Bitcoin price (BTCUSD) shows bearish bias to head towards potential test to the key support 95195.00$, which represents one of the next trend keys besides 100000.00$ resistance, and as we mentioned yesterday, the price needs to breach one of these levels to detect its next destination clearly, which makes us continue with our neutrality until now.

Measured Move Targets $68.52

It is interesting to note that a falling measured move completes at $68.52. The first measured decline began from the October swing high. Following that high the price of crude oil dropped by $12.24 or 15.5%. There will be a match in the two declines based on the price change if the $65.52 price target is reached.

Since that potential target is close to the $67.72 target, as well as the lower uptrend line, and bearish momentum is continuing, it seems like a good chance the lower price levels may eventually be reached before the current correction is complete. Moreover, crude oil could continue to fall further until it triggers a bearish breakdown on a drop below the uptrend line initially, with weakness confirmed on a drop below the $67.11 minor swing low from December 6.

78.6% Retracement Could See Support

Despite the potential bearish scenario, if support is seen around the 78.6% retracement area, a bounce could follow. In that situation, potential resistance would be around the 50-Day MA, now at $72.61. That price level is followed by $73.27, which was both support and resistance previously. Further up is the 200-Day MA at $74.83 and the 20-Day MA at $75.69. Keep in mind that the moving averages are dynamic and that the price represented will change.

Overhead Resistance May Stunt Rallies

Be aware that 200-Day MA is angled down and that the 20-Day only recently turned down after rising for approximately 35 trading days. Further, both moving averages are a little below a bottom boundary line for a large symmetrical triangle pattern. Together, these indicators show potentially significant resistance around the 20-Day MA, since it is above the 200-Day line currently.

For a look at all of today’s economic events, check out our economic calendar.

Next Upside Target is $3.51

The first upside target is shown on the chart at $3.51 to $3.52. It starts with the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement and is followed by the 50-Day MA. Note that the price represented by the 50-Day line may change slightly before it is reached. Also, be aware of the internal downtrend line near to today’s price action.

Although it may not provide a clear price to gauge from, it can help as a guide. The next more significant potential resistance zone above the 50-Day line is around the 20-Day MA, currently at $3.67. Notice that the 20-Day line has been falling recently and has entered the price range discussed previously from the $3.64 peak in 2023, and the 50% retracement at $3.67.

Rising ABCD Pattern Points to $3.58

An interim upside target has been added to the chart since as of today there is a higher swing high for the developing ABCD pattern (light blue) starting from the recent $2.99 low (A). The initial target from the patten is $3.58, approximately halfway between the 50-Day and 20-Day MAs. Further up is the 127.2% extended target from the pattern at $3.69. Therefore, that higher price target can be added to the price range around the 20-Day MA.

Wide Range Week Consolidation

Since this week’s price action is contained with a wide range from last week, it would not be surprising to see natural gas continue to slowly advance and fill more of that range. Last week’s range goes from a low of $2.99 to a high of $3.83. Last week’s high marks the next higher potential target area above the $3.69 price level.

For a look at all of today’s economic events, check out our economic calendar.

• Silver retreats from a three-month high, though the downside seems limited.
• The technical setup supports prospects for the emergence of some dip-buying.
• A convincing break below the $31.00 mark would negate the positive outlook.

Silver (XAG/USD) attracts some sellers following an intraday uptick on Thursday and snaps a three-day winning streak to a three-month top, around the $32.55 region touched the previous day. The white metal sticks to its intraday losses and currently trades near the lower end of its daily range, around the $32.00 mark, down 0.75% for the day. 

From a technical perspective, the recent breakout through the $31.00 confluence – comprising the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level of the October-December fall and the 100-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) – was seen as a key trigger for bulls. A subsequent strength beyond the 50% retracement level, around the $31.70-$31.75 region, and positive oscillators on the daily chart validate the constructive setup. 

Hence, any further slide below the $31.75-$31.70 area, or the daily swing low, could be seen as a buying opportunity. This, in turn, should help limit the downside for the XAG/USD near the $31.00 resistance breakpoint, now turned support. A convincing break below the latter, however, could make the XAG/USD vulnerable to accelerate the fall toward the $30.25 support zone en route to the $30.00 psychological mark. 

On the flip side, the $32.55 area, or a multi-month peak touched on Wednesday, now seems to act as an immediate hurdle. Some follow-through buying should allow the XAG/USD to climb further towards reclaiming the $33.00 mark for the first time since early November. The said handle also represents the 61.8% Fibo. level, which if cleared decisively will set the stage for an extension of over a one-month-old uptrend.

Silver daily chart

XAU/USD Current price: $2,853.00

• The Bank of England’s dovish cut helped the US Dollar to retain its recent strength.
• The market mood improved, yet investors are far from optimistic.
• XAU/USD is in a corrective decline that could continue in the near term.

The US Dollar (USD) found some near-term demand on Thursday, resulting in XAU/USD retreating from record highs. The pair trades around $2,850 in the American session after hitting $2,882.35 on Wednesday. An improved market mood adds pressure on the safe-haven metal, albeit speculative interest is far from optimistic.

Trade-war tensions have been put temporarily aside but remain firm in the background as attention has shifted to first-tier events. On the one hand, the United States (US) kept publishing employment-related data ahead of the January Nonfarm Payrolls report scheduled for Friday. The country is expected to have added 170K new jobs in the month, while the Unemployment Rate is expected to hold steady at 4.1%. Employment-related data released ahead of the announcement has been tepid yet far from worrisome.

Additionally, the Bank of England (BoE) announced its monetary policy decision. The Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) trimmed the benchmark interest rates by 25 basis points (bps) to 4.50% as expected, although the dovish surprise came from policymakers, as all nine MPC members voted for a cut, with two of them favoring a 50 bps trim. Additionally, officials upwardly review their near-term inflation perspective while downgrading growth expectations for this year. The dovish tone of the BoE helped the USD maintain its near-term strength.

Looking ahead, however, demand for the bright metal is set to prevail amid continued uncertainty regarding the US tariffs’ plan.

XAU/USD short-term technical outlook

From a technical point of view, the daily chart for XAU/USD shows that the ongoing slide could be seen as corrective. A lower low and a lower high, however, suggest a bearish extension is likely. The same chart shows that technical indicators are retreating from their recent peaks in overbought territory but with limited downward strength and still at extreme levels. At the same time, the bright metal develops above all bullish moving averages, with the 20 Simple Moving Average (SMA) currently at around $2,755.35.

The 4-hour chart anticipates another leg lower, particularly if XAU/USD slides below the intraday low at $2,833.96, although still suggesting declines would remain corrective. The pair is battling to remain above a bullish 20 SMA while the 100 and 200 SMAs head north far below the shorter one. Technical indicators, in the meantime, have corrected extreme overbought conditions and are currently approaching their midlines with firmly bearish slopes.

Support levels: 2,834.00 2,817.10 2,803.50

Resistance levels: 2,862.70 2,883.00 2,900.00 

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• Silver prices surged to a three-month high of $32.38 on Wednesday.
• Safe-haven metals gain ground amid risk-off mood following global trade and economic uncertainties.
• Dollar-denominated Silver gains traction as the USD experiences a technical pullback.

Silver price (XAG/USD) rises for the third successive session, trading around $32.30 per troy ounce, during the European hours on Wednesday. The safe-haven metals like Silver gain ground due to increased risk aversion following global trade and economic uncertainties.

In response to the new 10% US tariff that took effect on Tuesday, China imposed a 15% tariff on US coal and liquefied natural gas (LNG) imports, along with an additional 10% tariff on crude oil, farm equipment, and certain automobiles.

However, traders remain hopeful for a potential resolution between the United States (US) and China, similar to the agreements reached with Mexico and Canada. US President Donald Trump stated on Monday that he expects to speak with China soon but warned, “If we can’t reach a deal with China, the tariffs will be very, very substantial.” However, no further developments have been reported.

Trump, earlier this week, announced a temporary suspension of tariffs on Mexico and Canada after their leaders agreed to deploy 10,000 troops to the US border to combat drug trafficking. The tariffs initially imposed two days earlier—25% on Mexican and Canadian goods have been postponed for at least 30 days.

The dollar-denominated Silver attracts buyers as the US Dollar (USD) goes through a technical downward correction. The US Dollar Index (DXY), which measures the US Dollar’s value against six major currencies, remains under downward pressure for the third successive day, trading around 107.70 at the time of writing. Meanwhile, traders brace for Friday’s US Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) data, which is expected to shape the Federal Reserve’s (Fed) monetary policy direction.

Silver, which does not yield interest, is benefiting from the dovish stance of major central banks. The Bank of Canada (BoC) has halted its quantitative tightening and joined Sweden’s Riksbank in cutting interest rates. Last week, the European Central Bank (ECB) lowered its Deposit Facility Rate by 25 basis points (bps) to 2.75%, while both the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) and the People’s Bank of China (PBoC) have signaled potential rate cuts ahead. Additionally, markets expect the US Federal Reserve (Fed) to implement two rate cuts this year.

The NZDUSD price provides more positive trades after surpassing the EMA50, waiting to test 0.5738$ as a next main target, which represents 23.6% Fibonacci correction level for the entire decline from 0.6377$ to 0.5540$, which means that breaching it will extend the bullish wave to reach 0.5860$ as a next positive station.

• Gold price consolidates recent gains above $2,850 early Thursday, awaits US data, Fedspeak.
• Ebbing trade war fears, USD/JPY sell-off weigh on the US Dollar amid mixed US ISM and ADP data.
• Gold price remains overbought on the daily time frame, risking a pullback in the near term.

Gold price extends its winning streak into a sixth straight day on Thursday, consolidating near record highs of $2,882 set on Wednesday.

Gold price sticks to record rally, with eyes on US jobs data

Sustained US Dollar (USD) weakness alongside the extended correction in the US Treasury bond yields continue to bode well for the non-yielding Gold price. The Greenback bears the brunt of receding fears of a potential global trade war after US President Donald Trump’s pushback on Canada and Mexico for a month while markets look past the US-Sino tariff war, expecting no further escalation.

Additionally, Trump’s plans to end the Israel-Hamas geopolitical conflict also provided a ray of hope to markets, diminishing the USD’s safe-haven appeal. Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and Trump met on Tuesday at the White House and discussed the elimination of Hamas, Iran strategy and renewed Israel-Saudi normalization.

Furthermore, expectations of policy divergence between the US Federal Reserve (Fed) and the Bank of Japan (BoJ) drive the Japanese Yen to near two-month highs against the US Dollar, dragging USD/JPY sharply lower. The USD/JPY weakness remains a drag on the Greenback, allowing Gold price to maintain its buoyant tone.

According to the LSEG data, a quarter-point Fed cut is fully priced for July, with markets expecting 46.3 percentage points of cuts by the December meeting. Meanwhile, markets have priced in around 94.8% odds for a quarter-point hike by September.

With trade tensions in the back seat for now, attention turns to Friday’s critical US Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) data, which could offer cues on the Fed’s next policy move. The NFP data could emerge as the main market driver for Gold price heading into next week’s US Consumer Price Index (CPI) release.

In the meantime, the US weekly Jobless Claims and Preliminary Unit Labor Cost will be eyed alongside the Fedspeak for some trading incentives in Gold price. Any fresh developments surrounding Trump’s tariff plans will likely temper the Gold price rally, reviving the haven demand for the USD.

Gold price technical analysis: Daily chart

The daily chart continues to caution Gold buyers as the 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) remains in an extremely overbought zone, currently near 76.50.

That said, Gold price risks a pullback on a sustained move below the $2.850 level.

If the selling pressure intensifies, Gold price could challenge the $2,800 round level, below which the February 3 low of $2,772 will be tested.

However, the 50-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) and 100-day SMA Bull Cross keep hopes alive for buyers, while Gold price also managed to close Wednesday above the $2,850 psychological barrier.

Gold buyers must take out the record highs of $2,882 for further upside. The next relevant target is aligned at the $3,000 round level.

Ethereum price (ETHUSD) got positive close above 2764.75$, noticing that the recent trades are confined within bullish pennant pattern that appears on the chart, which means that breaching 2825.00$ will activate the positive effect of this pattern and push the price to achieve our first waited target at 3017.30$.

Therefore, we will continue to suggest the bullish trend for the upcoming period, noting that breaking 2764.75$ followed by 2715.00$ levels will stop the bullish wave and push the price to turn to decline.