Crude oil markets took a fresh hit this weekend after OPEC+ stunned traders by announcing a larger-than-expected output increase for June. In a virtual meeting on Saturday, key producers led by Saudi Arabia and Russia agreed to raise collective output by 411,000 barrels per day (bpd), nearly triple the volume originally scheduled.

The move follows a similar surge announced for May and signals a sharp reversal from OPEC+ efforts to defend oil prices. Instead, Riyadh appears to be embracing a low-price strategy, aiming to discipline overproducing members like Kazakhstan and Iraq. Both nations have repeatedly exceeded their quotas, with Kazakhstan surpassing its March target by 422,000 bpd.

“OPEC+ has just thrown a bombshell to the oil market,” Jorge Leon of Rystad Energy told Bloomberg. “With this move, Saudi Arabia is seeking to punish lack of compliance and also ingratiate itself with President Trump.”

President Donald Trump has loudly demanded lower oil prices, and with fresh tariffs rattling global markets, OPEC+ appears to be aligning with Washington’s inflation-fighting agenda. Trump is set to visit the Middle East this month, and closer energy cooperation may be on the table.

Oil prices had already been under pressure, with Brent trading near $61 a barrel on Friday, a four-year low. The OPEC+ decision sent prices tumbling another 6%, compounding bearish sentiment triggered by trade war fears and weakening economic data.

Goldman Sachs responded by slashing its December 2025 oil forecast by $5 to $66 for Brent and $62 for WTI, citing both rising OPEC+ supply and Trump’s tariff barrage. “We no longer forecast a price range,” Goldman said, “because price volatility is likely to stay elevated on higher recession risk.”

Standard Chartered joined the chorus of bearish revisions, slashing its 2025 Brent forecast by $16 to $61 a barrel, and trimming its 2026 outlook to $78. The bank warned that the Trump administration’s tariff-heavy approach is fueling recession fears and eroding market confidence—especially after a downbeat U.S. economic report this week.

JPMorgan also raised its global recession odds to 60% for the year, while S&P Global warned that oil demand growth could drop by as much as 500,000 bpd.

OPEC+ justified the output hike by citing “continuing healthy market fundamentals,” though many see the move as an effort to assert market share and enforce compliance. Analysts like Helima Croft argue that by opening the taps, Saudi Arabia is reasserting control over rogue members while signaling readiness to let prices fall to discipline the market.

The eight members behind the increase—Saudi Arabia, Russia, Iraq, the UAE, Kuwait, Kazakhstan, Algeria, and Oman—will reassess in June. But for now, the message is clear: OPEC+ is no longer defending high prices, and oil markets should prepare for more volatility ahead.

By Tom Kool for Oilprice.com

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At the same time, U.S. economic signals painted a mixed picture: GDP shrank by 0.3% in Q1 and core PCE was flat in March, while jobless claims rose to 241,000. Yet April’s jobs report offered just enough resilience to keep the Fed on the sidelines for now, limiting gold’s near-term upside.

Fed in Focus with Powell Set to Speak on Wednesday

This week, all attention turns to the Federal Reserve. The FOMC is expected to hold rates steady on Wednesday, but Chair Powell’s press conference may carry outsized impact. Political pressure has intensified, with President Trump and Treasury Secretary Bessent openly criticizing the Fed and urging preemptive cuts. However, with Friday’s jobs report showing no clear labor market deterioration, Powell may strike a cautious tone—potentially reinforcing higher-for-longer rate expectations unless inflation or employment data worsen.

Gold Prices Forecast: Bearish Near-Term Bias as Fed Holds the Line

Gold enters the week with a bearish tilt. A firmer dollar, muted physical demand, and reduced expectations for near-term Fed cuts are all headwinds. Unless Powell surprises with dovish guidance, bullion is likely to remain under pressure.

The broader macro picture—rising fiscal stress, policy uncertainty, and central bank accumulation—still supports long-term upside. But near-term, a lack of fresh catalysts favors sellers unless Fed rhetoric or incoming data reignites rate cut speculation. Traders should brace for volatility around Wednesday’s FOMC announcement and Powell’s post-meeting remarks.

More Information in our Economic Calendar.

West Texas Intermediate (WTI) Oil price advances on Friday, early in the European session. WTI trades at $59.21 per barrel, up from Thursday’s close at $58.71.
Brent Oil Exchange Rate (Brent crude) is also up, advancing from the $61.79 price posted on Thursday, and trading at $62.30.

New Weekly Breakout Triggers

A weekly closing price above $3.61 will leave natural gas poised to rise into the next higher potential resistance zone. It is marked by the confluence of several indicators from $3.72 to $3.80. The 61.8% Fibonacci retracement target is at $3.72 and is followed by the neckline of a head and shoulders top formation at $3.73. There is an AVWAP level from the trend high $3.75 and further up is the 50-Day MA at $3.80. Given the potential significance of the 50-Day line, it marks the highest potential target for the current advance. But if it exceeded to the upside, the 78.6% Fibonacci retracement at $3.95 becomes a higher target.

Demand Improving

Natural gas is showing improving demand given the three-week breakout that triggered today and the likely strong weekly closing price, near the highs of the week. A one-week bullish reversal triggered earlier this week, and a strong weekly closing price would show buyers remained in charge heading into the weekend.

That strength could carry over into next week. Since the recent low of $2.86 established a higher swing low and it occurred at a recognized potential support area, the recent bearish correction should be complete, leaving natural gas in a position to further progress its long-term uptrend. Therefore, surprises may be on the upside rather than the downside.

Head and Shoulders Top Resistance Zone

Of course, natural gas is rising into a large potential resistance zone highlighted by the head and shoulders topping pattern. But it also advancing from a higher swing low near the lower end of a large rising parallel trend channel. The recent swing low established a higher slope for the trend, marked by a rising dashed line. A reversal from the lows of the channel suggests the possibility of an eventual advance to the top channel line.

For a look at all of today’s economic events, check out our economic calendar.

Copper price surrendered to the positivity of the moving average55, which represents extra support near $4.5400, to begin recovering some of the losses by its current rally towards $4.6300, this rebound will not threat the negative track, due to the main stability below the resistance at $4.9100, besides 50% Fibonacci correction level attempt to form an extra barrier at $4.6600.

And that makes us wait for gathering negative momentum to ease the mission of holding below the moving average 55, then targeting more negative stations by reaching $4.4500 reaching the next main target at $4.3100.

The expected trading range for today is between $4.6600 and $4.4500

Trend forecast: Bearish

The CADCHF succeeded in activating the bullish track again by surpassing 61.8%Fibonacci correction level at 174.45, to notice recording clear gains by reaching 175.72.

The continuation of forming extra support and providing positive momentum by the main indicators, which will increase the chances for recording new gains, to expect reaching 176.10, and surpassing this barrier will make the price succeed to press on %78.1Fibonacci correction level at  176.85.

The expected trading range for today is between 174.90 and 176.10

Trend forecast: Bullish

Natural gas price attempted to renew the bullish attempts by its rally yesterday towards $3.550, but providing negative momentum by the main indicators, specifically stochastic exit from the overbought level, which pushed it to return to $3.440, easing the way for activating the bearish correctional track.

Therefore, we will begin preferring the bearish scenario, confirming that holding below the barrier at $3.600, reinforcing the chances for reaching $3.330 then targeting $3.210.

The expected trading range for today is between $3.330 and $3.520

Trend forecast: Bearish

Copper price surrendered to the positivity of the moving average55, which represents extra support near $4.5400, to begin recovering some of the losses by its current rally towards $4.6300, this rebound will not threat the negative track, due to the main stability below the resistance at $4.9100, besides 50% Fibonacci correction level attempt to form an extra barrier at $4.6600.

And that makes us wait for gathering negative momentum to ease the mission of holding below the moving average 55, then targeting more negative stations by reaching $4.4500 reaching the next main target at $4.3100.

The expected trading range for today is between $4.6600 and $4.4500

Trend forecast: Bearish

Silver Follows Gold Higher as Rate Cut Hopes Build

Silver (XAG/USD) tracked gold’s momentum, trading at $32.62 and reaching an intra-day high of $32.71. The metal is benefiting from renewed interest in precious metals amid softening U.S. macroeconomic data.

This week’s ADP employment report signaled weakening private-sector job growth, while initial jobless claims jumped to 241,000, marking the highest reading since February.

The ISM Manufacturing PMI also remained in contraction at 48.7, underscoring broad economic deceleration.

Stronger Dollar, Trade Talks Cap Upside Momentum

Despite the rally, gains in gold remain capped as the U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) holds near a three-week high. Optimism over renewed trade negotiations between the U.S. and China—following remarks from China’s Commerce Ministry—has lent support to the greenback, dampening safe-haven demand.

“The stronger dollar is temporarily capping gains in bullion,” said a Hong Kong-based metals strategist. “But if the NFP misses, we could see a breakout above $3,270.”

Markets Price in Four Fed Rate Cuts by Year-End

According to CME FedWatch Tool data, markets are now pricing in four 25-basis-point rate cuts by December. With inflation cooling and labor data softening, the Fed may be forced to act sooner than initially projected.

• Gold price is set to book its third weekly gain on Friday, consolidating near two-week lows.
• The US Dollar pauses its recovery mode ahead of the key US Nonfarm Payrolls test.  
• Technically, the 21-day SMA guards the downside amid bullish daily RSI after the rising channel breakdown.

Gold price is nursing weekly losses early Friday, and it is on track to book its worst week in over two months. Gold buyers refuse to give up, anticipating the high-impact US Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) data due later this Friday for a fresh directional impetus.

Gold price eyes the US NFP report for some reprieve

Gold price is off the two-week lows of $3,202 set on Thursday, licking its wounds as traders refrain from placing any fresh directional bets heading into the key event risk for Friday – the US labor market report.

The US Dollar (USD) has been on a roll higher this week, thanks to easing trade tensions globally, with the US optimistic about reaching trade deals with its major Asian trading partners, including China.

Risk sentiment received a fresh lift earlier on after the local media reported the Chinese Commerce Ministry as saying that “the US has recently sent messages to China through relevant parties, hoping to start talks with China,”

“China is currently evaluating this,” the Ministry added.

Further, easing US economic growth concerns also underpinned the sentiment around the Greenback, rendering it negative for the USD-denominated Gold price. Data showed on Thursday that the ISM manufacturing PMI fell to 48.7 in April from 49.0 in March, against expectations for a bigger fall to 48. 

Early Friday,markets seem to have resorted to their position adjustments in the US Dollar, leading to a pause in its recent uptrend, while the bright metal also draws some support from the Russia-Ukraine geopolitical stand-off.

Attention now turns toward the US NFP data release for the next big action in the Gold price and the King Dollar.  

Markets expect the US NFP to show a 130,000 job gain in April, down from a stellar 228,000 job creations reported in March. The Unemployment Rate is set to remain steady at 4.2% in the same period.

If the headline NFP prints a reading below the 100,000 level, it could refuel concerns over the impact of tariffs on ŪS labor market. This narrative could double down on the US Federal Reserve’s (Fed) easing prospects, triggering a fresh US Dollar downside while rescuing the Gold price.

On the other hand, a positive surprise above the 200,000 figure could add extra legs to the Gold price correction, pushing back against expectations of a June interest rate cut and boosting the USD further.

Gold price technical analysis: Daily chart

Gold price clings to the critical 21-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) support, now at $3,234, pausing the correction accentuated by the downside break of a three-week-long rising channel on Wednesday.

The 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) sits just above the midline near 52.50, having ended its descent.

Therefore, a rebound toward the immediate static support-turned-resistance at $3,260 could be seen if the 21-day SMA holds on a weak US NFP report.

Acceptance above that level will prompt Gold buyers to flex their muscles toward the channel support (now resistance) at $3,405.

Ahead of that, the $3,350 could be a tough nut to crack.

If the US jobs data exceeds expectations by a wide margin, Gold sellers crack the 21-day SMA at $3,234 on a sustained basis, opening doors toward the $3,150 psychological level.

The 50-day SMA at $3,087 will be next on their radars.