Polygon’s currency price (MATICUSDT) inched lower in the intraday levels, confirming the breach of the pivotal support of $0.286, amid the dominance of the main downward trend in the medium term, while trading alongside the secondary short-term trend line, with negative pressure from trading below the 50-day SMA, coupled with negative signals from the RSI.
Therefore we expect the price to decline and target the support of $0.149, provided it settles firmly below the resistance of $0.286.
A new trend high of $4.55 was reached on Tuesday and the day ended with natural gas in a relatively weak position in the lower half of the day’s trading range. Moreover, the closing price was the second highest level for the bull trend, but it was not the highest.
That is not a convincing response to a new bull breakout as it shows short-term weakness, rather than improving strength. Then, on Wednesday a new closing daily high was established at $4.52. And Wednesday’s high of $4.52 completed another test of resistance around a top trend channel line that marked a resistance zone for the three most recent rallies.
Top Channel Line Remains Resistance
Previous attempts to break out above the channel line have failed. This would seem to put greater weight on the possibility of a bearish retracement rather than a bullish continuation. Nonetheless, the behavior of natural gas around key near-term price levels mentioned above will provide clues.
Although demand remains relatively strong given the two days of consolidation that further tested resistance around the channel line, a sustained upside breakout and a continuation of the bull trend may have greater success following a pullback first, or a longer rest in consolidation.
Bullish Weekly Price Action
On the weekly time frame natural gas showed strength this week. This week’s rally began following an initial bearish move to test support at a confluence zone that is marked by several indicators. Of significance is the 50-Day MA, now at $3.77. That line was joined by the 20-Day MA and a 50% retracement level. It was the first real test of support at the 50-Day line since it was reclaimed on February 13.
Copper price confirmed its surrender to the previously suggested positivity by settling within the bullish channel frequently and surpassing 4.6800$ barrier now, to notice the beginning of recording the positive targets by touching 4.7800$ now.
The continuous positive momentum provided by the major indicators will increase the efficiency of the bullish track, to expect attacking 4.8100$ recorded high soon, while surpassing it will start targeting new positive stations by rallying towards 4.9100$ and face the bullish channel’s resistance line.
The expected trading range for today is between 4.6800$ and 4.9100$
Spot Gold consolidated in the $2,910 region for most of this Thursday, attracting buyers on an intraday dip to $2,891.27. Financial markets kept swinging at the pace of sentiment, with prevalent demand for safety maintaining the bright metal afloat.
Concerns revolve around United States (US) government tariff plans. President Donald Trump kick-started his mandate by announcing massive levies on most trading partners, rolling 25% taxes on Canadian and Mexican imports on Tuesday, only to delay such levies on automakers for one month on Wednesday.
Additionally, Trump said on Thursday, “After speaking with President Claudia Sheinbaum of Mexico, I have agreed that Mexico will not be required to pay Tariffs on anything that falls under the USMCA Agreement. This Agreement is until April 2nd. I did this as an accommodation and out of respect for President Sheinbaum. “
The back and forth does not overshadow the fact that the trade war is in full fashion, and hence, concerns about the economic performance of the world’s largest economy. Speculative interest considers that Trump’s plans pose a downward risk to growth and an upward risk to inflation, resulting in a weakening Greenback.
Meanwhile, US employment-related data came in mixed. On the one hand, weekly unemployment claims fell in the last week of February, while Q4 Unit Labor Costs declined to 2.2% from 3% in the previous quarter. On the other hand, US-based employers last month announced plans to slash 172,017 jobs, a 103% increase from January and the highest February total since 2009, according to the Challenger Job Cuts report.
The US will release the February Nonfarm Payrolls report on Friday. The country is expected to have added 160K new jobs in the month, while the Unemployment Rate is foreseen steady at 4%.
XAU/USD short-term technical outlook
The daily chart for the XAU/USD pair shows is little changed for a second consecutive day, yet at the same time, it posted a lower high and a lower low, which skews the risk to the downside. However, the same chart shows that intraday dips below a bullish 20 Simple Moving Average (SMA) quickly attract buyers. Technical indicators, in the meantime, remain within positive levels, although with uneven strength.
The near-term picture shows buyers battling to retain control. The XAU/USD pair is currently developing above all its moving averages, although a flat 100 SMA stands at $2,911.50. The 20 SMA, in the meantime, advances below the longer one. Finally, technical indicators diverge around their midlines, with the Momentum indicator aiming lower yet the Relative Strength Index (RSI) advancing. The bearish potential remains limited, with dips likely to keep attracting buyers.
This does tend to be a very volatile time, but because of this, I want to take my time and see a nice surge lower to get involved in a short position. As far as buying is concerned, if it wasn’t for the seasonality, that would obviously be the trade here. But the last thing I want to do is be the last buyer of natural gas for the season.
The risk to reward ratio just is not that appealing to me right now. So as much as it pains me to not participate in what’s been such a strong three days, the reality is the move I’m looking for is a lot bigger than this. So, we’ll have to wait and see, but right now we’re still just flirting with that top and we’ll have to see if we can break through it. If we do, it could open up a move to the $5 level, which, quite frankly, I hope it does, because I can short it from a higher level at that point, as soon as we start to price in the warmer weather.
For a look at all of today’s economic events, check out our economic calendar.
Polygon’s currency price (MATICUSDT) inched lower in the intraday levels, confirming the breach of the pivotal support of $0.286, amid the dominance of the main downward trend in the medium term, while trading alongside the secondary short-term trend line, with negative pressure from trading below the 50-day SMA, coupled with negative signals from the RSI.
Therefore we expect the price to decline and target the support of $0.149, provided it settles firmly below the resistance of $0.286.
Gold price sits at one-week highs near $2,930 early Thursday, awaits US data and Trump’s tariff news.
The US Dollar stays vulnerable to Euro strength and tariff war-led economic concerns.
Gold price defends 21-day SMA at $2,906 as further upside appears on the cards.
Gold price is sitting at one-week highs near $2,930 early Thursday, consolidating a three-day recovery while aiming for a retest of lifetime highs of $2,956 ahead of mid-tier US economic data releases.
Gold price remains exposed to upside risks, US NFP eyed
Gold price has entered a brief phase of upside consolidation as buyers take a breather before the next leg higher. The buying interest around the bright metal remains unabated amid sustained US Dollar (USD) weakness as increased odds of further interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve (Fed) due to US economic slowdown concerns.
US President Donald Trump’s tariff war is expected to increase inflation, rekindling stagflation fears.
Even though Trump announced a one-month pause on the auto tariffs while considering agricultural exemptions on Canada and Mexico, the USD sellers refuse to give up amid a recent series of dismal US economic data and a relentless surge in the EUR/USD pair.
Data released by the ADP Research showed on Wednesday that the US private sector added 77K jobs in February after creating 186K jobs in January. The data missed the expectations of 140K by a wide margin. However, the Institute for Supply Management (ISM) Services PMI rose to 53.5 in February, exceeding forecasts for 52.6. The ISM Services Employment Index jumped to 53.9 in February from 52.3 in January.
The Euro (EUR) jumped to a four-month high against the USD, tracking the rally in the German bund yields after German political parties agreed on a massive spending plan to support the Eurozone’s biggest economy. Surging German bund yields drove global yields higher, including the US Treasury bond yields, capping the Gold price recovery.
Gold traders now eagerly await Friday’s Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) data to assess the Fed’s easing trajectory amid growing trade tensions between the US and its trading partners.
In the meantime, the mid-tier US Jobless Claims data and further developments on the tariffs front by the Trump administration will be closely followed for any impact on the USD performance and the Gold price action.
The upcoming European Central Bank (ECB) policy decision could curb the EUR/USD rally, fuelling a fresh US Dollar rebound. In such a scenario, Gold price could see a corrective move lower, which could also be seen as a profit-taking decline ahead of the all-important US payrolls data on Friday.
Gold price technical analysis: Daily chart
The short-term technical outlook for Gold price remains more or less the same as long as it defends the 21-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) of $2,906.
The uptrend could regain traction only on acceptance above the $2,930 static resistance on a daily candlestick closing basis.
The Relative Strength Index (RSI) has turned slightly lower but holds well above the 50 level, suggesting that the bullish potential remains in place.
If the February 26 high of $2,930 is taken out sustainably, the next topside barriers are at an all-time high of $2,956 and the $2,970 round level.
If sellers fight back control, immediate support is seen at the 21-day SMA at $2,906, below which the $2,850 psychological barrier will be challenged.
The $2,835 demand area will then come into play.
(This story was corrected on March 6 at 07:30 GMT to say that “Gold price defends 21-day SMA at $2,906, not $2,903.7 )
Gold FAQs
Gold has played a key role in human’s history as it has been widely used as a store of value and medium of exchange. Currently, apart from its shine and usage for jewelry, the precious metal is widely seen as a safe-haven asset, meaning that it is considered a good investment during turbulent times. Gold is also widely seen as a hedge against inflation and against depreciating currencies as it doesn’t rely on any specific issuer or government.
Central banks are the biggest Gold holders. In their aim to support their currencies in turbulent times, central banks tend to diversify their reserves and buy Gold to improve the perceived strength of the economy and the currency. High Gold reserves can be a source of trust for a country’s solvency. Central banks added 1,136 tonnes of Gold worth around $70 billion to their reserves in 2022, according to data from the World Gold Council. This is the highest yearly purchase since records began. Central banks from emerging economies such as China, India and Turkey are quickly increasing their Gold reserves.
Gold has an inverse correlation with the US Dollar and US Treasuries, which are both major reserve and safe-haven assets. When the Dollar depreciates, Gold tends to rise, enabling investors and central banks to diversify their assets in turbulent times. Gold is also inversely correlated with risk assets. A rally in the stock market tends to weaken Gold price, while sell-offs in riskier markets tend to favor the precious metal.
The price can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can quickly make Gold price escalate due to its safe-haven status. As a yield-less asset, Gold tends to rise with lower interest rates, while higher cost of money usually weighs down on the yellow metal. Still, most moves depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAU/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Gold controlled, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to push Gold prices up.
Copper price confirmed its surrender to the previously suggested positivity by settling within the bullish channel frequently and surpassing 4.6800$ barrier now, to notice the beginning of recording the positive targets by touching 4.7800$ now.
The continuous positive momentum provided by the major indicators will increase the efficiency of the bullish track, to expect attacking 4.8100$ recorded high soon, while surpassing it will start targeting new positive stations by rallying towards 4.9100$ and face the bullish channel’s resistance line.
The expected trading range for today is between 4.6800$ and 4.9100$
Silver drifts lower on Thursday and snaps a three-day winning streak to over a one-week high.
The technical setup favors bulls and supports prospects for the emergence of some dip-buying.
A convincing break and acceptance below the 100-day EMA would negate the positive outlook.
Silver (XAG/USD) attracts some sellers during the Asian session on Thursday and erodes a part of its weekly gains registered over the past three days. The white metal currently trades above mid-$32.00s, down 0.35% for the day, though the near-term bias seems tilted in favor of bullish traders and supports prospects for a further appreciating move.
From a technical perspective, the XAG/USD showed some resilience below the 100-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) last Friday. Moreover, oscillators on the daily chart have again started gaining positive traction on the daily chart and validate the near-term constructive outlook for the commodity. Hence, a subsequent strength towards the $33.00 mark, en route to the February monthly swing high, around the $33.40 area, looks like a distinct possibility.
The next relevant hurdle is pegged near the $33.60-$33.70 region, above which the XAG/USD could aim to reclaim the $34.00 round figure and climb further towards the $34.50-$34.55 zone. The momentum could extend further towards the highest level since October 2012, closer to the $35.00 psychological mark touched in October 2024.
On the flip side, the $32.30-$32.25 horizontal resistance breakpoint now seems to protect the immediate downside ahead of the $32.00 mark. This is followed by the $31.80 support, below which the XAG/USD could fall to the $31.25-$31.20 region before dropping to the 100-day EMA, currently pegged near the $31.10-$31.00 area. Some follow-through selling below last week’s swing low, around the $30.80 area, would shift the bias in favor of bearish traders.
Silver daily chart
Silver FAQs
Silver is a precious metal highly traded among investors. It has been historically used as a store of value and a medium of exchange. Although less popular than Gold, traders may turn to Silver to diversify their investment portfolio, for its intrinsic value or as a potential hedge during high-inflation periods. Investors can buy physical Silver, in coins or in bars, or trade it through vehicles such as Exchange Traded Funds, which track its price on international markets.
Silver prices can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can make Silver price escalate due to its safe-haven status, although to a lesser extent than Gold’s. As a yieldless asset, Silver tends to rise with lower interest rates. Its moves also depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAG/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Silver at bay, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to propel prices up. Other factors such as investment demand, mining supply – Silver is much more abundant than Gold – and recycling rates can also affect prices.
Silver is widely used in industry, particularly in sectors such as electronics or solar energy, as it has one of the highest electric conductivity of all metals – more than Copper and Gold. A surge in demand can increase prices, while a decline tends to lower them. Dynamics in the US, Chinese and Indian economies can also contribute to price swings: for the US and particularly China, their big industrial sectors use Silver in various processes; in India, consumers’ demand for the precious metal for jewellery also plays a key role in setting prices.
Silver prices tend to follow Gold’s moves. When Gold prices rise, Silver typically follows suit, as their status as safe-haven assets is similar. The Gold/Silver ratio, which shows the number of ounces of Silver needed to equal the value of one ounce of Gold, may help to determine the relative valuation between both metals. Some investors may consider a high ratio as an indicator that Silver is undervalued, or Gold is overvalued. On the contrary, a low ratio might suggest that Gold is undervalued relative to Silver.
The NZDUSD price provided clear positive trades yesterday, as it breached 0.5655$ level to reach the key resistance 0.5738$ and settle around it, to hint the attempt to return to the correctional bullish track, but we notice that the RSI lost its positive momentum and might push the price to decline again.
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