Looks to be Heading Towards 3.56

Nonetheless, today’s price action leaves natural gas wide open for a test of resistance around the recent swing high of 3.56, and a likely rally above it. If that high is exceeded the next likely target is the 2023 high of 3.64. That high begins the top trendlines marking the boundary of a large symmetrical triangle pattern.

It is important to note that the extended target for a rising ABCD pattern (purple) completes there as well at 3.67. Further up is the completion of an extended rising ABCD target at 3.87. A key point to consider is that a breakout above 3.64 will further confirm a bullish reversal of trend that is still making progress.

Symmetrical Triangle Breakout Proceeds

Price action following the breakout of a triangle pattern on November 20 has been a textbook example of bullish behavior so far. Once the breakout triggered the first two initial targets from prior swing highs were exceeded. Subsequently, after the high of 3.56 was reached a two-week correction began before finding support around the initial triangle breakout area of 3.02 last week.

Bullish Above 20-Day MA

Regardless of the potential for upside follow-through, a drop below today’s support at 3.18 would be short-term bearish. The 20-Day MA is a little lower at 3.14. The expectation is for natural gas to continue higher from here but that may begin to change if the 20-Day line fails to retain support. After today, the internal uptrend line on the chart will be adjusted down to connect with last week’s low.

For a look at all of today’s economic events, check out our economic calendar.

• Silver price bounced back toward Monday’s monthly high of $32.28.
• Precious metals, including silver, gained support on news of potential economic stimulus measures from China.
• Non-yielding assets like Silver receive support from the rising likelihood of the Fed’s rate cut again in December.

Silver price (XAG/USD) extends its gains for the third successive session, trading around $32.00 during the Asian hours on Wednesday. The demand outlook for precious metals, including Silver, in the world’s largest consumer of raw materials has been increased following news of potential economic stimulus from China.

The Politburo announced plans to adopt a “moderately loose” monetary policy and a “more proactive” approach to fiscal stimulus next year, marking a departure from the more cautious tone of the past decade.

Silver prices receive support from increased odds of the US Federal Reserve (Fed) cutting interest rates again in December. Markets are now pricing in nearly an 85.8% chance of Fed rate reductions by 25 basis points, according to the CME FedWatch Tool.

However, the upside of the Silver price could be restrained due to the stronger US Dollar (USD), which makes dollar-denominated Silver less affordable for buyers with foreign currencies, dampening its demand.

The US Dollar gains ground as traders adopt caution ahead of the US Consumer Price Index (CPI) data scheduled to be released on Wednesday. The US CPI inflation is estimated to rise to 2.7% YoY in November from 2.6% in October. Meanwhile, the core CPI, excluding Food & Energy, is expected to increase 3.3% YoY. Any indications of stalled progress could significantly diminish the likelihood of a Federal Reserve’s (Fed) rate cut.

The U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) lowered its forecast for crude oil prices for the year 2025 in a report released on Tuesday. The U.S. energy sector anticipates that oil prices—both Brent and West Texas Intermediate—will face downward pressure, primarily due to a buildup of inventories in the second half of next year.

As a result, according to the new forecasts, the average price of Brent crude is expected to be $73.58 per barrel in 2025, down 3.26% from the previous forecast of $76.06.

Additionally, the price of West Texas Intermediate crude is projected to be $69.12 per barrel in 2025, decreasing 3.46% from last month’s estimate of $71.60.

Furthermore, global crude oil production is expected to reach an average of 77.81 million barrels per day next year, with OPEC+ contributing 35.87 million barrels, the United States producing 13.52 million barrels, and non-OPEC+ countries (excluding the United States) contributing the remaining 28.41 million barrels.

Roasted Coffee Market Size in Kenya

The Kenyan roasted coffee market declined modestly to $X in 2023, dropping by X% against the previous year. Overall, the total consumption indicated strong growth from 2012 to 2023: its value increased at an average annual rate of X% over the last eleven years. The trend pattern, however, indicated some noticeable fluctuations being recorded throughout the analyzed period. Based on 2023 figures, consumption increased by X% against 2021 indices. As a result, consumption attained the peak level of $X, and then shrank in the following year.

Roasted Coffee Production in Kenya

In value terms, roasted coffee production amounted to $X in 2023 estimated in export price. Over the period under review, the total production indicated strong growth from 2012 to 2023: its value increased at an average annual rate of X% over the last eleven-year period. The trend pattern, however, indicated some noticeable fluctuations being recorded throughout the analyzed period. Based on 2023 figures, production increased by X% against 2021 indices. The pace of growth was the most pronounced in 2013 with an increase of X% against the previous year. Over the period under review, production reached the maximum level in 2023 and is likely to see steady growth in years to come.

Roasted Coffee Exports

Exports from Kenya

Roasted coffee exports from Kenya soared to X tons in 2023, rising by X% on 2022. Over the period under review, exports posted a significant increase. The pace of growth was the most pronounced in 2017 when exports increased by X%. Over the period under review, the exports hit record highs in 2023 and are likely to see gradual growth in the near future.

In value terms, roasted coffee exports surged to $X in 2023. Overall, exports showed significant growth. The pace of growth appeared the most rapid in 2022 when exports increased by X% against the previous year. Over the period under review, the exports hit record highs in 2023 and are likely to continue growth in the near future.

Exports by Country

Denmark (X tons) was the main destination for roasted coffee exports from Kenya, accounting for a X% share of total exports. Moreover, roasted coffee exports to Denmark exceeded the volume sent to the second major destination, Finland (X tons), fivefold. The third position in this ranking was held by the Netherlands (X tons), with an X% share.

From 2013 to 2023, the average annual rate of growth in terms of volume to Denmark totaled X%. Exports to the other major destinations recorded the following average annual rates of exports growth: Finland (X% per year) and the Netherlands (X% per year).

In value terms, Denmark ($X) remains the key foreign market for roasted coffee exports from Kenya, comprising X% of total exports. The second position in the ranking was taken by Finland ($X), with a X% share of total exports. It was followed by the Netherlands, with a X% share.

From 2013 to 2023, the average annual growth rate of value to Denmark stood at X%. Exports to the other major destinations recorded the following average annual rates of exports growth: Finland (X% per year) and the Netherlands (X% per year).

Export Prices by Country

In 2023, the average roasted coffee export price amounted to $X per ton, with an increase of X% against the previous year. Over the period under review, the export price, however, continues to indicate a noticeable curtailment. The pace of growth appeared the most rapid in 2022 an increase of X% against the previous year. Over the period under review, the average export prices attained the maximum at $X per ton in 2013; however, from 2014 to 2023, the export prices remained at a lower figure.

There were significant differences in the average prices for the major overseas markets. In 2023, amid the top suppliers, the country with the highest price was Saudi Arabia ($X per ton), while the average price for exports to the United States ($X per ton) was amongst the lowest.

From 2013 to 2023, the most notable rate of growth in terms of prices was recorded for supplies to Saudi Arabia (X%), while the prices for the other major destinations experienced more modest paces of growth.

Roasted Coffee Imports

Imports into Kenya

After two years of growth, supplies from abroad of roasted coffee decreased by X% to X tons in 2023. Overall, imports, however, enjoyed resilient growth. The most prominent rate of growth was recorded in 2017 when imports increased by X% against the previous year. Over the period under review, imports hit record highs at X tons in 2019; however, from 2020 to 2023, imports remained at a lower figure.

In value terms, roasted coffee imports shrank sharply to $X in 2023. Over the period under review, imports, however, showed a resilient expansion. The growth pace was the most rapid in 2017 with an increase of X%. Over the period under review, imports attained the peak figure at $X in 2019; however, from 2020 to 2023, imports failed to regain momentum.

Imports by Country

Italy (X tons), Uganda (X tons) and Portugal (X tons) were the main suppliers of roasted coffee imports to Kenya, together accounting for X% of total imports. Ethiopia, Germany and Switzerland lagged somewhat behind, together comprising a further X%.

From 2013 to 2023, the biggest increases were recorded for Germany (with a CAGR of X%), while purchases for the other leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

In value terms, the largest roasted coffee suppliers to Kenya were Portugal ($X), Uganda ($X) and Italy ($X), with a combined X% share of total imports. Switzerland, Ethiopia and Germany lagged somewhat behind, together comprising a further X%.

In terms of the main suppliers, Germany, with a CAGR of X%, recorded the highest rates of growth with regard to the value of imports, over the period under review, while purchases for the other leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

Import Prices by Country

In 2023, the average roasted coffee import price amounted to $X per ton, declining by X% against the previous year. In general, the import price recorded a pronounced decrease. The growth pace was the most rapid in 2022 when the average import price increased by X%. The import price peaked at $X per ton in 2015; however, from 2016 to 2023, import prices failed to regain momentum.

There were significant differences in the average prices amongst the major supplying countries. In 2023, amid the top importers, the country with the highest price was Switzerland ($X per ton), while the price for Italy ($X per ton) was amongst the lowest.

From 2013 to 2023, the most notable rate of growth in terms of prices was attained by Portugal (X%), while the prices for the other major suppliers experienced more modest paces of growth.

Source: IndexBox Platform

Frequently Asked Questions (FAQ) :

• Gold price sits at two-week highs near $2,700 early Wednesday, awaiting US CPI data.       
• Chinese central bank buying and Middle East tensions bolster the Gold price upswing.
• Gold price finds acceptance above 50-day SMA amid a bullish RSI on the daily chart.

Gold’s price is on a solid recovery, flirting with two-week highs just above $2,700 early Wednesday. However, the further upside in gold price hinges on the release of the US  Consumer Price Index (CPI) data, which will likely set the pace for the US Federal Reserve’s (Fed) early next year.

Gold price stays firm as US CPI report looms

Heading into the US CPI showdown, markets are pricing in an 86% chance that the Fed will lower interest rates by 25 basis points (bps) next week, according to the CME Group’s FedWatch Tool. Meanwhile, the odds for another quarter percentage point rate reduction in January stand at 22%.

Amidst looming tariffs announced by US President-elect Donald Trump and loosening labor market conditions, the US inflation report will be critical to determining the Fed’s easing trajectory in the coming months. This will impact the value of the US Dollar (USD) and the non-yielding Gold price.

US CPI is seen rising 2.7% year-on-year (YoY) in November after reporting a 2.6% growth in October. The core annual inflation will likely remain at 3.3% in the same period. On a monthly basis, US CPI and core CPI are expected to have increased by 0.3% last month.

Gold  price has witnessed an impressive recovery from eight-day lows so far this week, sitting at the highest level since November 25. This is courtesy of the ongoing Middle East geopolitical tensions and the resumption of the People’s Bank of China (PBOC) buying gold reserves.

 The Chinese central bank on Saturday said it bought 160,000 fine troy ounces in November, ending a six-month pause in purchases. Meanwhile, the sudden collapse of the Syrian government over the weekend rattled markets, with investors scurrying for safety in the traditional store of value Gold price.

According to the latest developments, Israel Defense Forces (IDF)  carried out attacks on Syria’s naval fleet as part of its efforts to neutralise military assets in the country after the fall of the Assad regime, per BBC News.

Gold price technical analysis: Daily chart

The daily chart shows that the Gold price broke the consolidative phase to the upside after recapturing the key 50-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) at $2,670 on a daily closing basis on Tuesday.

The 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) points north above the midline, suggesting that more gains remain in the offing.  

A softer-than-expected US CPI inflation data could reinforce Fed rate cut expectations in the coming months, driving Gold price toward the November 25  high of $2,721.

The next bullish target is $2,750, the confluence of the psychological barrier and the November 5 high.

Fresh buying opportunities will likely emerge on a sustained move above the latter, calling for a test of the record high of $2,790.

In case the inflation data surprises to the upside, Gold price could face fresh headwinds, with sellers likely to test the 50-day SMA resistance-turned-support at $2,670.

The next relevant downside cap is seen at the 21-day SMA at $2,638, below which the previous week’s low of $2,613 will be challenged.

In this article 10 market predictions for 2025 we focus on 10 markets that we predict to develop a bullish trend in 2025. We cover stocks, obviously precious metals and a few select commodities.

Additionally, we indicate that the most intense periods of 2025 will be:

• February till mid-March 2025.
• Mid-March till early May 2025.
• Mid-May till mid-June 2025.

We expect strong moves to develop in those 3 to 6 weeks periods.

Note – We exclude crypto from this article. While very bullish crypto, it is a separate asset class, not in scope of this article.

1. Epic sector rotation set to dominate 2025

Sector rotation has been the dominant trend in markets since the turning point October 13th, 2022.

Trends have been developing in specific sectors, mostly short-lived, with trend continuation after a few months.

This dominant market trend is set to continue to dominate markets in 2025.

• Intermarket analysis and sector reviews will remain a success factor in 2025.
• It might not feel like a bull market in 2025 – it will be a bull market looking at the data though.

Investing strategies should factor in sector rotation.

2. Dow Jones predicted to rise in 2025

Source: Dow Jones Forecast For 2025.

The Dow Jones is predicted to be directionally bullish.

Our Dow Jones forecast 2025 is a trading range between 38,000 and 44,000.

Large caps will benefit from rising future earnings. Moreover, a gradual decrease in inflation combined with current interest rates benefit large caps.

3. S&P 500 forecast: higher in 2025

Source: S&P 500 Forecast For 2025.

The long term and medium term S&P 500 chart structures show a dominant bullish pattern.

Moreover, future earnings combined with economic data and consumer spending underpin a bullish outlook for the S&P 500.

This justifies a bullish S&P 500 forecast for 2025. That’s why we believe the S&P 500 will move in a range between 5,350 and 6,350 points in 2025.

While the S&P 500 should do well, juicy opportunities should be presented in the mid-cap space which is set to benefit from improving market breadth!

4. Nasdaq to continue its bull run in 2025

Source: Bullish Nasdaq Prediction 2025 & The 20-Year Nasdaq Chart.

The Nasdaq Index has been leading the charge in 2023, until early July 2024. Since then, the Nasdaq has been lagging.

In 2025, the Nasdaq is predicted to continue resuming its leadership position. The Nasdaq bull run is set to continue.

The Nasdaq is forecasted to move to the 22,220 area in 2025, based on its 20-year chart pattern.

The long term Nasdaq charts are absolutely phenomenal, worth checking out by clicking the above mentioned hyperlink.

5. Nikkei 225 predicted to be very volatile in 2025

Source: Japanese Nikkei 225 Index Historic Chart.

The Nikkei 225 is expected to become very volatile, especially in the 2nd half of 2025. This is one of the more unusual forecast among our 10 market predictions for 2025.

The Nikkei 225 historic chart over 50 years shows a giant secular pattern while the 25-year chart highlights a decision time window.

The decision window of the 50-year Nikkei 225 chart is completing in the first months of 2026. This means that 2025 will be a year in which the market will look for resolution of this gigantic pattern.

Our Nikkei 225 prediction is centered around the idea that chart dynamics will dominate in 2025.

6. Gold predicted to exceed $3,000 in 2025

Source: Gold Price Prediction 2025.

Gold is forecasted to move closer to, and even temporarily exceed, 3000 USD an Ounce.

The price of gold might approach $3,000 in 2025 and exceed $3,000 in 2026. Eventually, gold could approach $5,000 by 2030.

The gold prediction suggests that dominant dynamics in the gold market will be monetary easing, a weak USD, gold secular chart dynamics. Because of this, the gold price is set to move higher in 2025.

Interestingly, we predict that tokenized gold will do well in 2025.

Tokenization should become a major trend in 2025. If materialized, tis implies that tokenized gold, tokenized silver, tokenized real estate, could become booming business. That’s the basis for a crypto narrative in 2025, as explained in this article: Which Cryptocurrencies Will Be Explosive in 2025?

7. Silver predicted to test former ATH in 2025

Source: Will Silver Hit $50 An Ounce in 2025? and Silver Price Prediction 2025.

2025 will likely be the year in which silver will approach its former ATH.

We explained the drivers for this bullish thesis here: 5 reasons to believe silver is the opportunity of the decade. Moreover, shorter term, we emphasized silver’s massive upside potential, backed up by leading indicator analysis.

Silver can and will hit $50 an Ounce, the only question is WHEN. On September 18th, 2024, silver confirmed its short term breakout which implies that silver is on its way to $50, probably in early to mid-2025.

The price of silver is working its way higher currently, in a structure characterized by several layers of resistance.

So far, silver has shown its ability to penetrate all those layers, one by one, at a slow pace.

This silver trend is set to continue in 2025 is the basis of our bullish silver forecast.

Readers should keep a close eye on the long term oriented posts in the $silver cash tag, filter out short term oriented info though.

8. Sugar predicted to strongly rise in 2025

Source: Sugar Price Forecast 2025.

A rise of 50% in the price of sugar? Is this realistic.

Oh yes, for sure. This is what we wrote in our most recent sugar forecast update:

On September 20th, 2024, sugar confirmed our bullish silver forecast 2025 after it bounced sharply from its critical $18 cents per pound level. A rise in the price of sugar to $36 cents in 2025 is likely.

It’s the sugar chart combined with its fundamentals that paint a bullish picture for sugar in 2025.

9. Coffee predicted to steadily rise in 2025

Source: Coffee Price Prediction 2025.

The price of coffee is expected to steadily rise in 2025.

The most bullish scenario suggests $3.40 per pound which is 37% above current levels.

This bullish outlook is supported by solid coffee fundamentals which has proven to be a very reliable leading indicator and strongly correlated to the price of coffee over the years.

10. Lithium forecast a major bottom in 2025

Source: Lithium – A New Booming Trend As Of 2025?

We predict that the lithium market will start working on a nice long term bottom in 2025.

This should present investors with a long term focus with nice entry opportunities, maybe even ahead of 2025, provided spot lithium does not move lower from here.

The 10 market predictions for 2025, outlined in this article, are available on our blog. They will be updated on a regular basis. We encourage readers to sign up to our premium services, particularly gold & silver as well as our crypto research, for very specific market insights and timely alerts.

• Silver gains 0.19%, stabilizing at $31.89 as traders anticipate key U.S. inflation figures and Fed’s next steps.
• Technical analysis highlights consolidation near the $32 mark, with $31.75 acting as crucial support.
• Potential downside risks include a fall towards the $31.00 area and the 100-day SMA at $30.47 if bearish pressure mounts.

Silver price climbed some 0.19% on Tuesday yet failed to clear the $32.00 hurdle after hitting a three-week high of $32.27 at the beginning of the week. At the time of writing, XAG/USD trades at $31.89 as Wednesday’s Asian Pacific session commences.

Mounting speculation about a potential Federal Reserve interest rate cut next week is driving market sentiment. The release of US inflation data on Wednesday is expected to provide clearer insights into the Fed’s monetary policy trajectory.

XAG/USD Price Forecast: Technical outlook

After briefly climbing above $32.00, XAG/USD retreated and is now consolidating within the $31.75–$32.00 range, with the 50-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) at $31.75 serving as key support.

The price action suggests the formation of a “double bottom” chart pattern, which remains just short of its minimum target of $33.50. A decisive break above the $32.00 resistance level could strengthen bullish momentum, paving the way toward $33.00 and ultimately the “double bottom” target.

On the other hand, if XAG/USD falls below the 50-day SMA, sellers may gain control, potentially driving prices toward the low $31.00 range. A further decline past this level could bring the 100-day SMA at $30.47 into focus.

XAG/USD Price Chart – Daily

20-Day MA Remains a Short-term Pivot

There are also three recent upswings (red arrow) where crude oil exceeded the 20-Day line. That could still happen with the current attempt to strengthen, but until it does the 20-Day line is a key short-term upside pivot. In other words, the 20-Day line has been reflecting short-term resistance. This is bearish behavior unless there is a decisive and sustained advance above the 20-Day MA pivot, followed by a daily close above it.

Symmetrical Triangle Pattern

The bottom boundary line that represents support for a small symmetrical triangle pattern was confirmed again recently as support. The price of crude was rejected to the upside from the line last Friday and again yesterday. This is a notification that the line is valid and may represent support in the future. Although a breakout above the 20-Day line may trigger, crude will remain within the triangle formation until it rises above the top line of the triangle, which is purple.

Bull Wedge Pattern

There is also a recent interim swing high at 70.68 that may provide a more useful pivot, not only because it further confirms the triangle breakout, but it also gives a trend reversal signal. In addition, the 50-Day MA pivot currently marks the same price area. The top line is purple because it also represents a boundary for a possible falling bull wedge pattern. A purple line also marks the lower boundary (green arrows) of the pattern. Therefore, an upside breakout of the top line for the triangle also provides an initial breakout signal for a bull wedge.

Resolution on the Horizon

Volatility could increase soon if the triangle pattern proves valid as the apex is on January 3. This suggests that a spike in volatility, represented by a breakout of the patterns, either up or down, before the end of the year. Let’s see what happens.

For a look at all of today’s economic events, check out our economic calendar.

XAU/USD Current price: $2,687.35

• Upcoming central banks’ monetary policy decisions keep investors on their toes.
• The United States will publish the November Consumer Price Index on Wednesday.
• XAU/USD recovered its bullish poise and aims towards $2,700 in the near term.

Spot Gold maintains its bullish route on Tuesday, extending gains beyond the $2,680 threshold on the back of a dismal market mood. The US Dollar (USD) suffered some modest losses throughout the first half of the day, but demand for safety accelerated in the American session, benefiting the Greenback against high-yielding assets yet not against Gold.

The poor performance of European stocks and upcoming first-tier events further pushed speculative interest into adopting a cautious approach. On Wednesday, the United States (US) will release the November Consumer Price Index (CPI), and investors hope they can collect hints on what the Federal Reserve (Fed) may do when it meets next week. The Fed is widely anticipated to trim the benchmark interest rate by 25 basis points (bps) and inflation needs to be out of the rook to actually force them to proceed with a more aggressive cut, an unlikely scenario.

But it is not just about the Fed. Almost all major central banks will announce their decisions on monetary policy in the upcoming days. The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) was the first one early Tuesday, delivering no big surprises as the Board left the Official Cash Rate (OCR) unchanged at 4.35% as expected. The Bank of Canada (BoC) will come next, followed by the European Central Bank (ECB) on Thursday.

Central banks are struggling to return to normal interest rate levels while keeping inflation tamed and protecting economic growth. Indeed, the latter is out of their mandate, yet policymakers can’t play blind and deaf on soft economic progress and the risks of upcoming recessions. Their decisions will shed some light on what 2025 may bring regarding monetary policy.

XAU/USD short-term technical outlook

Meanwhile, the XAU/USD pair holds on to early gains and trades near the $2,690 mark. In the daily chart, technical readings favor an upward extension, given that the pair keeps recovering above a now mildly bullish 20 Simple Moving Average (SMA), while the 100 and 200 SMAs recovered their bullish poise below the shorter one. At the same time, technical indicators gain upward traction within positive levels, reflecting increased buying interest.

In the near term, and according to the 4-hour chart, the risk also skews to the upside. XAU/USD is above a flat 200 SMA for the first time in the month, while the 20 and 100 SMA advance below it, converging around $2,650. Finally, technical indicators develop near overbought reading with modest upward strength, but still heading north. Overall, XAU/USD seems poised to extend gains towards its record high in the $2,790 region.

Support levels: 2,676.30 2,662.50 2,650.40 2

Resistance levels: 2,693.70 2,704.35 2,722.60

Another Retest of 20-Day Support

Four out of the past last five days tested support around the 20-Day and each time natural gas fell below the line earlier in the session it traded back above the line by the close. That should be the same situation today. If dynamic support is retained at or above the 20-Day line, natural gas is primed to continue higher. It has been attempting to establish a bottom for the current pullback. But it has not yet made a clear break off that bottom that should engender confidence in the bullish reversal with signs of more aggressive buying.

Weekly Bullish Reversal Triggered

A bullish reversal was triggered yesterday on the weekly chart (not shown). The trigger indicates strengthening in demand for natural gas and it provides another piece of evidence supporting a bullish continuation of the rising trend and the likelihood that the bearish correction may have bottomed out.

The uptrend that begins from the February 2024 trend low triggered a breakout recently on a rally above the 3.02 swing high on November 20. That was concurrent to a symmetrical triangle breakout. Each would be a valid signal on its own but when they occur together the assumption is that upside follow-through should occur with improved momentum.

Bullish Hammer Breakout Above 3.19

After today, strength will be indicated on a rally above today’s high of 3.19 and further still on a move above Monday’s high of 3.32. The internal uptrend that is nearby can be used as a guide as it was previously representing support during the way up. It was specifically tested as resistance last Thursday before the gap up opening on Monday.

For a look at all of today’s economic events, check out our economic calendar.