Brent oil price continued to rise to test 74.00$ level, noticing that the price consolidates below this level after attempting to breach it in the previous sessions, accompanied by witnessing clear negative signals through stochastic, which overlaps negatively now.
US President Donald Trump rectified tariffs will come into effect on March 4.
The US will publish the January PCE Price Index on Friday.
XAU/USD fell to fresh weekly lows, with another leg south likely.
Spot Gold trades near a fresh weekly low of $2,867.76 on Thursday as risk aversion fueled demand for the safe-haven US Dollar (USD) across the Forex board. The United States (US) released relevant macroeconomic data, which fell short of impressive.
On the one hand, the US confirmed the annualized Q4 Gross Domestic Product (GDP) at 2.3% in the second estimate of the figure, although quarterly Personal Consumption Expenditures Prices suffered an upward revision to 2.4% from the previous estimate of 2.3%, and the core PCE prices were even higher, hitting 2.7% from the previous 2.5%.
On the other hand, Initial Jobless Claims rose to 242K in the week ended February 22, much higher than the 221K anticipated by market players. Also, Durable Goods Orders were up 3.1% in January, beating expectations of 2%. Finally, Pending Home Sales fell by 4.6% in the same month, much worse than the -1.3% expected.
However, what actually triggered fears was US President Donald Trump. After suggesting tariffs on Canada and Mexico will start in April on Wednesday, Trump rectified himself and clarified levies will go into effect on March 4 as scheduled. He also added an additional 10% tariff on China on the same date and said that reciprocal tariffs would come into effect on April 2.
Other than that, the US will publish on Friday the January Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index, the Federal Reserve’s (Fed) favorite inflation gauge. The PCE Price Index is foreseen up 0.3% on a monthly basis and by 2.5% from a year earlier.
XAU/USD short-term technical outlook
The daily chart for the XAU/USD pair shows an increased bearish potential, as it is breaking below a bullish 20 Simple Moving Average (SMA), the first time below it since January 7. The pair remains far above bullish 100 and 200 SMAs, yet technical indicators maintain their firmly bearish slopes, approaching their midlines from above.
In the near term and according to the 4-hour chart, XAU/USD extended its slide below the 20 and 100 SMAs, with the shorter gaining downward traction above the longer one. Technical indicators, in the meantime, have resumed their slides near oversold readings, maintaining a strong bearish momentum and anticipating lower lows ahead.
It is possible that today’s breakdown fails and instead support is retained, leading a rally. A decisive breakout above today’s high of $4.07 would provide a sign of strength that could lead to higher prices. Subsequently, Tuesday’s high at $4.19 would need to be exceeded for additional bullish confirmation. There is a price range of potentially significant resistance around the two most recent swing highs from $4.37 to $4.48.
Deeper Retracement More Likely
Nonetheless, given today’s bearish signal, the more likely scenario to play out is a deeper bearish pullback. Although there is an interim potential support zone around the 50% retracement at $3.73, it also begins a range of potential support going down to a weekly low at $3.55. Both the 20-Day and 50-Day MAs are rising and may converge with the 50% zone prior to it being tested as support.
If that happens it may provide a more significant support area given the convergence of several indicators. Further, the 20-Day MA is poised to cross above the 50-Day line, providing another sign of strength. Since the 50-Day MA covers a larger trend than the 20-Day line, it is given priority.
It is also interesting to note that on the weekly chart (not shown) support for this week is around the 200-Week MA, now at $3.92. The low for the week is today’s low at $3.88.
For a look at all of today’s economic events, check out our economic calendar.
Despite platinum price surrender to the domination of the sideways bias, providing new negative closings below 983.00$ barrier supports the domination of the previously suggested bearish bias, to notice facing the MA55 by settling at 960.00$.
The price needs new negative momentum to manage to decline below the current obstacle and start targeting the previously suggested negative stations, located at 950.00$ and 941.00$.
The expected trading range for today is between 950.00$ and 970.00$
JM Smucker raised its annual profit forecast after higher product prices, especially for coffee, helped the Uncrustables sandwich maker beat market estimates for quarterly earnings.
That boosted the company’s third-quarter gross margin to 40.2% from 36.9% last year.
It now expects annual adjusted earnings per share in the range of $9.85 to $10.15, compared with the prior forecast of $9.70 to $10.10.
The company’s net sales in the domestic retail coffee segment – its biggest revenue generator – rose 2% in the quarter, compared with a 1% decline last year. The increase was primarily driven by higher prices for its Folgers and Café Bustelo coffee brands.
Quarterly Highlights
Smucker reported quarterly adjusted profit of $2.61 per share for the three months ended 31 January, above estimates of $2.37, according to data compiled by LSEG.
However, certain supply chain disruptions pulled down net sales by 2% to $2.19 billion (€2.10 billion), below expectations of $2.23 billion (€2.14 billion).
JM Smucker also lowered its annual net sales forecast. It now expects an increase of 7.25%, compared with a rise of 7.50% to 8.50% expected earlier.
The company said the forecast reflects a loss of about $100 million in contract manufacturing sales related to its divested pet food brands, compared with the prior year.
Mark Smucker, chair of the board, president and chief executive officer, stated, “Our third quarter performance reflects the continued execution of our strategy and ability to deliver positive results in a dynamic operating and consumer environment.
“Our strategy and the prioritization of our key growth platforms has enabled us to deliver a strong fiscal year to date, and we are well-positioned to deliver both top- and bottom-line growth, while increasing shareholder value over time.”
Brent oil price provided new negative trades to approach our first waited target at 72.20$, and continues to move inside the main bearish channel that appears on the chart, which supports the chances of continuing the bearish trend on the intraday and short-term basis, supported by the EMA50.
Gold price reverses previous gains to tread water above $2,900 early Thursday.
US Dollar rebounds on mixed Trump’s tariff messages and firm US Treasury bond yields.
Gold buyers defend the 21-day SMA at $2,890 as the daily RSI stays bullish.
The Q4 US GDP revision and Fedspeak could provide fresh impetus to Gold traders.
Gold price is unable to hold on to the modest gains booked on Wednesday as buyers and sellers enter a tug-of-war situation early Thursday, courtesy of the uncertainty around US President Donald Trump’s tariff plans and lingering US economic concerns.
Gold price down but not out ahead of US GDP, Trump
Following his Tuesday remarks that 25% tariffs on Canada and Mexico remain on track from March 4, Trump shifted his message in American trading on Wednesday, noting that steep 25% tariffs on Mexican and Canadian goods could take effect on April 2.
Trump’s conflicting messages keep the haven demand for the US Dollar (USD) alive and kicking at the expense of the Gold price. Further, the rebound in the US Treasury bond yields also check the Gold price upside.
Additionally, the end-of-the-month short-covering contributes to the recent USD upswing. The Greenback is down nearly 4% from a more than two-year high hit in January.
Upbeat results from the American artificial intelligence (AI) leader Nvidia, following Wednesday’s market close, seem to keep the broader market sentiment lifted, reflected by the 0.20% gain in the US S&P 500 futures.
The cautiously optimistic market mood reduces the demand for the US government bonds, fuelling a modest uptick in the US Treasury bond yields.
However, any downside in Gold price could be quickly bought into as markets continue to price in two interest rate cuts by the US Federal Reserve (Fed) this year in the face of mounting economic slowdown concerns. US Consumer Confidence Index declined 7 points on Tuesday, its most significant fall since August 2021, to 98.3, well below the Reuters estimate of 102.5.
Therefore, all eyes remain on the US Gross Domestic Product (GDP) second revision print for the fourth quarter of 2024 for fresh signs on the health of the economy, which could significantly impact the direction of the Fed interest rates and the US Dollar, eventually influencing the non-yielding Gold price.
The second estimate of the US GDP is expected to show a 2.3% annualized growth in Q4 2024, as seen in the advance release. Gold buyers will likely jump back in the game on a downward revision to the preliminary reading and vice-versa.
Also of note will be the US Durable Goods Orders, Pending Home Sales data and speeches from several Fed policymakers. However, US President Donald Trump’s media address later in the early American session could steal the show and reverse any Gold price reaction to the US data releases.
Gold price technical analysis: Daily chart
Gold price outlook appears more or less the same from a short-term technical perspective.
So long as the Gold price defends the 21-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) at $2,890 and the 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) sits above 50, the bullish potential will likely remain intact.
Gold buyers could retest the all-time highs at $2,956 on acceptance above the previous day’s high of $2,930. The next topside barriers are seen at the $2,970 resistance and the $3,000 threshold.
If sellers crack the 21-day SMA at $2,890 on a daily candlestick closing basis, the downside could open toward the February 14 low of $2,877.
The last line of defense for Gold buyers is at the $2,850 psychological barrier.
Economic Indicator
Gross Domestic Product Annualized
The real Gross Domestic Product (GDP) Annualized, released quarterly by the US Bureau of Economic Analysis, measures the value of the final goods and services produced in the United States in a given period of time. Changes in GDP are the most popular indicator of the nation’s overall economic health. The data is expressed at an annualized rate, which means that the rate has been adjusted to reflect the amount GDP would have changed over a year’s time, had it continued to grow at that specific rate. Generally speaking, a high reading is seen as bullish for the US Dollar (USD), while a low reading is seen as bearish.
Natural gas price touched 4.186$ level yesterday followed by surrendering to stochastic intraday negativity, to notice retesting 3.950$ support line and settling above it to confirm keeping the previously suggested bullish bias.
Now, stochastic attempt to gather the positive momentum will increase the chances of rallying towards 4.240$ to form the first target for the current trades, while surpassing it might extend trades towards 4.500$ recorded high direct.
The expected trading range for today is between 3.900$ and 4.240$
Copper price surrendered to the stability of 4.6800$ barrier to force it to activate the bearish track again by crawling below 50% Fibonacci correction level and settling near 4.4900$.
Stochastic attempt to provide the negative momentum increases the negative pressures, to expect suffering additional losses by moving towards 4.4100$ followed by reaching the MA55 at 4.3200$.
The expected trading range for today is between 4.4100$ and 4.5600$
Silver remains below $32.00 on Thursday and close to a two-week low touched on Tuesday.
The technical setup seems tilted in favor of bears and supports prospects for further losses.
A sustained break below the 100-day SMA support is needed to reaffirm the negative bias.
Silver (XAG/USD) struggles to capitalize on the previous day’s modest gains and oscillates in a narrow trading band, below the $32.00 round-figure mark during the Asian session on Thursday. The white metal, meanwhile, holds above the 100-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) pivotal support, currently pegged near the $31.30-$31.25 zone, or a two-week low touched on Tuesday.
From a technical perspective, the recent repeated failures to find acceptance above the $33.00 mark and the subsequent downfall favor bearish traders. Moreover, oscillators on the daily chart have just started gaining negative traction and support prospects for an extension of a one-week-old downtrend. The XAG/USD might then weaken further below the $31.00 round-figure mark, towards testing the next relevant support near the $30.25 region.
The downward trajectory could extend further towards the $30.00 psychological mark. A convincing break below the latter will suggest that the XAG/USD has topped out in the near term and pave the way for a further depreciating move towards the $29.55-$29.50 horizontal zone en route to the $29.00 round figure and December 2024 swing low, around the $28.80-$28.75 area.
On the flip side, any positive move beyond the $32.00 mark is likely to confront some resistance near the $32.40-$32.45 region. Some follow-through buying should allow the XAG/USD to make a fresh attempt toward conquering the $33.00 round figure. A sustained strength beyond the latter could lift the commodity towards the monthly swing high, around the $33.40 area touched on February 14, and aim towards reclaiming the $34.00 mark.
Silver FAQs
Silver is a precious metal highly traded among investors. It has been historically used as a store of value and a medium of exchange. Although less popular than Gold, traders may turn to Silver to diversify their investment portfolio, for its intrinsic value or as a potential hedge during high-inflation periods. Investors can buy physical Silver, in coins or in bars, or trade it through vehicles such as Exchange Traded Funds, which track its price on international markets.
Silver prices can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can make Silver price escalate due to its safe-haven status, although to a lesser extent than Gold’s. As a yieldless asset, Silver tends to rise with lower interest rates. Its moves also depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAG/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Silver at bay, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to propel prices up. Other factors such as investment demand, mining supply – Silver is much more abundant than Gold – and recycling rates can also affect prices.
Silver is widely used in industry, particularly in sectors such as electronics or solar energy, as it has one of the highest electric conductivity of all metals – more than Copper and Gold. A surge in demand can increase prices, while a decline tends to lower them. Dynamics in the US, Chinese and Indian economies can also contribute to price swings: for the US and particularly China, their big industrial sectors use Silver in various processes; in India, consumers’ demand for the precious metal for jewellery also plays a key role in setting prices.
Silver prices tend to follow Gold’s moves. When Gold prices rise, Silver typically follows suit, as their status as safe-haven assets is similar. The Gold/Silver ratio, which shows the number of ounces of Silver needed to equal the value of one ounce of Gold, may help to determine the relative valuation between both metals. Some investors may consider a high ratio as an indicator that Silver is undervalued, or Gold is overvalued. On the contrary, a low ratio might suggest that Gold is undervalued relative to Silver.
