• Gold price treads water above $2,900 as the US CPI inflation week kicks off.
• The US Dollar stays weak amid tariff war-led economic concerns and falling US Treasury yields.
• Gold price flirts with 21-day SMA at $2,911 support whilst daily RSI stays bullish.

Gold price is extending its range-play above $2,900 starting a new week on Monday, looking to defend the critical support line near $2,910.  

Gold price keeps eyes on Trump’s tariffs, geopolitics  

Despite registering a weekly gain last week, Gold price struggles to gain upside traction early Monday. Gold buyers stay cautious amid looming US President Donald Trump’s tariffs on Canada and Mexico after the recent back-and-forth and ahead of this week’s US JOLTS Job Openings and Consumer Price Index (CPI) data.

President Trump issued a fresh tariff threat on Canadian lumber on Friday, noting that it may or may not come today, or on Monday, or on Tuesday. This statement came after the Trump administration temporarily waived tariffs on all USMCA-associated goods and reaffirmed that reciprocal tariffs will take effect in April.

On Sunday, Trump said that they are “looking at a lot of things with respect to tariffs on Russia.

Besides impending tariffs, geopolitical developments will also play a pivotal role this week, especially after the US President said that the administration has discussed lifting an intelligence pause on Ukraine. “Ukraine will sign the minerals deal, but I want them to want peace… they haven’t shown it to the extent they should,” Trump added.

Heightened uncertainty around tariffs and the Ukraine peace deal intensifies concerns over a potential US stagflation, especially after Friday’s February labor market report. The US economy added 151,000 jobs in February, compared with an expected rise of 160,000 and a previous downward revision of 125,000. Meanwhile, the Unemployment Rate climbed to 4.1% versus expectations of 4%. The Labor Force Participation Rate ticked a tad lower to 62.4% in the same period from January’s 62.6%.

The US Dollar lost roughly 3% of its value against its major currency rivals last week amid economic slowdown fears. This lifted bets for more Federal Reserve (Fed) interest rate cuts this year and kept the Gold price downside cushioned. According to LSEG Fed interest rate probabilities, markets are currently pricing 76 basis points (bps) of Fed rate cuts by year-end, starting in June.

However, Gold buyers failed to find any fresh impetus for a sustained upside as Fed Chair Jerome Powell stated on Friday that the US central bank would take a cautious approach to monetary policy easing, adding that the economy currently “continues to be in a good place”.

Looking ahead, Gold price remains a ‘buy-the-dips’ trade as it is the most sought-after store of value and a hedge against inflationary pressures. China continued its Gold purchases for the fourth consecutive month in February, according to the People’s Bank of China data, lending support to yellow metal.

Meanwhile, traders digest the latest China’s inflation data showing that the February CPI fell into negative territory for the first time since January last year, declining by 0.7% year-over-year (YoY.) China’s CPI in February fell 0.2% on a monthly basis, compared to a rise of 0.7% in January.

It’s worth mentioning that Chinese tariffs, announced last week, of up to 15% on a raft of US farm products come into effect on Monday.

Gold price technical analysis: Daily chart

The short-term technical outlook for Gold price remains more or less the same as long as it defends the 21-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) of $2,911 on a daily candlestick closing basis.

The uptrend could gain further traction on acceptance above the $2,930 static resistance.

The Relative Strength Index (RSI) holds comfortably above the 50 level, suggesting buyers will likely retain control in the near term.

If the February 26 high of $2,930 is taken out sustainably, the next topside barriers are at an all-time high of $2,956 and the $2,970 round level.

If Gold price runs into offers, immediate support is seen at the $2,850 psychological barrier as the 21-day SMA at $2,911 gives way.

The demand area near $2,835 could be a tough nut to crack for sellers.

Brent oil price continued to rise to succeed touching the bearish channel’s resistance line that declined to 71.70$, to rebound downwards clearly from there and head towards resuming the main bearish track within the mentioned channel, and the price needs to surpass 70.10$ to reinforce the chances of continuing the bearish bias in the upcoming sessions.

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Created on March 09, 2025

• WTI Crude Oil will begin this week of trading near the 66.630 via futures pricing on many brokers platforms.
• The commodity has continued to see a price squeeze downwards based on proactive energy policy from the White House. The narrative that the Ukraine and Russia negotiation impasse from the previous week may have a lasting effect on sentiment did not prove to be true.
• Perhaps the notion that some large players in WTI Crude Oil are contemplating a potential recession is a reason for lower prices, but again day traders need to be careful about hyperbole coming from some analysts and media members who may be letting bias into their perspectives.
• The simple fact that WTI Crude Oil continues to move lower under the Trump administration because of proactive energy policy which includes less restraints on production is legitimate.

Now that WTI Crude Oil has hit the lower part of its mid and long-term price range, traders will have to start considering where support levels might start to prove durable. Selling WTI Crude Oil since the middle of January has proven to be a solid wager for traders with patience and the stamina to deal with reversals higher and then a return to the lower trend. However, at some juncture WTI Crude Oil is certain to run into dynamics regarding costs of production and demand, which will start to create areas where speculative outlook may finding buying impetus.

The ability to break below the 66.000 USD ratio in WTI Crude Oil this past week was intriguing. Long-term price charts show challenges to the 65.000 vicinity in the spring of 2023 and late December 2021. But it has been a handful of years since WTI Crude Oil has slumped below with the 64.000 to 63.000 price levels in a sustained manner. Looking for more downside pressure in WTI Crude Oil may remain the flavor for speculators, but they should begin to think about where a floor will be found.

After touching lows on Wednesday and Thursday of this past week, WTI Crude Oil did start to traverse upwards again. The movement higher lacked price velocity which seems to indicate large players feel the commodity belongs within its current realms.

• The price range of WTI Crude Oil may start to see a consistent test of its current realm, the question is where speculators will feel comfortable to test wagers.
• The 66.000 to 67.500 price range may become the playing field, but traders certainly need to be on the lookout for outliers and listen for possible loud noise to sometimes effect sentiment.

The price of WTI Crude Oil has certainly delivered the lower price range that has been expected. But now that lower values have been attained, traders need to start asking where support levels are and will factor into potential reversals. Speculators should brace for the potential that current values now being demonstrated might begin to become an area where prices get choppy as large players trade and look for advantages.

The Trump administration’s proactive energy stance in not going to change, this creates a fundamental component in WTI Crude Oil which should keep the price of the commodity rater restrained. Looking for too much upside in WTI Crude Oil is likely a mistake, using targets and cashing out trades when they have achieved their technical goals is important. Technical perspectives within these current lower depths will be important. While it is true that WTI Crude Oil may see more downside pressure, traders also know that costs of production will factor into the futures price and create some support. Crude Oil has seen a strong downtrend emerge since the middle of January, and perhaps it isn’t over yet. This weeks’ trading will be interesting to see if support starts to become more durable.

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A weaker US dollar, which fell to a four-month low, made gold more attractive to foreign buyers​. The greenback’s decline was driven by a weaker-than-expected non-farm payrolls (NFP) report and growing speculation about Fed rate cuts​.

China continued its gold-buying spree for a fourth consecutive month in February, signaling ongoing central bank demand for the metal​. Meanwhile, geopolitical risks and trade uncertainty provided further safe-haven support.

US Jobs Data and Fed Signals Shape Gold’s Outlook

The US labor market showed signs of cooling, with February’s NFP data revealing 151,000 jobs added, below the forecasted 160,000​. This report reinforced market expectations that the Fed could begin rate cuts by June, with futures pricing in about 78 basis points of easing this year​.

However, Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell struck a cautious tone, stating that the central bank needs “greater clarity” before making any moves on interest rates​. Inflation concerns remain a key issue, with upcoming CPI data expected to provide fresh insight into whether price pressures are cooling​.

Tariff Uncertainty and Economic Sentiment in Focus

Trade tensions continue to be a major factor influencing gold. The US recently imposed fresh 25% tariffs on imports from Mexico and Canada, along with increased duties on Chinese goods​. A temporary exemption on auto tariffs for certain manufacturers has added complexity, leaving markets uncertain about the long-term trade policy outlook​.

Additionally, European gas storage is at 37% capacity, compared to the five-year seasonal average of 49%, reinforcing global supply concerns. However, U.S. traders remain focused on domestic fundamentals, where inventory tightness continues to underpin long-term price strength.

Could Colder Weather Prevent a Larger Sell-Off?

The latest NOAA forecast for March 17-21 introduced a more bullish factor late last week. The outlook calls for cooler temperatures along the West Coast, while storm systems could help moderate warmth on the East Coast. This shift in expectations sparked short-covering, helping prices recover from early-week losses.

However, the overall forecast remains mixed. While colder systems persist in the northern U.S., milder conditions across the South and East, with highs in the 50s-80s, could limit heating demand. If temperatures trend warmer in subsequent forecasts, natural gas could face renewed selling pressure.

Could Tariffs and LNG Exports Tighten the Market?

Trade policy developments are adding another layer of uncertainty. U.S. tariffs of 10% on Canadian natural gas imports took effect last week, which could put upward pressure on domestic prices as importers adjust. Canada has hinted at retaliatory measures, including a 25% tariff on electricity exports to the U.S., potentially increasing demand for gas-fired power generation.

Meanwhile, LNG exports remain near record highs, with flows to U.S. terminals holding at 15.2 Bcf/d. Additionally, President Trump’s decision to lift restrictions on new LNG export projects could lead to further structural demand growth. The upcoming decision on the Commonwealth LNG facility in Louisiana will be a key development to watch.

Market Forecast: Can Prices Hold Key Levels?

Another Leg Down Anticipated

Another leg down in gold has been anticipated given last week’s bearish reversal following a new record high of $2,956. The week ended with a weekly bearish engulfing pattern as gold fell below support of the prior two weeks and it ended the week in a bearish position, in the lower third of the week’s trading range. Furthermore, a breakdown of a rising trendline and 20-Day MA triggered, thereby further confirming weakness. There has been only one leg down from the $2,956 record high today and a minimum of two legs down is common for a bearish retracement.

Successful Test of Resistance

This week’s advance tested prior support of the trendline as resistance, and resistance was seen around the line. The 20-Day line is the other trend indicator that was tested as resistance, but it failed as resistance because gold rose above the 20-Day MA and traded above it for four days. Nonetheless, taken together, gold may have completed its counter trend rally to test prior support as resistance. Once that happens, the chance for a bearish continuation improves.

Inside Week Provides Key Price Levels

An inside week is established for this week, leaving two key price levels to be considered. The low for the week was $2,855 and the high is $2,930. A decisive move through either price level may determine the next direction. Although the technical evidence is more on the bearish side, a sustained rally above this week’s high would require a realignment of views and would open the possibility of a bullish continuation of the trend in the near term. On the downside, the next lower target for gold if the recent swing low at $2,833 fails to retain support, is a range around $2,813 to $2,810, consisting of the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement and the initial target for a falling ABCD pattern, respectively.

For a look at all of today’s economic events, check out our economic calendar.

Silver Consolidates as Rate Cut Expectations Build

Silver (XAG/USD) is trading at $32.55, slightly above its session low of $32.43. The metal is holding firm, with support coming from a softer U.S. dollar and increased speculation that the Federal Reserve will ease policy in the months ahead. However, concerns over global trade and restrained investor activity are limiting major price swings.

The U.S. dollar continues to drift lower as markets price in multiple Fed rate cuts in 2025. Economic data points to slowing momentum, reinforcing expectations of policy adjustments that could favor non-yielding assets like gold and silver.

U.S. Initial Jobless Claims fell to 221,000 last week, lower than expected. However, this had little impact on the dollar or gold, as attention remains on the upcoming NFP report. Forecasts suggest job gains of 160,000 in February, with the unemployment rate expected to hold at 4%.

Fed Policy and Economic Signals Shape Gold’s Path

Federal Reserve officials have acknowledged economic risks, reinforcing expectations of eventual rate cuts. Philadelphia Fed President Patrick Harker and Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic pointed to slowing growth as a concern, suggesting policy adjustments may be warranted. Meanwhile, Fed Governor Christopher Waller indicated he does not support a rate cut in March but did not rule out easing later in the year if inflation declines further.

Market sentiment is also adjusting to shifts in trade policy. Trump’s temporary exemption of tariffs on Canadian and Mexican goods has introduced new variables for businesses and investors, influencing broader market positioning.

China is preparing additional stimulus measures. Finance Minister Lan Foan has signaled the government’s willingness to support economic growth if needed, while People’s Bank of China Governor Pan Gongsheng has suggested interest rate and Reserve Requirement Ratio (RRR) reductions could be considered.

Dynamics of Pullback May Provide Clues

Until today, a bullish continuation was possible as resistance around the top channel line continued to be tested over the past couple of days and resistance was retained. The subsequent bearish decline today, however, makes a deeper pullback more likely prior to a new breakout attempt. But that will also depend on what happens next.

Key Trend Support at 20-Day MA

The obvious potential trend support area is represented by the 20-Day MA, now at $3.97. Notice that it aligns with an internal uptrend line. Together, they represent a more significant possible dynamic support area. A pullback prior to another bullish breakout attempt would be normal and healthy for the developing bull trend.

Recent bullish indications that support an eventual move higher, include a sharp bounce off support on Monday defined by the convergence of the 50% retracement, the 20-Day MA, and the 50-Day MA. Moreover, the 20-Day line crossed above the 50-Day line, and natural gas reached a new trend high. This behavior shows strong underlying demand. However, if there is a decline below the 20-Day MA and natural gas stays below it or keeps falling, the near-term outlook and a chance for a new trend high begins to fade.

Weekly Bullish Engulfing Pattern Supports Further Upside

This week will end with a bullish engulfing pattern that is also a key reversal week. Where the price of natural gas ends the week may provide additional insight. A weekly closing price above last week’s high of $4.19 would confirm the weekly breakout, but a close above the three-week high and prior trend high at $4.48, would show greater strength. Despite the potential for a deeper bearish decline, that would begin to change on a sharp rise above today’s high at $4.43. This could be of particular interest if the day ends with a bullish hammer candlestick pattern.

For a look at all of today’s economic events, check out our economic calendar.

XAU / USD trend forecast March 5, 2025

⚠️Gold prices rise as the US Dollar (USD) weakens amid escalating trade tensions between the United States (US), Canada, Mexico, and China, with new tariffs taking effect on Tuesday. As a result, the USD’s decline supports the precious metal. XAU/USD is currently trading at $2,918, up 0.62%.

Market sentiment remains…

Silver price didn’t show any strong move since morning, to continue fluctuating around 32.60$, thus, no change to the expected bullish trend for today, which depends on the price stability above 32.25$, reminding you that our targets begin at 32.86$ and extend to 33.35$ after breaching the previous level.

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