Natural gas price formed temporary correctional bullish wave yesterday to fluctuate above 50% Fibonacci correction level at 3.130$, attempting to cover some previous losses to settle near 3.200$.

Note that the MA55 continues to form additional barrier at 3.260$, along with stochastic consolidation within the oversold areas, these factors support the domination of the bearish bias for the near-term and medium-term period, to keep waiting to form new negative waves and target 2.970$ followed by 2.840$ levels.

The expected trading range for today is between 2.970$ and 3.200$

Trend forecast: Bearish

Crude oil price managed to break 73.90$ level and close the daily candlestick below it, reinforcing the expectations of continuing the correctional bearish trend in the upcoming sessions, opening the way to head towards 72.30$ that represents our next main target, noting that breaking this level will push the price to suffer additional losses that reach 70.30$ on the near-term basis.

Holding below 73.90$ is important to the continuation of the expected decline, as breaching it will lead the price to achieve intraday gains and head to test 75.53$ areas before any new attempt to decline.

The expected trading range for today is between 71.60$ support and 74.60$ resistance

Trend forecast: Bearish

XAU/USD Current price: $2,753.60

• The Federal Reserve will likely keep rates on hold in today’s monetary policy meeting.
• The United States will publish the preliminary estimate of the Q4 GDP on Thursday.
• XAU/USD could extend its slide in the near term amid prevalent US Dollar demand.

Gold is under modest selling pressure on Wednesday as caution rules ahead of the Federal Reserve’s (Fed) monetary policy announcement. The United States (US) central bank is widely anticipated to keep the benchmark interest rate unchanged after trimming 25 basis points (bps)  and settling it at 4.25%-4.5% in December.

Back then, officials adopted a more dovish stance amid uncertainty about President Donald Trump’s trade policies and their potential effects on economic development. Trump’s initial days at the office have indeed triggered loads of noise, with the focus on tariffs. Still, the US government has announced no new levies.

There is a good chance the Fed will repeat its December statement as officials would prefer to wait for a clearer picture before taking a more hawkish approach. In the meantime, and following the Fed’s decision, the US will publish the preliminary estimate of the Q4 Gross Domestic Product (GDP) on Thursday. The report is expected to show that the economy grew at a solid 2.6% pace on an annualized basis, slightly below the 3.1% posted in Q3.

Meanwhile, US government bond yields held steady. The 10-year Treasury note offers 4.55%, pretty much unchanged on a daily basis. US indexes, in the meantime, are modestly down after their overseas counterparts closed in the green.

XAU/USD short-term technical outlook

From a technical point of view, the daily chart for the XAU/USD shows an undergoing consolidative stage. The bright metal seesaws between gains and losses but remains above the $2,700 mark and not far below record highs. The same chart shows that the 20 Simple Moving Average (SMA) keeps heading north well below the current level, while it is above bullish 100 and 200 SMAs, limiting the bearish case. Finally, technical indicators ease within positive levels, far above their midlines and falling short of suggesting a sustained bearish extension.

In the near term, and according to the 4-hour chart, however, the risk skews to the downside. XAU/USD has spent the last couple of sessions battling a now bearish 20 SMA, developing just below it. The longer moving averages maintain their upward slopes below the current level, yet technical indicators are crossing their midlines into negative territory, favoring another leg south.

Support levels: 2,747.20 2,734.60 2,716.50

Resistance levels: 2,764.85 2,777.30 2,789.95

If 3.02 Fails, 2.67 Looks Possible

line of a large symmetrical triangle becomes a potential target, and further down is the 78.6% retracement at 2.67. Currently the 200-Day MA has converged with the retracement level and is identifying the same price. Nonetheless, the 200-Day MA marks a key potential support level for the larger bull trend.

Large Rising Parallel Trend Channel

A key point to consider is the presence of a large rising parallel trend channel on the chart. Notice that during the recent rally there was a failed attempt to break out above the top channel line before a high was established at 4.37. Given the subsequent bearish decline follow through the possibility of an eventual test of support at or near the lows of the channel are a possibility. Once there is a clear reversal from one side of the channel, there is the possibility of reaching the other side of the channel.

20-Week MA Tested as Support

Further to the above analysis, the weekly chart may provide an additional clue. Today’s low reached a seven-week low and there is also a monthly low from December at 2.98. The decline also tested support around 20-Week MA, which is at 3.11. The 20-week line has marked trend support on the weekly chart since it was reclaimed in October.

This seems to increase the chance that today’s low could hold as support and complete the correction. It also indicates that a decisive decline below the 20-Week MA will provide bearish confirmation and increase the chance for natural gas to eventually test lower prices before the correction is complete.

For a look at all of today’s economic events, check out our economic calendar.

Berkshire Hathaway’s stock price (BRK.B) fell in the intraday levels on profit-taking, while gathering positive momentum to rise anew, amid the dominance of the main upward trend in the medium term, with positive pressure due to trading above the 50-day SMA, while the stock managed to vent off overbought saturation in the RSI.

Therefore we expect the stock to return higher and target the pivotal resistance of $491.65, provided the support  of $455.30 holds on.

Trend forecast for today: Likely Bullish 

9.3% Bearish Correction

As of Monday’s low, crude was down by 9.3% from the recent swing high of 80.76. Support was seen around a prior key resistance level at 73.27. The decline completed a 50% retracement at 73.93 on the way down. Confirmation of support was also indicated by an internal uptrend line that marked a similar price zone as the November 7 minor swing high and top of a price range. In other words, crude has reached a support zone that could lead to a bullish reversal. Continue to watch price behavior around the 73.23 low.

Inside Day Bull Breakout Potential

If there is a rally above todays inside day high of 75.15 and considering the 200-Day line at 75.20, crude could complete a bullish reversal that could lead to an advance. There are several potential barriers that would then need to be considered on the way up as resistance could be seen. The 20-Day MA is at 75.92 and it is a little shy of a trendline that could present resistance. Tuesday’s high at 76.03 could also be considered. Together, these price levels present a potential resistance zone from 75.92 to 76.20 (Friday’s high).

Downside Risk Remains

On the downside, a drop below 73.23 provides a bearish continuation signal and increases the chance that the next lower potential support area is reached. The lower price support zone looks to be around 72.32 to 72.15. That range includes the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level and the 50-Day MA, respectively. The 50-Day line is key as it was recently reclaimed on December 24, a couple day’s before a sharp rally began. This decline would be the first test of support at the 50-Day line since then. A daily close below it would be bearish and could indicate further selling pressure.

For a look at all of today’s economic events, check out our economic calendar.

The GBPUSD price provides positive trades to move away from 1.2415$ level gradually, which supports the continuation of the expected bullish trend for today, which targets 1.2609$ as a next main station, noting that the intraday bullish channel organizes the correctional bullish wave, which will remain valid unless breaking 1.2415$ and holding below it.

The expected trading range for today is between 1.2375$ support and 1.2525$ resistance

Trend forecast: Bullish

Platinum price repeated the negative closings below 955.00$ barrier, hinting its surrender to the continuous domination of the correctional bearish bias by consolidating near 940.00$.

Also, stochastic continuous negative momentum assists to provide more negative trades until reaching the additional support at 920.00$, while breaching the barrier and holding above it will push the price back to the bullish track to expect achieving many gains by rallying towards 972.00$ followed by reaching 983.00$.

The expected trading range for today is between 920.00$ and 955.00$

Trend forecast: Bearish

• Silver scales higher for the second straight day and climbs back closer to the weekly top.
• The technical setup favors bulls and supports prospects for a further appreciating move.
• Any subsequent move up might continue to face stiff resistance near the 100-day SMA.

Silver (XAG/USD) attracts buying for the second straight day on Wednesday and trades near the top end of its weekly range, around mid-$30.00s during the first half of the European session, up over 0.40% for the day. 

Meanwhile, technical indicators on the daily chart have again started gaining positive traction and support prospects for further appreciating move. That said, any subsequent move up might continue to confront stiff resistance near the $31.00 mark, or the 100-day Simple Moving Average (SMA). The said barrier should act as a key pivotal point for the XAG/USD, which if cleared decisively might trigger a short-covering rally. 

The subsequent move up could extend towards the next relevant hurdle near the $31.45-$31.50 area en route to the $32.00 mark and the December monthly swing high, around the $32.30 region. Some follow-through buying will suggest that the corrective decline from a multi-year peak touched in October 2024 has run its course and pave the way for additional gains.

On the flip side, the 200-day SMA, currently pegged just ahead of the $30.00 psychological mark, should act as an immediate strong support. A convincing break below could make the XAG/USD vulnerable to retesting the weekly swing low, around the $29.70 region touched on Monday. The downward trajectory could extend further towards the $29.10-$29.00 area en route to 
the $28.75-$28.70 region, or a multi-month low touched in December.

Silver daily chart

Bitcoin price (BTCUSD) trades positively to attempt to breach 102900.00$ level, reinforcing the expectations of continuing the bullish trend for the rest of the day, reminding you that our main waited target reaches 108350.45$.

Stochastic overlaps positively to support the expectations to rise in the upcoming sessions, reminding you that the continuation of the bullish wave depends on the price stability above 100150.00$.

The expected trading range for today is between 100000.00$ support and 106000.00$ resistance.

Trend forecast: Bullish