Natural Gas Technical Analysis

The natural gas markets have shown quite a bit of upward momentum. But really, at this point in time, I think you have to look at them through the prism of how many rallies do we have left in the winter? Clearly, we’re in one. Now, the question of course will be whether or not we can break to the $4.50 level. If we can break there, then it’s likely that we could see a lot of upward momentum, perhaps to the $5 level. Ultimately, this is a market that I have no interest in shorting whatsoever. So, with that being the case, I’m just looking for dips to buy.

The $4 level should be support as well, but I also think there’s probably even more support at the $3.60 level. Sooner or later, we are going to focus on spring, but we’ve got some time before that. So, I think we’ve got one, maybe two more bounces and shots higher before we turn around and start focusing on winter being gone. The market breaking down below the $3.40 level could of course break things down significantly, but we’re so far away from that right now, it’s not really a concern of mine.

The red metal has broken a two-year losing streak, and tech analysis is turning bullish

• Copper is coming off a winning year after breaking a two-year losing streak.
• China stimulus efforts may help boost demand for the metal.
• U.S. mining is expected to increase, but supply is unlikely to be supported by reduced regulations this year.

Copper 2024: year in review

Copper prices broke a two-year losing streak in 2024 after rising by about 3% following declines of 12% and 8% in 2022 and 2023, respectively.

The red metal performed exceptionally well in the first half of last year, rising above $5 per pound before retreating in the second half of the year, falling back to nearly $4 per pound.

The global economic uncertainty that developed in the second half of last year, particularly in China—the largest copper consumer in the world—dragged on the red metal’s sentiment.

Will 2025 provide more gains?

Copper prices got off to a great start in 2025, rising nearly 5% through the first week of trading. The move came despite a rise in the dollar—which usually works against prices because of the currency’s impact on trade.

However, several developments bode well for the industrial metal’s outlook this year.

The first is that China’s government appears more willing to introduce stimulus measures—both from the fiscal and monetary sides.

China expects a new trade war with the incoming Trump administration. While that will likely be negative for global trade, it may also increase Beijing’s willingness to bolster domestic consumption.

A 5% target for Chinese gross domestic product (GDP) growth remains in place for 2025. Beijing has already introduced several measures to boost consumption, including expanding a subsidized program that allows consumers to trade in goods, such as phones.

China also boosted pay for millions of government workers, with about $20 billion in economic impact from those wage hikes. Beijing also agreed to issue about $409 billion in bonds for 2025, the highest on record.

Meanwhile, smelters in China are expected to continue to increase production this year even as the supply of copper concentrate narrows. The increased production estimates follow lower benchmark prices for copper concentrate, which could help to bolster smelters’ profit margins.

U.S. supply to come too late

The Trump administration appears likely to take measures to make it easier for mining projects to take off. That could include faster permitting and reduced regulations, especially around environmental concerns. That should help boost copper supply, but it won’t come in 2025 because mines take years and sometimes decades to start producing.

That said, demand in the United States is likely to increase, especially if current economic conditions persist and the Federal Reserve cuts interest rates. Still, if the U.S. economy continues to chug along, it could help to support copper prices. The main tailwinds could come from electric vehicles and increased data centers to support artificial intelligence.

Trading copper in 2025

A possible target for copper this year could be $5 per pound, according to several analysts. However, there will likely be considerable volatility along the way. A trade war would have an oversized impact on financial markets, especially assets like copper, which are sensitive to trade and overall economic conditions.

Traders increased their short bets on copper late in 2024, with short positioning now at the highest levels since last summer. Prices are still increasing, which could increase copper prices should the current trajectory hold, forcing traders to close their short positions.

Copper prices made a notable technical move early this month, crossing above the 100-day simple moving average (SMA) on Jan. 10. The 200-day SMA is now being attacked, which could lead to a material improvement in the metal’s technical structure if prices manage to close above. Possible resistance from recent swing highs, notably the November swing high at 4.4930, and the September high at 4.79, could come into play in the coming months.

Thomas Westwater, a tastylive financial writer and analyst, has eight years of markets and trading experience. @fxwestwater

For live daily programming, market news and commentary, visit tastylive or the YouTube channels tastylive (for options traders), and tastyliveTrending for stocks, futures, forex & macro. 

Trade with a better broker, open a tastytrade account today. tastylive, Inc. and tastytrade, Inc. are separate but affiliated companies. 

• Gold price treads water below $2,700 as the US inflation week sets in.
• Trump’s policy uncertainty outweighs strong US NFP-led hawkish Fed bets.
• Gold buyers remain defiant amid a symmetrical triangle breakout, but profit-taking could seep in.

Gold price pauses its four-day uptrend, treading water below $2,700 in Asian trading on Monday. Gold buyers seem to face exhaustion following a relentless rise in the previous week.

Gold price stalls but upside remains intact

The US Dollar (USD) has entered a bullish consolidation phase alongside the US Treasury bond yields, leaving Gold price gyrating in a tight range below the monthly high of $2,698 set on Friday.

However, China’s efforts to stabilize the Chinese Yuan and prop up economic growth lend support to the non-yielding Gold price, keeping its downside attempts capped. Additionally, markets remain wary of the potential trade policies implemented by US President-elect Donald Trump and their impact on inflation and the economy, underpinning the safe-haven appeal of the bright metal.

Furthermore, the ongoing upsurge in WTI oil prices also adds to the inflationary concerns in the Trump 2.0 era, supporting the inflation-hedge Gold price. Oil price shot through the roof on Friday after the US Treasury imposed wider sanctions on Russian oil supply. US sanctions are expected to affect Russian crude exports to top buyers China and India.

In the day ahead, it remains to be seen if Gold price manages to resume the uptrend as traders could resort to profit-taking on their long positions heading toward Wednesday’s US Consumer Price Index (CPI) data release, which holds more relevance after Friday’s stellar Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) report ramped up bets for just one interest rate cut by the US Federal Reserve (Fed) this year.

The Labor Department’s NFP report showed that the US economy created 256,000 jobs in December against November’s 227,000 job gains and the expected 160,000 figure. The Unemployment Rate unexpectedly fell to 4.1% versus a steady reading of 4.2% expected in the reported period.

“Markets have already scaled back expectations for Fed rate cuts to just 27 basis points (bps) for all of 2025, with the terminal level now seen around 4.0% compared to the 3.0% many had hoped for this time last year,” according to Refinitiv’s US Dollar Interest Rate Probabilities.

More so, traders will monitor the demand for physical Gold in India and China for fresh trading impulses. Reuters reported that “Gold discounts in India rose this week as consumers refrained from buying as local prices hit a month’s high.” In China, the world’s top Gold consumer, Gold buying activity seems to have picked as the Year of the Snake draws closer.

Gold price technical analysis: Daily chart

The daily chart shows that despite a Bear Cross in play, Gold buyers remained defiant and flexed their muscles on Friday, extending the symmetrical triangle breakout.

Gold price confirmed an upside break from a month-long symmetrical triangle pattern on January 8, adding credence to the ongoing bullish momentum. Meanwhile, the 21-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) crossed the 100-day SMA from above on a daily closing basis on Thursday, validiting the Bear Cross.

The 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) holds comfortably above the midline, currently near 60.00, backing the case for more upside in Gold price.

Gold price could extend its four-day advance to take out the $2,700 barrier should buyers regain poise.  

The next upside barriers are aligned at the $2,710 round level and the December 12 high of $2,726.

Conversely, strong support is around $2,645, where the 50-day SMA coincides with the triangle resistance.

If that cap is cracked, Gold price will find immediate respite at $2,635, the confluence of the 21-day SMA, the 100-day SMA and the triangle support.

The last line of defense for Gold buyers is seen at the January 6 low of $2,615.

(This story was corrected on January 13 at 6:50 GMT to say that a stellar NFP report ramped up bets for just one interest rate cut by the Fed this year, not a hike.)

• Silver price tumbles to near $30.00 as US bond yields rise after traders pare Fed dovish bets.
• US bond yields surge after the release of the surprisingly upbeat US NFP data for December.
• The overall outlook of the Silver price remains upbeat amid risk-off market sentiment.

Silver price (XAG/USD) falls sharply to near $30.00 after failing to extend its upside above the key hurdle of $30.60 in Monday’s European session. The white metal weakens as the US bond yields strengthens, with market participants reassessing their expectations for the Federal Reserve’s (Fed) monetary policy outlook after the release of the United States (US) Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) data for December.

10-year US Treasury yields post fresh yearly high to near 4.80% as traders have pared Fed dovish bets after the release of the surprisingly upbeat labor market data. Higher yields on interest-bearing assets weigh on non-yielding assets, such as Silver, as they result in higher opportunity costs for them. The US Dollar Index (DXY), which tracks the Greenback’s value against six major currencies, posts a fresh two-year high above 110.00.

According to the CME FedWatch tool, the Fed is expected to keep interest rates unchanged in the current range of 4.25%-4.50% atleast in the next three policy meetings.

Meanwhile, the broader outlook of the Silver price remains firm as the market sentiment is bearish amid uncertainty over the incoming trade policies under the administration of US President-elect Donald Trump. The appeal of non-yielding assets strengthens in a highly uncertain environment.

This week, investors will focus on the US Consumer Price Index (CPI) data for December, which will be published on Wednesday.

Silver technical analysis

Silver price continues to face selling pressure near the 50-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA), which trades near $30.35. The white metal remains below the upward-sloping trendline around $30.50 on a daily timeframe, which is plotted from the February 29 low of $22.30

The 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) oscillates inside the 40.00-60.00 range, suggesting a sideways trend.

Looking down, the September low of $27.75 would act as key support for the Silver price. On the upside, the December 12 high of $32.33 would be the barrier.

Silver daily chart

Crude oil futures reached their highest levels since October earlier this week, and the momentum wasn’t slowing as of Friday morning. WTI and Brent were trading at $74.58 and $77.59 respectively at the time of writing, with traders assessing the interplay of seasonal demand, supply constraints, and mixed inventory data as the week draws to a close. Despite the recent rise in prices, traders remain cautious about balancing tightening supply and uncertain demand signals.

Supply Constraints Drive Upward Pressure

Supply-side factors were critical in shaping crude oil’s price movements this week. OPEC production dropped by 50,000 barrels per day (bpd) in December, largely due to maintenance in the UAE and declining Iranian output. These reductions align with OPEC+’s broader commitment to cut production, ensuring supply remains constrained. Saudi Arabia and Iraq maintained steady production levels, adhering to the cartel’s strategy to limit global availability.

Adding to the supply squeeze, Western sanctions on Russian crude shipments continued to bite. Efforts by the Biden administration to restrict Russian exports, coupled with expectations of a 300,000 bpd decline in Iranian production, amplified concerns over global supply. These geopolitical factors have reinforced support for prices, even as demand uncertainties loom.

Winter Weather Fuels Seasonal Demand

Colder-than-expected weather across the U.S. and Europe has sharply increased demand for heating…

Crude oil futures reached their highest levels since October earlier this week, and the momentum wasn’t slowing as of Friday morning. WTI and Brent were trading at $74.58 and $77.59 respectively at the time of writing, with traders assessing the interplay of seasonal demand, supply constraints, and mixed inventory data as the week draws to a close. Despite the recent rise in prices, traders remain cautious about balancing tightening supply and uncertain demand signals.

Supply Constraints Drive Upward Pressure

Supply-side factors were critical in shaping crude oil’s price movements this week. OPEC production dropped by 50,000 barrels per day (bpd) in December, largely due to maintenance in the UAE and declining Iranian output. These reductions align with OPEC+’s broader commitment to cut production, ensuring supply remains constrained. Saudi Arabia and Iraq maintained steady production levels, adhering to the cartel’s strategy to limit global availability.

Adding to the supply squeeze, Western sanctions on Russian crude shipments continued to bite. Efforts by the Biden administration to restrict Russian exports, coupled with expectations of a 300,000 bpd decline in Iranian production, amplified concerns over global supply. These geopolitical factors have reinforced support for prices, even as demand uncertainties loom.

Winter Weather Fuels Seasonal Demand

Colder-than-expected weather across the U.S. and Europe has sharply increased demand for heating oil. U.S. refineries, operating at their highest capacity since 2018, have worked to meet this surge in consumption. Analysts from JPMorgan forecast global oil demand in January to grow by 1.4 million bpd year-on-year, fueled by heating needs and early Lunar New Year travel in China.

Despite these seasonal gains, economic concerns have dampened optimism. Softer U.S. factory orders and persistent inflationary pressures in Europe, alongside China’s energy policy uncertainties, have raised questions about the sustainability of industrial and refining demand. For instance, China’s higher fuel oil import taxes could limit future consumption growth.

Conflicting Inventory Data Adds Market Complexity

U.S. inventory reports introduced mixed signals into the market. Early data suggested drawdowns in crude stockpiles, providing initial price support. However, the Energy Information Administration (EIA) released official data showing unexpected increases in gasoline and distillate inventories. These builds applied downward pressure on prices midweek, especially as a stronger U.S. dollar made oil more expensive for international buyers.

The dollar’s strength has been a persistent headwind for crude markets, limiting the ability of prices to sustain gains despite supply concerns. Traders are closely monitoring upcoming inventory reports for further clarity on U.S. demand trends.

Saudi Arabia Signals Confidence With Price Hike

In a notable development, Saudi Aramco raised its official selling prices (OSPs) for February shipments to Asia, marking the first price hike in three months. This move reflects Saudi Arabia’s confidence in the region’s demand resilience and aligns with tightening supply conditions in the Middle East driven by sanctions and production cuts.

The decision underscores the kingdom’s bullish view on market fundamentals and its ability to influence regional pricing power. Strong Asian demand and a constrained supply outlook bolster this position, offering potential support for global crude prices.

Weekly Light Crude Oil Futures

Trend Indicator Analysis

The main trend is down but momentum is trending higher. It will change to up on a trade through $77.36. The minor trend is up, this is controlling the momentum. A close below $73.96 on Friday could have a negative impact on momentum next week.

The long-term range is $87.11 to $60.88. The market is currently straddling its 50% level at $74.00. This is a major pivot. Overtaking this level with conviction could send the market soaring with $77.36 the next target.

The intermediate-term range is $60.88 to $81.33. Its retracement zone at $71.10 to $68.69 is support. The retracement zone is new support.

Weekly Technical Forecast

The direction of the Weekly Light Crude Oil Futures market the week ending January 17 is likely to be determined by trader reaction to $74.00.

Bullish Scenario

A sustained move over $74.00 will signal the presence of strong counter-trend buyers. If this creates enough near-term momentum, we could see potential acceleration into the three major tops at $77.36, $79.61, and $81.33 over the near-term.

Bearish Scenario

A failure to sustain a move over 74.00 will indicate that strong sellers are still controlling the price action. It will also confirm that the market is still in “sell the rally” mode. This could drive prices back into the main support zone at $71.10 to $68.69.

Market Outlook: Moderately Bullish with Caution

Heading into Friday and beyond, crude oil prices are poised for modest gains as tightening supply conditions, supported by OPEC+ cuts and geopolitical risks, continue to underpin the market. Seasonal demand and robust refinery activity in the U.S. provide additional tailwinds for prices.

However, traders remain cautious. Inventory builds, global economic uncertainties, and a stronger dollar could temper upside momentum. Any unexpected demand weakness or larger-than-anticipated inventory increases may further cap potential gains.

For now, the market leans cautiously bullish, with supply constraints and seasonal factors providing critical support. Traders will watch for signals from inventory reports and economic data for clearer direction.

Technically, the weekly direction will be determined by trader reaction to the major pivot at $74.00. Bullish over this level, cautiously bearish under it.

• Gold price loses ground to around $2,690 in Monday’s early Asian session.
• The upbeat US job report and surging USD weigh on the Gold price. 
• Trump’s policy uncertainty and geopolitical risks might cap the downside for the precious metal.

Gold price (XAU/USD) trades with mild losses near $2,690 on the stronger US Dollar (USD) broadly during the early Asian session on Monday. However, the safe-haven demand due to uncertainty surrounding the President-elect Donald Trump administration’s policies might help limit the Gold’s losses. 

The stronger-than-expected US employment data on Friday reinforced expectations that the US Federal Reserve (Fed) might not cut interest rates as aggressively this year. This, in turn, weighs on the non-yielding asset. Traders expect the Fed to cut interest rates by just 30 basis points (bps) over the course of this year, compared with cuts worth about 45 bps before the NFP report. 

On the other hand, Trump’s policy risks boosting the Gold price, a traditional safe-haven asset. “Gold is still acting resilient in the face of a much stronger-than-expected jobs report … One of the factors that’s been supporting gold is this uncertainty that we’ve seen going into the (U.S. presidential) inauguration,” said David Meger, director of metals trading at High Ridge Futures.

Additionally, the escalating geopolitical tensions in the Middle East and the ongoing Russia-Ukraine conflict might contribute to the precious metal downside. Israeli strikes continued throughout Gaza, including attacks near Gaza City, Nuseirat, and Bureij. Two attacks were also reported in the Houmin Valley in southern Lebanon, according to Lebanon’s National News Agency.

ABOUT Oil & Natural Gas Corporation

• Industry Oil & Gas Operations
• ISIN INE213A01029
• BSE Code 500312
• NSE Code ONGC

Oil and Natural Gas Corporation Limited is an India-based crude oil and natural gas company. The Company is engaged in exploration, development and production of crude oil, natural gas and value-added products in India and acquisition of oil and gas acreages outside India for exploration, development and production, downstream (Refining and marketing of petroleum products), Petrochemicals, Power Generation, liquefied natural gas (LNG) supply, Pipeline Transportation, special economic zone (SEZ) development, Helicopter services, Manufacturing of Ethanol and Sugar, Green and Renewable energy business. Its segment includes Exploration and Production, and Refining and Marketing. Its geographical segments consist of India, which includes offshore and onshore, and Outside India. Its subsidiaries include Mangalore Refinery and Petrochemicals Limited, Hindustan Petroleum Corporation Limited, ONGC Videsh Limited, Petronet MHB Limited, ONGC Green Limited, and HPCL Biofuels Limited, among others.

Oil & Natural Gas Corporation Management

• Arun Singh Chairman of the Board, Chief Executive Officer
• Vivek Tongaonkar Chief Financial Officer, Director (Finance)
• Rajni Kant Chief Compliance Officer, Company Secretary
• Manish Patil Executive Director, Director (Human Resources)
• Pankaj Kumar Director (Production), Executive Director
• Sushma Rawat Director (Exploration), Executive Director
• Arunangshu Sarkar Executive Director, Director (Strategy, Corporate Affairs, Technology and Field Services )

Egypt Japan price of cà phey to

Coffee prices today December 12, 1 on the world market, at 2025:4 a.m. updated on the Vietnam Commodity Exchange MXV (world coffee prices are continuously updated by MXV, matching world exchanges, the only channel in Vietnam that continuously updates and links to world exchanges).

Coffee prices on the three main coffee futures exchanges ICE Futures Europe, ICE Futures US and B3 Brazil are continuously updated by Y5Cafe during the trading hours of the exchanges. However, on the night of January 11 and the early morning of January 1, 12, all of the above exchanges temporarily suspended trading for the weekend and were updated as follows:

Robusta Coffee Price London 12/1/2025

On the London floor, at 4:30 a.m. on January 12, 1, the price of Robusta coffee was recorded as follows: The delivery price for March 2025 was 3 USD/ton, the delivery price for May 2025 was 4966 USD/ton, the delivery price for July 5 was 2025 USD/ton and September 4879 was 7 USD/ton.

Arabica Coffee Price New York December 12, 1

Similarly, the price of Arabica coffee on the New York floor, the delivery period in March 3 is 2025 cents/lb, the delivery period in May 323.85 is 5 cents/lb, the delivery period in July 2025 is 319.80 cents/lb and the delivery period in September 7 is 2025 cents/lb.

Brazilian Arabica Coffee Price on December 12, 1

The price of Brazilian Arabica coffee also remained unchanged, recorded at USD 3/ton for March 2025 delivery, USD 404.05/ton for May 5 delivery, USD 2025/ton for July 400.00 and USD 7/ton for September 2025.

Robusta coffee traded on the ICE Futures Europe (London exchange) opens at 16:00 and closes at 00:30 (next day) Vietnam time. Arabica coffee traded on the ICE Futures US (New York exchange) opens at 16:15 and closes at 01:30 (next day) Vietnam time. For Arabica coffee traded on the B3 Brazil exchange, it will open from 19:00 – 02:35 (next day) Vietnam time.

Gia Lai people harvest coffee at the end of the 2024-2025 crop year. Photo: Hien Mai

Gthere cà pinternal stable

According to information from Giacaphe.com, at 4:30 a.m. today, January 12, 1, domestic coffee prices stabilized at an average of 2025 VND/kg.

The highest coffee purchase price in the key regions of the Central Highlands was recorded at 119.000 VND/kg. Specifically, today’s coffee price in Dak Lak is 119.000 VND/kg, in Lam Dong is 118.300 VND/kg, in Gia Lai is 118.800 VND/kg and in Dak Nong today is 119.000 VND/kg.

The domestic coffee prices that Giacaphe.com lists every day are calculated based on the prices of two world coffee exchanges combined with continuous surveys from businesses and purchasing agents in key coffee growing areas across the country.

Domestic coffee price list updated at 4:30 a.m. on December 12, 1

The Vietnamese coffee market continues to experience remarkable fluctuations, with an increase in export value but at the same time facing challenges in output and strict requirements from the international market.

Although Vietnam’s coffee output is expected to decline due to the impact of climate change and crop conversion, export value is set to hit a record. In the 2023/2024 crop year, Vietnam will export about 1,46 million tons of coffee, down 12,1% in volume compared to the previous crop year, but the value will reach $5,43 billion, up 33,1%. The average export price will increase sharply to $3.673/ton, nearly 50% higher than in the 2022/2023 crop year.

Climate change, especially drought, has negatively affected coffee production. In addition, farmers’ conversion to higher-value crops such as durian and avocado has also contributed to the reduction in coffee growing areas. In addition, new regulations from the European Union (EU) on anti-deforestation for coffee products have placed higher requirements on environmental protection and traceability, putting more pressure on the Vietnamese coffee industry.

The Vietnamese coffee market is forecast to continue to grow strongly, with an expected size of 763,5 million USD by 2029, corresponding to a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of more than 8% in the period 2024-2029. This increase is driven by a deep coffee consumption culture, the popularity of large coffee chains, and the trend of favoring specialty and organic coffee.

To maintain and develop the market, the Vietnamese coffee industry needs to focus on solutions such as: Stabilizing area and increasing productivity, encouraging farmers to maintain coffee growing area, applying advanced farming techniques and selecting high-quality varieties to increase productivity.

Transform production towards sustainability, apply organic and environmentally friendly coffee production models to meet the green standards of the international market. Invest in technology and product quality, improve coffee quality, especially high-value varieties such as Arabica and invest in processing technology to increase product value.

With appropriate strategies, the Vietnamese coffee industry can continue to affirm its position in the world market, while ensuring sustainable development in the future.

Gold Technical Forecast: XAU/USD Weekly Trade Levels

• Gold prices rebound from multi-year trend support- marks second weekly advance
• XAU/USD rally within striking distance of key resistance- U.S. CPI on tap next week
• Resistance 2736/47 (key), 2804, 2900– Support 2607, 2532, 2450/82 (key)

Gold prices closed a fourth consecutive daily advance on Friday with the post-NFP rally posting a weekly advance of nearly 1.9%. A rebound off slope support is attempting to mark resumption of the broader uptrend with key resistance now in view. Battle lines drawn on the XAU/USD weekly technical chart.

Review my latest Weekly Strategy Webinar for an in-depth breakdown of this gold setup and more. Join live on Monday’s at 8:30am EST.

Gold Price Chart – XAU/USD Weekly

Chart Prepared by Michael Boutros, Sr. Technical Strategist; XAU/USD on TradingView

Technical Outlook: In my last Gold Weekly Price Forecast we noted that the XAU/USD was, “trading into a multi-year slope support into the start of the December and the focus is on a reaction off the median-line early in the month. From a trading standpoint, the focus remains on a breakout of the 2607-2736 range for near-term directional guidance.” A two-week advance has now rallied more than 4.4% off the December lows with a rebound off the median-line now threatening a stretch towards uptrend resistance.

The focus is on the record high-week close / 2024 high-close at 2736/47– a breach / close above this threshold is needed to mark uptrend resumption towards subsequent resistance objectives at the 2.618% extension of the 2022 range-break at 2804 and the 2900. The next major technical confluence is eyed at 3000/31– a region defined by the 2.272% extension of the 2011 decline and the 1.618% extension of the 2022 advance. Look for a larger reaction there IF reached.

Initial weekly support rests with the median-line and is backed closely by the 61.8% retracement at 2607– a break / weekly close below this threshold would suggest a larger correction is underway within the broader uptrend with initial support objectives seen at the August high at 2531 and 2450/82– a region defined by the April swing high and the 38.2% retracement of the 2024 trading range. We will reserve this threshold as our bullish invalidation level and losses would need to be limited to this slope for the late-2023 uptrend to remain viable.

Bottom line: Gold has rebounded off uptrend support into the start of the month with the advance now within striking distance of pivotal resistance. From a trading standpoint, look to reduce portions of long-exposure / raise protective stops on a stretch towards 2736- losses should be limited the median-line IF price is heading higher on this stretch with a breach above the high-close needed to mark uptrend resumption.

Keep in mind we get the release of key US inflation data next week with the Consumer Price Index (CPI) on tap Wednesday. Stay nimble into the release and watch the weekly closes here for guidance. Review my latest Gold Short-term Outlook for a closer look at the near-term XAU/USD technical trade levels.

Key US Economic Data Releases

Economic Calendar – latest economic developments and upcoming event risk.

Active Weekly Technical Charts

— Written by Michael Boutros, Sr Technical Strategist with FOREX.com

Follow Michael on X @MBForex

Gold Technical Forecast: XAU/USD Weekly Trade Levels

• Gold prices rebound from multi-year trend support- marks second weekly advance
• XAU/USD rally within striking distance of key resistance- U.S. CPI on tap next week
• Resistance 2736/47 (key), 2804, 2900– Support 2607, 2532, 2450/82 (key)

Gold prices closed a fourth consecutive daily advance on Friday with the post-NFP rally posting a weekly advance of nearly 1.9%. A rebound off slope support is attempting to mark resumption of the broader uptrend with key resistance now in view. Battle lines drawn on the XAU/USD weekly technical chart.

Review my latest Weekly Strategy Webinar for an in-depth breakdown of this gold setup and more. Join live on Monday’s at 8:30am EST.

Gold Price Chart – XAU/USD Weekly

Chart Prepared by Michael Boutros, Sr. Technical Strategist; XAU/USD on TradingView

Technical Outlook: In my last Gold Weekly Price Forecast we noted that the XAU/USD was, “trading into a multi-year slope support into the start of the December and the focus is on a reaction off the median-line early in the month. From a trading standpoint, the focus remains on a breakout of the 2607-2736 range for near-term directional guidance.” A two-week advance has now rallied more than 4.4% off the December lows with a rebound off the median-line now threatening a stretch towards uptrend resistance.

The focus is on the record high-week close / 2024 high-close at 2736/47– a breach / close above this threshold is needed to mark uptrend resumption towards subsequent resistance objectives at the 2.618% extension of the 2022 range-break at 2804 and the 2900. The next major technical confluence is eyed at 3000/31– a region defined by the 2.272% extension of the 2011 decline and the 1.618% extension of the 2022 advance. Look for a larger reaction there IF reached.

Initial weekly support rests with the median-line and is backed closely by the 61.8% retracement at 2607– a break / weekly close below this threshold would suggest a larger correction is underway within the broader uptrend with initial support objectives seen at the August high at 2531 and 2450/82– a region defined by the April swing high and the 38.2% retracement of the 2024 trading range. We will reserve this threshold as our bullish invalidation level and losses would need to be limited to this slope for the late-2023 uptrend to remain viable.

Bottom line: Gold has rebounded off uptrend support into the start of the month with the advance now within striking distance of pivotal resistance. From a trading standpoint, look to reduce portions of long-exposure / raise protective stops on a stretch towards 2736- losses should be limited the median-line IF price is heading higher on this stretch with a breach above the high-close needed to mark uptrend resumption.

Keep in mind we get the release of key US inflation data next week with the Consumer Price Index (CPI) on tap Wednesday. Stay nimble into the release and watch the weekly closes here for guidance. Review my latest Gold Short-term Outlook for a closer look at the near-term XAU/USD technical trade levels.

Key US Economic Data Releases

Economic Calendar – latest economic developments and upcoming event risk.

Active Weekly Technical Charts

— Written by Michael Boutros, Sr Technical Strategist with FOREX.com

Follow Michael on X @MBForex