• Gold price gains traction to near $2,625 in Monday’s early Asian session. 
• Trump’s administration could boost Gold price amid uncertainty. 
• The hawkish stance of the US Fed might cap the upside for the precious metal. 

Gold price (XAU/USD) attracts some buyers to around $2,625 during the early Asian session on Monday. Donald Trump’s tariffs and trade policies could trigger trade conflicts, supporting the yellow metal. However, the outlook for fewer Federal Reserve (Fed) rate cuts in 2025 might cap the upside for Gold price. Trading volume is lighter than usual ahead of the New Year holiday. 

Donald Trump’s potential return to the White House might intensify global trade tensions, fueling geopolitical crises and likely lifting the Gold price. “Trade tensions, potential conflicts, and unpredictable policies under his leadership might drive investors toward gold as a safe-haven asset,” said the managing director of RiddiSiddhi Bullions Limited. 

Additionally, the escalating geopolitical tensions in the Middle East and the ongoing Russia-Ukraine war could boost the Gold price, a traditional safe-haven asset. On Sunday, Israeli forces carried out attacks on two hospitals in northern Gaza, including a strike on the upper floor of al-Wafaa Hospital in Gaza City, which killed at least seven people and critically wounded others.

On the other hand, the rising expectations for fewer Fed rate cuts could underpin the Greenback and exert some selling pressure on the USD-denominated commodity price. A strengthening USD generally weighs on bullion, reducing its appeal to investors seeking non-yielding assets.

Dutch Bros Inc. NYSE: BROS is a thriving drive-thru coffee shop operator and franchisor operating 950 shops across 18 states. While primarily focused on coffee drinks, they also offer teas, smoothies, protein and energy drinks. They prioritize speed and efficiency with an app-driven, drive-thru-focused operating model catering to the on-the-go lifestyles of their customers.

The company reported 29% YoY revenue growth and 2.7% YoY same-store sales (SSS) growth in its third quarter of 2024. The most impressive statistic is the average unit volume (AUV) of $2 million in sales generated within the confines of 950 square feet, which is the average size per shop. 

The retail/wholesale sector company competes with Starbucks Co. NASDAQ: SBUX and Luckin Coffee Inc. OTCMKTS: LKNCY. Starbucks had 40,199 stores (52% company-owned and 48% licensed) at the end of its fiscal Q4 2024, adding 722 net new stores. Dutch Bros plans to add 150 stores in 2024.

Growing the Culture and Management From Within

Like CAVA Group Inc. NYSE: CAVA, Dutch Bros also has a promote-from-within philosophy as they map out the 6 steps to working your way up to a regional operator from Broista. They have 400 operator candidates with an average tenure of more than seven years. Each person in the pipeline is ready to be activated as a market operator. Dutch Bros received over 400,000 applications annually for 11,000 open field positions.

Impressive Q3 Results Indicating Growth In Every Metric

Dutch Bros reported Q3 2024 EPS of 16 cents, beating consensus estimates by 4 cents. Revenue rose 27.9% YoY to $338.2 million, firmly beating $324.97 million consensus estimates. System same-shop sales (SSS) rose 2.7% YoY, and transactions rose 0.8% YoY. Company-operated SSS rose 4% YoY, and transactions grew 2.4%. Dutch Bros opened 38 news shops, including 33 company-operated across 11 states. Company-operated shop gross profit rose to $68.4 million, up from $57 million last year.

Loyalty Program Hitting Records

The Dutch Rewards loyalty program saw the largest number of sign-ups since its launch, with over 1 million thanks to the rollout of its mobile ordering, of which 858 shops have enabled. In Q3, over 67% of total transactions were from Dutch Rewards members. Mobile orders make up 7% of total revenue, leaving much room for growth.

Dutch Bros Raises 2024 Guidance

For the full year 2024, Dutch Bros raised its revenue guidance to $1.255 billion to $1.260 billion, up from previous guidance of $1.215 billion to $1.230 billion, versus $1.23 billion consensus estimates. SSS growth is expected to be around 4.25% YoY, up from low single digits, and SSS growth for Q4 is expected to be between 1% and 2%. The total number of system shop openings in 2024 is expected to be around 150.

Food Is the Next Growth Driver

Dutch Bros sells a very limited number of food items. By limited, we mean four items to be exact: chocolate chip muffin tops, lemon poppyseed muffin tops, orange cranberry muffin tops and granola bars. Just as Starbucks instituted snacks and hot breakfast items to bolster their food sales, Dutch Bros has been experimenting with expanded bakery and sweet and savory hot food items in six shops in Q3. The initial response has been excellent, and the company is looking to roll out more food items in 2026.

Dutch Bros CEO Christine Barone commented, “Based on the early results, it is likely a more robust food venue will play a role for Dutch Bros in the future, and we will continue our testing in the coming quarters. With food making up less than 2% of our sales right now, we clearly see the opportunity.”

BROS Forms a Daily Pennant Pattern

A pennant pattern is a combination of a flagpole representing a parabolic price surge and a symmetrical triangle pattern at the peak comprised of a descending upper trendline and an ascending lower trendline converging at the apex point. A breakout occurs when the stock surges above the upper trendline, and a breakdown occurs if the stock falls below the lower trendline.

BROS formed the daily pennant after peaking at $50.24 following its Q3 earnings beat. The pennant is comprised of lower highs illustrated by the descending upper trendline and higher lows indicated by the ascending lower trendline. The daily anchored VWAP support is at $44.72. The daily RSI has been holding above the 70-band since the earnings price gap. Earnings price gap fill levels are at $43.50 and $35.40. Fibonacci (Fib) pullback support levels are at $43.50, $39.06, $35.40, and $32.08.  

BROS’s average consensus price target is $47.30, implying a 1.4% upside and its highest analyst price target is $55.00. Eight analysts have Buy ratings, and three have Hold ratings on the stock. The stock has a 10.79% short interest.

Actionable Options Strategies: Bullish options investors can buy BROS stock on a deeper pullback using cash-secured puts at the gap fill and Fib pullback support levels.   

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Integrity of Price Structure Retained

Given that today’s low maintained the integrity of the uptrend relative to the trend line, it could be the completion of a pullback that is followed by strength. But what makes it interesting is that a drop below today’s low would question the integrity of the uptrend price structure as the trendline would be broken. Potential support around the 20-Day MA would already be broken prior to the trendline being reached. So, the bullish thesis would be proven wrong if there was a drop below today’s low.

Drop Below Today’s Low Would Be Bearish

A decisive decline below today’s low of 3.29 puts the recent interim swing low at 3.09 and the swing low at 2.98 (C, red) in view of being tested as support. Significantly, potential support around the 50-Day MA is also around the prior low, at 3.02. Together, a potentially significant support zone from 3.09 to 2.98 is identified.

Take note that the breakout from a symmetrical triangle pattern triggered above the 3.02 swing high. A test of that price area as support would be the second test following the triangle breakout and would follow the initial pullback to 2.98. Nonetheless, price behavior will lead the way forward by how it behaves around key price levels.

Strength Returns Above 3.45

The next sign of strength would be with a rally above today’s high of 3.45. That would put natural gas back above the 20-Day prior support line and in place to track higher. Initial resistance may be seen around the prior highs of 3.55 or the 2023 high of 3.64.

A long-term bullish signal was triggered only recently in natural gas as it broke out above the top of the triangle pattern at 3.02 on November 20. That advance also triggered a continuation of the rising trend that began from the February trend low. The subsequent rise above the 2023 peak provided additional evidence for the bulls as that rise initiated a longer bullish trend reversal signal.

For a look at all of today’s economic events, check out our economic calendar.

• Silver price drops sharply to near $29.60 as US bond yields rise on expectations that the Fed will follow gradual rate-cut cycle in 2025.
• Heightened geopolitical tensions in Middle East failed to uplift the Silver price.
• The outlook of the Silver price has weakened amid a breakdown of the upward-sloping trendline around $30.00.

Silver price (XAG/USD) falls to near $29.60 in a thin trading volume session following holidays on Christmas and Boxing Day on Friday. The white metal is under pressure even though tensions in the Middle East region between Israel and Iran have escalated.

On Thursday, Israel launched missiles at the Iran-backed Houthis military and bombed Yemini airport. After the air assault, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said in an interview with an Israeli TV station of the Houthis, “We are just getting started with them”. Israel retaliated to last week’s air assault by Iran.

Historically, heightened geopolitical tensions improve the demand for safe-haven assets, such as Silver.

Meanwhile, the US Dollar Index (DXY), which tracks the Greenback’s value against six major currencies, oscillates in a tight range above the key support of 108.00. 10-year US Treasury yields rise to near 4.61%. Higher yields on interest-bearing assets elevate the opportunity cost of non-yielding assets, making them an expensive bet for investors.

US bond yields remain firm on expectations that the Federal Reserve (Fed) will deliver fewer interest rate cuts in 2025. The Fed is expected to slow down the policy-easing cycle amid confidence in the United States (US) economic outlook.

Silver technical analysis

Silver price stays below the upward-sloping trendline, plotted from the February 29 low of $22.30 on a daily timeframe, after a breakdown near $30.00. The white metal wobbles around the 200-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA), suggesting that the longer-term outlook is uncertain.

The 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) rebounds to near 40.00. A fresh bearish momentum would trigger if it fails to break above that level.

Looking down, the September low of $27.75 would act as key support for the Silver price. On the upside, the 50-day EMA around $30.90 would be the barrier.

Silver daily chart

Created on December 27, 2024

• In my daily analysis of the commodity markets, the West Texas Intermediate Crude Oil market has caught my attention.
• The WTI Crude Oil (US Oil) market has been going sideways for some time, and I think this might end up being one of the more interesting trades in the early part of 2025.
• That being said, this is a market that also needs some type of reason to get going.

From a fundamental analysis standpoint, there are concerns about whether or not demand will be strong enough to warrant higher pricing, but I do think eventually demand does pick up. Keep in mind that the central banks around the world continue to loosen monetary policy, and eventually that should have some type of influence on business expenditures. If the economy starts moving again, the first place that you see benefit from it typically will be the crude oil markets, as energy of course is necessary for the economy to get going, especially when you’re talking about international trade.

Technical Analysis

The technical analysis for this crude oil market is fairly neutral at the moment, but it is worth noting that we are hanging around the crucial 50 Day EMA. The $72.50 level above is a significant amount of resistance and breaking above that would obviously be a major victory for the bulls. The 200 Day EMA sits just above there, and I do think that is going to be a bit of an issue. On the other hand, to the downside we have plenty of support near the $67 level, and then again at the $65 level. When you look at the longer-term charts, the $65 level is a major support level going back at least a couple of years. This suggests to me that perhaps we are getting close to bottoming completely, and now we are just waiting for some type of fundamental reason to continue going higher. I think we get that sooner or later, but again, I think this is probably a story for 2025.

In the meantime, I think a lot of traders are just simply buying the dips and taking advantage of “cheap barrels of oil” anytime they get the opportunity. However, I don’t know that many people out there are confident enough to hang onto their long positions, and that might be part of what we are seeing play out on the charts.

Ready to trade the daily crude oil Forex forecast? Here’s a list of some of the best Oil trading platforms to check out. 

Hits New Trend High of 4.01

Natural gas rallied to a new trend high of 4.01 on Thursday and generated another sequential higher daily high and higher low, the sixth day in a row. At the time of this writing, it continues to trade near the lows of the day, which was 3.67.

That is short-term support and if it is broken to the downside a drop to test support around the prior trend high of 3.56 is likely or a test of the 20-Day MA, currently at 3.37. The 20-Day line is a key dynamic support indicator for the near-term bull trend as it was tested and held as support on several days since the October swing low (red). That trend is marked by a rising ABCD pattern (red).

Above 20-Day Line is Bullish

If natural gas can retain a position above the 20-Day line, it has a chance to continue higher as the uptrend lower boundary would be retained. It is interesting to notice that there are several rising trendlines that cross above current price levels at approximately 4.39 and 4.45.

Those levels are within a potential resistance zone that begins around 4.33 to 4.42. That price level is the initial target from the red ABCD pattern shown on the chart. The crossovers also show possible resistance around the price zone. Therefore, it makes sense to expand the target zone to 4.33 to 4.45.

Bullish Outlook Retained

Notice that natural gas could continue to advance higher and stay within the top channel line and internal rising trend line. Together, they generate a potential rising wedge pattern. One possibility to consider is that natural gas could proceed and stay within the boundaries of the pattern to eventually reach the 4.33 target without breaking through either boundary line of the wedge.

For a look at all of today’s economic events, check out our economic calendar.

Flag Breakout Above 71.41

A decisive rally above the top of the flag at 71.41 will trigger a breakout. The prior interim swing high at 71.79 should then easily be exceeded if there is upside momentum. That would put the recent swing high at 73.27 as an initial upside target. However, a breakout of the bull flag would solidify the recent reclaims of the 20-Day and 50-Day MAs and set the stage for improved bullish sentiment. Higher initial targets following a flag breakout include the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement at 74.42 and the 78.6% retracement at 76.47.

Larger Patterns Show Downward Pressure

Stepping back to consider the larger pattern, the fractal nature of the market is shown by the recent small symmetrical triangle consolidation pattern that formed following a larger symmetrical triangle. On an annual basis, crude oil looks likely to close negative for 2024 and at a lower annual closing price than 2023.

This would be the second year in a row that crude ended the year lower than the year before. It reflects the bearish nature of the breakdown from the large symmetrical triangle in September and subsequent bearish small symmetrical triangle. The small triangle is considered potentially bearish since it is contained within a larger downtrend price structure, and it formed below prior support and now resistance that is represented by the lower boundary line of the triangle.

Price volatility has compressed the past couple of months during the consolidation phase. This could set the stage for a spike in volatility if the breakout from the small triangle starts to see greater interest. A bullish breakout of the flag would go a long way towards attracting buyers.

For a look at all of today’s economic events, check out our economic calendar.

Coffee price world jar is fine

Giá cà phê Robusta trên sàn London cập nhật lúc 15 giờ 00 phút ngày December 26, 2024 dao động từ 4754 – 5041 USD/tấn. Cụ thể, kỳ hạn giao hàng tháng March 2025 là 5041 USD/tấn; kỳ hạn giao hàng tháng May 2025 là 4953 USD/tấn; kỳ hạn giao hàng tháng July 2025 là 4858 USD/tấn; kỳ hạn giao hàng tháng September 2025 tăng 4754 USD/tấn.

Tương tự, giá cà phê Arabica trên sàn New York chiều ngày December 26, 2024, cũng dao động từ 307.45 – 328.60 cent/lb. Cụ thể, kỳ hạn giao hàng tháng March 2025 là 328.60 cent/lb; kỳ giao hàng tháng May 2025 là 323.35 cent/lb; kỳ giao hàng tháng July 2025 là 315.95 cent/lb và kỳ giao hàng tháng September 2025 là 307.45 cent/lb.

Giá cà phê Arabica Brazil được cập nhật như sau: Kỳ giao hàng tháng March 2025 là 408.60 USD/tấn; kỳ giao hàng tháng May 2025 là 401.45 USD/tấn; kỳ giao hàng tháng July 2025 là 391.10 USD/tấn và kỳ hạn giao hàng tháng September 2025 là 375.35 USD/tấn.

Giá cà phê trong nước bật tăng

Theo thông tin từ Giacaphe.com, cập nhật giá cà phê lúc 15 giờ 30 phút hôm nay ngày December 26, 2024, giá cà phê trong nước vẫn giữ ở mức 121.500 đồng/kg, tăng +800 đồng/kg so với ngày hôm qua.

Sau khi thu hoạch người dân làm sạch cà phê. Ảnh: Hiền Mai

Giá cà phê cao nhất thu mua ở các vùng trọng điểm của Tây Nguyên được ghi nhận ở mức 121.700 đồng/kg. Trong đó, 3 tỉnh đều có mức tăng +800 đồng/kg (giá cà phê hôm nay tại Dak Lak at 121.500 VND/kg; coffee price at Lam Dong has a price of 121.000 VND/kg; coffee price at Gia Lai hôm nay có mức giá 121.400 đồng/kg). Riêng, giá cà phê tại Dak Nong là 121.700 đồng/kg, tăng +700 đồng/kg so với ngày hôm qua.

The domestic coffee prices that Giacaphe.com lists every day are calculated based on the prices of two world coffee exchanges combined with continuous surveys from businesses and purchasing agents in key coffee growing areas across the country.

Y5Cafe always tries to stay as close as possible to each region, however there will be days when the listed price does not completely match the local coffee purchase price, but Y5Cafe believes that the listed information is a valuable reference source for farmers and coffee purchasing businesses.

Coffee price prediction tomorrow 27/ 12 / 2024

Theo ghi nhận, giá cà phê ngày December 26, 2024 tại khu vực Tây Nguyên dao động từ 120.600 – 121.400 đồng/kg, tăng 700 – 800 đồng/kg so với ngày trước đó.

Dựa trên diễn biến thị trường hiện tại, giới chuyên gia dự đoán giá cà phê trong nước ngày December 27, 2024 sẽ tăng nhẹ từ 100 – 200 đồng/kg. Tuy nhiên, giá cà phê còn phụ thuộc vào nhiều yếu tố như thời tiết, tình hình thu hoạch và biến động tỷ giá.

WTI Crude Oil Technical Analysis

The West Texas Intermediate crude oil market has shown itself to be somewhat positive in the early hours on Tuesday as it looks like we are trying to grind our way toward the $72.50 level again, the $72.50 level is a significant resistance barrier, so I think it does take a little bit of effort to finally get above there, but if and when we do, I think we really start to take off. Over the last several months, we’ve been building a bit of a base in this market, and now the question is, will we get some type of momentum? Short-term pullbacks, for me at least, are going to continue to be buying opportunities.

Brent Crude Oil Technical Analysis

The Brent market, of course, looks very much the same and is testing the crucial 50-day EMA. The 50-day EMA, of course, is an indicator that a lot of people pay attention to. And with that being the case, I suspect it’s probably only a matter of time before we start to see people chase. If we can break above the $76 level, I think that opens up the next leg higher.

Created on December 26, 2024

• During my daily analysis of the commodity markets, the West Texas Intermediate Crude Oil market has shown some strength, and I think you’ve got a situation where you have to pay close attention to liquidity, as it of course will be dropping for the next several days.
• That being said, the technical analysis will end up being somewhat sideways at the moment, but negative over the longer term.

However, I think we’ve got a situation where the market is likely to be very noisy, but I would also point out the fact that the area could be thought of as a potential bottoming region.

After all, the $70 level underneath has been significant support multiple times over several years, and therefore I think we’ve got a situation where the market could very well find its bottom for a bigger move. That being said, short-term pullbacks will more likely than not end up being buying opportunities, which is exactly what I have been doing for a while. However, it’s probably worth noting that it is short-term more than anything else.

Going Forward

The next several days will probably be somewhat thin with volume dropping off during the holidays. With this, the market is likely to continue to see a lot of questions as about whether or not demand will pick up, but it is worth noting the central banks around the world have been cutting rates, and it’s possible that we could see demand pick up if those lower rates start having companies around the world accelerate their production and economic activity, which of course would drive up the use of petroleum as energy is the lifeblood of the overall economy. It’s also worth noting that the United States tends to use more WTI than other countries, so this is more or less going to be a player on the United States and industry in that country picking up. I do believe that every time we pull back, there should be buyers.

Ready to trade the daily crude oil Forex forecast? Here’s a list of some of the best Oil trading platforms to check out.