Brent oil price continued to rise to test 74.00$ level, noticing that the price consolidates below this level after attempting to breach it in the previous sessions, accompanied by witnessing clear negative signals through stochastic, which overlaps negatively now.
Gold price sits at two-week lows below $2,900, awaiting US PCE inflation data.
US Dollar stands tall amid Trump’s tariff threats while US Treasury yields tank on dovish Fed bets.
Gold price finds acceptance below the 21-day SMA at $2,890, but the daily RSI stays bullish.
Gold price struggles near two-week lows below $2,900 in Friday’s Asian trading hours, looking to snap its eight consecutive weekly gains.
Gold price suffers amid US Dollar resurgence
Gold price is nursing losses as the US Dollar (USD) stands tall amid risk-off flows extending into Asia this Friday. Traders weigh the latest tariff threats from US President Donald Trump and the sharp decline in the American artificial intelligence (AI) leader Nvidia’s share price.
Trump confirmed on Thursday that his proposed 25% tariffs on Mexican and Canadian goods will take effect March 4 along with an extra 10% duty on Chinese imports as fentanyl continues to pour into the US from those countries.
His latest remarks brushed aside his Wednesday message that steep 25% tariffs on Mexican and Canadian goods could take effect on April 2.
The broader market sentiment also remains undermined due to heightening US economic concerns and the slump in Nividia and other so-called “Magnificent Seven” Wall Street mega-cap stocks, following the chipmaker’s discouraging earnings.
Data on Thursday showed that the second estimate of the fourth-quarter US Gross Domestic Product (GDP) held steady from the advance estimates, showing an annualised growth of 2.3% in Q4 2024. Meanwhile, the number of Americans filing for jobless benefits rose by 22,000 to 242,000 for the week ending Feb. 22, hitting the highest level in three months.
Against this background, the Greenback will likely keep the upper hand across the board, maintaining the downside pressure on the USD-denominated bright metal.
However, weak US economic data-led dovish Federal Reserve (Fed) interest rate cut expectations combined with increased safe-haven flows into the US government bonds remain a headwind for the US Treasury bond yields.
The benchmark 10-year US Treasury bond yields extend their losing streak, flirting with 11-week lows near 4.20% at the press time. The ongoing decline in the US yields could hinder the US Dollar recovery, cushioning the Gold price downside.
That said, the upcoming Fed’s preferred inflation gauge, the core Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index, will help trigger the next direction in Gold price. The annual US core PCE Price Index is set to rise 2.6% in January after increasing 2.8% in December. Any significant deviation from the forecast will likely impact the Fed rate cut bets, influencing the Greenback and the yellow metal.
Further, the end-of-the-month flows and more commentary from US President Trump could also play a pivotal role in driving the Gold price action as the week draws to a close.
Gold price technical analysis: Daily chart
The daily chart shows that Gold price closed Thursday below the critical short-term support of the 21-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) at $2,890, inducing further downward pressure.
However, Gold price remains above the 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI), currently near 53.50, indicating that buyers refuse to give up yet.
If sellers flex their muscles, the immediate support is seen at the February 12 low of $2,864, below which the $2,850 psychological barrier will be challenged.
Additional declines will threaten the February 6 low of $2,834.
Should Gold buyers seek a weekly closing above the 21-day SMA support-tuned resistance at $2,890, a fresh uptrend could be fuelled toward the February 26 high of $2,930.
The next upside target on buyers’ radars will be an all-time high at $2,956.
Economic Indicator
Core Personal Consumption Expenditures – Price Index (YoY)
The Core Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE), released by the US Bureau of Economic Analysis on a monthly basis, measures the changes in the prices of goods and services purchased by consumers in the United States (US). The PCE Price Index is also the Federal Reserve’s (Fed) preferred gauge of inflation. The YoY reading compares the prices of goods in the reference month to the same month a year earlier. The core reading excludes the so-called more volatile food and energy components to give a more accurate measurement of price pressures.” Generally, a high reading is bullish for the US Dollar (USD), while a low reading is bearish.
The GBPJPY pair touched 187.68 level this morning, achieving some previously waited negative targets, followed by waiting to form quick correctional rebound to settle near 188.70.
The current rebound won’t form any effect on the bearish scenario due to the consolidation within the bearish channel, in addition to 189.80 level forming strong additional barrier, thus, we will keep waiting to renew the negative attempts to expect moving towards 187.10 soon.
The expected trading range for today is between 187.10 and 189.50
Copper price started today by providing new negative close below 50% Fibonacci correction level at 4.5400$, confirming its surrender to the previously suggested bareish scenario to repeat its fluctuation near 4.4900$ level.
We expect to get more negative momentum by stochastic to start targeting the negative stations, located near 4.4100$ and 4.3200$ now.
The expected trading range for today is between 4.4100$ and 4.5600$
Platinum price resumed the negative attempts, surpassing the first target at 950.00$, confirming its preparation to provide more negative attempts on the near-term and medium-term basis.
Also, the EMA50 forms additional barrier now at 960.00$, and stochastic provides the negative momentum, to increase the chances of attacking 941.00$ level, while breaking it might extend losses towards 920.00$ on the near-term basis.
The expected trading range for today is between 941.00$ and 960.00$
Silver price declines to near $32.00 even though US President Trump has confirmed that the 25% tariff plan on Canada and Mexico is intact.
The US Dollar steadies as investors digest weak US flash S&P Global Services PMI for February.
Investors seek fresh developments on peace talks for calling off war in Ukraine.
Silver price (XAG/USD) falls for a straight third trading day and declines to near $32.00 in European trading hours on Tuesday. The white metal weakens even though United States (US) President Donald Trump has confirmed that his plans of imposing 25% tariffs on Canada and Mexico on March 4, which were delayed by a month, are on.
“The tariffs are going forward on time, on schedule,” Trump said during a press conference on Monday.
President Trump postponed his tariffs plans after his North American peers agreed to criminal enforcement at borders to restrict the flow of fentanyl and illegal immigrants. Tariffs by the US on its close peers are expected to heighten political risks and weigh on the global economic outlook. Such a scenario remains favorable for precious metals, such as Silver.
Meanwhile, steadiness in the US Dollar (USD) after a recovery move from its fresh 11-week low has weighed on the Silver price to some extent. The US Dollar rebounds as investors digest weak flash US S&P Global PMI data for February, which was released on Friday. The PMI report showed that the Services PMI, which gauges activities in the services sector, contracted for the first time after expanding for 25 straight months.
Going forward, investors will focus on Russia-US peace talks to end the war in Ukraine, which has entered its fourth year. Geopolitical tensions increase the safe-haven demand of the Silver price.
On Monday, French President Emmanuel Macron met Donald Trump to avoid a quick ceasefire deal and discussed military guarantees to Ukraine, Reuters report.
Silver technical analysis
Silver price retraces after failing to extend its upside above the February 14 high of $33.40 on Thursday. The outlook of the white metal remains bullish as the 50-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) has been sloping higher, which trades around $31.40.
The 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) falls inside the 40.00-60.00 range, suggesting that the bullish momentum has faded. However, the bullish bias remains intact.
Looking down, the upward-sloping trendline from the August 8 low of $26.45 will act as key support for the Silver price around $30.00. While, the October 22 high of $34.87 will be the key barrier.
Silver daily chart
Silver FAQs
Silver is a precious metal highly traded among investors. It has been historically used as a store of value and a medium of exchange. Although less popular than Gold, traders may turn to Silver to diversify their investment portfolio, for its intrinsic value or as a potential hedge during high-inflation periods. Investors can buy physical Silver, in coins or in bars, or trade it through vehicles such as Exchange Traded Funds, which track its price on international markets.
Silver prices can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can make Silver price escalate due to its safe-haven status, although to a lesser extent than Gold’s. As a yieldless asset, Silver tends to rise with lower interest rates. Its moves also depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAG/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Silver at bay, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to propel prices up. Other factors such as investment demand, mining supply – Silver is much more abundant than Gold – and recycling rates can also affect prices.
Silver is widely used in industry, particularly in sectors such as electronics or solar energy, as it has one of the highest electric conductivity of all metals – more than Copper and Gold. A surge in demand can increase prices, while a decline tends to lower them. Dynamics in the US, Chinese and Indian economies can also contribute to price swings: for the US and particularly China, their big industrial sectors use Silver in various processes; in India, consumers’ demand for the precious metal for jewellery also plays a key role in setting prices.
Silver prices tend to follow Gold’s moves. When Gold prices rise, Silver typically follows suit, as their status as safe-haven assets is similar. The Gold/Silver ratio, which shows the number of ounces of Silver needed to equal the value of one ounce of Gold, may help to determine the relative valuation between both metals. Some investors may consider a high ratio as an indicator that Silver is undervalued, or Gold is overvalued. On the contrary, a low ratio might suggest that Gold is undervalued relative to Silver.
Brent oil price continued to rise to test 74.00$ level, noticing that the price consolidates below this level after attempting to breach it in the previous sessions, accompanied by witnessing clear negative signals through stochastic, which overlaps negatively now.
US President Donald Trump rectified tariffs will come into effect on March 4.
The US will publish the January PCE Price Index on Friday.
XAU/USD fell to fresh weekly lows, with another leg south likely.
Spot Gold trades near a fresh weekly low of $2,867.76 on Thursday as risk aversion fueled demand for the safe-haven US Dollar (USD) across the Forex board. The United States (US) released relevant macroeconomic data, which fell short of impressive.
On the one hand, the US confirmed the annualized Q4 Gross Domestic Product (GDP) at 2.3% in the second estimate of the figure, although quarterly Personal Consumption Expenditures Prices suffered an upward revision to 2.4% from the previous estimate of 2.3%, and the core PCE prices were even higher, hitting 2.7% from the previous 2.5%.
On the other hand, Initial Jobless Claims rose to 242K in the week ended February 22, much higher than the 221K anticipated by market players. Also, Durable Goods Orders were up 3.1% in January, beating expectations of 2%. Finally, Pending Home Sales fell by 4.6% in the same month, much worse than the -1.3% expected.
However, what actually triggered fears was US President Donald Trump. After suggesting tariffs on Canada and Mexico will start in April on Wednesday, Trump rectified himself and clarified levies will go into effect on March 4 as scheduled. He also added an additional 10% tariff on China on the same date and said that reciprocal tariffs would come into effect on April 2.
Other than that, the US will publish on Friday the January Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index, the Federal Reserve’s (Fed) favorite inflation gauge. The PCE Price Index is foreseen up 0.3% on a monthly basis and by 2.5% from a year earlier.
XAU/USD short-term technical outlook
The daily chart for the XAU/USD pair shows an increased bearish potential, as it is breaking below a bullish 20 Simple Moving Average (SMA), the first time below it since January 7. The pair remains far above bullish 100 and 200 SMAs, yet technical indicators maintain their firmly bearish slopes, approaching their midlines from above.
In the near term and according to the 4-hour chart, XAU/USD extended its slide below the 20 and 100 SMAs, with the shorter gaining downward traction above the longer one. Technical indicators, in the meantime, have resumed their slides near oversold readings, maintaining a strong bearish momentum and anticipating lower lows ahead.
It is possible that today’s breakdown fails and instead support is retained, leading a rally. A decisive breakout above today’s high of $4.07 would provide a sign of strength that could lead to higher prices. Subsequently, Tuesday’s high at $4.19 would need to be exceeded for additional bullish confirmation. There is a price range of potentially significant resistance around the two most recent swing highs from $4.37 to $4.48.
Deeper Retracement More Likely
Nonetheless, given today’s bearish signal, the more likely scenario to play out is a deeper bearish pullback. Although there is an interim potential support zone around the 50% retracement at $3.73, it also begins a range of potential support going down to a weekly low at $3.55. Both the 20-Day and 50-Day MAs are rising and may converge with the 50% zone prior to it being tested as support.
If that happens it may provide a more significant support area given the convergence of several indicators. Further, the 20-Day MA is poised to cross above the 50-Day line, providing another sign of strength. Since the 50-Day MA covers a larger trend than the 20-Day line, it is given priority.
It is also interesting to note that on the weekly chart (not shown) support for this week is around the 200-Week MA, now at $3.92. The low for the week is today’s low at $3.88.
For a look at all of today’s economic events, check out our economic calendar.
Despite platinum price surrender to the domination of the sideways bias, providing new negative closings below 983.00$ barrier supports the domination of the previously suggested bearish bias, to notice facing the MA55 by settling at 960.00$.
The price needs new negative momentum to manage to decline below the current obstacle and start targeting the previously suggested negative stations, located at 950.00$ and 941.00$.
The expected trading range for today is between 950.00$ and 970.00$
