Futures have breached two pivotal 50% support levels at $3.850 and $4.043, positioning the market for further declines. A potential test of the January 3 low at $3.330 looms as the next downside target. A recovery above $3.850 would signal the first signs of strength, with a move through $4.053 reinforcing a bullish shift. However, a break below $3.736 would further confirm downside momentum. These technical markers are essential for traders looking to time entry and exit points effectively.

Weather Impact Already Priced In

Although an Arctic blast has gripped the central and eastern U.S., driving temperatures as low as northern Florida, traders have largely dismissed the event’s immediate impact. Unlike other markets, natural gas professionals often sell rallies, guided by short-term forecasts. The futures market’s two-week window has rendered the current cold snap irrelevant, as milder weather predictions for late January have already been factored into pricing. Last week’s rally to $4.369 was met with selling pressure, reflecting this forward-looking strategy.

Storage and LNG Factors Add to Bearish Sentiment

Recent data from the Energy Information Administration (EIA) underscores robust heating demand, with a storage withdrawal of 258 Bcf, nearly double the five-year average. While this signals short-term strength in demand, domestic storage levels remain 77 Bcf above the seasonal average, mitigating supply concerns. Liquefied natural gas (LNG) exports continue to provide a bullish backdrop, supported by European demand amid depleted inventories. However, signs of softening LNG flow and declining power generation demand temper the market’s upside potential.

What Does the Weekly Reversal Signal?

Last week’s close at $3.948, following a high of $4.369, marked a bearish reversal pattern, often preceding extended declines. Traders should heed this signal, as it indicates waning buying interest and reinforces the bearish impact of technical and fundamental factors aligning. Profit-taking and milder weather forecasts have compounded the market’s retreat, underlining its sensitivity to rapid sentiment shifts.

Market Forecast: Bearish with Risks of Volatility

Natural gas futures are likely to face additional downward pressure, with support at $3.330 as the next critical level. However, volatility remains a risk, as unexpected weather developments or surging LNG demand could reignite buying interest. For now, the market leans bearish, emphasizing the importance of close monitoring of weather updates and storage data to navigate the near term effectively.

More Information in our Economic Calendar.

• Silver price ticks lower as the US Dollar recovers sharply, with Trump keeping the tariff hike plan intact.
• Trump directed federal agencies to scrutinize trade relations with neighbors and China.
• Traders have raised dovish bets for the Fed’s May policy meeting.

Silver price (XAG/USD) drops slightly to near $30.50 in Tuesday’s European session. The white metal faces pressures as the US Dollar (USD) rebounds strongly after President Donald Trump confirmed that the plan of tariff hikes on foreign countries is delayed not denied. On his first day at the White House, Trump mentioned that the proposal of universal tariff hikes is on the table, but “We are not ready for that yet”.

The US Dollar Index (DXY), which tracks the Greenback’s value against six major currencies, rebounds sharply from its almost two-week low around 108.00, which it posted on Monday. Historically, a higher US Dollar weighs on precious metals, such as Silver, by making them expensive for investors.

The Greenback plummeted on Tuesday after reports from the Wall Street Journal (WSJ) showed that tariff hikes were absent in a presidential memo. However, the memo indicated that Trump has directed federal agencies to study trade policies and evaluate trade relationships with China and other North American economies.

Meanwhile, the downside in the Silver price has been limited by falling bond yields. Lower yields on interest-bearing assets reduce the opportunity cost of non-yielding assets, such as Silver, which improves their appeal. 10-year US Treasury yields decline to 4.56%. US Treasury yields have slumped as trader expect that the Federal Reserve (Fed) could cut interest rates in the policy meeting in May.

According to the CME FedWatch tool, the probability for the Fed to reduce interest rates in May has eased to 53% from 63% a week ago.

Silver technical analysis

Silver price struggles near the upward-sloping trendline around $30.80, which is plotted from 29 February 2024 low of $22.30 on a daily timeframe.

The white metal discovered strong buying interest near the 200-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) around $29.45 and but struggles to sustain above the 50-day EMA, which is around $30.30.

The 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) faces pressure near 60.00. A fresh bullish momentum would trigger if it manages to break above 60.00.

Silver daily chart

 

Walgreens Boots Alliance’s stock price (WBA) fell in the intraday levels on profit-taking, while venting off overbought saturation in the RSI, amid the dominance of the upward correctional wave in the short term, with positive pressure due to trading above the 50-day SMA. 

 

Therefore we expect the price to return higher and target the resistance of $15.54, provided it settles firmly above the support of $11.11. 

 

Trend forecast for today: Likely Bullish 

 

 

The AUDCAD price faced some positive pressures recently, to postpone the negative trades by forming temporary correctional bullish rebound and face 0.9030 barrier, noting that the frequent stability below 0.9085 resistance line and the MA55 crawl below it confirm the continuation of the negativity for the near-term and medium-term trades.

 

Also, stochastic reach to the overbought areas confirms getting rid of the positive pressures and provides the chance to gather the negative momentum again to ease the mission of renewing the negative attempts and target many negative stations that start at 0.8930 followed by reaching the next main target at 0.8800.

 

The expected trading range for today is between 0.8930 and 0.9045

 

Trend forecast: Bearish

Platinum price started to get the positive momentum after stochastic exit from the oversold areas, forming some bullish waves to approach 955.00$ obstacle, assuring the importance of surpassing this obstacle to open the way to record many gains by rallying towards 983.00$ level first, followed by reaching 1005.00$ on the near-term basis.

 

The risks of changing the bullish trend will appear in case the price formed sharp decline to settle below 920.00$ level, to return to fluctuate within the minor bearish channel that appears on the chart.

 

The expected trading range for today is between 930.00$ and 965.00$

 

Trend forecast: Bullish

• Silver reverses an Asian session dip and turns positive for the second straight day.
• The technical setup favors bulls and supports prospects for further appreciation.
• Any meaningful dips could be seen as a buying opportunity near the $30.00 mark.

Silver (XAG/USD) attracts some dip-buying near the $30.20 area during the Asian session on Tuesday and looks to build on the overnight bounce from the vicinity of the 100-period Exponential Moving Average (EMA) on the 4-hour chart. The white metal, however, eases from a two-day high touched in the last hour and currently trades around the $30.60-$30.55 region, up 0.25% for the day.

Looking at the broader picture, the recent move up witnessed over the past four weeks or so, from the $28.75-$28.70 region or a multi-month low touched in December, has been along an upward-sloping channel. This, along with the fact that oscillators on the daily chart have just started gaining positive traction, favors the XAG/USD bulls and supports prospects for a further near-term appreciating move towards the $31.00 mark.

A subsequent move up is likely to confront resistance near the top boundary of the aforementioned channel, currently pegged near the $31.25 region. A sustained breakout above the said barrier has the potential to lift the XAG/USD towards the $32.00 mark, with some intermediate hurdle near the $31.45-$31.50 region. The momentum could extend further towards the December swing high, around the $32.25-$32.30 area. 

On the flip side, the $30.00 psychological mark – comprising the 100-period EMA on the 4-hour chart and the lower end of the ascending channel – might continue to act as immediate support. A convincing break below might shift the bias in favor of bearish traders and make the XAG/USD vulnerable to accelerate the fall towards the $29.50 region en route to the $29.00 mark and the $28.75-$28.70 region, or the multi-month low.

XAG/USD 4-hour chart

 

Brent oil price shows positive trades by today’s open, affected by stochastic positivity, noticing that the price closed yesterday below 80.10$ level, to support the chances of continuing the decline on the intraday basis, as it starts bearish correction for the rise measured from 71.23$ to 82.82$, waiting to head towards 78.39$ as a next correctional target.

 

Holding below 80.85$ keeps the negative scenario valid, as breaching it represents the key to return to the bullish track and head to achieve gains that start by visiting the recently recorded high at 82.82$.

 

The expected trading range for today is between 78.60$ support and 81.60$ resistance.

 

Trend forecast: Bearish

• Gold price extends rebound toward $2,750, retests one-month top.  
• Trump’s tariff threats-led risk aversion lifts the US Dollar weakens, Treasuries and Gold price.
• Risks remain skewed to the upside for Gold price amid a bullish daily technical setup.

Gold price builds on its rebound to retest monthly highs of $2,725 early Tuesday. Gold buyers are back in action alongside US President Donald Trump’s tariff threats, fuelling risk-off sentiment across the financial markets.

Gold price risks volatile trading  

Trump said: “We’re thinking in terms of 25% on Mexico and Canada,” effective February 1. He added that his administration “will straighten out the deficit with EU with tariffs or by them buying our oil and gas,” threatening tariffs on the old continent anytime soon.

Trump also noted that he is prepared to impose tariffs on China if Beijing doesnt approve the TikTok deal. Investors scurried for safety in the traditional safe-haven Gold price, propping up the rates close to monthly highs of $2,725.

The flight to safety theme remains supportive of Gold price and US government bonds, which weigh negatively on the US Treasury bond yields. Trump tariff threats could revive inflation concerns worldwide, providing extra support to Gold price. The bullion is considered a hedge against inflation.

However, further upside appears elusive for Gold buyers as the US Dollar (USD) has also gains on safe-haven demand, capping the USD-denominated bright metal. Additionally, expectations that the US Federal Reserve (Fed) would deliver two interest rate cuts this year after the tame December inflation data, act as a tailwind to Gold price but that could change if inflation concerns sag investors’ sentiment.

On Monday, Gold price witnessed good two-way businesses, initially extending Friday’s correction on easing Middle East tensions and profit-taking heading into Trump’s inauguration. However, during Trump’s inaugural address, the USD dipped to a nine-day low, helping Gold price stage a decent rebound above $2,700.

A 15-month-long relentless war between Israel and Hamas culminated in a ceasefire on Sunday as hundreds of trucks carrying aid entered Gaza on the first day.

In the day ahead, Gold trades will remain at the mercy of the broader market sentiment and Trump’s tariff talks, in the absence of any top-tier US economic data releases.

Gold price technical analysis: Daily chart

The short-term technical outlook remains constructive for Gold price.

This month’s symmetrical triangle breakout remains in play, while the yellow metal holds well above all the major daily simple moving averages (SMA), supporting the bullish case.

The 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) points north above the midline, currently near 63, adding credence to the bullish potential.

Gold price eyes acceptance above the key static resistance at $2,726 to extend the uptrend toward the $2,750 psychological barrier. The next target is aligned at the record high of $2,790.

On the downside, Gold price could test the $2,700 round level, below which the January 15 low of $2,670 will be threatened.

The 21-day SMA at $2,658 could next be on the sellers’ radars.

 

Uptrend Remains Intact

The uptrend in natural gas remains intact with a rising trendline providing guidance for dynamic support below the 20-Day line. It is currently near a possible support zone from 3.67 to 3.64 or so. Notice how the trendline rises through that price zone is looking directly below today’s price action on the chart. A decisive drop below 3.64 could lead to still lower prices.

That would trigger a breakdown below the trendline and a daily close below the line would be needed to confirm the bearish implications. If this occurs, then there are two lower price levels that identify potential support. The first is the completion of a 61.8% Fibonacci retracement at 3.51.

50-Day MA Marks Lower Support

Nonetheless, it looks like there is a potentially more significant price level around the prior swing high of 3.39 as two indicators point to that price area. Notice that the 50-Day MA has just recaptured the 3.39 price level to arrive at 3.40. If the price area around the 50-Day line fails to provide support that leads to a bullish reversal, lower levels may be tested. Certainly, a full retracement back to the breakout area of a large symmetrical triangle at 3.02 looks possible if the bears take back control.

Bounce Looks Possible

A decisive breakout above today’s high will signal strength after buyers took back control following the low of 3.76. Regardless, a continuation of that strength might be difficult given recent signs of a short-term top. Last week a new trend high of 4.37 was met with a reversal day and a weak close. A second high was then generated last Thursday at 4.33. That sets up a potential falling ABCD pattern (not shown) with an initial target at 3.70. Notice that is very close to the 50% retracement.

For a look at all of today’s economic events, check out our economic calendar.

Oil prices settled lower on Monday after U.S. President Donald Trump was sworn in for a second time, and said he would immediately declare a national energy emergency, promising to fill up strategic reserves and export American energy all over the world.Brent crude futures closed down by 64 cents, or 0.8 per cent, at $80.15 in early settlement due to the U.S. Martin Luther King Jr. Day holiday. U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude futures were down by $1.30, or 1.7 per cent, at $76.58. The more active WTI crude March contract was down 91 cents, or 1.2 per cent, at $76.48. There will be no settlement for WTI contracts due to the U.S. holiday.
US President Donald Trump on Monday announced his administration would declare a “national energy emergency” to significantly expand drilling in the world’s top oil and gas producer, signaling a sharp departure from Joe Biden’s climate-focused policies.

“The inflation crisis was caused by massive overspending and escalating energy prices, and that is why today I will also declare a national energy emergency. We will ‘Drill, baby, drill!'” Trump said during his inauguration speech.

The focus is on what executive orders Trump will sign over the next 24 hours, said UBS analyst Giovanni Staunovo.
Trump is also expected to make policy announcements that include an end to a moratorium on LNG export licences as part of a wider strategy to strengthen the economy.

The Brent and WTI benchmarks advanced more than 1 per cent last week for a fourth-consecutive weekly gain after the Biden administration imposed sanctions on more than 100 tankers and two Russian oil producers.

That led to a scramble by top buyers China and India for prompt oil cargoes and a rush for ship supply, as dealers of Russian and Iranian oil sought tankers not under sanctions for oil shipment.

While the new sanctions could cut supply from Russia by nearly 1 million barrels per day, recent price gains could be short-lived depending on Trump’s actions, ANZ analysts said in a client note.

Trump has promised to help to end the Russia-Ukraine war quickly, which could involve relaxing some curbs to enable an accord, they said.

Easing tension in the Middle East also kept a lid on oil prices. Hamas and Israel exchanged hostages and prisoners on Sunday that marked the first day of a ceasefire after 15 months of war. Yemen’s Houthis will target only Israel-linked vessels following the Gaza ceasefire, the Sanaa-based Humanitarian Operations Coordination Center said.

FAQs

Q1. What are key indexes of Crude oil?
A1. Two key indexes of Crude oil are Brent crude futures and U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude futures.

Q2. What has Donald Trump said about Russia-Ukraine war?
A2. Donald Trump has promised to help to end the Russia-Ukraine war quickly.