Gold Technical Forecast: XAU/USD Weekly Trade Levels

• Gold prices rebound from multi-year trend support- marks second weekly advance
• XAU/USD rally within striking distance of key resistance- U.S. CPI on tap next week
• Resistance 2736/47 (key), 2804, 2900– Support 2607, 2532, 2450/82 (key)

Gold prices closed a fourth consecutive daily advance on Friday with the post-NFP rally posting a weekly advance of nearly 1.9%. A rebound off slope support is attempting to mark resumption of the broader uptrend with key resistance now in view. Battle lines drawn on the XAU/USD weekly technical chart.

Review my latest Weekly Strategy Webinar for an in-depth breakdown of this gold setup and more. Join live on Monday’s at 8:30am EST.

Gold Price Chart – XAU/USD Weekly

Chart Prepared by Michael Boutros, Sr. Technical Strategist; XAU/USD on TradingView

Technical Outlook: In my last Gold Weekly Price Forecast we noted that the XAU/USD was, “trading into a multi-year slope support into the start of the December and the focus is on a reaction off the median-line early in the month. From a trading standpoint, the focus remains on a breakout of the 2607-2736 range for near-term directional guidance.” A two-week advance has now rallied more than 4.4% off the December lows with a rebound off the median-line now threatening a stretch towards uptrend resistance.

The focus is on the record high-week close / 2024 high-close at 2736/47– a breach / close above this threshold is needed to mark uptrend resumption towards subsequent resistance objectives at the 2.618% extension of the 2022 range-break at 2804 and the 2900. The next major technical confluence is eyed at 3000/31– a region defined by the 2.272% extension of the 2011 decline and the 1.618% extension of the 2022 advance. Look for a larger reaction there IF reached.

Initial weekly support rests with the median-line and is backed closely by the 61.8% retracement at 2607– a break / weekly close below this threshold would suggest a larger correction is underway within the broader uptrend with initial support objectives seen at the August high at 2531 and 2450/82– a region defined by the April swing high and the 38.2% retracement of the 2024 trading range. We will reserve this threshold as our bullish invalidation level and losses would need to be limited to this slope for the late-2023 uptrend to remain viable.

Bottom line: Gold has rebounded off uptrend support into the start of the month with the advance now within striking distance of pivotal resistance. From a trading standpoint, look to reduce portions of long-exposure / raise protective stops on a stretch towards 2736- losses should be limited the median-line IF price is heading higher on this stretch with a breach above the high-close needed to mark uptrend resumption.

Keep in mind we get the release of key US inflation data next week with the Consumer Price Index (CPI) on tap Wednesday. Stay nimble into the release and watch the weekly closes here for guidance. Review my latest Gold Short-term Outlook for a closer look at the near-term XAU/USD technical trade levels.

Key US Economic Data Releases

Economic Calendar – latest economic developments and upcoming event risk.

Active Weekly Technical Charts

— Written by Michael Boutros, Sr Technical Strategist with FOREX.com

Follow Michael on X @MBForex

Gold Technical Forecast: XAU/USD Weekly Trade Levels

• Gold prices rebound from multi-year trend support- marks second weekly advance
• XAU/USD rally within striking distance of key resistance- U.S. CPI on tap next week
• Resistance 2736/47 (key), 2804, 2900– Support 2607, 2532, 2450/82 (key)

Gold prices closed a fourth consecutive daily advance on Friday with the post-NFP rally posting a weekly advance of nearly 1.9%. A rebound off slope support is attempting to mark resumption of the broader uptrend with key resistance now in view. Battle lines drawn on the XAU/USD weekly technical chart.

Review my latest Weekly Strategy Webinar for an in-depth breakdown of this gold setup and more. Join live on Monday’s at 8:30am EST.

Gold Price Chart – XAU/USD Weekly

Chart Prepared by Michael Boutros, Sr. Technical Strategist; XAU/USD on TradingView

Technical Outlook: In my last Gold Weekly Price Forecast we noted that the XAU/USD was, “trading into a multi-year slope support into the start of the December and the focus is on a reaction off the median-line early in the month. From a trading standpoint, the focus remains on a breakout of the 2607-2736 range for near-term directional guidance.” A two-week advance has now rallied more than 4.4% off the December lows with a rebound off the median-line now threatening a stretch towards uptrend resistance.

The focus is on the record high-week close / 2024 high-close at 2736/47– a breach / close above this threshold is needed to mark uptrend resumption towards subsequent resistance objectives at the 2.618% extension of the 2022 range-break at 2804 and the 2900. The next major technical confluence is eyed at 3000/31– a region defined by the 2.272% extension of the 2011 decline and the 1.618% extension of the 2022 advance. Look for a larger reaction there IF reached.

Initial weekly support rests with the median-line and is backed closely by the 61.8% retracement at 2607– a break / weekly close below this threshold would suggest a larger correction is underway within the broader uptrend with initial support objectives seen at the August high at 2531 and 2450/82– a region defined by the April swing high and the 38.2% retracement of the 2024 trading range. We will reserve this threshold as our bullish invalidation level and losses would need to be limited to this slope for the late-2023 uptrend to remain viable.

Bottom line: Gold has rebounded off uptrend support into the start of the month with the advance now within striking distance of pivotal resistance. From a trading standpoint, look to reduce portions of long-exposure / raise protective stops on a stretch towards 2736- losses should be limited the median-line IF price is heading higher on this stretch with a breach above the high-close needed to mark uptrend resumption.

Keep in mind we get the release of key US inflation data next week with the Consumer Price Index (CPI) on tap Wednesday. Stay nimble into the release and watch the weekly closes here for guidance. Review my latest Gold Short-term Outlook for a closer look at the near-term XAU/USD technical trade levels.

Key US Economic Data Releases

Economic Calendar – latest economic developments and upcoming event risk.

Active Weekly Technical Charts

— Written by Michael Boutros, Sr Technical Strategist with FOREX.com

Follow Michael on X @MBForex

• Silver climbs 0.80% to $30.35, outstripping concerns over U.S. inflation, Fed scrutiny.
• Technical hurdle at 50-day SMA of $30.42; breach could push silver to $30.80.
• Downside risks if silver drops below $30.00, key support at 200-day SMA, lows near $28.78.

Silver Price rises for the seven straight day putting aside the jump in US Treasury bond yields and the US Dollar, after a strong US jobs report calmed Federal Reserve officials about the employment situation in the US. Nevertheless, the evolution on inflation seems to be stalled, gathering some attention of Fed oficials. The XAG/USD trades at $30.35 up over 0.80%.

XAG/USD Price Forecast: Technical outlook

Silver continues to trend higher, advancing steadily above the $30.00 figure for the latest fhree trading days, boosted by buyers emerging at crucial support found at the 200-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) at $29.93. However, they are struggling with stir resistance at the 50-day SMA at $30.42, which has kept prices from reaching the 100-day SMA at $30.80.

If bulls clear those levels, that will clear the path to challenge $31.00 and expose the next cycle high seen at $32.32, December’s 12 peak.

Conversely, if XAG/USD slides beneath $30.00, the 200-day SMA emerges as bulls’ first line of defense. A breach of that level, could drive Silver’s price towards the January 6 low of $29.41, ahead of the December 31 low of $28.78.

XAG/USD Price Chart – Daily

Strong Weekly Performance

Nevertheless, the current rally is occurring inside last week’s price range. It shows a long red candle with a weak close near the lows of the week. This week’s bullish price action counters some of last week’s bearish price action and shows strength. But since an inside week is a form of consolidation on that time scale, trading could proceed in a choppy fashion for a while longer. At least that seems to be a risk. A new weekly high closing price this week will go a long way towards further confirming bullish daily signals.

4.20 High May be Challenged

The price structure of higher swing highs and higher swing lows remains intact for the bull trend. Recent bullish signals indicate a possible challenge to resistance around the current trend high of 4.20. If upward momentum can be maintained, then the 4.20 high could be exceeded. A rising parallel trend channel defines the vibration of price in the larger bull trend that began from the 2024 low of 1.55.

The current shorter-term uptrend, that began from the October swing low, defines a smaller internal trend within a large uptrend price pattern. Since support was successfully tested around the internal uptrend line and 20-Day MA, the road may be clear for the larger bullish pattern to exert its influence. However, gold could go to a new trend high yet still find resistance around the top channel line.

Long-Term Patterns are Bullish

In the big picture, gold triggered another bullish reversal of the long-term downtrend on a rally above the October 2023 swing high of 3.64 recently. That breakout followed an earlier bull breakout of a large symmetrical triangle pattern. So, the current short-term advance is supported by the larger bullish price patterns.

For a look at all of today’s economic events, check out our economic calendar.

• Silver price moves higher to near $31.30, exhibiting a strong performance ahead of the US NFP data for December.
• The FOMC minutes signaled that policymakers are worried about a slowdown in the US disinflation trend.
• US President-elect Donald Trump-led volatility keeps the outlook of precious metals intact.

Silver price (XAG/USD) gains to near $31.30 in Friday’s European session. The white metal gains ahead of the United States (US) Nonfarm Payroll (NFP) data for December, which will be published at 13:30 GMT. The labor market data will influence market expectations about whether the Federal Reserve (Fed) will continue with its cautious stance on further policy-easing.

The NFP report is expected to show that the US economy added fresh 160K workers in December, lower than 227K in November. The Unemployment Rate is estimated to have remained steady at 4.2%.

Investors will also pay close attention to the Average Hourly Earnings data for December. Being a wage growth measure that drives consumer spending, the Average Hourly Earnings data will provide cues about the inflation outlook. Month-on-month Average Hourly Earnings is expected to have risen at a slower pace of 0.3% from the former release of 0.4%, with annual figures growing steadily by 4%.

The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) minutes for the December policy meeting showed that officials were worried about a slowdown in the progress in inflation towards the Fed’s target of 2%.

Broadly, the Silver price has performed strongly for more than a week as market sentiment remains cautious due to uncertainty over the likely global trade war. Investors remain cautious due to incoming protectionist policies from President-elect Donald Trump, which are expected to promote the business outlook of the US. Historically, Silver performs better in a heightened uncertain environment.

Ahead of the US NFP report, the US Dollar Index (DXY), which gauges Greenback’s value against six major currencies, flattens around 109.15. 10-year US Treasury yields rise to near 4.7%.

Silver technical analysis

Silver price continues to face selling pressure near the upward-sloping trendline around $30.50, which is plotted from the February 29 low of $22.30 on a daily timeframe. The white metal oscillates around the 20-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA), which trades near $30.00.

The 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) moves higher above 50.00. A fresh bullish momentum would come into action if it decisively breaks above 60.00.

Looking down, the September low of $27.75 would act as key support for the Silver price. On the upside, the December 12 high of $32.33 would be the barrier.

Silver daily chart

• Gold price consolidates near the monthly high of $2,678 on US Nonfarm Payrolls Friday.
• Concerns over Trump’s policies offset the US Dollar strength and elevated Treasury bond yields.
• Can US NFP data change the course in Gold price, with a Bear Cross in play?  

Gold price consolidates the weekly gains just below the one-month high of $2,678 set on Thursday as traders eagerly await the US Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) data for placing fresh bets.

All eyes turn to US NFP data for the next Gold price move

Gold price continues to draw support from increased safe-haven demand, which overshadows the persistent strength in the US Dollar (USD) and the US Treasury bond yields. Inflation fears have been stoked due to the potential impact of the incoming immigration and trade policies by US President-elect Donald Trump, boosting the appeal of Gold price as an inflation hedge and a traditional safe-haven asset.

Meanwhile, expectations of fewer interest rate cuts by the US Federal Reserve (Fed) this year and China’s economic concerns keep the sentiment around the USD underpinned as the Greenback hovers near weekly highs against its major currency rivals. US benchmark 10-year Treasury bond yields sit at eight-month highs above 4.68%, somewhat limiting the upside attempts in the non-yielding Gold price.

Markets also remain risk-averse and refrain from placing any directional bets on the bright metal amid a typical pre-NFP caution. The US economy is expected to create 160K jobs in December after adding 227K jobs in November. The Unemployment Rate and the Average Hourly Earnings will likely remain steady at 4.2% and 4%, respectively, in the reported period.

 A weaker-than-expected headline NFP print is likely to bring back expectations of aggressive Fed rate cuts on the table, triggering a broad US Dollar correction while adding extra legs to the ongoing Gold price uptrend. Conversely, an upside surprise in the NFP and wage inflation data could ramp up hawkish Fed bets, spelling doom for Gold price.

Further, markets could also resort to profit-taking on Gold longs ahead of next week’s US Consumer Price Index (CPI) data. However, speculations surrounding Trump’s policies could continue to drive markets, acting as a major tailwind for Gold price heading into the weekend.

Gold price technical analysis: Daily chart

The daily chart shows that the 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) holds comfortably above the midline, currently near 57.50, justifying the ongoing upside in Gold price. Additionally, Gold price closed Tuesday above the static resistance at $2,665.

However, buyers are likely to remain cautious as the 21-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) has crossed the 100-day SMA from above on a daily closing basis on Thursday, confirming a Bear Cross.

Amidst conflicting daily technical indicators, the US NFP report could pave the next direction in Gold price.

On a US NFP miss, Gold price could extend its four-day advance and challenge the December 13 high of $2,693 above the four-week high of $2,678.

The next upside barriers are aligned at the $2,700 round level and the December 12 high of $2,726.

Alternatively, strong payrolls could revive Gold sellers, knocking the rates toward the 50-day SMA at $2,643, below which the confluence of the 21-day SMA and the 100-day SMA at $2,633 will be tested.

The line in the sand for Gold buyers is pegged at the January 6 low of $2,615.

• Silver price remains stronger as receives support from safe-haven demand.
• The precious metals like Silver gain support amid uncertainty surrounding inflation and potential Trump tariffs.
• Traders closely monitor the US Nonfarm Payrolls report for further insights into the Federal Reserve’s policy direction.

Silver price (XAG/USD) continues its rally after registering little losses in the previous session, trading around $30.20 per troy ounce during the Asian hours on Friday. Traders are now focused on US labor market data including Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP), for additional insights into the Federal Reserve’s policy direction.

The precious Silver, often considered a safe-haven asset, gains support amid uncertainty surrounding inflation and potential tariffs under President-elect Trump’s administration, as highlighted by the US Federal Reserve (Fed).

However, the upside of the non-yielding metal could be restrained as long-term US bond yields continue climbing on heavy supply. The 10-year stands at 4.68%, while the 30-year stands at 4.92% at the time of writing. This could be attributed to hawkish Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) Minutes from the December meeting.

The latest FOMC Meeting Minutes showed that Fed policymakers expressed concern about inflation and the impact that President-elect Donald Trump’s policies could have. Fed officials indicated they would be moving more slowly on rate reductions because of the uncertainty. Fed officials penciled the expected cuts in 2025 to two from four in the previous estimate at September’s meeting.

Heightened geopolitical tensions have intensified market volatility, driving investors toward safe-haven assets like Silver. On Thursday, four people were killed in shelling incidents in Ukraine, with regional officials attributing one attack to Russia’s military and another to Ukrainian forces. In the Russian-controlled Zaporizhzhia region, two additional fatalities occurred when the town of Kamyanka-Dniprovska came under Ukrainian fire, according to Russia-appointed governor Yevgeny Balitsky, as reported by Reuters.

Price cà phê Robusta greduce myes

Trên sàn London, giá cà phê Robusta ghi nhận đã quay đầu giảm mạnh vào lúc 15 giờ 30 phút ngày January 9, 2025. Cụ thể, mức giảm dao động từ 40 – 63 USD/tấn, với giá giao hàng tháng March 2025 đạt 4956 USD/tấn (giảm 63 USD/tấn). Các kỳ hạn khác cũng ghi nhận mức giảm tương tự, với giá tháng May 2025 là 4877 USD/tấn (giảm 53 USD/tấn), tháng July 2025 là 4795 USD/tấn (giảm 44 USD/tấn) và tháng September 2025 là 4709 USD/tấn (giảm 40 USD/tấn).

Price cà phê Arabica cugh khip kthere kdamp hthanks

Tương tự, giá cà phê Arabica trên sàn New York cũng giảm mạnh, với mức giảm từ 4.05 – 4.50 cent/lb. Giá giao hàng tháng March 2025 là 316.45 cent/lb (giảm 4.05 cent/lb), tháng May 2025 là 313.00 cent/lb (giảm 4.30 cent/lb), tháng July 2025 là 307.95 cent/lb (giảm 4.45 cent/lb), và tháng September 2025 là 301.60 cent/lb (giảm 4.50 cent/lb).

Giá cà phê Arabica từ Brazil cũng ghi nhận sự giảm giá không đều, dao động từ 373.10 – 395.50 USD/tấn. Kỳ giao hàng tháng May 2025 là 395.50 USD/tấn (giảm 0.95 USD/tấn) và kỳ tháng July 2025 là 382.90 USD/tấn (giảm 5.90 USD/tấn).

Gthere cà phê nội địa giảm “sốc”

Theo thông tin từ Giacaphe.com, vào lúc 15 giờ 30 phút hôm nay January 9, 2025, sau 3 phiên tăng liên tiếp trong tuần, thì đã ghi nhận giá giảm sốc vào đầu giờ chiều nay ở mức trung bình 119.100 đồng/kg, giảm -2.300 đồng/kg.

The highest coffee purchase price in key regions of the Central Highlands was recorded at 119.200 VND/kg. Specifically, today’s coffee price at Dak Lak at 119.000 VND/kg, down -2.300 VND/kg; coffee price at Lam Dong has a price of 118.000 VND/kg, down -2.500 VND/kg; coffee price at Gia Lai có mức giá 119.000 đồng/kg, giảm -2.200 đồng/kg và giá cà phê tại Dak Nong Today price is 119.200 VND/kg, down -2.300 VND/kg.

Giá cà phê trong nước mà Giacaphe.com niêm yết mỗi ngày được tính toán dựa trên giá của hai sàn cà phê world kết hợp với việc khảo sát liên tục từ các doanh nghiệp, đại lý thu mua tại các vùng trọng điểm trồng cà phê trên cả nước.

Coffee price prediction tomorrow 10/ 1 / 2025

Việc giá cà phê trong nước giảm mạnh vào đầu giờ chiều nay có thể được lý giải bởi một số yếu tố. Trước hết, sự điều chỉnh giá có thể phản ánh những biến động trong cung và cầu toàn cầu, cũng như tâm lý thị trường sau các phiên tăng liên tiếp.

Cà phê thành phẩm của Công ty TNHH Seed Coffee Đà Lạt. Ảnh: Cẩm Thảo

Ngoài ra, các yếu tố như giá cà phê thế giới, thời tiết, sản lượng thu hoạch và nhu cầu tiêu thụ cũng có thể ảnh hưởng đến giá cà phê trong nước. Nếu tình hình thời tiết thuận lợi và sản lượng cà phê đạt yêu cầu, giá có thể tiếp tục chịu áp lực giảm.

Việc giá cà phê giảm mạnh có thể ảnh hưởng đến tâm lý người nông dân và các doanh nghiệp thu mua. Trong bối cảnh thị trường thế giới biến động, người tiêu dùng và các nhà đầu tư nên theo dõi sát sao các yếu tố tác động đến giá cả trong thời gian tới.

Dự báo cho ngày January 10, 2025, nếu không có thay đổi lớn về các yếu tố cơ bản, giá cà phê có khả năng sẽ tiếp tục ở mức ổn định trong khoảng từ 118.000 đến 119.200 đồng/kg.

Expanding Triangle Forms Near Highs

Nonetheless, today’s low established the bottom of a possible small expanding triangle consolidation formation. It is forming just below resistance around the 200-Day MA, currently at 75.74. This means that crude could rise to new highs but stay within the expanding consolidation range as defined with two lines around the boundary of the pattern that are pointing away from each other.

A resistance zone is identified on the chart from 75.78 to 76.47 due to the confluence of several indicators, including the 200-Day line. Also, there is the bottom boundary line of a large symmetrical triangle pattern cutting through the range.

200-Day MA Key Test of Resistance

Notice that the area around the 200-Day line was last tested as resistance during the upswing that ended with a peak of 79.09 in October last year. That advance ended with a 13.44 point or 20.5% rise in the price of crude oil, when measured from the September low of 65.65. There might be a measured move relationship between the prior advance and the current rally. The current advance saw crude oil rise by 8.36 points or 12.5% as of Wednesday’s high of 75.47. Bullish sentiment began to dominate again following the 67.11 bottom in early-December and that price is used to measure the current advance.

Time Symmetry Established?

The September rally occurred over 20 trading days, while the current advance to yesterday’s was 21 days. That shows time symmetry. Meaning, once the time matches there is the potential for a pivot in the price of crude. That could occur with a retracement or consolidation. It is also interesting to note that the 8.36-point advance is 62.2% of the 13.44-point rally that started in September. That ratio is very close to the 61.8% Fibonacci relationship.

For a look at all of today’s economic events, check out our economic calendar.

XAU/USD Current price: $2,670.71

• Financial markets remained cautious, with safe-haven assets leading the way.
• Market players shift the focus to the US Nonfarm Payrolls report.
• XAU/USD keeps posting higher highs on a daily basis, aims to retest records.

Spot Gold is up for a third consecutive day, hitting $2,678.16 a troy ounce during European trading hours, holding nearby in a thinned American session amid a United States (US) holiday. Speculative interest maintained the cautious stance despite a lighter macroeconomic calendar, resulting in generally stronger safe-haven assets. XAU/USD trades comfortable above $2,670, moving one step closer to record highs in the $2,726 price zone.

Data-wise, US-based employers announced 38,792 cuts in December, a 33% decrease from the 57,727 cuts announced one month prior. According to the Challenger Job Cuts report, it is up 11% from the 34,817 cuts announced in the last month of 2023.  The report adds to encouraging employment-related figures ahead of the Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) report.

The December NFP report is expected to show that the US economy created 160,000 new positions, another solid figure. At the same time, the Unemployment Rate is foreseen to remain steady at 4.2%. If that’s the case, financial markets will likely welcome the headlines that would allow the Federal Reserve’s (Fed) recently adopted tighter path when they meet on January 28-29.

XAU/USD short-term technical outlook

From a technical point of view, XAU/USD’s bullish potential has increased. The pair posted a higher high and a higher low for a third consecutive day while extending gains beyond all its moving averages. The 20 Simple Moving Average (SMA) lacks directional strength at around $2,638, while the 100 SMA nears the shorter one with a bullish slope from below. At the same time technical indicators head firmly north within positive levels, favoring a continued advance.

In the near term, and according to the 4-hour chart, XAU/USD is also poised to extend its advance. The pair currently develops above all its moving averages,  with a bullish 20 SMA advancing beyond the longer ones. The 200 SMA stands directionless at $2,645.98, providing support. As per technical indicators, the Momentum indicator grind higher within positive levels, while the Relative Strength Index (RSI) indicator retreats modestly from near overbought readings, not enough to support a bearish movement.

Support levels: 2,664.10 2,645.90 2,632.70

Resistance levels: 2,678.20 2,692.15 2,726