• Gold price holds the previous rebound below $2,770 on Fed day.   
• The US Dollar trades subdued amid risk recovery, boosting Gold price.
• The daily technical setup for gold prices remains bullish, but the Fed could spoil its party.

Gold price clings to recovery gains near $2,770 in Wednesday’s Asian trading. Gold buyers trade cautiously, heading into the critical Federal Reserve (Fed) policy announcement that is due later this Wednesday.

Gold price looks to Fed verdict for the next trading impetus

Markets are in a wait-and-see mode, anticipating the Fed will pause the interest rate cut and provide hints on the following policy move. Markets are pricing in almost 50 basis points (bps) of cuts this year, or two 25 bp reductions starting in June, according to LSEG data.

However, Fed Chairman Jerome Powell’s press conference will be closely scrutinized for the timing and the scope of further rate reductions under US President Donald Trump’s second term. Trump’s immigration and trade policies are perceived as inflationary, as they  could prompt the Fed to keep higher rates for longer, boding ill for the non-interest-bearing Gold price.

In case, Powell and his colleagues express their confidence in the path of disinflation and acknowledge weakening labor market conditions, markets could read that as a dovish hold, ramping up bets for future rate cuts, lifting Gold price to new record highs.

In the meantime, Gold price will continue to draw support from stabilizing risk sentiment, broadly subdued US Dollar and holiday-thinned conditions. China, Singapore, and Hong Kong markets also closed due to the Lunar New Year holiday break.

Markets recover from China’s low-cost artificial intelligence (AI) model – DeepSeek-led global AI sell-off as the focus now also remains on the earnings results from the US tech titans – Microsoft, Meta and Tesla due in the late American session on Wednesday.

If earnings disappoint and budget forecasts leave investors unconvinced, a renewed global tech sell-off could be in the offing, with markets resorting to ‘sell-everything’ mode. In such a case, Gold price could reverse any reaction to the Fed policy announcements or extend the downside on a potential hawkish hold.

Gold price technical analysis: Daily chart

The technical setup on the daily time frame remains in favor of Gold price. Therefore, the bright metal will likely be a ‘buy-the-dips’ trade.

The 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) holds comfortably above the midline, currently near 65, keeping Gold buyers hopeful.

Adding credence to the bullish potential, the 50-day SMA closed above the 100-day SMA last Thursday, confirming a Bull Cross.

Gold price needs a daily candlestick closing above the symmetrical triangle target of $2,785 or record high of $2,790 to initiate a fresh uptrend.

The next relevant upside targets are $2,800 and the $2,850 psychological barrier.

On the downside, the immediate support will be seen at the previous day’s low of $2,735.

Sellers will then aim for the $2,700 round level, where the 21-day SMA coincides. The last line of defense for buyers is the $2,680 static support.  

No news for the GBPJPY pair despite the frequent stability above 191.80 support line, to notice its surrender to the stability of 194.30 resistance line in addition to stochastic negative momentum signals.

These factors confirm the price affection by the domination of the sideways bias, to provide mixed trades until breaching the resistance to manage to achieve additional gains by rallying towards 194.80 and 195.55 levels.

The expected trading range for today is between 192.80 and 194.30

Trend forecast: Bullish

Ethereum price (ETHUSD) bounced bearishly after testing 3222.00$ level in the previous sessions, to reach the key support 3017.30$, noticing that the price attempts to recover and build new bullish wave, motivated by stochastic current positivity.

Until now, our neutrality still valid until the price confirms surpassing one of the above mentioned levels, noting that breaking the mentioned support will put the price under additional negative pressure that targets 2765.00$ areas on the near-term basis, while breaching the resistance will motivate the price to build new bullish wave that its first main target located at 3425.50$.

The expected trading range for today is between 2970.00$ support and 3260.00$ resistance.

Trend forecast: Neutral

• Silver shows resilience, finding support at the 200-day SMA of $30.08 amid the downtrend.
• To gain momentum, silver must surpass 50-day SMA at $30.28, targeting 100-day SMA at $30.99.
• Breaking above these SMAs could position silver to retest its December 2024 high of $32.32.

Silver prices advanced by 0.81% late in the North American session on Tuesday, as market participants seeking security bought precious metals like XAU and XAG, which are posting solid gains. XAG/USD trades at $30.42 a troy ounce at the time of writing.

XAG/USD Price Forecast: Technical outlook

The daily chart suggests Silver is consolidated and found support at the 200-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) at $30.08. Although XAG/USD has carved successive series of lower highs and lower lows, hinting at a short-term downtrend, bears must clear the December 19 swing low of $28.74 to shift the bias downwards.

For a bullish continuation, XAG buyers must clear dynamic resistance at $30.28, where the 50-day SMA resides, followed by a challenge of the 100-day SMA at $30.99. Once those levels are taken out, bulls could challenge December’s 2024 peak at $32.32.

XAG/USD Price Chart – Daily

Snap’s stock price returned lower in the intraday levels, while hurt by piercing the upward correctional trend line in the short term, with negative pressure due to trading below the 50-day SMA, while readying to breach the support of $10.49, with negative signals from the RSI despite reaching oversold levels. 

Therefore we expect more losses for the stock, provided the aforementioned support of $10.49 was breached, thus targeting the pivotal support of $8.24.

Trend forecast for today: Bearish 

Bearish Behavior

Today’s candlestick pattern is a wide range red pattern with an open near the top of the range and a likely close near the lows. This shows aggressive selling that further confirms weakness from the 50-Day MA breakdown. Notice that similar candle patterns occurred on the day of the trend high at 4.37, and at the second swing high that followed. Consider future similar indications of selling pressure that could occur in natural gas or other instruments.

Prior Swing Low at Risk

There is a potential support area at 3.39, which was a prior swing high that helped construct a large symmetrical triangle bottom pattern. But given the downside momentum seen today, it could easily be broken. A little lower is a price range from 3.30 to 3.27, with the lower level possibly having greater significance as it is the 78.6% retracement level.

Sharp Drop Points to Lower Prices

Nonetheless, given the sharp drop being witnessed today, lower prices remain targets. The bigger pattern unfolding is a pullback following the long-term breakout of a large symmetrical triangle formation. A decisive breakout triggered on November 21, which eventually led to the recent 4.37 swing high. There was an initial pullback to test the breakout area as support and it was successful.

However, the current retracement could provide a similar function but on a larger scale. That would be a test of the 3.02 price zone or thereabouts. Regardless of whether it is reached, it does provide evidence for a deeper correction than what has been seen so far post triangle breakout. Below the 3.27 area is another prior swing high and now potential support from June of last year at 3.16.

Lowest Closing Price in 15 Days

Moreover, Tuesday will likely end with natural gas closing at its lowest price in 15 days and a prior swing low is only a little lower at 3.33. Therefore, a drop below that price level further reverses the bull trend that began from the August swing low at 1.88.

For a look at all of today’s economic events, check out our economic calendar.

XAU/USD Current price: $2,758.02

• Risk aversion dominated the first half of Tuesday, although sentiment improved.
• The Federal Reserve will announce its monetary policy decision on Wednesday.
• XAU/USD trades with a positive tone in the near term, with room to extend gains.

Gold trades marginally higher on Tuesday, still down for the week. XAU/USD recovered from an intraday low of $2,734.68 and approaches the $2,600 mark in the mid-American session.  Financial markets were risk-averse throughout the first half of Tuesday amid fresh tariff-related concerns following comments from United States (US) President Donald Trump. Trump said he does not want gradual tariffs, as proposed by his Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent on Monday. Bessent suggested on Monday that the country could impose gradual levies of 2.5%, which could be increased periodically.

The dismal mood somehow eased ahead of Wall Street’s opening, with the three major indexes now trading in positive territory. Gains however, are modest as investors gear up for the Federal Reserve (Fed) monetary policy announcement. The Fed is undergoing a two-day meeting, which will conclude on Wednesday. Officials will announce their decision afterwards, with officials widely anticipated to keep interest rates on hold.  Whereas the accompanying statement and Chairman Jerome Powell’s speech are dovish or hawkish and will decide the market’s direction.

XAU/USD short-term technical outlook

From a technical point of view, the daily chart for XAU/USD suggests the corrective decline is over. Gold may extend its recovery, as it trades above all its moving averages, with a bullish 20 Simple Moving Average (SMA) gaining upward traction above also bullish 100 and 200 SMAs. Technical indicators, in the meantime, slowly gain upward traction within positive levels and after correcting overbought conditions.

In the near term, and according to the 4-hour chart, the picture is neutral-to-bullish. Technical indicators aim north, although the Momentum indicator remains below its 100 line. At the same time, XAU/USD is barely surpassing a flat 20 SMA, while the longer moving averages maintain their bullish slopes well below the current level.

Support levels: 2,747.20 2,734.60 2,716.50

Resistance levels: 2,764.85 2,777.30 2,789.95

The GBPCAD price succeeded to confirm the continuation of the positivity by consolidating within the bullish channel, to notice breaching 1.7810$ barrier and achieving many gains by rallying towards 1.7990.

The current negative rebound towards 1.7920 hints the attempt to gather the required additional positive momentum to resume the bullish attack, also, 1.7880 level attempt to form the additional support will reinforce the chances of forming bullish waves to target 1.8030 and 1.8080 levels.

The expected trading range for today is between 1.7880 and 1.8030

Trend forecast: Bullish

• Gold price licks wounds after Monday’s steep correction from near-record highs.   
• Mounting trade war fears could revive the buying interest in Gold price.
• Gold price remains poised for upside amid bullish daily RSI while above 21-day SMA.

Gold price licks its wounds following the sharp pullback from three-month highs just shy of the all-time peak of $2,790. Gold trades take account of the latest tariff talks by US President Donald Trump and his administration as attention turns toward mid-tier US economic data and Federal Reserve (Fed) policy announcements.

Gold price stays hopeful amid Trump-led risk aversion

Despite the unabated haven demand for the US Dollar (USD) amid mounting trade war fears and the extended sell-off on global stocks. The upswing in the US Treasury bond yields on reports of the White House pausing all federal grants add to the bearish undertone in Gold price.

Late Monday, US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent called for new universal tariffs on US imports, starting at 2.5% and rising gradually, per the Financial Times (FT). Meanwhile, President Trump noted that he plans to impose tariffs on imports of computer chips, pharmaceuticals, steel, aluminum, and copper. He added that he “wants tariffs “much bigger” than 2.5%” as Treasury Secretary Bessent proposed.

The continued tariff threats by the Trump administration continue to dent risk sentiment. Meanwhile, Asian markets are still reeling from the pain of China’s low-cost artificial intelligence (AI) model – DeepSeek-led global AI sell-off, which smashed current AI leader Nvidia by roughly 18% on Tuesday.

Looking ahead, traders look forward to the mid-tier US Durable Goods Orders and Consumer Confidence data for fresh trading impetus. However, US President Donald Trump’s tariff threats and the sentiment on Wall Street will play a key role in driving markets, eventually impacting the value of the USD and the Gold price.  

Markets will also remain on a  cautious footing as the Fed begins its two-day monetary policy later this Tuesday, with the policy decision and Chairman Jerome Powell’s press conference due on Wednesday.

Gold price technical analysis: Daily chart

The daily chart shows that the short-term technical outlook remains constructive for Gold price despite the long-due correction.

Gold price’s failure to seek daily candlestick closing above the symmetrical triangle target of $2,785 warrants caution for buyers.

However, the 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) holds comfortably above the midline, currently near 61, keeping Gold buyers hopeful.

Adding credence to the bullish potential, the 50-day SMA closed above the 100-day SMA last Thursday, confirming a Bull Cross.

Gold price must seek a daily closing above the record high of $2,790 to set a new highest level ever above $2,800. Buyers will then aim for the $2,850 psychological level.

On the downside, the immediate support will be seen at the previous day’s low of $2,731.

Sellers will then aim for the $2,700 round level, below which the 21-day SMA at $2,691 will be challenged.

• Silver price trades with caution near $30.00 as the US Dollar surges amid a jittery market mood.
• A sell-off in technology stocks across the globe has improved the US Dollar’s appeal.
• US bond yields gain as investors expect the Fed to keep interest rates steady.

Silver price (XAG/USD) recovers some of its intraday losses and strives to hold the key level of $30.00 in Tuesday’s European session. The white metal trades with caution amid a dismal market sentiment. The marker sentiment is deeply risk-averse as global technology, power, and data center stocks have faced an intense sell-off as market experts believe that Chinese Deepseek’s low-cost Artificial Intelligence (AI) model could challenge the dominance of top chatbots like OpenAI and Meta.

Technically, the appeal of precious metals increases in a highly risky market environment. However, a significant surge in the US Dollar (USD) and bond yields has restrictive the upside in the Silver price. The safe-haven demand for the US Dollar has increased significantly amid a sharp sell-off in technology stocks. The US Dollar Index (DXY), which tracks the Greenback’s value against six major currencies, jumps to near 108.00.

Meanwhile, 10-year US Treasury yields jump to near 4.56% ahead of the Federal Reserve’s (Fed) monetary policy announcement on Wednesday. The Fed is certain to announce a temporary pause in the policy-easing cycle and leave interest rates unchanged in the range of 4.25%-4.50%, according to the CME FedWatch tool.

Investors will pay close attention to Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s press conference to know for how long the Fed will keep borrowing rates steady. Market participants would be keen to know the impact of potential tariffs by President Donald Trump on the monetary policy stance and the economy.

Silver technical analysis

Silver price struggles near the 50-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) around $30.40. The white metal continues to face pressure near the upward-sloping trendline around $30.90, which is plotted from the 29 February 2024 low of $22.30 on a daily timeframe.

The broader outlook of the Silver price remains firm above the 200-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA), which trades around $29.50.

The 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) oscillates in the 40.00-60.00 range, suggesting a sideways trend.

Silver daily chart