveals significant market indecision. Consequently, analysts observe consolidation within a narrow range. The precious metal found support at $71.85 earlier this week before climbing to current levels. Meanwhile, resistance remains firm near $72.40. This technical behavior suggests traders await clearer directional signals. Fundamentally, several competing factors influence silver’s valuation. First, moderating inflation expectations reduce immediate safe-haven demand. Second, industrial consumption data shows mixed signals across global manufacturing sectors. Third, central bank reserve diversification continues providing underlying support. Fourth, currency fluctuations, particularly dollar strength, create headwinds for dollar-denominated commodities.

Market participants currently monitor several key indicators. The Federal Reserve’s upcoming policy meeting minutes will provide crucial insights. Additionally, Chinese industrial production figures will influence demand expectations. Furthermore, European Central Bank commentary may affect currency cross-rates. These domestic economic factors interact with broader geopolitical developments. Specifically, the Middle East situation introduces volatility potential. Therefore, silver’s price action reflects this multidimensional analysis.

Geopolitical Context: Understanding the Iran Deadline

The geopolitical landscape gained renewed attention this week. Former President Donald Trump’s administration established specific Iran-related deadlines during its tenure. Currently, certain provisions approach their expiration or review periods. These deadlines involve nuclear agreement considerations and sanctions enforcement mechanisms. International observers monitor potential policy shifts carefully. Regional stability concerns naturally affect commodity markets. Historically, Middle East tensions correlate with precious metals volatility. Silver often demonstrates sensitivity to such developments.

Several specific factors contribute to market watchfulness. First, diplomatic channels report ongoing negotiations. Second, regional military posturing shows subtle changes. Third, energy market reactions influence broader commodity sentiment. Fourth, global shipping and trade routes face potential disruption risks. Market analysts reference historical precedents for context. For instance, the 2020 assassination of Qasem Soleimani triggered significant silver price movements. Similarly, the 2015 Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action announcement affected precious metals. Current conditions suggest moderate rather than extreme market impact.

Expert Analysis: Precious Metals Market Dynamics

Financial institutions provide measured assessments of the situation. Goldman Sachs commodities research notes silver’s dual nature as both monetary and industrial asset. Their analysis suggests geopolitical premiums typically add 3-7% to silver prices during tension periods. Meanwhile, JP Morgan’s quarterly commodities report highlights inventory levels. Global silver stockpiles remain within historical averages. This inventory cushion may limit extreme price spikes. Bloomberg Intelligence analysts emphasize technical factors. The 50-day moving average currently provides support at $71.20. Additionally, trading volume patterns show institutional accumulation.

Comparative analysis reveals interesting patterns. Gold-silver ratio calculations currently stand at approximately 78:1. This ratio remains above the 10-year average of 68:1. Consequently, some analysts suggest silver possesses relative value. Historical data supports this perspective. During previous geopolitical crises, silver often outperformed gold percentage-wise. However, silver also demonstrates higher volatility characteristics. Risk management considerations therefore remain paramount for traders.

Market Infrastructure and Trading Considerations

Modern silver trading involves complex market structures. The London Bullion Market Association provides daily price benchmarks. Meanwhile, COMEX futures contracts offer standardized trading vehicles. Exchange-traded funds like iShares Silver Trust provide retail access. These interconnected systems create efficient price discovery. Current open interest data shows moderate positioning. Specifically, managed money accounts maintain net-long positions. However, these positions decreased slightly last week. This reduction suggests professional traders exercise caution.

Several practical factors affect silver market functioning. First, physical delivery mechanisms operate smoothly. Second, storage costs remain stable across major vaults. Third, refining capacity meets current demand levels. Fourth, recycling flows contribute approximately 20% of annual supply. These operational elements support market stability. Despite geopolitical headlines, physical market conditions show normalcy. Premiums for immediate delivery remain within typical ranges. This indicates adequate available supply.

Economic Indicators and Silver Demand Drivers

Broader economic conditions influence silver’s fundamental outlook. Global manufacturing PMI readings show regional variation. Asian industrial activity demonstrates relative strength. European figures indicate contraction concerns. American manufacturing displays mixed signals. These regional differences create complex demand patterns. Solar panel installation represents a growing demand segment. Photovoltaic technology consumes substantial silver quantities. Government renewable energy targets support this demand. Automotive electrification provides additional industrial usage. Electric vehicles utilize silver in multiple components.

Monetary policy developments remain crucial for precious metals. Central bank balance sheet adjustments affect liquidity conditions. Interest rate expectations influence opportunity costs. Currency valuation changes impact dollar-denominated pricing. The current environment features policy divergence among major economies. The Federal Reserve maintains a data-dependent approach. The European Central Bank faces growth challenges. The Bank of Japan continues yield curve control. These policy differences create currency market volatility. Silver often benefits from dollar weakness scenarios.

Risk Assessment and Future Scenarios

Market participants evaluate multiple potential outcomes. A diplomatic resolution to Iran tensions could reduce risk premiums. Conversely, escalating rhetoric might increase safe-haven demand. Economic slowdown concerns present additional considerations. Recession scenarios typically depress industrial demand. However, monetary policy responses might offset this effect. Technological innovation introduces long-term uncertainty. Silver substitution research continues across industries. Alternative materials development could affect future demand.

Several specific scenarios warrant monitoring. First, deadline extensions without substantive changes. Second, renewed negotiations with modified parameters. Third, enforcement actions affecting specific sectors. Fourth, regional proxy conflicts with indirect impacts. Historical analysis provides probability estimates. Similar deadlines in past administrations resulted in varied outcomes. Market reactions correspondingly differed in magnitude and duration. Current volatility expectations remain moderate based on options pricing.

Conclusion

The silver price forecast reflects balanced market assessment as XAG/USD trades near $72. Geopolitical developments involving Trump’s Iran deadline command attention but haven’t triggered dramatic movements. Market infrastructure demonstrates resilience amid uncertainty. Technical indicators suggest consolidation within defined parameters. Fundamental factors present mixed signals across industrial demand and monetary policy dimensions. Ultimately, silver’s price trajectory will depend on resolution clarity regarding Iran policy alongside broader economic indicators. The precious metal maintains its traditional role as both industrial commodity and potential hedge, with current trading patterns indicating measured market evaluation of competing risk factors.

FAQs

Q1: What is the current XAG/USD trading range?
The XAG/USD pair currently trades between $71.85 support and $72.40 resistance, showing consolidation patterns as markets await clearer directional signals from both economic data and geopolitical developments.

Q2: How do geopolitical tensions typically affect silver prices?
Historically, geopolitical tensions in oil-producing regions add risk premiums of 3-7% to silver prices, though the effect varies based on conflict scale, duration, and potential disruption to trade routes and energy supplies.

Q3: What industrial factors support silver demand in 2025?
Solar panel manufacturing represents the fastest-growing demand segment, followed by automotive electrification components and 5G infrastructure deployment, though traditional electronics and jewelry applications remain significant.

Q4: How does the gold-silver ratio affect trading decisions?
The current ratio near 78:1 suggests silver may be relatively undervalued compared to historical averages near 68:1, potentially indicating better value for long-term investors, though silver’s higher volatility requires appropriate risk management.

Q5: What economic indicators most influence silver prices?
Manufacturing PMI data, inflation expectations, currency exchange rates (particularly USD strength), central bank policy signals, and industrial production figures collectively drive silver’s fundamental valuation alongside geopolitical developments.

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