The price of Bitcoin (BTCUSD) continued to decline in its recent intraday trading, settling below the key support level of $77,000, confirming its break. This increases the possibility of further price decline, especially as it trades near a descending minor trendline within the main bearish trend in the short term, with additional confirming signals from the Relative Strength Index indicators (RSI), despite reaching excessive oversold areas.
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As shown on the chart, there have been two previous large downswings since the 2023 peak of $95.50. The first (A) found a bottom after a 29% price correction and the second ended after a 25.3% decline. As of this week’s low, the current bearish correction has crude oil down by 28%. Once there is symmetry between the swings, there is a chance for signs of support and the completion of the correction. It is another piece of technical evidence identifying a potential short-term low in crude oil.
Reaching Oversold Conditions
The relative strength index (RSI) has fallen to oversold levels and the test of support near the lower end of the trend channel is also a sign that the price of crude may be oversold. Nonetheless, selling pressure remains as the closing price today will be a new low for the bearish correction.
Upside Potential?
I decisive advance above Tuesday’s high of $61.88 would be needed for signs of strength that may continue. Once the lower blue channel line is exceeded to the upside the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement at $63.57 becomes a target. Also, Monday’s high at $64.05 is close by. If strength can be maintained above that level, the next higher target zone is around previous price support and the 50% retracement level at $65.41 to $65.27, respectively.
Since that price zone may have greater significance given the previous long-term support level (now resistance), it looks like there is a good chance it is reached if there is a bullish reversal before new lows. Then, after the 50% level, the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement at $67.37 and the 20-Day MA, now at $67.69, become the next upside target.
Bearish Continuation would Target $57.21
On the downside, the next lower price zone identified for potential support is from $57.21 to $56.37. Crude is well on its way to reaching the price zone and therefore it may do so, and it may be soon.
The inside day pattern may complete as a bearish doji shooting start candlestick pattern. Although that pattern is typically more reliable at market tops, it still reflects sellers being in control for the day, as the day’s closing price is set to be near the lows of the day. Therefore, a decline below $2,975 will trigger a breakdown of the inside day shooting star pattern.
Shows Relative Strength
Gold has held up better than many assets during recent global market volatility as it has only fallen by 6.7% and it remains above the 50-Day MA. Although dropping below the rising trendline and 20-Day MA are signs of weakness, the relationship to the 50-Day line is now key support. If gold remains above the 50-Day MA, it has a chance for the advance to continue. But a decisive decline below the 50-Day line could change that.
50-Day Moving Average Support is Key
Lower potential support levels that are below the 50-Day line, include a 78.6% retracement level at $2,904, a 50% retracement of a larger swing at $2,875, and a prior interim swing low at $2,833. Those price areas can be watched for possible support along with the next lower long-term uptrend line (purple). If the 50-Day MA fails as support, the next trend indicator is the purple uptrend line, and therefore it has a good chance of being reached if gold drops below and then stays below the 50-Day MA.
Upside Breakout Faces 20-Day Moving Average
On the upside, a one-day bullish reversal above today’s high of $3,023 may lead to a test of resistance around the 20-Day MA at $3,036. Then there is Monday’s high of $3,055. Gold would need to trade above and stay above $2,023 before it has a chance to challenge recent highs.
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Silver bounces from $28.33 after failed bearish breakout, reclaiming $29.80 with eyes set on $30.00 resistance.
Technical setup turns bullish as RSI exits oversold territory and hammer pattern signals momentum shift.
Daily close above $29.70 could open door to $30.87 (200-day SMA), while downside risk emerges below $29.50.
Silver price sellers failed to decisively clear support at $28.75 daily, and buyers stepped in near yearly lows of $28.33, pushing the grey metal’s price back above $29.80 with traders eyeing the $30.00 mark. At the time of writing, XAG/USD trades at $29.89, up 0.89%.
XAG/USD Price Forecast: Technical outlook
Silver’s downtrend stalled and it might be poised for a leg-up due to some technical factors: the formation of a hammer, and the Relative Strength Index (RSI) exiting oversold conditions, with the index punching above the 30 level, a signal that usually is bullish for traders.
Furthermore, XAG/USD trades above the January 25 low of $29.70, and a daily close above the latter could sponsor a test of the $30.00 level. Once cleared, the next stop would be the 200-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) at $30.87, followed by the $31.00 mark.
On the other hand, a drop below $29.50 could pave the way for further downside, with the next support being $29.00, followed by the year-to-date (YTD) low of $28.33.
XAG/USD Price Chart – Daily
Silver FAQs
Silver is a precious metal highly traded among investors. It has been historically used as a store of value and a medium of exchange. Although less popular than Gold, traders may turn to Silver to diversify their investment portfolio, for its intrinsic value or as a potential hedge during high-inflation periods. Investors can buy physical Silver, in coins or in bars, or trade it through vehicles such as Exchange Traded Funds, which track its price on international markets.
Silver prices can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can make Silver price escalate due to its safe-haven status, although to a lesser extent than Gold’s. As a yieldless asset, Silver tends to rise with lower interest rates. Its moves also depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAG/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Silver at bay, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to propel prices up. Other factors such as investment demand, mining supply – Silver is much more abundant than Gold – and recycling rates can also affect prices.
Silver is widely used in industry, particularly in sectors such as electronics or solar energy, as it has one of the highest electric conductivity of all metals – more than Copper and Gold. A surge in demand can increase prices, while a decline tends to lower them. Dynamics in the US, Chinese and Indian economies can also contribute to price swings: for the US and particularly China, their big industrial sectors use Silver in various processes; in India, consumers’ demand for the precious metal for jewellery also plays a key role in setting prices.
Silver prices tend to follow Gold’s moves. When Gold prices rise, Silver typically follows suit, as their status as safe-haven assets is similar. The Gold/Silver ratio, which shows the number of ounces of Silver needed to equal the value of one ounce of Gold, may help to determine the relative valuation between both metals. Some investors may consider a high ratio as an indicator that Silver is undervalued, or Gold is overvalued. On the contrary, a low ratio might suggest that Gold is undervalued relative to Silver.
Crude oil prices (Crude Oil) have dropped in recent intraday trading, as negative signals from the relative strength indicators have started to appear again. This follows the price’s success in surpassing its previous overbought conditions, amidst the dominance of the main downward trend in the short term.
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The White House announced 104% tariffs on China starting April 9.
Chinese authorities will keep fighting US tariffs, details on counter-measures still missing.
XAU/USD is at risk of falling further according to near-term technical readings.
Gold price hovered above the $3,000 mark for most of this Tuesday, as tariffs-related panic eased, leading to a modest recovery in global equities. The XAU/USD pair pierced the figure in the American session, but trades within a limited intraday range, as trade war-related headlines keep rocking the board.
The tepid good mood seen throughout the first half of the day soured on headlines indicating that the White House Press Secretary said 104% additional tariffs went into effect at noon Eastern time because China has not removed its retaliation. The 104% additional tariff will be collected starting tomorrow, April 9. Wall Street holds on to the green, but trimmed half of its early gains, helping the US Dollar (USD) across the board.
Earlier in the day, China’s Commerce Ministry said they would “fight to the end” against US tariffs. There were no specific details on how Beijing will retaliate, but indeed, the answer is coming. Additionally, Chinese authorities noted that if the United States (US) wants to talk, it should show respect. Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesperson Lin Jian added that “We will continue to take resolute and strong measures to safeguard our legitimate rights and interests.”
The world keeps revolving around US President Donald Trump’s trade war, and the recent calm is just a pause. Turmoil is expected to continue in the upcoming days, as more major economies are likely to announce countermeasures.
XAU/USD short-term technical outlook
From a technical point of view, the daily chart for the XAU/USD pair shows that the intraday spike was quickly reversed, and that the pair trades at fresh daily lows in the $2,970.00 region. The risk remains skewed to the downside, as Gold develops below its 20 Simple Moving Average (SMA), which lacks clear directional strength. The 100 and 200 SMAs maintain their upward slopes far below the current level, yet technical indicators stand well below their midlines, partially losing their bearish strength.
In the near term, and according to the 4-hour chart, the bearish case is clearer. A bearish 20 SMA crossed below a flat 100 SMA, while XAU/USD is currently sliding below the 200 SMA. Finally, technical indicators remain within negative levels without certain directional strength.
Support levels: 2,970.30 2,959.00 2,942.50
Resistance levels: 2,998.30 3,015.55 3,022.60
Tariffs FAQs
Tariffs are customs duties levied on certain merchandise imports or a category of products. Tariffs are designed to help local producers and manufacturers be more competitive in the market by providing a price advantage over similar goods that can be imported. Tariffs are widely used as tools of protectionism, along with trade barriers and import quotas.
Although tariffs and taxes both generate government revenue to fund public goods and services, they have several distinctions. Tariffs are prepaid at the port of entry, while taxes are paid at the time of purchase. Taxes are imposed on individual taxpayers and businesses, while tariffs are paid by importers.
There are two schools of thought among economists regarding the usage of tariffs. While some argue that tariffs are necessary to protect domestic industries and address trade imbalances, others see them as a harmful tool that could potentially drive prices higher over the long term and lead to a damaging trade war by encouraging tit-for-tat tariffs.
During the run-up to the presidential election in November 2024, Donald Trump made it clear that he intends to use tariffs to support the US economy and American producers. In 2024, Mexico, China and Canada accounted for 42% of total US imports. In this period, Mexico stood out as the top exporter with $466.6 billion, according to the US Census Bureau. Hence, Trump wants to focus on these three nations when imposing tariffs. He also plans to use the revenue generated through tariffs to lower personal income taxes.
The EURUSD pair declined in its last intraday trading, to clear most of its early gains, and settling below 1.0945, this is amidst the continued dominance of a corrective downward wave and its trading along a trend line on the intraday levels, after the price attempted to offload some of its clear oversold condition on the (RSI).
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Natural gas price remains affected by stochastic negativity, to be forced to delay the bullish rally and providing mixed trading, noticing testing the extra support at 3.610$ yesterday and holding above it.
We expect providing more of the sideways trading until gathering the positive momentum, to ease the mission of renewing the bullish rally and begin targeting the positive stations near 3.950$ and 4.180$, while facing new negative pressure and breaking 3.600$ level will cancel the bullish scenario for the near trading, which force the price to suffer new losses by its decline towards 3.560$ and 3.380$.
The expected trading range for today is between 3.600$ and 3.950$
Apple’s stock price (AAPL) tumbled in latest intraday trading, amid the dominance of the downward correctional trend, while the price is hurt by a negative technical pattern that formed in the short term, the Head and Shoulders pattern, with negative signals streaming from the Stochastic after forming a negative divergence, which bolstered the downward trend.
Therefore we expect more losses for the price, targeting the first support at $178.35 as a price target for the forming Head and Shoulders pattern.
Platinum price confirmed its interaction with the support base at 895.00$, getting advantage from stochastic attempt to provide positive momentum, forming a new positive rally and settled near 930.00$.
The repeated stability above the mentioned support will increase the chances for compensating the losses, to expect the price rally towards 940.00$ reaching the resistance at 960.00$, while activating the bearish track requires a negative close below the current support, then begin targeting several negative stations, the initial target for the negative trading is located at 880.00$.
The expected trading range for today is between 910.00$ and 945.00$
