Gold price failed to maintain early gains and bounced lower, settling on a mild decline, after the current resistance of $3090 held its ground, with the price gathering positive momentum that could help it breach that resistance, while also venting off overbought saturation in the Stochastic, with negative signals emerging from it.
It comes amid the dominance of the main upward trend as the price trades alongside the secondary short-term trend line, with positive support due to trading above the 50-candle SMA.
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Gold price climbs to near $3,090 in Monday’s early Asian session.
Escalating global trade tensions and economic uncertainties boost the safe-haven flows, supporting Gold price.
Traders brace for the US March ISM Manufacturing PMI data, which is due later on Tuesday.
The Gold price (XAU/USD) gains momentum to around $3,090 during the early Asian session on Monday. The precious metal maintains its uptrend near a record high amid fears of a global trade war triggered by US President Donald Trump’s latest tariffs.
Trump last week announced a 25% tariff on imported cars and light trucks set to take effect on April 3. This measure comes on top of a flat 25% tariff on steel and aluminum and Trump’s impending reciprocal tariff announcement on Wednesday. The ongoing fears related to trade wars and global economic uncertainty boost the yellow metal, a traditional safe-haven asset.
Data released by the Bureau of Economic Analysis on Friday showed that the US core Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index rose 0.4% MoM in February, compared to 0.3% in January. This figure came in hotter than the expectation of 0.3%. On an annual basis, the core PCE jumped 2.8% in February versus 2.7% prior (revised from 2.6%).
The report suggested sticky inflation in the US economy. Nonetheless, Trump’s aggressive trade policy raises concerns that the economy may fall into stagflation or even recession. This, in turn, undermines the Greenback and lifts the USD-denominated commodity price.
Traders will keep an eye on the US ISM Manufacturing Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) for March, which is due later on Tuesday. If the report shows a stronger-than-expected outcome, this could underpin the US Dollar (USD) and cap the upside for the Gold price.
Gold FAQs
Gold has played a key role in human’s history as it has been widely used as a store of value and medium of exchange. Currently, apart from its shine and usage for jewelry, the precious metal is widely seen as a safe-haven asset, meaning that it is considered a good investment during turbulent times. Gold is also widely seen as a hedge against inflation and against depreciating currencies as it doesn’t rely on any specific issuer or government.
Central banks are the biggest Gold holders. In their aim to support their currencies in turbulent times, central banks tend to diversify their reserves and buy Gold to improve the perceived strength of the economy and the currency. High Gold reserves can be a source of trust for a country’s solvency. Central banks added 1,136 tonnes of Gold worth around $70 billion to their reserves in 2022, according to data from the World Gold Council. This is the highest yearly purchase since records began. Central banks from emerging economies such as China, India and Turkey are quickly increasing their Gold reserves.
Gold has an inverse correlation with the US Dollar and US Treasuries, which are both major reserve and safe-haven assets. When the Dollar depreciates, Gold tends to rise, enabling investors and central banks to diversify their assets in turbulent times. Gold is also inversely correlated with risk assets. A rally in the stock market tends to weaken Gold price, while sell-offs in riskier markets tend to favor the precious metal.
The price can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can quickly make Gold price escalate due to its safe-haven status. As a yield-less asset, Gold tends to rise with lower interest rates, while higher cost of money usually weighs down on the yellow metal. Still, most moves depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAU/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Gold controlled, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to push Gold prices up.
Silver slips after strong rally as traders reduce exposure ahead of key US macroeconomic releases next week.
A close below $34.23 opens door to deeper pullback, with $33.51 and $33.00 as key downside targets.
Bulls need to hold above $34.25 to retest YTD high at $34.58 and make a run toward $35.00.
Silver price hits a five-month high but retreats toward the $34 figure late on Friday, as traders brace for the weekend, eyeing a busy economic schedule in the United States (US). At the time of writing, the XAG/USD pair trades at $34.03, down by over 1%.
XAG/USD Price Forecast: Technical outlook
Silver hit $34.58 earlier, before retreating as traders seem to book profits, taking risks off the table. As the grey metal falls, it has cleared the first support seen at $34.23, March 18 peak. If sellers achieve a daily close below the latter, XAG/USD could extend its losses beneath $34.00.
In that outcome, the first support would be the March 26 daily low of $33.51. Once surpassed the next stop would be $33.00. On the other hand, if Silver remains above $34.25, bulls could be poised to claim the year-to-date (YTD) high of $34.58, ahead of testing $35.00
XAG/USD Price Chart – Daily
Silver FAQs
Silver is a precious metal highly traded among investors. It has been historically used as a store of value and a medium of exchange. Although less popular than Gold, traders may turn to Silver to diversify their investment portfolio, for its intrinsic value or as a potential hedge during high-inflation periods. Investors can buy physical Silver, in coins or in bars, or trade it through vehicles such as Exchange Traded Funds, which track its price on international markets.
Silver prices can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can make Silver price escalate due to its safe-haven status, although to a lesser extent than Gold’s. As a yieldless asset, Silver tends to rise with lower interest rates. Its moves also depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAG/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Silver at bay, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to propel prices up. Other factors such as investment demand, mining supply – Silver is much more abundant than Gold – and recycling rates can also affect prices.
Silver is widely used in industry, particularly in sectors such as electronics or solar energy, as it has one of the highest electric conductivity of all metals – more than Copper and Gold. A surge in demand can increase prices, while a decline tends to lower them. Dynamics in the US, Chinese and Indian economies can also contribute to price swings: for the US and particularly China, their big industrial sectors use Silver in various processes; in India, consumers’ demand for the precious metal for jewellery also plays a key role in setting prices.
Silver prices tend to follow Gold’s moves. When Gold prices rise, Silver typically follows suit, as their status as safe-haven assets is similar. The Gold/Silver ratio, which shows the number of ounces of Silver needed to equal the value of one ounce of Gold, may help to determine the relative valuation between both metals. Some investors may consider a high ratio as an indicator that Silver is undervalued, or Gold is overvalued. On the contrary, a low ratio might suggest that Gold is undervalued relative to Silver.
Brent crude oil price kept rising in latest intraday trading, breaching the pivotal resistance of $73.60, while buoyed by trading above the 50-candle SMA, amid the dominance of the upward correctional trend in the short term, as the price moves alongside primary and secondary trend line, indicating the strength and dominance of this trend.
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Also, the second leg down in the correction generated a bullish falling wedge pattern. That might help account for the sharp runup seen today. Notice that earlier in today’s trading session the trendline and 50-Day MA were first tested as support before buyers took back control, leading to the rally.
The next decision point looks to be around the 20-Day MA, now at $4.12. That initial price target may yet be hit before the end of the day since natural gas continues to trade near the highs of the day, at the time of this writing. Other initial upside targets include the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement and a prior interim swing high at $4.26.
Improving Bullish Signs
Given the bullish reaction following the completion of a 61.8% retracement it is possible that the corrective decline is complete. Certainly, it might be. But further evidence of strength will be needed. A daily close above the 20-Day MA would be one sign of strengthening that could lead to higher prices. But the recent interim swing high at $4.26 makes up the price structure of the recent decline as it is a lower swing high. Reclaiming that high would provide another bullish reversal signal. But keep in mind that rallies will be heading up into a consolidation zone if recent highs are approached. This could lead to further consolidation.
Rallying Into Consolidation Zone
Finally, let’s consider the large rising trend starting from the 2024 low. It shows on the chart as a large parallel trend channel. Within the larger trend channel there are shorter trends defined by a trendline along support. Since the recent rising trendline was broken to the downside, there is the possibility that the next lower trend support line is eventually tested as it was not during the recent bearish correction. Keep that in mind if natural does eventually turn back down after reaching higher price levels.
For a look at all of today’s economic events, check out our economic calendar.
Platinum price managed to surpass the barrier of $983.00 yesterday and reactivate the upward momentum, as the 55 SMA forms an additional support near $966.00, while the Stochastic sends out positive signals by exiting oversold levels.
The price will likely head towards $1000.00, thus heading additional targets such as $1017 and $1026 respectively.
Expected trading range today is between $975 and $1000.
Silver price jumps to near $34.60 as its safe-haven demand improves amid growing concerns over global trade.
Investors expect that Trump’s tariffs will impact economic growth and prompt inflation across the globe.
The US core PCE inflation data rose at a faster-than-expected pace of 2.8% in February.
Silver price (XAG) posts a fresh five-month high near $34.60 in North American trading hours on Friday. The white metal strengthens as investors turn cautious ahead of April 2, when United States (US) President Donald Trump is scheduled to unveil reciprocal tariffs.
Market participants expect that Trump’s tariffs will result in an economic slowdown and boost inflationary pressures in the near term. Such a scenario increases the appeal of safe-haven assets, such as Silver.
However, the US Dollar (USD) slumps as Trump’s tariffs will also weigh on the US economic outlook. Investors expect the impact the tariffs will have on US imports, which would be forced to pass them on to consumers. The US Dollar Index (DXY), which tracks the Greenback’s value against six major currencies, slides to near 104.00.
Meanwhile, hotter-than-expected US core PCE Inflation – which excludes volatile food and energy items – fails to provide support to the US Dollar. The underlying inflation data rose at a faster pace of 2.8% year-on-year compared to estimates and the prior release of 2.7%. Month-on-month core PCE inflation grew by 0.4%, faster than expectations and the former reading of 0.3%.
Accelerating inflationary pressures force the Federal Reserve (Fed) to maintain a restrictive monetary policy stance for a longer period. Higher interest rates by the Fed bode poorly for non-yielding assets, such as Silver.
Silver technical analysis
Silver price advances toward the flat border of the Ascending Triangle chart pattern formation on the daily timeframe near the October 22 high of $34.87. The upward-sloping border of the above-mentioned chart pattern is placed from the August 8 low of $26.45. Technically, the Ascending Triangle pattern indicates indecisiveness among market participants.
The 20-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) near $33.30 continues to provide support to the Silver price.
The 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) rebounds above 60.00, suggesting a resurgence in bullish momentum.
Looking down, the March 6 high of $32.77 will act as key support for the Silver price. While, the October 22 high of $34.87 will be the major barrier.
Silver daily chart
Silver FAQs
Silver is a precious metal highly traded among investors. It has been historically used as a store of value and a medium of exchange. Although less popular than Gold, traders may turn to Silver to diversify their investment portfolio, for its intrinsic value or as a potential hedge during high-inflation periods. Investors can buy physical Silver, in coins or in bars, or trade it through vehicles such as Exchange Traded Funds, which track its price on international markets.
Silver prices can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can make Silver price escalate due to its safe-haven status, although to a lesser extent than Gold’s. As a yieldless asset, Silver tends to rise with lower interest rates. Its moves also depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAG/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Silver at bay, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to propel prices up. Other factors such as investment demand, mining supply – Silver is much more abundant than Gold – and recycling rates can also affect prices.
Silver is widely used in industry, particularly in sectors such as electronics or solar energy, as it has one of the highest electric conductivity of all metals – more than Copper and Gold. A surge in demand can increase prices, while a decline tends to lower them. Dynamics in the US, Chinese and Indian economies can also contribute to price swings: for the US and particularly China, their big industrial sectors use Silver in various processes; in India, consumers’ demand for the precious metal for jewellery also plays a key role in setting prices.
Silver prices tend to follow Gold’s moves. When Gold prices rise, Silver typically follows suit, as their status as safe-haven assets is similar. The Gold/Silver ratio, which shows the number of ounces of Silver needed to equal the value of one ounce of Gold, may help to determine the relative valuation between both metals. Some investors may consider a high ratio as an indicator that Silver is undervalued, or Gold is overvalued. On the contrary, a low ratio might suggest that Gold is undervalued relative to Silver.
Brent crude oil price edged lower in the intraday levels, amid the dominance of the upward correctional trend in the short term as the price trades alongside primary and secondary trend line, while trying to vent off overbought saturation in the Stochastic, with negative signals emerging from it, while gathering positive momentum to rise anew.
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Natural gas price held above the support of $3.750 and started forming upward waves that sent the price to $3.940, with positive signals from major indicators, paving the way towards $4.085 initially, with a breach sending the price to $4.180 and $4.260.
Expected trading range today is between $3.850 and $4.085.
Today’s price forecast: Bullish as the support holds
Copper price wrapped up its upward surge temporarily after touching $5.3300, while collecting profits and settling near the previous psychological barrier of $5.000.
As the Stochastic settles below 50, the price will likely extend losses and target $4.9500, however, a renewal of the upward rush would require closing above $4.1800, sending the price to the next target at $5.4100.
Expected trading range today is between $4.9500 and $5.1300.
