Brent oil price declined strongly in the previous sessions to surpass our waited target at 75.66$ and open the way to continue the decline on the intraday and short term basis, as it approaches our second waited target at 74.00$, noting that the price moves within the bearish channel that appears on the chart, which supports the chances of achieving more decline in the upcoming period.

XAU/USD Current price: $2,940.67

• Geopolitical woes gather market’s attention amid a scarce macroeconomic calendar.
• Market participants resume US Dollar buying as Wall Street turns red.
• XAU/USD retreats from fresh record highs, extends consolidative phase.

Spot Gold maintained its positive momentum heading into the American opening, hitting a fresh record high of $2,956.25. The bright metal advanced despite the market’s optimism at the weekly opening.

Investors welcomed the result of the German election, as the Conservatives Party clinched a victory, although with less than 30% of the total votes. Still, a coalition government with the “failed” Social Democratic Party, which came third, fueled hopes for the country’s economic outlook.

XAU/USD, however, retreated roughly $20 after Wall Street’s opening amid a souring market mood. US indexes trimmed early gains, and only the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) holds on to modest gains. As a result, the US Dollar (USD) trades with a firmer tone across the FX board.

Attention remains on geopolitical woes. On the one hand, the United States (US) government is looking for a $500bn minerals deal with Ukraine, with Washington seeking ta tough payback for any future military aid to Kyiv. On the other hand,   Russia launched its biggest-ever aerial attack on Ukraine, using 267 drones, despite claiming its willingness to reach a deal.

The macroeconomic calendar has little relevant to offer until next Friday, when the US will release an update on the Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index, the Federal Reserve’s (Fed) favourite inflation gauge.

XAU/USD short-term technical outlook

Technically, the daily chart for the XAU/USD pair shows it trades within a well-limited range for a fourth consecutive day, albeit the risk remains skewed to the upside. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) indicator extends its consolidative phase at around 71, while the Momentum indicator eased from its recent highs but remains well above its midline. Finally, moving averages maintain their firmly bullish slopes far above the current level, with the 20 Simple Moving Average (SMA) providing dynamic support at around $2,872.

In the near term, and according to the 4-hour chart, XAU/USD trades above a flat 20 SMA, while the 100 and 200 SMAs head firmly north far below the current level. Technical indicators, in the meantime, turned south, with the Momentum crossing its midline into negative territory. Still, buyers are taking their chances on dips, limiting the bearish potential of Gold.

 Support levels: 2,934.70 2,924.10 2,913.05  

Resistance levels: 2,960.00 2,975.00 2,990.00

Brent oil price declined strongly in the previous sessions to surpass our waited target at 75.66$ and open the way to continue the decline on the intraday and short term basis, as it approaches our second waited target at 74.00$, noting that the price moves within the bearish channel that appears on the chart, which supports the chances of achieving more decline in the upcoming period.

Morgan Stanley’s stock price (MS) extended its losses in the intraday levels, amid negative signals from the RSI, while seeking a bottom to bounce it higher anew, as it also gathers positive momentum, thus leaning on the support of the 50-day SMA, and also leaning on the upward secondary trend line in the short term. 

Therefore we expect the stock to return higher, targeting the resistance of $142.00, provided the support of $127.66 holds on.

Trend forecast for today: Likely Bullish

Platinum price approached the MA55 today by touching 962.00$ level, followed by noticing new rally towards the broken bullish channel’s support line at 979.00$, taking advantage of stochastic exit from the oversold areas.

Despite the major indicators’ attempt to provide the positive momentum, the stability below 983.00$ barrier until now will confirm the price affection by the instability situation, within chances to form more negative trades to target 950.00$ level.

The expected trading range for today is between 950.00$ and 980.00$

Trend forecast: Bearish

• Silver price gains ground to near $32.70 in Monday’s Asian session, up 0.45% on the day. 
• The positive view of Silver prevails above the key 100-day EMA with the bullish RSI indicator. 
• The first upside barrier is seen at the $33.35-$33.40 region; the initial support level is located at $31.52. 

Silver price (XAG/USD) drifts higher to around $32.70 during the Asian trading hours on Monday. The weakening of the US Dollar (USD) provides some support to the USD-denominated commodity price. Furthermore, the uncertainty and concerns over US President Donald Trump’s tariff plans might boost the safe-have flows, which contribute to Silver’s upside. 

According to the daily chart, the bullish outlook of the white metal remains in place, with the price holding above the key 100-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA). The upward momentum is reinforced by the 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI), which stands above the midline near 64.40, suggesting the path of least resistance is to the upside. 

The upper boundary of the Bollinger Band and the high of February 14 of $33.35-$33.40 act as an upside barrier for Silver price. Sustained trading above this level could expose $34.55, the high of October 29, 2024. Any follow-through buying above the mentioned level could see a rally to $34.87, the high of October 22, 2024. 

On the flip side, the initial support level for XAG/USD emerges at $31.52, the low of February 12. Extended losses could see a drop to $30.90, the 100-day EMA. The next contention level is seen at $30.70, the lower limit of the Bollinger Band. 

Silver price (XAG/USD) daily chart

Brent oil price declined strongly in the previous sessions to surpass our waited target at 75.66$ and open the way to continue the decline on the intraday and short term basis, as it approaches our second waited target at 74.00$, noting that the price moves within the bearish channel that appears on the chart, which supports the chances of achieving more decline in the upcoming period.

• Gold price loses momentum to around $2,925 in Monday’s early Asian session, losing 0.38% on the day. 
• Investors take profits from Gold after reaching the previous session’s record high. 
• Fears of a global trade war sparked by Trump might keep demand for the safe-haven elevated.

Gold price (XAU/USD) drifts lower to near $2,925 during the Asian trading hours on Monday. The precious metal eases from a record high on profit-taking. However, the uncertainty and concerns over US President Donald Trump’s tariff plans might cap the downside for Gold price. 

The yellow metal faces some selling pressure after retreating from an all-time high of $2,954 last week. “It’s just a classical movement of new all-time highs and profit-taking… (but) the fundamentals for gold remain solid,” said Alex Ebkarian, chief operating officer at Allegiance Gold.

The uncertainties surrounding global economic growth and political instability have underscored investor appetite for bullion. Last week, Trump said that he will announce new tariffs within the next month, adding lumber and forest products to previously announced plans to impose duties on imported cars, semiconductors and pharmaceuticals. 

“Ongoing trade tensions continue to stoke inflation and growth concerns, and therefore safe-haven interest in gold,” said Peter Grant, vice president and senior metals strategist at Zaner Metals.

On the other hand, Minutes of the Federal Reserve’s (Fed) January meeting released last week showed that Trump’s initial policy proposals had stoked concerns over rising inflation, reinforcing the Fed’s stance to hold off on further rate cuts. This, in turn, could lift the Greenback and weigh on the USD-denominated commodity price in the near term. 

Despite platinum price attempt to face the negative pressures, the frequent consolidation below 983.00$ will increase the chances of activating the correctional bearish track on the near-term basis, to expect suffering more losses by crawling towards 950.00$

On the other hand, succeeding to jump above 983.00$ and providing positive close will allow the price to form some bullish waves, to achieve more gains by rallying towards 1000.00$ followed by reaching 61.8% Fibonacci correction level at 1017.00$.

The expected trading range for today is between 950.00$ and 983.00$

Trend forecast: Bearish

• Silver retreats to $32.54 after failing to hold above key $33.00 level.
• RSI signals mixed momentum, with downside risks if $32.00 support breaks.
• Next resistance at $33.20, while key support lies at 100-day SMA near $31.12.

Silver’s price retreats on Friday and fails to capitalize on falling US yields. According to the 10-year T-note, yields tumbled almost eight basis points to 4.431% at the time of writing. The XAG/USD trades at $32.54, down 1.20%.

XAG/USD Price Forecast: Technical outlook

XAG/USD’s uptrend remains in place, but failure to end the day/week above $33.00 exacerbated Silver’s plunge. Bullish momentum has faded, as depicted by a Relative Strength Index (RSI), which gives mixed signals. The RSI is bullish, but the slope is aiming downwards.

Buyers must clear the February 20 high at $33.20 for a bullish continuation. Once done, further upside Is seen, with the next resistance being the February 14 peak at $33.39 ahead of the $34.00 figure.

Conversely, if XAG/USD drops below $32.00, this would exert downward pressure on the precious metal. the first support would be the 100-day Simple Moving Average (SM) at 31.12, followed by the 50-day SMA and the 200-day SMA, each at 30.70 and 30.46.

XAG/USD Price Chart – Daily