• Silver price retreats from Monday’s monthly high of $32.28.
• The price of the grey metal found support following news of potential economic stimulus measures from China.
• The stronger US Dollar weighs on demand for dollar-denominated Silver.

Silver price (XAG/USD) retreats from $32.00 per troy ounce during the European session on Tuesday. However, the price of the grey metal received support from news of potential economic stimulus from China.

Chinese policymakers, through the Politburo, outlined plans for a “moderately loose” monetary policy and a “more proactive” fiscal stimulus for the coming year. This marks a shift from the cautious approach of the past decade and has boosted the demand outlook for metals in the world’s largest consumer of raw materials.

Chinese President Xi Jinping stated on Tuesday, “China has full confidence in achieving this year’s economic target.” He emphasized that China will continue to serve as the largest engine of global economic growth and asserted that there would be no winners in tariff wars, trade wars, or tech wars.

Silver prices also benefited from growing expectations that the US Federal Reserve (Fed) will cut interest rates again this month. Traders are now pricing in nearly an 89.5% chance of Fed rate reductions by 25 basis points on December 18, according to the CME FedWatch Tool.

However, the strengthening of the US Dollar (USD) is making dollar-denominated Silver less affordable for buyers with foreign currencies, dampening its demand. Trades adopt caution ahead of the US Consumer Price Index (CPI) data scheduled to be released on Wednesday.

Coffee price world

Early in the morning of 28/11 (Vietnam time), on the London floor, the price of Robusta coffee futures for monthly delivery November 2024 was at 5.533 USD/ton, up 358 USD/ton compared to yesterday. The monthly delivery term January 2025 increased 382 USD/ton, trading at 5.496 USD/ton.

Arabica coffee prices on the New York floor for monthly delivery December 2024 traded at 323 cents/lb, up 15 cents/lb compared to yesterday’s trading level. For monthly delivery March 2025, trading was at 320 cents/lb, up 14 cents/lb.

Coffee prices in the country

Domestic coffee prices today also increased across localities, trading at 123.500 – 124.100 VND/kg.

Specifically, in the province Dak Lak, today’s coffee price is purchased at 124.000 VND/kg, an increase of 2.400 VND/kg compared to yesterday.

At Lam Dong, today’s coffee price was purchased at 123.500 VND/kg, an increase of 2.500 VND/kg compared to the previous trading session.

At Gia Lai, today’s coffee price is trading at 123.900 VND/kg, up 2.600 VND/kg.

Coffee prices in the province Dak Nong Today recorded an increase of 2.100 VND/kg, purchased at 124.100 VND/kg.

Global coffee prices continued their strong upward trend, reflecting deep concerns about future supply. Specifically, Arabica coffee prices increased by 1,33% to a 27-year high, while Robusta prices also increased by 1,27%, approaching the threshold of 5.200 USD/ton.

Rainfall in Minas Gerais, Brazil’s largest coffee-growing state, was below historical average last week, adding to supply concerns there. Somar Meteorologia reported just 6 mm of rainfall in Minas Gerais last week, or 10% of the historical average.

The low rainfall has raised concerns that coffee plants will not be able to fully recover and develop, leading to a sharp drop in output compared to the current crop. Previously, Brazil’s main coffee growing region experienced a prolonged period of historic drought, causing analysts to simultaneously reduce their forecasts for coffee production in the 2025-2026 crop year as well as the 2024-2025 crop year.  

The US Department of Agriculture (USDA) Brazil office estimates the country’s coffee production for the 2024-2025 crop year at 66,4 million 60-kg bags, down 3,5 million bags from the previous forecast. The total production decline is mainly due to a decline in Arabica coffee as the growing region faces harsh weather conditions during the flowering and bean development stages.

In addition, exports in the 2024-2025 crop year are estimated to decrease by 5% compared to the previous forecast and 2,5 million bags lower than the previous crop year, to 44,25 million bags. At the same time, ending inventories in the 2024-2025 crop year are down 65% compared to the forecast of USDA headquarters, to 1,24 million bags, and ending inventories in the 2023-2024 crop year are also cut from 2,88 million bags to 1,68 million bags. 

Regarding the long-term outlook, consulting firm Hedgepoint in its latest global market report forecasts that Brazil’s coffee output in the 2025-2026 crop year will only reach about 65,2 million bags, of which Arabica coffee output is expected to be at 42,6 million bags, down 1,4% compared to the previous crop.

Thanh Lam

• Gold price consolidates the previous rebound above $2,660 early Tuesday.       
• The US Dollar catches fresh haven demand while US Treasury bond yields stall recovery.
• Daily RSI recaptures 50 as Gold price eyes acceptance above 50-day SMA ahead of US CPI.

Gold’s price builds on the previous rebound near $2,670 in Tuesday’s Asian trades even as the US Dollar (USD) sticks to its recovery mode, awaiting US Consumer Price Index (CPI) data on Wednesday for fresh directional impetus.

Gold price capitalizes on geopolitics and China optimism

Gold price takes advantage of a pause in the US Treasury yields upswing and expectations of more stimulus coming from China following weak inflation data on Monday. China’s CPI missed expectations in November, rising by 0.2% year on year (YoY), down from a 0.3% increase in October.

Additionally, rising Middle East geopolitical tensions, in the face of the sudden collapse of the Syrian government over the weekend, keep the haven demand for Gold price alive and kicking. Syrian rebels seized the capital, Damascus, ousting President Bashar al-Assad, who fled to Russia with his family seeking asylum.

According to Bloomberg, the leader of the Syrian rebel group, Mohammed Al Bashir, is set to form a transitional administration to “avoid slipping into chaos”.

On Monday, Gold price staged a decent comeback from eight-day lows of $2,613 as Middle East geopolitical tensions offset the renewed upside in the US Dollar and the US Treasury bond yields across the curve. US Treasury bond yields rebound was led by the anticipation of stubbornly high US inflation data, which could ramp up expectations for a hawkish interest rate cut by the US Federal Reserve (Fed) next week.

Markets see an 86% probability of the Fed lowering rates by 25 basis points (bps) next week. Meanwhile, for the January Fed meeting, the odds for another 25 bps rate cut stand at about 22%, the CME Group’s FedWatch Tool shows.

Looking ahead, all eyes remain on Wednesday’s key US inflation test as Gold price could see additional profit-taking following last week’s decline. Traders will likely resort to repositioning in the lead-up to the US CPI showdown.

Meanwhile, geopolitical developments will also be closely eyed in the absence of any top-tier US economic data due later this Tuesday.

Gold price technical analysis: Daily chart

The daily chart shows that the tide has turned in favor of the Gold price as the 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) pierced through the midline for the upside.

Gold price is now attempting to break the recent range to the north, battling with the key 50-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) at $2,668.

Acceptance above the latter on a daily closing basis is critical for providing extra legs to the ongoing Gold price recovery.

The next relevant resistance levels are seen at the $2,700 round level and the November 25  high of $2,721.

Conversely, the 21-day SMA at $2,633 will offer strong support to buyers in case the upside loses momentum.

The previous week’s low of $2,613 will be next on sellers’ radars, below which the 100-day SMA at $2,588 will be threatened.

• Silver price continues to gain ground due to the prevailing bullish bias.
• The primary barrier appears around the upper boundary of the ascending channel at the $32.60 level.
• The nine- and the 14-day EMA at $31.27 and $31.17, respectively, would act as primary supports.

Silver price (XAG/USD) extends its gains for the second day, trading around $32.00 per troy ounce during the Asian hours on Tuesday. The daily chart analysis indicates a bullish bias, with the pair moving upwards within an ascending channel pattern. Additionally, the 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) remains above the 50 mark, further supporting the bullish sentiment.

The XAG/USD pair continues to trade above the nine- and 14-day Exponential Moving Averages (EMA), reinforcing a bullish outlook and signaling to strengthen short-term price momentum. This points to increasing buying interest and raises the likelihood of further price appreciation.

In terms of the upside, the Silver price finds a primary barrier around the upper boundary of the ascending channel at the $32.60 level. A break above this level could reinforce the bullish bias and support the XAG/USD pair to approach its November high at $33.13.

On the downside, the primary support appears at the nine-day EMA at $31.28, followed by the 14-day EMA at $31.17. The lower boundary of the ascending channel at $31.00 level could act as a major support.

A break below the descending channel could weaken the bullish bias and put downward pressure on the price of precious metal to test a “throwback support” at the psychological level of $30.00.

XAG/USD: Daily Chart

XAU/USD Current price: $2,667.29

• The People’s Bank of China resumed Gold buying after a six-month pause.
• United States inflation and central banks’ monetary policy announcements fuel caution.
• XAU/USD recovered its bullish poise, near-term gains limited.

Spot Gold advanced on Monday, trading as high as $2,667.31 a troy ounce during American hours. The bright metal found fresh demand for China after the People’s Bank of China (PBoC) resumed purchasing following a six-month pause. The US Dollar (USD), on the other hand, trades with a soft tone across the FX board as investors gear up for central banks’ announcements and first-tier United States (US) critical data.

The US will publish an update on inflation on Wednesday in the form of the Consumer Price Index (CPI). The Federal Reserve (Fed) prefers to base its decision on the more smoothed Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index, yet with the central bank’s announcement around the corner, market participants will be closely paying attention to the figures.  

Ahead of the Fed, the Bank of Canada (BoC), the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) and the European Central Bank (ECB) will also have monetary policy meetings, while in the Fed’s aftermath, it will be the turn of the Bank of Japan (BoJ) and the Bank of England (BoE).

Meanwhile, Wall Street opened with a sour tone, with the three major indexes trading in the red. Government bond yields, on the other hand, ticked marginally higher.

XAU/USD short-term technical outlook

The XAU/USD pair trades near its intraday high, and technical readings in the daily chart support an upward extension. The pair spent the day above a flat 20 Simple Moving Average (SMA), bouncing sharply from the media, usually a sign of mounting buying interest. At the same time, the 100 and 200 SMAs advance well below the shorter one, recovering their bullish poise. Finally, technical indicators bounced from around their midlines, offering modest upward slopes in line with recent resurgent buying.

In the near term, and according to the 4-hour chart, XAU/USD is also poised to extend gains. Buyers are challenging sellers aligned around a directionless 200 SMA while converging 20 and 100 SMAs provided intraday support. Technical indicators, in the meantime, head north above their midlines, albeit with uneven strength.

Support levels: 2,662.50 2,650.40 2,634.70

Resistance levels: 2,676.30 2,690.65 2,704.35

Precious metals gained ground throughout the European session on Monday and were still holding into the positive heading deeper into the US session. Gold and silver were buoyed by renewed optimism from China. A shift in Beijing’s monetary strategy provided a boost to Chinese stocks and rippled through global markets, lifting commodity prices, including gold. Add geopolitical tensions from the Middle East to Europe, and it’s clear why safe-haven assets like gold saw a recovery. The week ahead, however, brings high-stakes events like interest rate decisions from major central banks and key US inflation data, all set to influence the gold forecast.

China’s stimulus and central bank meetings

China is signalling a more relaxed monetary policy for the coming year, sparking hopes of further stimulus. Such measures could be a game changer for China’s stock market. It remains to be seen if it will help lift consumer confidence to the point that it leads to a rise in gold demand in China. For now, traders are buying gold in anticipation but don’t expect this to provide a lasting support. Support for gold will have to come from other factors, particularly if we hear significantly more dovish tones from other central banks meeting in the next couple of weeks – the ECB and Fed, in particular. As well as the ECB this week, the Bank of Canada and Swiss National Bank are all on deck with policy announcements. Should these institutions lean toward easing more than investors expect for 2025, it might further support gold’s appeal, especially amidst lingering geopolitical uncertainties. However, if we hear less-than-dovish remarks then this may not provide much support, if at all, to gold prices.

Gold traders looking ahead to CPI

Gold prices are stuck in a two-week range despite today’s 1.3% rise so far in the trading session. November marked a turning point with gold retreating from its October highs, ending a nine-month winning streak. This has left many investors adopting a “wait-and-see” approach. With the US Consumer Price Index (CPI) report and the Federal Reserve’s final meeting of the year looming, the gold forecast hinges on these pivotal events. Will gold break out of its consolidation phase, or is a deeper correction on the horizon?

A stronger dollar could weigh on gold

While optimism around China’s stimulus boosted procyclical currencies, the Dollar Index remains near recent highs. A stronger dollar has been a significant headwind for gold, making it pricier for key consumers in China and India. Together, these nations account for over half the global jewellery market. Coupled with a shift toward riskier assets like tech stocks, gold’s allure has taken a hit. Even so, Monday’s recovery hints that gold’s consolidation might be nearing its end—though a confirmed breakout is still needed to reignite momentum.

Technical gold forecast: Key levels to watch

Source: TradingView.com

Gold’s technical outlook looks unclear at this stage and more price action is needed to tip the balance either in the bulls’ or bears’ favour. So, let’s observe price action around some key levels on the gold chart to get a better idea of directional bias:

• Initial resistance at $2668-$2670: marking the bearish trend of the wedge pattern, a close above this area could signal a bullish reversal
• Key Range at $2708-$2725: This area was previously support and resistance, making it a logical target for those looking for a breakout from the falling wedge pattern.
• Initial support at $2645: this was Friday’s high and where the 21-day exponential average comes into play
• Next support at $2580: This was the area where the last recovery started from in mid-November. If we drop below this level, then this could pave the way to $2500-$2530, with long-term support near $2440-$2400 aligning with the 200-day moving average.

In Summary

The short-term gold forecast remains murky, with competing factors like a strong dollar, geopolitical uncertainties, and major economic data releases shaping market sentiment. While long-term trends favour gold, immediate resistance levels and waning momentum call for caution. Traders are likely eyeing the upcoming CPI report and ECB meeting for a clearer direction. However, the Federal Reserve’s rate decision next week could ultimately be the decisive factor in gold’s next big move.

— Written by Fawad Razaqzada, Market Analyst

Follow Fawad on Twitter @Trader_F_R

Watching for Further Bullish Signs

Further bullish signs may include a daily close above the three-day high, or a daily close above the five-day high of 3.22, and then a daily close above the nearby uptrend line. The uptrend line must be watched visually. Natural gas is rallying following a successful test of support around the breakout area for a symmetrical triangle pattern, which includes a 61.8% Fibonacci retracement.

In other words, it is rising off a logical support zone that could complete the bearish retracement. Also, notice that over the past few days as natural gas was trying to find a bottom it was able to close above the 20-Day MA trend indicator each day.

Trend Support Indicated by 20-Day MA at 3.11

The 20-Day MA is now at 3.11. Along with the internal uptrend line, the 20-Day line provides a dynamic support line for the trend. If support continues to be found at or above the 20-Day MA, the rising trend remains in place. Since a bullish breakout of a symmetrical triangle formation occurred recently, there is the potential for a new upswing for the developing bull trend. Following the initial breakout, above 3.02, natural gas was able to sustain strength and reclaim prior swing highs at 3.16 and 3.39. This is bullish behavior that should return to the market for natural gas once the correction is complete.

Weekly Bullish Reversal Also Triggered

There was also a bullish reversal that triggered today on the weekly chart as last week’s high of 3.28 was exceeded to the upside. Therefore, the high provide another key near-term pivot to keep an eye on. A daily close above that level would provide another sign of strengthening.

For a look at all of today’s economic events, check out our economic calendar.

The coffee market is in a period of strong volatility, with mixed signals coming from both coffee prices. world and domestically. While Brazilian Arabica coffee prices increased slightly in the morning of 12/10, domestic coffee prices decreased in key localities.

Considering the current supporting and risk factors, this article will take a deeper look at the growth potential and potential challenges for the coffee market in the short term.

World Coffee Market: Positive Signals from Brazilian Arabica

Brazilian Arabica coffee prices, the world’s most popular coffee, recorded a slight increase in the morning of 12/10. Monthly delivery futures December 2024 increased by 0.41% to 304.50 USD/ton, while monthly delivery futures March 2025 increased by 0.20% to 303.80 USD/ton. However, the two monthly delivery futures May 2025 and July 2025 decreased slightly, by 1.15% and 1.26%, respectively.

The rise in Brazilian Arabica prices reflects concerns about global coffee supplies. Brazil, the world’s largest coffee producer, is facing a prolonged drought that is affecting coffee crop yields.

Domestic coffee market: Signs of slight decline

While the world coffee market is showing positive signs, domestic coffee prices are showing a slight downward trend. Specifically, coffee prices updated at 4:30 a.m. on October 13, 2024 show that the domestic coffee market today decreased in key localities, with an average decrease of VND400/kg, ranging from VND113.000 to VND113.700/kg.

The decline in domestic coffee prices can be attributed to a number of factors, including: After months of strong growth, many coffee growers are cautious about selling their coffee. Supply is abundant and Vietnam’s new coffee harvest has begun, and supply is expected to be more abundant in the coming period. Heavy rains during the harvest period can affect the quality of coffee and lead to a price drop.

Based on current market developments, tomorrow’s coffee price October 14, 2024 is expected to have a slight upward trend.

Factors supporting prices: Prolonged drought in Brazil and lower-than-expected coffee production in Vietnam remain key factors driving up coffee prices. And a weaker US dollar against other currencies makes coffee cheaper for importing countries, boosting demand. Global coffee demand is growing strongly, especially in emerging markets.

Risk factors: Heavy rains during harvest season in Vietnam could affect coffee quality and lead to reduced production. Shipping bottlenecks through the Red Sea could impact coffee exports, leading to lower prices.

Tomorrow’s coffee price October 14, 2024 is expected to be a balanced result between supporting and risky factors. A slight upward trend can be recorded, but the market still has many potential fluctuations. Investors need to closely monitor market developments to make appropriate investment decisions.

*Information is for reference only

Created on December 09, 2024

• The US oil market drifted a bit lower during the trading session on Friday, losing a little over a percent almost immediately.
• That being said, the market is likely to continue to see a lot of noise near the $67 level.
• But if we break down below there, it’s likely that we could drop to the $65 level.

All things being equal, this is a market that I think if you see some type of bounce, you have to look at it as a short-term buying opportunity. The 50-day EMA is near the $70 level, and that of course is an area that I think would attract a lot of attention in and of itself, just due to the fact that it is such a big round hole number.

On a Move Above

If we can break above there, then the crude oil market is likely to go looking to the $72.50 level above, which is a significant barrier also. If we were to break down below the $65 level, it’s likely that the bottom will fall out. But as things stand right now, I think what you’ve got here is a market that is just simply trying to hang on to the range that it’s been in for about three years.

The $65 level has been consistently important, so I like the idea of buying the pullback. Once we get a turnaround, perhaps a little bit of a balance in order to form a V on the chart, as it were. Whether or not we break out to the upside would be a completely different question, but as things stand right now, I think the market is just simply hanging around, killing time, seeing if it can find a reason to go higher. At this juncture, if you can watch the charts for short term trades, this is a market for you.

Ready to trade the daily crude oil Forex forecast? Here’s a list of some of the best Oil trading platforms to check out. 

• Gold price holds rebound from weekly lows early Monday, $2,650 retested.      
• The US Dollar clings to NFP-led recovery amid muted Treasury yields, Middle East geopolitical risks.
• Daily RSI prods 50 level again as Gold buyers regain 21-day SMA. Where next?

Gold’s price continues to face sellers at $2,650 early Monday, capping the latest uptick sponsored by fresh Middle East geopolitical tensions. Meanwhile, traders resort to repositioning heading into the US inflation week, lending some support to Gold price.

Gold price returns to the range amid a quiet start to a big week

Asian traders hit their desks on Monday, reacting to the weekend’s news of Syrian rebels seizing the capital, Damascus, ousting President Bashar al-Assad, who fled to Russia with his family seeking asylum. The toppling of Assad’s government ended a 13-year civil war and more than 50 years of his family’s brutal rule.

In response, the United Nations (UN) will likely convene for an emergency closed-door meeting on Monday to discuss the situation in Syria. Investors remain wary amid multiple risks emanating from the Middle East even as Israel struck a ceasefire deal with the Lebanese militant group Hezbollah a week ago.

They also remain cautious ahead of this week’s US Consumer Price Index (CPI) data, especially after Friday’s US labor data showed that the Nonfarm Payrolls rebounded by 227K in November, beating the estimated 200K increase. The Unemployment Rate ticked higher to 4.2% in the same period, as expected.

Despite the big beat on the headline NFP number, markets ramped up bets for a US Federal Reserve (Fed) interest rate cut this month to above 80%, according to the CME Group’s FedWatch Tool. This helped Gold price shake off the knee-jerk drop to the weekly low of $2,613 following the US labor data release.  

Looking ahead, geopolitical developments will continue playing a pivotal role in influencing risk sentiment, significantly impacting safe-haven assets such as Gold price, the US Dollar (USD) and the US Treasuries.

Besides Syria’s political upheaval, South Korea faces the same problem, with President Yoon Suk Yeol having survived the impeachment vote on Saturday. Yoon’s People Power Party boycotted the Saturday impeachment vote brought by opposition parties.

Markets also remain hopeful of more stimulus from China after the country’s consumer inflation data signalled continued demand weakness in the world’s biggest consumer. China’s stimulus optimism bodes well for the non-yielding Gold price. China’s CPI missed expectations in November, rising by 0.2% year on year (YoY), down from a 0.3% increase in October.

Gold price technical analysis: Daily chart

The daily chart shows that Gold’s price failed to chart a range breakdown on a daily closing basis on Friday and regained the critical short-term 21-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) at $2,630 after briefly breaching it during the day.

The 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) has turned higher to test the 50 level, backing the renewed uptick in Gold price.

However, it remains to be seen if Gold price extends the rebound from the weekly low as the $2,650 level emerges as the immediate upside hurdle.

Meanwhile, the 50-day SMA at $2,668 remains a tough nut to crack for the optimists. The next relevant resistance is seen at $2,700.

On the flip side, a daily candlestick closing below the 21-day SMA at $2,630 will likely revive the downside.

The next support aligns at the previous week’s low of $2,613, below which the 100-day SMA at $2,586 will be the line in the sand for Gold buyers.