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• Gold prices orbited around $2,700 as investors assessed Trump 2.0.
• The Greenback suffered the strong rebound in the risk-linked galaxy.
• The Fed is largely expected to keep rates unchanged in January.

Gold prices (XAU/USD) continued their bullish momentum near the $2,700 mark at the start of the week, amid thin trading conditions due to Martin Luther King Jr. Day and heightened anticipation ahead of President Trump’s Inauguration Day.

The US Dollar (USD) weakened throughout Monday’s session as investors adopted a risk-on approach in anticipation of Donald Trump beginning his second term as President.

Looking ahead, developments surrounding the White House are expected to dominate the immediate market focus during a week light on significant data releases. Meanwhile, attention is gradually shifting toward the January 28–29 FOMC meeting, where the Federal Reserve is widely expected to keep interest rates unchanged.

XAU/USD short-term technical outlook

Gold’s next major upward target is $2,724, the 2025 peak reached on January 16. Just beyond that lie the December high of $2,726 (December 12) and the all-time top of $2,790 set on October 31. If prices break these levels, Fibonacci projections suggest potential new milestones at $3,009, $3,123, and $3,288.

On the downside, immediate support stands at the monthly low of $2,582 from December 19, seconded by $2,536, the November low (November 14), and the critical 200-day simple moving average at $2,511. A deeper pullback might retest $2,471, the September low (September 4). Beyond that, $2,353 (the weekly low from July 25) and $2,286 (the June low from June 7) could come into play.

If gold prices breach this lower region, the May low of $2,277 (May 3) might resurface on traders’ radar, followed by the weekly low of $2,146 (March 18). The ultimate downside target for now remains the 2024 bottom of $1,984, recorded on February 14.

Gold daily chart

Created on January 20, 2025

• Silver has fallen pretty significantly during the trading session on Friday, but it is trying to hang on to the 50 day EMA.
• The 50 day EMA of course is a technical indicator that a lot of you will be paying attention to and this does at least show some signs of hope, but I’m not really keen on silver or I should say, I believe silver will lag in reference to gold as the market is falling the way it has shown just how brittle it can be.

While the gold market did pull back a little bit in the early hours of Friday, silver really got hammered at one point in time, the XAG/USD pair was down about 2%. Now it looks like we are at least trying to hang on to the $30 level as support, which makes a certain amount of sense considering that it’s a large round psychologically significant figure and an area where I would imagine a lot of options traders are watching. If we were to break down below there, then it opens up the possibility of a move down to the 200 day EMA currently hanging around the $29.30 level or so.

On the Upside

To the upside, if we can break above the $31 level, I think that opens up the possibility of silver to go much higher, probably to $32.50. The previous uptrend line has offered resistance. So that dissects right about where I think the buy and sell orders probably end up being, especially around that $31 level. So it all ties together for a market that’s very noisy but still trying to figure out what to do with the longer term. I think we’re probably neutral to somewhat negative right now. That being said, the $31 level and the double bottom down at $28.75, I think are the two main points to watch if we break above or below that should give you a heads up as to which direction we are going.

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Created on January 20, 2025

• The West Texas Intermediate or Light Sweet Crude market has been somewhat noisy during the trading session on Friday as we continue to bounce around an area that quite frankly is going to end up being more or less consolidation and resistance.
• After all, the $78.50 level has been resistance in the past, so it does make a certain amount of sense that there’s market memory here, causing a bit of a headache.

I do think at this point, you probably see a lot of volatility and perhaps even a bit of a pullback. That pullback might be a nice buying opportunity, especially if we drop towards the $75 level, as the 200-day EMA is racing towards that region.

Alternatively…

On the other hand, if we break above the $80.56 level, then it’s likely that the crude oil markets will continue to go higher. Nonetheless, this is a market that I do think you’re looking for value to take advantage of and it makes quite a bit of sense that we would see oil slightly positive due to concerns about supply coming out of places like Russia and the possibility of sanctions against Iran now that the Trump administration is taking over.

But at the end of the day, I think there’s also the idea that central banks around the world cutting rates will probably continue to spur demand as well. I do think ultimately pullbacks though get bought into and those are probably the entry points that you’re looking for as chasing the move all the way up here has been a bit risky as oil shot straight up in the air over the last couple of weeks to get to this region. In other words, we have to work off some of that inertia that has been expended. Ultimately, I like finding value on dips in this bullish market.

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Natural gas price surrendered to the stability of the bullish channel’s resistance line at 4.360$ on last Friday to force it to postpone the bullish rally and form temporary correctional rebound to settle near 3.800$.

This correctional decline won’t affect the main bullish track due to the frequent stability above the bullish channel’s support line at 3.610$, also, stochastic reach to the oversold areas will increase the chances of gathering the positive momentum to assist to form some bullish waves that might target 4.030$ level soon, followed by reaching the mentioned resistance line.

The expected trading range for today is between 3.800$ and 4.030$

Trend forecast: Bullish

Ethereum price (ETHUSD) bounced downwards strongly after touching 3425.50$, to test the key support at 3222.00$ by today’s open, noticing that this level consolidates against the negative pressure and push the price to rise again, to head towards resuming the expected bullish trend for the upcoming period, waiting to visit 3425.50$ again, noting that breaching it will push the price to achieve additional gains that start at 3500.00$ and reach 3680.00$ on the near-term basis.

On the other hand, we should note that breaking 3222.00$ will stop the expected bullish trend and put the price under additional negative pressure that its next target reaches 3017.30$.

The expected trading range for today is between 3140.00$ support and 3425.00$ resistance.

Trend forecast: Bullish

The NZDUSD price continues to fluctuate around the EMA50, keeping its consolidation below the bearish channel’s resistance line, thus, the bearish trend still valid for the upcoming period, waiting to get negative motive that assist to push the price to head towards our main targets that start at 0.5540$ and extend to 0.5450$.

On the other hand, we should note that breaching 0.5610$ will stop the bearish wave and push the price to start bullish correction on the intraday basis.

The expected trading range for today is between 0.5550$ support and 0.5650$ resistance

Trend forecast: Bearish

• Gold price cracks $2,700 early Monday, braces for Trump’s inauguration.
• The US Dollar weakens amid market optimism on easing Middle East tensions.
• Gold traders will continue to buy the dips amid a bullish daily technical setup.

Gold price has extended its corrective decline from monthly highs of $2,725 into early Monday. Traders will continue to cash in on their Gold-long positions heading into US President-elect Donald Trump’s inauguration and amid a Martin Luther King Jr. Day holiday in the US.

Gold price risks volatile trading  

Alongside profit-taking, several other factors remain at work and contribute to the latest leg down in Gold price, primarily the easing of geopolitical tensions in the Middle East. A 15-month-long relentless war between Israel and Hamas culminated in a ceasefire on Sunday as hundreds of trucks carrying aid entered Gaza on the first day.

In the first phase of the ceasefire deal, the Palestinian militant group released the first three Israeli women hostages in exchange for 90 Palestinian prisoners and detainees held by Israelis. Markets cheer the progress on the truce deal, giving up safe havens such as the US Dollar (USD), Gold and US government bonds, which has helped put a mild bid under US Treasury bond yields.

Meanwhile, the Wall Street Journal (WSJ) reported the leaks that Trump is preparing to issue executive orders on immigration, energy and government hiring policies soon while declaring a national emergency on the US-Mexico border within hours of being sworn in on Monday. However, the report on these leaks does not mention tariffs, which could also be one of the reasons behind the risk-on market profile.

Moreover, increased expectations that China will cut the Reserve Requirement Ratio (RRR) before the Lunar New Year, following a no change to its Loan Prime Rate (LPR), add to the upbeat market mood. China is the world’s biggest Gold consumer, and any Chinese stimulus efforts coming through could benefit the non-yielding Gold price. 

However, the Gold price downside could remain cushioned as markets now expect the US Federal Reserve (Fed) to deliver two interest rate cuts this year, in the face of the tame December inflation data released last week. 

Looking ahead, Gold price remains exposed to two-way volatile price action, with the moves likely to be exaggerated by the holiday-thinned market conditions and the speculations surrounding Trump’s ‘day one’ executive orders.

Gold price technical analysis: Daily chart

The short-term technical outlook suggests that Gold price could extend the pullback before fresh buying resurfaces at lower levels.

This month’s symmetrical triangle breakout remains in play, while the yellow metal holds well above all the major daily simple moving averages (SMA), supporting the bullish case.

The 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) holds above the midline, currently near 58, adding credence to the positive Gold price outlook.

Gold price eyes acceptance above the key static resistance at $2,726 to extend the uptrend toward the $2,750 psychological barrier. The next target is aligned at the record high of $2,790.

If the correction gathers strength, Gold price could test the January 15 low of $2,670, below which the 21-day SMA at $2,653 will be threatened.

Additional declines will challenge the powerful support area at $2,745, where the 50-day SMA, 100-SMA and the triangle convergence coincide.

• Gold price declines to around $2,695 in Monday’s early Asian session. 
• The firmer Greenback undermines the USD-denominated Gold price. 
• The uncertainty and elevated geopolitical tensions could boost the Gold price, a traditional safe-haven asset. 

Gold price (XAU/USD) extends its decline to near $2,695 during the early Asian session on Monday. The stronger US Dollar (USD) broadly ahead of President-elect Donald Trump’s inauguration exerts some selling pressure on the yellow metal. 

Analysts expect the gold price to face volatility before Trump takes office. Traders will closely watch the developments surrounding potential trade policies. Any of Trump’s aggressive comments about using trade tariffs to support the US manufacturing sector could lift the Greenback and weigh on the USD-denominated commodity price. 

However, the softer-than-expected US inflation data last week could support the precious metal as it might trigger the speculation of more than a single rate cut from the US Federal Reserve (Fed). Traders await Trump’s inauguration on Monday for fresh catalysts about executive orders that he plans to issue after he is sworn into office. “The uncertainty in regard to the policies that President Trump is going to put in place has been one of the supportive factors for gold,” said David Meger, director of metals trading at High Ridge Futures.

Additionally, the persistent geopolitical tensions in the Middle East and the ongoing Russia-Ukraine conflicts could boost the safe-haven flows, benefiting the Gold price. The Guardian reported that the Russian military took control of two more settlements in eastern Ukraine’s Donetsk region on Saturday, the latest in a series of gains it has reported in its steady advance westward.

Gold, often seen as a companion asset, remains a key influence on silver prices. Gold’s movement near critical resistance levels provided some support for silver sentiment. However, silver’s substantial industrial demand component introduces additional challenges, particularly as global economic uncertainty clouds growth prospects​​.

Market Forecast: Can Silver Gain Momentum?

Silver’s ability to overcome $30.44 will determine the market’s short-term outlook. A breakout above this resistance could drive prices toward $32.33, with potential for further gains if macroeconomic data aligns favorably. Failure to clear this level, however, could see the metal retreat to $28.75. This level could act as a floor, or the trigger point for further losses.

The week ahead presents significant data points, including U.S. manufacturing reports, inflation figures, and Federal Reserve commentary. Traders should prepare for increased volatility, as silver’s dual role as a monetary and industrial asset ensures it remains at the crossroads of economic and geopolitical forces.