Upside Channel Breakout Possible

An upside breakout would signal a breakout of the rising parallel channel that shows some degree of symmetry within the price structure of the uptrend. Caution is warranted as there is a strong risk of a false breakout. Nonetheless, the next higher target zone is from around $4.70 to $4.72, derived from two extended Fibonacci levels. A little higher is a potential significant target zone as it would complete a 38.2% Fibonacci retracement of the full decline that began following the $10.03 peak in 2022. The 38.2% level is at $4.77.

Bullish Monthly Signal

Today’s rally triggered a bull trend continuation signal on the monthly chart (not shown) as last month’s high of $4.78 was exceeded. A daily close above that high will provide some confirmation of strength indicated by the upside breakout. Moreover, notice the pullback to a new retracement low of $3.74 on Monday that occurred before buyers stepped in and took back control.

A decisive bull breakout of a small wedge followed, and the day ended in a strong position near the highs of the day. Can demand remain strong enough for a breakout through the top of the channel? Possibly. But it may then quickly run out of bullish momentum. However, it will depend on whether it occurs before a minor pullback or not.

Slingshot Setup

The initial decline yesterday that occurred before a sharp rally was a clue that bullish momentum could accelerate. There was a confluence of several indicators around that price area, including the 50-Day MA, 20-Day MA, and 50% retracement. When multiple indicators point to a similar price it tends to be significant.

For a look at all of today’s economic events, check out our economic calendar.

• Silver gains some positive traction for the second straight day, though it lacks follow-through.
• The technical setup warrants some caution for bulls and positioning for further appreciation. 
• Bears might wait for a convincing break below the 100-day EMA before placing fresh bets.

Silver (XAG/USD) attracts buyers for the second straight day on Tuesday and moves further away from a nearly four-week low, around the $30.85-$30.80 region touched last Friday. The white metal climbs to the $31.80-$31.85 region during the first half of the European session, back closer to the overnight swing high, and seems poised to appreciate further.

From a technical perspective, the XAG/USD showed some resilience below the 100-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) last Friday. The subsequent move up validates the near-term constructive outlook for the commodity. That said, oscillators on the daily chart are yet to confirm a positive bias and warrant some caution before positioning for any further appreciation. 

Hence, any further move up is likely to confront some resistance near the $31.65 region ahead of the $32.00 mark. Some follow-through buying beyond the latter could trigger a short-covering rally and lift the XAG/USD to the $32.40-$32.45 hurdle. Bulls might then aim to surpass the $33.00 round-figure mark and test the February monthly swing high, around the $33.40 area.

On the flip side, the daily trough, around mid-$31.00s, now seems to protect the immediate downside ahead of the $31.20 area and the $31.00 mark. The latter coincides with the 100-day EMA pivotal support, which if broken decisively will be seen as a key trigger for bearish traders and make the XAG/USD vulnerable to accelerate the fall towards the $30.25 support zone.

The downward trajectory could extend further toward the $30.00 psychological mark en route to the $29.55-$29.50 horizontal support. The XAG/USD could eventually drop to the $29.00 round figure and December 2024 swing low, around the $28.80-$28.75 area.

XAG/USD daily chart

Adobe’s stock price (ADBE) edged higher in the intraday levels while trying to recoup some recent losses, as it vented off oversold saturation in the RSI, while still suffering negative from trading below the 50-day SMA, amid the dominance of the main downward trend in the medium term, while trading alongside the secondary short-term trend line. 

Therefore we expect the stock to return lower, targeting the support of $403.75, provided the resistance of $465.70 holds on.

Trend forecast for today: likely Bearish 

XAU/USD Current price: $2,909.49

• US President Donald Trump’s trade war spurred global concens, stocks sell-off.
• Resurgent demand for safety sent Gold prices to fresh one-week highs.
• XAU/USD retreats from fresh weekly highs, retains its positive bias.

Spot Gold reconquered the $2,900 threshold early on Tuesday, following United States (US) President Donald Trump’s tariffs announcement. Levies on Canada and Mexico of 25% came into effect alongside an additional 10% on imports coming from China.

Canada responded with reciprocal tariffs, China with 15% levies on agricultural products, while Mexico announced tariffs and non-tariffs counter-measures will come next Sunday.  As a result, risk aversion fueled demand for the bright metal and sent the US Dollar (USD)  into a selling spiral throughout the first half of the day, as markets fear the unleashed trade war would affect US economic growth and boost inflationary pressures.

The USD recovered some ground after Wall Street’s opening, finally finding near-term demand of panic. US indexes, in the meantime, followed their overseas counterparts and are in sell-off mode, with the three major indexes down roughly 2% each.

XAU/USD short-term technical outlook

XAU/USD, in the meantime, retains the $2,900 mark but retreated from an intraday peak of $2,927.91. The daily chart shows the pair is up for a second consecutive day, with another leg north still in doubt. XAU/USD is currently battling to overcome a mildly bullish 20 Simple Moving Average (SMA) while the 100 and 200 SMAs recovered their upward slopes far below the current level. Technical indicators, in the meantime, advance with moderated strength and within neutral levels, not enough to confirm a higher high.

The near-term picture shows Gold corrected overbought conditions. In the 4-hour chart, XAU/USD hovers around a flat 100 SMA while developing far above bullish 20 and 200 SMAs. Technical indicators, in the meantime, retreated from their early peaks, maintaining their downward slopes, although well above their midlines.

Support levels: 2,894.25 2,876.90 2,858.70  

Resistance levels: 2,927.90 2,941.40 2,956.10

At 14:13 GMT, Natural Gas Futures are trading $4.284, up $0.162 or +3.93%.

How Are Weather and Storage Deficits Impacting the Market?

Natural gas demand is expected to ease midweek as weather models have reduced heating degree days by 5–6. While the current pattern brings colder systems across the U.S., milder breaks will limit overall demand. NatGasWeather projects only moderate demand early in the week before declining to low levels midweek.

On the supply side, storage levels are raising concerns. The latest EIA report shows a significant 261 Bcf withdrawal, bringing total working gas to 1,840 Bcf—561 Bcf below last year and 238 Bcf under the five-year average. The sharp storage deficit highlights the challenge of rebuilding stocks heading into the summer injection season, particularly with LNG exports drawing record volumes of supply.

Can LNG Exports and Production Trends Sustain the Rally?

LNG exports continue to play a major role in tightening U.S. supply. With export facilities running at full capacity, domestic inventories are being depleted at a faster pace. The market’s ability to replenish storage will depend on production levels, which have been rising but remain constrained by producer discipline.

A prolonged period of strong LNG demand and restrained domestic production could leave the market exposed to price spikes if summer cooling demand intensifies. European gas prices have also surged, reinforcing the bullish case for U.S. exports.

What’s the Market Outlook?

With natural gas futures reclaiming key levels and storage deficits widening, the market is set up for further upside. A break above $4.476 could trigger fresh buying, pushing prices toward $4.714–$4.805. However, traders should monitor weather trends and production updates closely, as a shift to milder forecasts or stronger output could limit the rally’s momentum.

Platinum price started to get the positive momentum, to start covering the recently suffered losses, noticing its fluctuation near the MA55 at 959.00$.

Note that succeeding to hold above 950.00$ will increase the chances of providing new bullish trades, to attempt to record additional gains by targeting 971.00$ and 983.00$ levels, while settling below 950.00$ again will force it to activate the negative attack, to suffer many losses by moving towards 935.00$ first,

The expected trading range for today is between 950.00$ and 971.00$

Trend forecast: Bullish

• XAG/USD reclaims $31.50, as tariff uncertainty lifts demand.
• Silver rebounds after dipping below 50-day SMA, now targeting $32.00.
• Trump confirms March 4 tariffs on Mexico, Canada, and China, fueling safe-haven demand.
• A daily close above $31.50 could pave the way for a retest of $33.20.

Silver price recovers, climbs above the $31.50 mark on Monday as the Greenback depreciates sharply across the board. Tariffs on Mexico, Canada and China would begin on March 4, according to US President Donald Trump in a press conference held at the Oval Office. This and the drop in US Treasury bond yields keep XAG/USD trading at $31.67, gaining over 1.76%.

XAG/USD Price Forecast: Technical outlook

Silver price rebound after dipping below the 50-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) of $30.93, before reclaiming $31.00. On its way to the current spot price, XAG/USD climbed past the 100-day SMA at $31.21, exacerbating Silver’s advance past the $31.50 area.

If XAG/USD closes on a daily basis above the latter, it would be poised to challenge key resistance levels like the $32.00 mark, and the February 20 peak at $33.20.

Conversely, if XAG/USD drops below $31.50, the immediate support would be the 50-day SMA, followed by the 200-day SMA at $30.43.

XAG/USD Price Chart – Daily

Adobe’s stock price (ADBE) edged higher in the intraday levels while trying to recoup some recent losses, as it vented off oversold saturation in the RSI, while still suffering negative from trading below the 50-day SMA, amid the dominance of the main downward trend in the medium term, while trading alongside the secondary short-term trend line. 

Therefore we expect the stock to return lower, targeting the support of $403.75, provided the resistance of $465.70 holds on.

Trend forecast for today: likely Bearish 

The GBPCAD price reacted to the positive factors represented by leaning within the bullish channel in addition to the continuous positive momentum coming by the major indicators, to notice forming new bullish rally recently and surpass 1.8235 recorded high to start recording new gains by reaching 1.8445.

Note that stochastic continuous fluctuation within the overbought areas might increase the chances of gaining the required additional positive momentum to target more positive stations, to expect targeting 1.8470 as a first additional station, followed by reaching the bullish channel’s resistance line at 1.8600.

The expected trading range for today is between 1.8340 and 1.8470

Trend forecast: Bullish

No news for copper price, to continue providing slow sideways trades by settling near 4.5400$, affected by the contradiction between the major indicators until this moment, reminding you that the frequent stability below 4.6800$ barrier reinforces the chances of resuming the negative correction that might target 4.3900$ level soon, followed by reaching the minor bullish channels’ support line at 4.3200$.

The expected trading range for today is between 4.3900$ and 4.5600$

Trend forecast: Bearish