Crude oil price managed to break 73.90$ level and close the daily candlestick below it, reinforcing the expectations of continuing the correctional bearish trend in the upcoming sessions, opening the way to head towards 72.30$ that represents our next main target, noting that breaking this level will push the price to suffer additional losses that reach 70.30$ on the near-term basis.
Holding below 73.90$ is important to the continuation of the expected decline, as breaching it will lead the price to achieve intraday gains and head to test 75.53$ areas before any new attempt to decline.
The expected trading range for today is between 71.60$ support and 74.60$ resistance
The Federal Reserve will likely keep rates on hold in today’s monetary policy meeting.
The United States will publish the preliminary estimate of the Q4 GDP on Thursday.
XAU/USD could extend its slide in the near term amid prevalent US Dollar demand.
Gold is under modest selling pressure on Wednesday as caution rules ahead of the Federal Reserve’s (Fed) monetary policy announcement. The United States (US) central bank is widely anticipated to keep the benchmark interest rate unchanged after trimming 25 basis points (bps) and settling it at 4.25%-4.5% in December.
Back then, officials adopted a more dovish stance amid uncertainty about President Donald Trump’s trade policies and their potential effects on economic development. Trump’s initial days at the office have indeed triggered loads of noise, with the focus on tariffs. Still, the US government has announced no new levies.
There is a good chance the Fed will repeat its December statement as officials would prefer to wait for a clearer picture before taking a more hawkish approach. In the meantime, and following the Fed’s decision, the US will publish the preliminary estimate of the Q4 Gross Domestic Product (GDP) on Thursday. The report is expected to show that the economy grew at a solid 2.6% pace on an annualized basis, slightly below the 3.1% posted in Q3.
Meanwhile, US government bond yields held steady. The 10-year Treasury note offers 4.55%, pretty much unchanged on a daily basis. US indexes, in the meantime, are modestly down after their overseas counterparts closed in the green.
XAU/USD short-term technical outlook
From a technical point of view, the daily chart for the XAU/USD shows an undergoing consolidative stage. The bright metal seesaws between gains and losses but remains above the $2,700 mark and not far below record highs. The same chart shows that the 20 Simple Moving Average (SMA) keeps heading north well below the current level, while it is above bullish 100 and 200 SMAs, limiting the bearish case. Finally, technical indicators ease within positive levels, far above their midlines and falling short of suggesting a sustained bearish extension.
In the near term, and according to the 4-hour chart, however, the risk skews to the downside. XAU/USD has spent the last couple of sessions battling a now bearish 20 SMA, developing just below it. The longer moving averages maintain their upward slopes below the current level, yet technical indicators are crossing their midlines into negative territory, favoring another leg south.
line of a large symmetrical triangle becomes a potential target, and further down is the 78.6% retracement at 2.67. Currently the 200-Day MA has converged with the retracement level and is identifying the same price. Nonetheless, the 200-Day MA marks a key potential support level for the larger bull trend.
Large Rising Parallel Trend Channel
A key point to consider is the presence of a large rising parallel trend channel on the chart. Notice that during the recent rally there was a failed attempt to break out above the top channel line before a high was established at 4.37. Given the subsequent bearish decline follow through the possibility of an eventual test of support at or near the lows of the channel are a possibility. Once there is a clear reversal from one side of the channel, there is the possibility of reaching the other side of the channel.
20-Week MA Tested as Support
Further to the above analysis, the weekly chart may provide an additional clue. Today’s low reached a seven-week low and there is also a monthly low from December at 2.98. The decline also tested support around 20-Week MA, which is at 3.11. The 20-week line has marked trend support on the weekly chart since it was reclaimed in October.
This seems to increase the chance that today’s low could hold as support and complete the correction. It also indicates that a decisive decline below the 20-Week MA will provide bearish confirmation and increase the chance for natural gas to eventually test lower prices before the correction is complete.
For a look at all of today’s economic events, check out our economic calendar.
Berkshire Hathaway’s stock price (BRK.B) fell in the intraday levels on profit-taking, while gathering positive momentum to rise anew, amid the dominance of the main upward trend in the medium term, with positive pressure due to trading above the 50-day SMA, while the stock managed to vent off overbought saturation in the RSI.
Therefore we expect the stock to return higher and target the pivotal resistance of $491.65, provided the support of $455.30 holds on.
As of Monday’s low, crude was down by 9.3% from the recent swing high of 80.76. Support was seen around a prior key resistance level at 73.27. The decline completed a 50% retracement at 73.93 on the way down. Confirmation of support was also indicated by an internal uptrend line that marked a similar price zone as the November 7 minor swing high and top of a price range. In other words, crude has reached a support zone that could lead to a bullish reversal. Continue to watch price behavior around the 73.23 low.
Inside Day Bull Breakout Potential
If there is a rally above todays inside day high of 75.15 and considering the 200-Day line at 75.20, crude could complete a bullish reversal that could lead to an advance. There are several potential barriers that would then need to be considered on the way up as resistance could be seen. The 20-Day MA is at 75.92 and it is a little shy of a trendline that could present resistance. Tuesday’s high at 76.03 could also be considered. Together, these price levels present a potential resistance zone from 75.92 to 76.20 (Friday’s high).
Downside Risk Remains
On the downside, a drop below 73.23 provides a bearish continuation signal and increases the chance that the next lower potential support area is reached. The lower price support zone looks to be around 72.32 to 72.15. That range includes the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level and the 50-Day MA, respectively. The 50-Day line is key as it was recently reclaimed on December 24, a couple day’s before a sharp rally began. This decline would be the first test of support at the 50-Day line since then. A daily close below it would be bearish and could indicate further selling pressure.
For a look at all of today’s economic events, check out our economic calendar.
The GBPUSD price provides positive trades to move away from 1.2415$ level gradually, which supports the continuation of the expected bullish trend for today, which targets 1.2609$ as a next main station, noting that the intraday bullish channel organizes the correctional bullish wave, which will remain valid unless breaking 1.2415$ and holding below it.
The expected trading range for today is between 1.2375$ support and 1.2525$ resistance
Platinum price repeated the negative closings below 955.00$ barrier, hinting its surrender to the continuous domination of the correctional bearish bias by consolidating near 940.00$.
Also, stochastic continuous negative momentum assists to provide more negative trades until reaching the additional support at 920.00$, while breaching the barrier and holding above it will push the price back to the bullish track to expect achieving many gains by rallying towards 972.00$ followed by reaching 983.00$.
The expected trading range for today is between 920.00$ and 955.00$
Silver scales higher for the second straight day and climbs back closer to the weekly top.
The technical setup favors bulls and supports prospects for a further appreciating move.
Any subsequent move up might continue to face stiff resistance near the 100-day SMA.
Silver (XAG/USD) attracts buying for the second straight day on Wednesday and trades near the top end of its weekly range, around mid-$30.00s during the first half of the European session, up over 0.40% for the day.
Meanwhile, technical indicators on the daily chart have again started gaining positive traction and support prospects for further appreciating move. That said, any subsequent move up might continue to confront stiff resistance near the $31.00 mark, or the 100-day Simple Moving Average (SMA). The said barrier should act as a key pivotal point for the XAG/USD, which if cleared decisively might trigger a short-covering rally.
The subsequent move up could extend towards the next relevant hurdle near the $31.45-$31.50 area en route to the $32.00 mark and the December monthly swing high, around the $32.30 region. Some follow-through buying will suggest that the corrective decline from a multi-year peak touched in October 2024 has run its course and pave the way for additional gains.
On the flip side, the 200-day SMA, currently pegged just ahead of the $30.00 psychological mark, should act as an immediate strong support. A convincing break below could make the XAG/USD vulnerable to retesting the weekly swing low, around the $29.70 region touched on Monday. The downward trajectory could extend further towards the $29.10-$29.00 area en route to the $28.75-$28.70 region, or a multi-month low touched in December.
Silver daily chart
Silver FAQs
Silver is a precious metal highly traded among investors. It has been historically used as a store of value and a medium of exchange. Although less popular than Gold, traders may turn to Silver to diversify their investment portfolio, for its intrinsic value or as a potential hedge during high-inflation periods. Investors can buy physical Silver, in coins or in bars, or trade it through vehicles such as Exchange Traded Funds, which track its price on international markets.
Silver prices can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can make Silver price escalate due to its safe-haven status, although to a lesser extent than Gold’s. As a yieldless asset, Silver tends to rise with lower interest rates. Its moves also depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAG/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Silver at bay, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to propel prices up. Other factors such as investment demand, mining supply – Silver is much more abundant than Gold – and recycling rates can also affect prices.
Silver is widely used in industry, particularly in sectors such as electronics or solar energy, as it has one of the highest electric conductivity of all metals – more than Copper and Gold. A surge in demand can increase prices, while a decline tends to lower them. Dynamics in the US, Chinese and Indian economies can also contribute to price swings: for the US and particularly China, their big industrial sectors use Silver in various processes; in India, consumers’ demand for the precious metal for jewellery also plays a key role in setting prices.
Silver prices tend to follow Gold’s moves. When Gold prices rise, Silver typically follows suit, as their status as safe-haven assets is similar. The Gold/Silver ratio, which shows the number of ounces of Silver needed to equal the value of one ounce of Gold, may help to determine the relative valuation between both metals. Some investors may consider a high ratio as an indicator that Silver is undervalued, or Gold is overvalued. On the contrary, a low ratio might suggest that Gold is undervalued relative to Silver.
Bitcoin price (BTCUSD) trades positively to attempt to breach 102900.00$ level, reinforcing the expectations of continuing the bullish trend for the rest of the day, reminding you that our main waited target reaches 108350.45$.
Stochastic overlaps positively to support the expectations to rise in the upcoming sessions, reminding you that the continuation of the bullish wave depends on the price stability above 100150.00$.
The expected trading range for today is between 100000.00$ support and 106000.00$ resistance.
Gold price holds the previous rebound below $2,770 on Fed day.
The US Dollar trades subdued amid risk recovery, boosting Gold price.
The daily technical setup for gold prices remains bullish, but the Fed could spoil its party.
Gold price clings to recovery gains near $2,770 in Wednesday’s Asian trading. Gold buyers trade cautiously, heading into the critical Federal Reserve (Fed) policy announcement that is due later this Wednesday.
Gold price looks to Fed verdict for the next trading impetus
Markets are in a wait-and-see mode, anticipating the Fed will pause the interest rate cut and provide hints on the following policy move. Markets are pricing in almost 50 basis points (bps) of cuts this year, or two 25 bp reductions starting in June, according to LSEG data.
However, Fed Chairman Jerome Powell’s press conference will be closely scrutinized for the timing and the scope of further rate reductions under US President Donald Trump’s second term. Trump’s immigration and trade policies are perceived as inflationary, as they could prompt the Fed to keep higher rates for longer, boding ill for the non-interest-bearing Gold price.
In case, Powell and his colleagues express their confidence in the path of disinflation and acknowledge weakening labor market conditions, markets could read that as a dovish hold, ramping up bets for future rate cuts, lifting Gold price to new record highs.
In the meantime, Gold price will continue to draw support from stabilizing risk sentiment, broadly subdued US Dollar and holiday-thinned conditions. China, Singapore, and Hong Kong markets also closed due to the Lunar New Year holiday break.
Markets recover from China’s low-cost artificial intelligence (AI) model – DeepSeek-led global AI sell-off as the focus now also remains on the earnings results from the US tech titans – Microsoft, Meta and Tesla due in the late American session on Wednesday.
If earnings disappoint and budget forecasts leave investors unconvinced, a renewed global tech sell-off could be in the offing, with markets resorting to ‘sell-everything’ mode. In such a case, Gold price could reverse any reaction to the Fed policy announcements or extend the downside on a potential hawkish hold.
Gold price technical analysis: Daily chart
The technical setup on the daily time frame remains in favor of Gold price. Therefore, the bright metal will likely be a ‘buy-the-dips’ trade.
The 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) holds comfortably above the midline, currently near 65, keeping Gold buyers hopeful.
Adding credence to the bullish potential, the 50-day SMA closed above the 100-day SMA last Thursday, confirming a Bull Cross.
Gold price needs a daily candlestick closing above the symmetrical triangle target of $2,785 or record high of $2,790 to initiate a fresh uptrend.
The next relevant upside targets are $2,800 and the $2,850 psychological barrier.
On the downside, the immediate support will be seen at the previous day’s low of $2,735.
Sellers will then aim for the $2,700 round level, where the 21-day SMA coincides. The last line of defense for buyers is the $2,680 static support.
Fed FAQs
Monetary policy in the US is shaped by the Federal Reserve (Fed). The Fed has two mandates: to achieve price stability and foster full employment. Its primary tool to achieve these goals is by adjusting interest rates. When prices are rising too quickly and inflation is above the Fed’s 2% target, it raises interest rates, increasing borrowing costs throughout the economy. This results in a stronger US Dollar (USD) as it makes the US a more attractive place for international investors to park their money. When inflation falls below 2% or the Unemployment Rate is too high, the Fed may lower interest rates to encourage borrowing, which weighs on the Greenback.
The Federal Reserve (Fed) holds eight policy meetings a year, where the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) assesses economic conditions and makes monetary policy decisions. The FOMC is attended by twelve Fed officials – the seven members of the Board of Governors, the president of the Federal Reserve Bank of New York, and four of the remaining eleven regional Reserve Bank presidents, who serve one-year terms on a rotating basis.
In extreme situations, the Federal Reserve may resort to a policy named Quantitative Easing (QE). QE is the process by which the Fed substantially increases the flow of credit in a stuck financial system. It is a non-standard policy measure used during crises or when inflation is extremely low. It was the Fed’s weapon of choice during the Great Financial Crisis in 2008. It involves the Fed printing more Dollars and using them to buy high grade bonds from financial institutions. QE usually weakens the US Dollar.
Quantitative tightening (QT) is the reverse process of QE, whereby the Federal Reserve stops buying bonds from financial institutions and does not reinvest the principal from the bonds it holds maturing, to purchase new bonds. It is usually positive for the value of the US Dollar.
