Brent oil price provided new negative trades to approach our first waited target at 72.20$, and continues to move inside the main bearish channel that appears on the chart, which supports the chances of continuing the bearish trend on the intraday and short-term basis, supported by the EMA50.

• Gold price reverses previous gains to tread water above $2,900 early Thursday.
• US Dollar rebounds on mixed Trump’s tariff messages and firm US Treasury bond yields.
• Gold buyers defend the 21-day SMA at $2,890 as the daily RSI stays bullish.
• The Q4 US GDP revision and Fedspeak could provide fresh impetus to Gold traders.

Gold price is unable to hold on to the modest gains booked on Wednesday as buyers and sellers enter a tug-of-war situation early Thursday, courtesy of the uncertainty around US President Donald Trump’s tariff plans and lingering US economic concerns.    

Gold price down but not out ahead of US GDP, Trump

Following his Tuesday remarks that 25% tariffs on Canada and Mexico remain on track from March 4, Trump shifted his message in American trading on Wednesday, noting that steep 25% tariffs on Mexican and Canadian goods could take effect on April 2.

Trump’s conflicting messages keep the haven demand for the US Dollar (USD) alive and kicking at the expense of the Gold price. Further, the rebound in the US Treasury bond yields also check the Gold price upside.

Additionally, the end-of-the-month short-covering contributes to the recent USD upswing. The Greenback is down nearly 4% from a more than two-year high hit in January.

Upbeat results from the American artificial intelligence (AI) leader Nvidia, following Wednesday’s market close, seem to keep the broader market sentiment lifted, reflected by the 0.20% gain in the US S&P 500 futures.

The cautiously optimistic market mood reduces the demand for the US government bonds, fuelling a modest uptick in the US Treasury bond yields.

However, any downside in Gold price could be quickly bought into as markets continue to price in two interest rate cuts by the US Federal Reserve (Fed) this year in the face of mounting economic slowdown concerns. US Consumer Confidence Index declined 7 points on Tuesday, its most significant fall since August 2021, to 98.3, well below the Reuters estimate of 102.5.

Therefore, all eyes remain on the US Gross Domestic Product (GDP) second revision print for the fourth quarter of 2024 for fresh signs on the health of the economy, which could significantly impact the direction of the Fed interest rates and the US Dollar, eventually influencing the non-yielding Gold price.

The second estimate of the US GDP is expected to show a 2.3% annualized growth in Q4 2024, as seen in the advance release. Gold buyers will likely jump back in the game on a downward revision to the preliminary reading and vice-versa.

Also of note will be the US Durable Goods Orders, Pending Home Sales data and speeches from several Fed policymakers. However, US President Donald Trump’s media address later in the early American session could steal the show and reverse any Gold price reaction to the US data releases.

Gold price technical analysis: Daily chart

Gold price outlook appears more or less the same from a short-term technical perspective.

So long as the Gold price defends the 21-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) at $2,890 and the 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) sits above 50, the bullish potential will likely remain intact.

Gold buyers could retest the all-time highs at $2,956 on acceptance above the previous day’s high of $2,930. The next topside barriers are seen at the $2,970 resistance and the $3,000 threshold.

If sellers crack the 21-day SMA at $2,890 on a daily candlestick closing basis, the downside could open toward the February 14 low of $2,877.

The last line of defense for Gold buyers is at the $2,850 psychological barrier.

Natural gas price touched 4.186$ level yesterday followed by surrendering to stochastic intraday negativity, to notice retesting 3.950$ support line and settling above it to confirm keeping the previously suggested bullish bias.

Now, stochastic attempt to gather the positive momentum will increase the chances of rallying towards 4.240$ to form the first target for the current trades, while surpassing it might extend trades towards 4.500$ recorded high direct.

The expected trading range for today is between 3.900$ and 4.240$

Trend forecast: Bullish

Copper price surrendered to the stability of 4.6800$ barrier to force it to activate the bearish track again by crawling below 50% Fibonacci correction level and settling near 4.4900$.

Stochastic attempt to provide the negative momentum increases the negative pressures, to expect suffering additional losses by moving towards 4.4100$ followed by reaching the MA55 at 4.3200$.

The expected trading range for today is between 4.4100$ and 4.5600$

Trend forecast: Bearish

• Silver remains below $32.00 on Thursday and close to a two-week low touched on Tuesday.
• The technical setup seems tilted in favor of bears and supports prospects for further losses.
• A sustained break below the 100-day SMA support is needed to reaffirm the negative bias. 

Silver (XAG/USD) struggles to capitalize on the previous day’s modest gains and oscillates in a narrow trading band, below the $32.00 round-figure mark during the Asian session on Thursday. The white metal, meanwhile, holds above the 100-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) pivotal support, currently pegged near the $31.30-$31.25 zone, or a two-week low touched on Tuesday. 

From a technical perspective, the recent repeated failures to find acceptance above the $33.00 mark and the subsequent downfall favor bearish traders. Moreover, oscillators on the daily chart have just started gaining negative traction and support prospects for an extension of a one-week-old downtrend. The XAG/USD might then weaken further below the $31.00 round-figure mark, towards testing the next relevant support near the $30.25 region.

The downward trajectory could extend further towards the $30.00 psychological mark. A convincing break below the latter will suggest that the XAG/USD has topped out in the near term and pave the way for a further depreciating move towards the $29.55-$29.50 horizontal zone en route to the $29.00 round figure and December 2024 swing low, around the $28.80-$28.75 area. 

On the flip side, any positive move beyond the $32.00 mark is likely to confront some resistance near the $32.40-$32.45 region. Some follow-through buying should allow the XAG/USD to make a fresh attempt toward conquering the $33.00 round figure. A sustained strength beyond the latter could lift the commodity towards the monthly swing high, around the $33.40 area touched on February 14, and aim towards reclaiming the $34.00 mark.

Brent oil price provided new negative trades to approach our first waited target at 72.20$, and continues to move inside the main bearish channel that appears on the chart, which supports the chances of continuing the bearish trend on the intraday and short-term basis, supported by the EMA50.

• Gold price posts modest gains to near $2,920 in Thursday’s early Asian session. 
• Uncertainty and safe haven buying provide some support to Gold. 
• A hawkish Fed might cap the upside for the Gold price. 

Gold price (XAU/USD) trades with mild gains around $2,920 during the early Asian session on Thursday. Trade tensions and economic uncertainty continue to drive demand for safe-haven assets like Gold. 

Late Wednesday, US President Donald Trump reiterated his insistence on 25% tariffs on Canada and Mexico, as well as adding the European Union (EU) to the mixed list of countries from which he will penalize US consumers for importing. Trump added that tariffs on Canada and Mexico will go into effect on April 2.

Market players will closely watch the developments surrounding further Trump’s tariff policies. The tariff uncertainty could boost the safe-haven flows, benefiting the precious metal. 

On the other hand, Trump’s plans for higher tariffs have raised inflation worries at the US Federal Reserve (Fed), which might convince the US central bank to keep interest rates higher for longer. This, in turn, might cap the upside for the precious metal as higher interest rates tarnish non-yielding gold’s appeal.

Additionally, analysts suggest that the pullback is part of a normal profit-taking cycle, with long-term bullish remains in place. “We continue to see an overall upward trend,” said David Meger, director of metals trading at High Ridge Futures. “This appears to be routine profit-booking rather than a shift in sentiment,” Meger added. 

Bullish if Remains Above $3.91 Support

If support remains above $3.91, natural gas may rise. Although a breakout above today’s high will show strength, an advance above Tuesday’s high at $4.19 would be a clearer bullish sign. Nonetheless, natural gas would be rising into a potential resistance zone that stopped the last two advances at $4.37 and $4.48, respectively. The rising internal trendline marks dynamic support for the uptrend and a bearish signal would be indicated on a decisive drop below that line.

Further Weakness Possible

Moreover, it would increase the risk that this week’s low of $3.91 fails as support and the price of natural gas goes down further. Since resistance was seen at the top of a large rising trend channel in the current advance and for the prior swing high, there is the possibility that the next lower trendline is eventually tested as support.

Either way, that possibility could lead to a notable bearish correction towards lower potential support levels. It is notable that since the 50-Day MA was reclaimed two weeks ago and there has not yet been a pullback to test the 50-Day line as support. That makes the 50-Day MA around $4.69 a potential target. But there are other price levels near the 50-Day line, which can be considered as well.

50-Day Moving Average Support Could be Tested

Although the 50% retracement at $3.73 is the next lower target if natural gas falls below $3.91, lower price levels converge between the 50% retracement and the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level at $3.56. The 50-Day MA is included within that price area, as well as the 20-Day MA at $3.33, plus a weekly low at $3.55.

For a look at all of today’s economic events, check out our economic calendar.

XAU/USD Current price: $2,914.01

• US Dollar seesawing between gains and losses as investors assess Trump’s words.
• The market mood improved despite global trade uncertainties triggered by the US.
• XAU/USD keeps bouncing from sub $2,900 levels, bearish correction complete.

Following a slide towards $2,891 right after Wall Street’s opening, Gold price regained the $2,900 mark and trades around $2,910 as the United States (US) President Donald Trump offers a press conference.

The US Dollar (USD) spent the day within familiar levels, seesawing between gains and losses, slightly firmer across the FX board throughout the first half of the day amid a risk-averse environment. An improved mood, however, is weighing on the American currency, as the rally in government bonds stalled and yields recovered some of yesterday’s losses. The 10-year Treasury note currently offers 4.30%, up 2 basis points (bps) in the day.

Market players shrugged off discouraging US macroeconomic data released on Tuesday, as Consumer Confidence plummeted according to the CB monthly survey. Yet, at the same time, investors stand on their toes ahead of trade-related headlines. The US government is not only working with tariffs but also with potential rate mineral deals with Russia and Ukraine.

Looking ahead, the US will publish next Friday the January Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index, the Federal Reserve’s (Fed) favorite inflation gauge. Annual inflation, as measured by the PCE index, is foreseen at 2.5%, down from the 2.6% posted in December, while the core reading is also seen declining, from 2.8% to 2.6%. Such figures should be seen as good news and revive speculation the Fed could deliver a rate cut in the first semester of the year.

XAU/USD short-term technical outlook

From a technical point of view, the XAU/USD pair’s daily chart shows buyers are still taking their chances on dips. The pair bounced from around a firmly bullish 20 Simple Moving Average (SMA) which extends its advance beyond also bullish 100 and 200 SMAs. At the same time, technical indicators have pared their corrective slides from overbought levels and stabilized above their midlines, supporting the dominant bullish trend.

The near-term picture, however, shows a limited bullish potential. In the 4-hour chart, XAU/USD recovered twice from intraday dips below a bullish 100 SMA but remains below a mildly bearish 20 SMA. Finally, technical indicators remain below their midlines, although recovering modestly, not enough to anticipate additional gains. Gold needs to run past 2,936.20 to recover its near-term bullish poise.

Support levels: 2,903.80 2,879.95 2,863.60  

Resistance levels: 2,921.50  2,636.20 2,949.45